Lebanon (Superthread)

[Cdn Blackshirt]

Mild Winners:
Israel
Hezbollah

Big Losers:
Iran
Moderate Lebanese (primarly Christian and Druze)


Matthew. 

 

[Michael OLeary]

For what it's worth:

DAILY POLL

Canada’s official policy classifies Hezbollah as a terrorist organization. In light of its recent military, humanitarian and political campaigns, do you agree Hezbollah is a terrorist group?

Yes - 87.05 %
No - 12.95 %

http://www.canada.com/globaltv/ontario/index.html

 

[tomahawk6]

Story on how the war affected Kiryat Shmona. Some great photos. The katyusha rocket as a terror weapon.

http://www.michaeltotten.com/archives/001240.html

 

[Bruce Monkhouse]

  http://cnews.canoe.ca/CNEWS/Canada/2006/08/18/1764247-cp.html

ANTIGONISH, N.S. (CP) - Canada won't send any troops or ships to help enforce the United Nations-sponsored ceasefire in Lebanon, says Foreign Affairs Minister Peter MacKay.
MacKay says Canada's defence personnel are committed to Afghanistan.

The cabinet minister made the comments during an announcement of funding for a study centre at St. Francis Xavier University in Antigonish.
Alan Baker, Israel's ambassador to Canada, has suggested Canada could contribute patrol ships to a beefed-up UN presence in southern Lebanon.

The UN appealed to European countries on Friday to contribute to an expanded peacekeeping force that would have a balance of European and Muslim troops so that Israel and Lebanon will view it as legitimate.
Italy endorsed sending troops to Lebanon but did not commit itself to specific numbers.
Finland decided to send up to 250 peacekeepers to Lebanon, but said they would not be deployed until November.

"There's no indication we'll be sending military troops or assets into the region," MacKay said during an interview.
"We're doing important work in Afghanistan, and we're doing important work helping stabilize a region such as Haiti."

At a meeting of 49 nations Thursday, the only countries to offer mechanized infantry battalions, which will be the front line of the expanded force, were three predominantly Muslim countries - Bangladesh, Indonesia and Malaysia - and Nepal, which is predominantly Hindu.

 

[Kat Stevens]

Nepal would be the answer, neither Jew nor Muslim.  Stick six battalions of Gorkhas between the two sides, brief everyone on the rules, and dare either side to start some shyte.

 

[paracowboy]

Nepal would be the answer, neither Jew nor Muslim. 

in die-hard Islamic fanatic eyes, a Hindu is even worse than a Christian or Jew. Whereas Christians & Jews are at least People of the Book, Hindus and Buddhists are flat-out pagans and idolators.

 

[Kat Stevens]

True, but I was looking at it from a more "neutrality of the peace enforcers"  kind of thing.  I would think that Hez would learn pretty quick that those pagans are not afraid to lay the smackdown, with a vengeance.

 

[tomahawk6]

Hizbollah really doesnt want UN troops in there. The Lebanese Army will be plenty of cover for them. If the Izzies resume offensive operations the LA will surrender faster than you can say Oprah.

 

[zipperhead_cop]

Hizbollah really doesnt want UN troops in there. The Lebanese Army will be plenty of cover for them. If the Izzies resume offensive operations the LA will surrender faster than you can say Oprah.

Surrender?  Hell, they are probably drawing their range cards for them.  "Ah, Master Hizbollah, please, come in!  Here is a report on Israeli school bus traffic, and my man Hassim has come up with a way to make the Katusha's more accurate.  Please enjoy your stay at our position.  If you need anything, just ring the little bell and we will come running".  :

 

[ab9321]

Interesting to see which side is being accused of breaking the truce. ;D

 

[vonGarvin]

The UN showed recently which side it de facto supports.  After Israel's raid on a suspected Hezbollah arms site on the border, UN Secretary General Kofi Annan said that Israel was to blame for violating the cease fire (source: my radio news this evening).  He had NOTHING to go on other that unconfirmed news reports and perhaps his prejudice.  I don't know which side was to "blame", but I suspect that Israel did indeed go after an arms shipment, which in itself is a violation of the terms of the agreement.

 

[tomahawk6]

I dont think anyone seriously expects this ceasefire to hold. Hizbollah still has the Israeli soldiers they kidnapped. Until that issue is settled this is merely a respite.

 

[paracowboy]

I dont think anyone seriously expects this ceasefire to hold. Hizbollah still has the Israeli soldiers they kidnapped. Until that issue is settled this is merely a respite.

rather:

I don't think anyone seriously expects this ceasefire to hold. Hizbollah still has the Israeli soldiers they kidnapped. Israel still exists. Until that issue is settled this is merely a respite.

 

[GAP]

Quote
I don't think anyone seriously expects this ceasefire to hold. Hizbollah still has the Israeli soldiers they kidnapped. Israel still exists. Until that  issue is settled this is merely a respite.

We can play around with the words, but that is essentially it.

 

[TCBF]

Isreal may have fallen into a dungheap, but may yet come up smelling like a rose, note:

1.  They lost.  This dissappointed the Isreali people as well as most of the west and the  moderate Arab states, all of whom would LOVE to sea the Med stained red with the offal of the Hezbollah.  This means a change for the better  - rather sooner than later - of leadership in the top Isreali political and military ranks.  

2.  The UN is coming to put in the 'fix'.  Since the UN can't organize a one man rush to a two hole outhouse, they will be  again  seen for the anti-western fascists they really are.  Pick a nice tall tree in Central Park, some rope, and add Kofi Annan:  some assembly required.  

3.  As this 'Planetary Caliphate' versus western civilization confict heats up, our friends and enemies - foreign and domestic - are 'self-identifying'.  This will save us a lot of trouble later on.

4.  The 'moderates' are falling off everyone's bandwagons.  Good.  Makes for clearer fields of fire (politically speaking).

 

[Scoobie Newbie]

I agree with point 1.  This "defeat" will hopefully show the Israel politicians and military brass what went right and what went wrong.  More money and training will certainly go into what they do and the complacency should be all but gone.

 

[TCBF]

Conrad Black, in today's National Post, wrote something about the Isreali troops possibly  feeling that the issue might be worth killing for, but not worth dying for.  Their opposition, on the other hand, are more than willing to die for the place and the cause. 

TCBF's definition of a Fanatic:  Someone who has just out-fought us.

 

[zipperhead_cop]

4.  The 'moderates' are falling off everyone's bandwagons.  Good.  Makes for clearer fields of fire (politically speaking).

"It is always better to have an honest enemy than a dishonest friend".  I think I heard that on Star Trek once, but I always liked that quote.

 

[a_majoor]

A look at some of the tactical and military points scored by Isreal, but in the strategic realm I would say Israel came off second best in the 4GW arena. You notice that although Hisbollah refuses to follow the cease fire agreement, it is Israel that is being condemmed for eliminating a forbidden weapons cache (rather than praised for implimenting the cease fire provisions).
some of the claims made here are subject to verification.

http://gayandright.blogspot.com/2006/08/how-israel-won-war.html

How Israel Won the War....

An excellent piece in the Ottawa Citizen by Barry Rubin.

If you don't know that Israel won the recent war with Hezbollah it's because you haven't heard the behind-the-scenes story of the fighting.

A good place to start is to ask why, despite many televised threats from Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah, Hezbollah did not hit Tel Aviv. The answer is that using a combination of intelligence and technical means, Israel identified the location of Hezbollah's longer-range missiles and knocked them out with amazing speed and efficiency. (unverified claim)

About 90 per cent of them were destroyed quickly in the war. Nasrallah could not deliver on what he considered to be his ultimate weapon.

An equally remarkable success, despite being taken for granted, is Israel's domination of the air. More plane and helicopter combat flights were flown than in any previous war by Israel, yet only one helicopter was shot down.

This was not due to Hezbollah lacking advanced anti-aircraft systems. In fact, they had the best light equipment available. Highly secret Israeli counter-measures, however, ensured that every anti-aircraft missile missed. Throughout the war, Israel retained full air superiority, which meant that its planes could go anywhere in Lebanon and hit any target.(Unverified, but probable)

While Hezbollah lost the war militarily, it did score significant victories in terms of public relations. One of the biggest hoaxes of modern media history was how Hezbollah manipulated the media. Photographs were falsified by those fooled by or aiding Hezbollah. All Lebanese casualty figures came from the Lebanese government, of which Hezbollah is part, and these never admitted that anyone killed was a Hezbollah gunmen or that any target hit was a military one. (Quite true, public opinion is the centre of gravity for 4GW)

Yet Israel has firm evidence that around 450 Hezbollah soldiers were killed -- more than half the purported civilian death toll -- and large numbers of Hezbollah facilities and arms dumps were destroyed. This is roughly 20 per cent of Hezbollah's best soldiers. Proportionate to forces in the field, Hezbollah's death toll alone was more than 30 times higher than Israel's. (unverified)

One of Israel's most impressive achievements, which has still not been fully comprehended, was its ability to hit incoming shipments of arms from Syria. In many cases, trucks were hit within moments of crossing the Syria-Lebanon border. Hezbollah was using up munitions far faster than they were coming in. If the war had not ended when it did, they would have suffered an even more visibly humiliating defeat. (Probable)

Another factor that has not yet registered is the deaths of high-ranking Hezbollah officials, several of whom are still missing, due to Israeli attacks on their headquarters and hiding places. One known name is Sajed Dawayer, head of Hezbollah's special forces. At one point, Mr. Nasrallah threatened to attack Tel Aviv if Israel struck at central Beirut. But why central Beirut when Hezbollah's followers live in south Beirut? Presumably, he was hiding in the centre of the city. (Probable, but unverified)

But, please read the whole thing...

 

[Shec]

I agree with point 1.  This "defeat" will hopefully show the Israel politicians and military brass what went right and what went wrong.  More money and training will certainly go into what they do and the complacency should be all but gone.

The big lesson the IDF learned was that cutting back on an army's logistics tail is not the way to respond to defense budget cuts.    Too many reservists reporting to depot only to discover that their equipment stocks had been pillaged and too many understrength supply and tranport echelons to keep the combat units in bullets, beans, and POL and not enough of anything to allow for a fuller mobilization make for a lot of p.o.'ed citizen soldiers and their mothers.    Means Olmert is gone along with Defence Minister Perez and probably Rametkal (ie. CDS) Halutz.  Probably won't be seeing another air force Rametkal for a while either - it'll be back to the fundamentals of field force organization.