Moving to this thread to not sidebar to much from Tariff talk.
Willing to wait and assess for myself how relevant the last ten years are to what is on offer now.
A. A lot of ink was spilled on how autocratic JT was, the extent to which he was the LPC, how much power had been concentrated. That knife cuts both ways- and enables a hard pivot if it's enacted at the top. On this side of the fence- we saw how much the CPC changed going from O'Toole to Poilievre. New leader, (potentially) new party and direction.
B. On the P's of Poilievre
- Personality- he has crafted a patently dislikable (not the same as unlikeable) persona, far from stateman like, and while he is certainly not Trump, he certainly has borrowed some of his messaging both in style and substance, which further contributes to rubbing a lot of Canadians the wrong way
- Policy/Platform- he's early 00's Reformer and devout Flanagan school acolyte, whose views by his own admission (boast actually) haven't changed since undergrad. So he's unflinchingly and unwaveringly committed to an ideology and vision that while that's while neither "alt-right" nor "far-right", is as far right as you can go in the mainstream of the Canadian Overton window.
So the CPC is running an un-flexible and dislikeable leader, whose ideas and vision had their collective lunch eaten by a centre left version of the LPC 20 years ago before a tent broadening and shift centre with the PC merger. That's not a recipe for a win under any normal circumstance.
C. But- Pierre Poilievre is the farthest thing from a political idiot. This election wasn't set to be normal circumstances. After 9 years under very left wing malignant narcissist whose policy gaffe's were being compounded by global headwinds, whose scandals wrote their own attack adds? Canada is hungry for change, and specifically for a shift right/to the centre. This was an election Poilievre could win. Canadians didn't have to like him or really buy into his ideology- he just had to be the only viable option to take them in the general direction they wanted- away from Trudeauism.
D. But, but- he's not going to get that election now. What we have shaping up isn't: Hard right Attack dog vs hard left, moist speaking punching bag with zero economic credibility wearing all of Canadians' difficulties from the last 4 years, it's now: hard right attack dog vs left/centre left (as yet undetermined) congenial statesman with economic credibility, and a potentially clean slate. Both options (potentially) represent change. That's a much harder fight to win man vs. man, ideology vs. ideology.
E. We have seen the early indications of B and D. bare out in the last few weeks. Poilievre's support evaporated at the mere prospect of another viable option to bring us back rightward / that wasn't Trudeau.
which brings us to
F. The CPC is 100% all in on convincing people that the election is that of C. rather than D. that Carney is a continuation of Trudeau rather than a shift back right to the centre-left. They need that to be believed, whether it is true or not- and as such, I'm not going to take them at their word. Especially with them having demonstrated complete willingness to lie in significant ways about it- such as the nature of the BAM HQ "move"