- Reaction score
- 9,761
- Points
- 1,360
recceguy said:
I agree, either way the CAF is going to get boned so lets pick which STD we want and move on ;D
Election 2015
- Thread starter Edward Campbell
- Start date
- Status
I agree, either way the CAF is going to get boned so lets pick which STD we want and move on ;D
- Reaction score
- 5,959
- Points
- 1,260
For those watching the polls, Darrell Bricker, CEO of Ipsos, and co-author, with John Ibbitson of The Big Shift (which makes his suspect in progressive circles) offers these cautions on Twitter:
1. Follow along on what should be making pollsters nervous. Dealing with 2 big issues that aren't really getting discussed much:
2. First big issue is weighting to gen pop census. All do it (or say they do). But, doesn't match voting pop which has a different profile;
3. Better to weight to electorate but this changes every election. If there's big mismatch census/electorate possible source of error;
4. Second big issue is that all polls assume 100% turnout. Around 40% won't show up. VERY tough to separate these 2 groups;
5. Convention in Canada - but almost no place else - is that we report all eligible voters. Usually works, sometimes doesn't; and
6. If polls miss this time it will be because of meaningful difference between census, electorate; or big difference of turnout by party.
If I understand that, Mr Bricker is saying that most polls may be measuring too many people (mostly young people) who don't vote enough but who do favour the Liberals and NDP, and too few people (mostly older people) who favour the Conservatives. In other words the polls may be biased, by simple mathematics, towards the Liberals or, at least, against the CPC.
By how much (if at all)? If the bias is, say, 2 to 5% does that mean the race is a tie?
1. Follow along on what should be making pollsters nervous. Dealing with 2 big issues that aren't really getting discussed much:
2. First big issue is weighting to gen pop census. All do it (or say they do). But, doesn't match voting pop which has a different profile;
3. Better to weight to electorate but this changes every election. If there's big mismatch census/electorate possible source of error;
4. Second big issue is that all polls assume 100% turnout. Around 40% won't show up. VERY tough to separate these 2 groups;
5. Convention in Canada - but almost no place else - is that we report all eligible voters. Usually works, sometimes doesn't; and
6. If polls miss this time it will be because of meaningful difference between census, electorate; or big difference of turnout by party.
If I understand that, Mr Bricker is saying that most polls may be measuring too many people (mostly young people) who don't vote enough but who do favour the Liberals and NDP, and too few people (mostly older people) who favour the Conservatives. In other words the polls may be biased, by simple mathematics, towards the Liberals or, at least, against the CPC.
By how much (if at all)? If the bias is, say, 2 to 5% does that mean the race is a tie?
Halifax Tar
Army.ca Fixture
- Reaction score
- 11,141
- Points
- 1,260
What is the COA if the LPC and CPC get the same amount of seats?
- Reaction score
- 5,959
- Points
- 1,260
For those who tried the CBC's Vote Compass there is an interesting, interactive page showing Canada's most and least passionate ridings on each of the 30 questions Vote Compass used to determine where you and I sit on the political spectrum.
- Reaction score
- 5,959
- Points
- 1,260
Halifax Tar said:
The GG should follow convention ~ there is nothing else to guide him ~ and ask the sitting prime minister (Prime Minister Harper) to carry on and try to secure the confidence of the House of Commons.
If Prime Minister Harper cannot secure the House's confidence then the GG has choices, primarily: 1) call another election, hoping that we will make a clearer choice; or 2) ask M Trudeau to also try to secure the confidence of the HoC. There are a number of factors, including time between elections, which might influence the GG's choice.
- Reaction score
- 5,959
- Points
- 1,260
Jarnhamar said:
If he wins, he will be:
1. Surrounded by a pretty good, solid "front bench" of, mostly, seasoned politicians, many of whom are fiscal conservatives; and
2. Advised by a strong, smart, professional and unbiased public service, the Mandarins, who are neither afraid of nor impressed by politicians and who have the good of the country at heart and in mind.
Power may corrupt, as Lord Acton said, but it also (often? usually?) "grows" those who must wield it.
- Reaction score
- 5,959
- Points
- 1,260
This is one of those "Events, dear boy, events" that worried Prime Minister Harold MacMillan in the UK so many years ago. The questions are:
1. Is it a big enough event? and
2. Is there time for its effects to be felt?
1. Is it a big enough event? and
2. Is there time for its effects to be felt?
- Reaction score
- 18,311
- Points
- 1,280
E.R. Campbell said:
1. It could be.
2. I doubt it. Supporters are firmly entrenched to their party/leader and not the party platforms/policies - for example the ABC and "Stop Harper" campaigns - that by this point, nothing would change their views and votes. The undecided ones may turn, but I think that by this point, most people would have made up their minds as to who to vote for (or not vote for, as the case may be).
I think I've mentioned this before, but it would have been interesting if hypothetically Harper dropped out last week or this week, and a new party leader emerged. What would that have done to the other parties' campaigns (especially the NDP one)?
- Reaction score
- 5,959
- Points
- 1,260
Dimsum said:
I'm sure your almost right, but I wonder if the Conservatives and Conservative leaners who are behind the lace curtains because they decided to sit this one out, will, now, want to come out, on Monday, because the whiff of Liberal corruption is still in their nostrils from circa 2005.
- Reaction score
- 8,202
- Points
- 1,160
E.R. Campbell said:If he wins, he will be:
1. Surrounded by a pretty good, solid "front bench" of, mostly, seasoned politicians, many of whom are fiscal conservatives; and
2. Advised by a strong, smart, professional and unbiased public service, the Mandarins, who are neither afraid of nor impressed by politicians and who have the good of the country at heart and in mind.
Power may corrupt, as Lord Acton said, but it also (often? usually?) "grows" those who must wield it.
Regardless of what I read here on Tuesday I am pretty sure the pubs will still be open and we will get to do this all over again in four years time.
:cheers:
- Reaction score
- 3
- Points
- 430
Dimsum said:
[Sarcasm on] Someone like Jason Kenny perhaps! [Sarcasm off]
- Reaction score
- 21,781
- Points
- 1,360
Baden Guy said:
Someone like Peter MacKay would have taken a large chuck out of the Atlantic Red Wave. Just on math, not counting potential loss of far right to whomever?, that would likely have represented a 30-40 seat net exchange between Libs and Cons.
- Reaction score
- 3
- Points
- 430
Lumber said:
A "Progressive " Conservative party, now that would be a whole new ball game. YES!
- Reaction score
- 5,959
- Points
- 1,260
Good2Golf said:
There are only 32 seats in all of Atlantic Canada (NL: 7, NS: 11, NB 10 and PEI:4), there are 78 in Quebec, 121 in ON, 62 on the prairies (in AB, SK and MB) and 42 in BC (also 3 in the Territories). New Canada, everything West of the Ottawa River, matters more and More and MORE.
- Reaction score
- 3
- Points
- 430
Twitter
kady o'malley @kady · 34m34 minutes ago
Last minute endorsement: Vote for whoever will make the snow stop until at LEAST mid-November, Ottawans
kady o'malley @kady · 34m34 minutes ago
Last minute endorsement: Vote for whoever will make the snow stop until at LEAST mid-November, Ottawans
J
jollyjacktar
Guest
In keeping with recce's thoughts of so levity and balance, here you go Altair.... https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=c0FtRqg1L44
Brad Sallows
Army.ca Legend
- Reaction score
- 8,657
- Points
- 1,040
>If he wins, he will be: 1. Surrounded by a pretty good, solid "front bench" of, mostly, seasoned politicians, many of whom are fiscal conservatives; and...
...who were around in the "good old days" and know all of the things the LPC used to do to acquire and retain power.
The "seasoned" members of the LPC aren't necessarily an advantage to Canadians. It's worth noting that 9 years of Harper government wasn't long enough to develop a really good corruption scandal with teeth.
The important thing now is not to do an "Alberta" and overshoot the target. If the government is to be Liberal, let it be a minority. If they are to have a majority, let them earn it as the Conservatives did.
...who were around in the "good old days" and know all of the things the LPC used to do to acquire and retain power.
The "seasoned" members of the LPC aren't necessarily an advantage to Canadians. It's worth noting that 9 years of Harper government wasn't long enough to develop a really good corruption scandal with teeth.
The important thing now is not to do an "Alberta" and overshoot the target. If the government is to be Liberal, let it be a minority. If they are to have a majority, let them earn it as the Conservatives did.
- Status
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