Georgia and the Russian invasions/annexations/Lebensraum (2008 & 2015)

[a_majoor]

The birth rate inside Russia is dropping at the rate of 700,000 people a year.Probably one of the few countries in the world that is losing population down to 142m from 149m.The Russian birthrate in the former republics is high and there are 15m living outside Russia proper.This birthrate crisis may be behind Putin's militarism.

Indeed. The ethnic Russians have several problems stemming from declining birthrates. They traditionally fear the "hordes" from the East, and the rapidly growing Islamic population in the 'Stans and other parts of the "near beyond" probably have their elites awake at night too. Their economy is not very strong outside of energy and resources, so declining manpower means economic contraction as there are fewer hands on the factory floor.

I suspect a deeper motivation is grabbing what they can while they can, and the hope that they can establish a tributary system (maybe by manipulating the energy markets to force compliance from Old and New Europe) to prop up their regime, which is a deeper interpretation of the "Imperial" motivations floated in this thread. Even so, "game over" will take place in the 2030's, as Russia's population drops to about half of today's (and their EU tributaries will also be in the same boat, so the flow tribute will also be cut dramatically).

We still need to take firm action in the here and now, since waiting 25 years for the situation to resolve itself isn't an acceptable option.

 

[cameron]

Some very interesting comments by a former Russian naval officer on the capability of the Black Sea Fleet to destroy the current NATO fleet in the Black Sea in 20 minutes.  Would like to hear the opinion of the Navy.ca guys on this, wishful thinking on his part or a credible scenario?

http://www.upi.com/Top_News/2008/08/30/Russian_NATO_Black_Sea_fleet

 

[tomahawk6]

He's probably right as far as that goes.The USS McFAUL  an Aegis DDG is probably one of the most powerful NATO ships in the Black Sea.The Mount Whitney and Cutter Dallas are lightly armed. I wouldnt be surprised if there was an attack sub in the AO.

 

[JackD]

Some other news from Russia:  Russian police accused in killing of man whose website criticized authorities
TheSpec.com - News - Russian police accused in killing of man whose website criticized authorities

By Vladimir Isachenkov
MOSCOW — The owner of an independent website critical of authorities was shot and killed Sunday by police, his body dumped by the side of the road in a volatile province in southern Russia, his colleague said.

The killing of Ingushetiya.ru owner Magomed Yevloyev could incite tensions in the province of Ingushetia west of Chechnya, which has been the site of frequent attacks on police and other officials.

Police arrested Yevloyev on Sunday, taking him off a plane that had just landed in Ingushetia province near Chechnya, said the site’s deputy editor, Ruslan Khautiyev.

Police whisked Yevloyev away in a car and later dumped him on the road with a gunshot wound to the head, Khautiyev said. He said Yevloyev died in a hospital shortly afterward.

In Moscow, Investigative Committee spokesman Vladimir Markin said in a statement that Yevloyev was detained by police and died in an “incident” while being taken to police headquarters for an interrogation. Markin did not elaborate, saying that a check to clarify the circumstances of Yevloyev’s death had begun. The committee is under the Prosecutor General’s office.

Yevloyev has angered regional authorities with criticism of police treatment of civilians in the region. A court in June ordered him to shut his site on charges of spreading “extremist” statements, but it reappeared under a different name.

Khautiyev said that Yevloyev arrived in Ingushetia from Moscow on Sunday on the same plane as regional President Murat Zyazikov.
Police blocked the jet on the runway after it landed in Ingushetia’s provincial capital, Magas, entered the plane and took Yevloyev out.

Yevloyev’s death is likely to inflame passions in Ingushetia, which has been plagued by frequent raids and ambushes of federal forces and local authorities. Government critics attribute the attacks to anger fuelled by abductions, beatings, unlawful arrests and killings of suspects by government forces and local allied paramilitaries.

In June, Human Rights Watch accused Russian security forces of widespread human rights abuses in Ingushetia, saying it has documented dozens of summary and arbitrary detentions, acts of torture, enforced disappearances and extrajudicial executions. It said officials in Ingushetia persecuted peaceful Muslims and government critics, marginalized opposition groups and stifled independent media.

The New York-based rights group warned that the “dirty war” tactics against insurgents would likely further destabilize the situation in Ingushetia and beyond in the North Caucasus.

Many in Ingushetia are intensely unhappy with Zyazikov, a former KGB officer and a close ally of Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin.
An anti-government rally in Ingushetia in January drew hundreds of people who clashed with police.

Immediately after Yevloyev’s detention, his website urged Ingushetia’s residents to gather outside the headquarters of a leading opposition group.




http://www.thespec.com/News/article/427714

 

[Ex-Dragoon]

He's probably right as far as that goes.The USS McFAUL  an Aegis DDG is probably one of the most powerful NATO ships in the Black Sea.The Mount Whitney and Cutter Dallas are lightly armed. I wouldnt be surprised if there was an attack sub in the AO.

Concur with what Tomhawk has said. Except I wonder if the Straits are deep enough for a sub and is there not a treaty in existence between Turkey and Russia regarding the passage of warships through the straits as well.

 

[Retired AF Guy]

Concur with what Tomhawk has said. Except I wonder if the Straits are deep enough for a sub and is there not a treaty in existence between Turkey and Russia regarding the passage of warships through the straits as well.

The treaty you are referring to is the 1936 Montreux Convention . According to Global Security.org Turkey must be notified eight days prior before any ships can transit the straits. Aircraft carriers are not allowed to transit and submarines must transit the straits on the surface.  That means that its unlikely that the USN has any submarines in the Black Sea or we would know about it.

 

[tomahawk6]

With the tomahawk's on board the attack sub you dont have to be in the Black Sea to be able to support USN vessels operating near Georgia.

 

[CougarKing]

With the tomahawk's on board the attack sub you dont have to be in the Black Sea to be able to support USN vessels operating near Georgia.

Don't forget the USAF assets in Incirlik AFB, In Turkey. Or is that too far?   ?????

 

[tomahawk6]

There are no permanently assigned combat aircraft at Incirlik AFB. Of course some may have rotated in.

 

[Kirkhill]

Turkey is the only launch point.  This is from 18 months ago but I don't doubt that Bulgaria and Romania would be at least as willing as Turkey, possibly as eager as Ukraine and Poland, to host USAF assets.

America "Poised to Strike at Iran's Nuclear Sites" From Bases in Bulgaria and Romania
    By Gabriel Ronay
    The Sunday Herald UK

    Sunday 28 January 2007

Reports suggest that "US defensive ring" may be new front in war on terror.
    President Bush is preparing to attack Iran's nuclear facilities before the end of April and the US Air Force's new bases in Bulgaria and Romania would be used as back-up in the onslaught, according to an official report from Sofia.

    "American forces could be using their two USAF bases in Bulgaria and one at Romania's Black Sea coast to launch an attack on Iran in April," the Bulgarian news agency Novinite said.

    The American build-up along the Black Sea, coupled with the recent positioning of two US aircraft carrier battle groups off the Straits of Hormuz, appears to indicate president Bush has run out of patience with Tehran's nuclear misrepresentation and non-compliance with the UN Security Council's resolution. President Ahmeninejad of Iran has further ratcheted up tension in the region by putting on show his newly purchased state of the art Russian TOR-Ml anti-missile defence system.

This, was in the Air Force News at the same time

Air Force gains larger presence in Romania

By Tech. Sgt. Greg Bluethmann
Det. 4, Air Force News Agency

5/9/2007 - RAMSTEIN AIR BASE, Germany (AFNEWS) -- The Romanian parliament passed legislation the first week of May that now authorizes the U.S. military to use several of its bases.

 

[Ex-Dragoon]

The treaty you are referring to is the 1936 Montreux Convention . According to Global Security.org Turkey must be notified eight days prior before any ships can transit the straits. Aircraft carriers are not allowed to transit and submarines must transit the straits on the surface.  That means that its unlikely that the USN has any submarines in the Black Sea or we would know about it.

Appreciate the clarification.

 

[aesop081]

Or is that too far?   ?????

Nothing is too far !

Just remember where USAF B-2 strikes in the Balkans or Iraq originate from.

How about USAF F-111 strikes in Libya ?

 

[CougarKing]

Of course. Airborne refuelling makes that possible. Though Georgia's Coast would still be in the range of Strike Eagles if there were any based in Incirlik, without air-to-air refuelling?    ???

 

[Retired AF Guy]

With the tomahawk's on board the attack sub you dont have to be in the Black Sea to be able to support USN vessels operating near Georgia.

True, but any launch from the Med would mean the missiles would have to overfly the sovereign territory (most likely Turkey) which would be a violation of international law. Now, Turkey might give permission, on the other hand it might not.

 

[aesop081]

True, but any launch from the Med would mean the missiles would have to overfly the sovereign territory (most likely Turkey)

Theres nothing that says Turkey would know anything about it until it was over.

 

[Flanker]

Kremlin announces that South Ossetia will join 'one united Russian state'

A big provocative headliner, which has nothing common with the article content.
Where is "Kremlin announces"?
"Free press" is still free to write any lie.

 

[Flanker]

Some other news from Russia:  Russian police accused in killing of man whose website criticized authorities

JackD, in order to be consistent with the forum rules, I would suggest you post all offtopics like this in a new separate thread ... something like "My Russofobia and Me" ... 

 

[George Wallace]

JackD, in order to be consistent with the forum rules, I would suggest you post all offtopics like this in a new separate thread ... something like "My Russofobia and Me" ... 

What's the matter Flanker?  Someone posting about the problems in the Caucasus that disagrees with your views, and they should post it elsewhere?  Perhaps it is you who should create a new topic:  "My Love for my Motherland". 

 

[Flanker]

What's the matter Flanker?

I would appreciate, if someone could explain what last tribal skimishes in Ingushetia have to do with Russian police, Russian politics and in particular with the war in Ossetia.  :
I do not see any link other than the same old refrain "all is bad in Russia" the author repeats all over the forum.

 

[JackD]

Actually it is about the Caucasus... Free speech, means it seems, I must tolerate your opinions, but you not mine.... nor the articles i find and post here in order to keep this debate alive -  articles by the way, I do not comment upon positively or negatively. As I am a teacher, and am used to dealing with children, i will refrain from commentary.