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Military Budget predictions

you are in error once again....

Any ship can be used to resupply another it does not make it an AOR...because we have a flight deck and carry and air craft does that make us an air craft carrier....nope.

Merchant ships are built to mercantile standards while most warships and auxillaries (yes there are exceptions) are built to withstand battle conditions...i.e water tight bulkheads (more of) and more hose stations. Most mercantile ships would not survive the conditions that a warship will so yes there is quite a big difference.


Tico's generally embark 60 SM2s
 
The government will give the military all it needs. The Conservative government will do what it must to serve Canadians.
 
bbbb said:
The government will give the military all it needs. The Conservative government will do what it must to serve Canadians.

Thanks for setting the record straight, now I can sleep at night again...  ::)
 
bbbb said:
The government will give the military all it needs. The Conservative government will do what it must to serve Canadians.

I can hardly wait until you read 4th year history.

Sorry; too hard to resist.
 
"The government will give the military all it needs. The Conservative government will do what it must to serve Canadians."


LMFAO....oh...that's priceless . I hope you can keep that extremely positive attitude thru your whole career.
 
Some useful thoughts from Douglas Bland,  Professor and Chair of the Defence Management Studies Program at the School of Policy Studies, Queen's University:
http://server09.densan.ca/archivenews/060418/npt/060418ch.htm?source=somnia

"Mobilizing defence capabilities in perilous times is a lost art in Canada. It is, however, an art the government must restore promptly if Prime Minister Stephen Harper is to achieve the national defence objective of a stronger military, as promised in the Throne Speech. Without significant reforms to defence management procedures, much money could be wasted, and Mr. Harper's goal of building a better, more capable military will likely fail.

Canada's last great defence mobilization effort began in 1950, at the beginning of the Cold War. In less than seven years, Canadian governments transformed the then tiny 30,000-man, poorly equipped armed forces into a 120,000-person, "high-tech" combat force with thousands of troops deployed in Europe, in the Atlantic, in North America and on peacekeeping missions in the Middle East and elsewhere. It was an impressive accomplishment made possible mainly because Ottawa was filled with scores of politicians and bureaucrats who had learned to manage wartime policies and to produce military capabilities quickly during the Second World War.

In 1993, Jean Chretien's government assumed that the "demand for armed forces" would decline, and he allowed the Canadian Forces to wither away. Significantly, as national defence and realistic attention to foreign policy dropped off the Cabinet table, public service skills and attention in these areas wasted away, as well. When Paul Martin became prime minister, he realized suddenly that the nation would soon become a country without armed forces or a say on the international stage. His plan to redress this crisis, nevertheless, was doomed by Ottawa's needlessly complex system of competing departmental policies, regulations, procedures and responsibilities for the production of defence capabilities.

General Rick Hillier, Canada's Chief of Defence, was in Toronto last Tuesday, where he laid out today's crisis starkly: "We need an acquisition process... that can deliver [major new equipment] in time. Not in 10 years or five years - [that's] not good enough." Unfortunately for the Canadian Forces and for Prime Minister Harper, there are very few experienced leaders in Ottawa today who could shape such a national mobilization strategy, and there is no credible system to manage such a strategy if one were discovered.

This largely explains the government-wide confusion in critical areas of defence procurement, personnel management, budgeting, defence industrial strategies and military base infrastructure. Overtop this muddle sits a parliament, suddenly eager to debate Canada's national defence, but ill-structured even to begin to do so in any meaningful way.

Three concerted, Cabinet-led initiatives must urgently be set in motion to change this.

- First, the Prime Minister should direct senior officials to present in the next months a comprehensive whole-government plan to rebuild and transform the Canadian Forces within the next five years. He should make plain that any policies, bureaucratic procedures or regulations that might impede this project are to be amended, modernized or discarded.

- Second, he should place the direction and implementation of this national plan in the hands of a single minister.

- Finally, the Prime Minister should engage Parliament in this (one would hope) non-partisan national effort to garner public support for a rapid rebuilding of the Canadian Forces. To this end, the Cabinet should convene a senior Cabinet committee on defence production chaired by the prime minster. The House of Commons should call together a well-funded committee, separate from the already over-tasked Standing Committee on National Defence, to oversee the rebuilding program. The Prime Minister might encourage the Senate Committee on National Security and Defence to join in this responsibility.

Prime Minister Harper expressed an essential truth when, surrounded by the boots on the ground in Afghanistan, he declared that Canada cannot play a meaningful role in our own interest or in aid of the international community "from the bleachers." The race now is between an armed force in steady decline and General Hillier's vision of an armed force "effective ... relevant ... and responsive" to a predictably violent world.

But let there be no doubt. The race will be lost if sensible military reforms remain burdened with the present government-wide, unresponsive system of defence management. Canada in the 1950s built from very feeble roots an effective, relevant and responsive military force in under seven years. Surely we can do the same or even better in these perilous times."

The proof  of the pudding will be in the budget's reading.  O'Connor as both defence critic and minister does not make me overly optimistic.

Mark
Ottawa
 
What gets me, if a large ticket item is needed for the military it takes years if not decades to get, but if a PM wants  Business Jets it gets fast tracked.    The government has ran the military the way my brother runs his car,  expect it to run on gas alone and drag his feet when he should be doing regular maintenance, forget about it for 60k then act surprised at the cost to fix the car.
 
bbbb said:
The government will give the military all it needs. The Conservative government will do what it must to serve Canadians.

feewww........I was geting eorried there for a while bu now, thanks to you, i can rest easy.  To think that for the last 13 years i beleived that the government had no clue what the CF needed.....
 
bbbb said:
The government will give the military all it needs. The Conservative government will do what it must to serve Canadians.
Thank you bbbb... after 23 years in the Service, I can finally expect to see this happen !!!  ::)
 
[deleted by author, who felt guilt at being unnecessarily cruel to a harmless 3rd-year critter]

yes, I too was mocking bbbb  ;)
 
Would I be safe in assuming that if the current CF (aka you guys) had a wish list, that it would be to purchase mostly what the American Military is using? I asked my old man this same question who's been 811 for 28 years and he says it will never happen, but hes just getting old and grumpy with age.
 
Inspir said:
Would I be safe in assuming that if the current CF (aka you guys) had a wish list

I have a wish list, it remains to be seen if the new government will shell out for 24" chrome rims for the G-Wagon though...  :D

 
It appears the CF may be reviewing its OWN wish list....

Shared in accordance with the "fair dealing" provisions, Section 29, of the Copyright Act (http://www.cb-cda.gc.ca/info/act-e.html#rid-33409)

LIBERAL PROMISES PUT ON ICE
Stephanie Rubec, Ottawa Sun, 20 Apr 06, p. 23

''The military is set to scrap major equipment purchases announced by the former Liberal government.

The Canadian Forces, with the blessing of the governing Tories, is reviewing its shopping list to find extra funds to pay for expensive Tory priorities.

A top officer involved in the review said Prime Minister Stephen Harper's military spending priorities, like icebreakers for Canada's North, are proving much more costly than the Tories expected.

During the election campaign, Harper promised Canadian shipyards would build military icebreakers.

But the senior officer said Canadian shipyards lack the experience to build them, while the ice's thickness requires mammoth ships with a hefty price tag.

'POSITIVE ENERGY'

The officer said brass see the change in government as a chance to sink questionable Liberal-championed projects.

"There's a lot of positive energy from the Conservatives," the officer said, adding the PM's trip to Afghanistan last month showed he's behind the military.

A Defence Department official said the military's wish-list mirrors most Tory priorities, beginning with the replacement of Canada's oldest Hercules aircraft.

The senior official said the military is studying buying six Boeing C-17 planes, with an eye to using the youngest Canadian Hercs for another five years.

That would scrap the Liberal promise to spend $5 billion on the newest generation of Hercules planes. ''

 
Thank goodness the Navy icebreakers may be sunk--now it only the Coast Guard can get new ones.

"...with an eye to using the youngest Canadian Hercs for another five years."  Sure opens the door for the A-400M.

Meanwhile what about the fixed-wing SAR aircraft replacement and heavy/medium (which is accurate?) helicopters?

Even if six (!) C-17s are acquired rapidly what will replace the CC-130Es used for SAR?

In a paranoid moment I see an eventual fleet of Bombardier Q Series for SAR and a limited tactical transport role (much less effective than either the C-27J or C-295), and the remaining transports being C-17s and A-400Ms.

An honest question: would that make sense?

Mark
Ottawa
 
It appears the CF may be reviewing its OWN wish list....

MGen (now LGen) Leslie has been doing this for some time...  Make me wonder how much of a "CF's" wish list it really was....  ^-^
 
Teddy Ruxpin said:
MGen (now LGen) Leslie has been doing this for some time...  Make me wonder how much of a "CF's" wish list it really was....  ^-^

Any chance MGS/MMEV might die a quick and painless death?


Matthew.  :salute:
 
From the Globe, April 21, "Hillier's aircraft plan in doubt".  Looks like C-17s a done deal (and O'Connor was complaining in opposition about writing specs to favour the C-130J!) and Herc replacement will be well down the road.  And I still worry about Bombardier and fixed-wing SAR--see final para.
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/story/LAC.20060421.PLANES21/TPStory/National

Excerpts:

'The Harper government is strongly considering buying up to six Boeing C-17 long-range military transport planes at a cost of more than $1.2-billion [note: this is ex-factory price, not life-cycle as is given below for a C-130J buy--talk about skewing the figures to low-ball], a move that would overturn the plans of both the previous Liberal government and the Chief of the Defence Staff, General Rick Hillier.

The purchase, which defence industry sources say could be announced in the coming federal budget...

It would also likely rule out, for the time being, Gen. Hillier's proposal -- announced in the dying days of the previous Liberal government -- to spend $4.6-billion on 16 short-haul tactical transport planes, most likely Lockheed Martin C-130Js.

"If they go with six [C-17s], that means they'll delay tactical lift," a source close to the Defence Department said. "Hillier will react to that."..

Sources say the government would announce it plans to buy a fixed number of strategic aircraft by a certain date, possibly as early as a year from now.

The requirements would state that the aircraft must also have tactical or short-haul capability, which the C-17 does, to ease pressure on the badly outdated Hercules fleet.

That requirement would rule out the Russian-built Antonov, which the Canadian military has rented to deploy its Disaster Assistance Response Team.

Unlike the C-17, which can land on rough runways as short as 900 metres, the Antonov requires 3,000 metres of paved strip...

Senior officials in the Defence Department met last week to discuss procurement priorities, known internally as the defence capabilities plan, sources familiar with the meeting say.

During the meeting, department officials were told the new government intends to buy strategic lift, new fixed-wing search-and-rescue craft, support ships and helicopters -- in that order...'

Mark
Ottawa
 
I wish they would begin using both figures for procurement press releases and public discussions at all times:
  • The Ex-Factory Cost
  • The Life-Cycle Cost

I think the Life-Cycle Cost is good for planning purposes but the sticker shock it causing the general public is horribly negative.

Imagine a car salesman offering someone a Honda Civic with a Life-Cycle cost of $65,000 for 20 years.

It's just bad optics management....


Matthew.    ???
 
Here is an interesting article from today’s National Post, reproduced here under the Fair Dealings provisions of the Copyright Act:

http://www.canada.com/nationalpost/news/story.html?id=0114c58b-99b7-4e2c-972b-04fc7dab37cb
Armed icebreakers too costly, military says
Arctic plans: Officers view Tory election promises as unworkable

David ********

CanWest News Service

Tuesday, May 23, 2006

OTTAWA - Worried about the excessive cost of the Conservative government's plan to build armed icebreakers for the Arctic, military officials are trying to convince Defence Minister Gordon O'Connor to instead use less expensive hovercraft or small patrol boats to monitor the entrances to northern waterways.

Resistance is building inside the Defence Department toward some of the Conservatives' military policies, particularly those involving the Arctic, as well as the stationing of a new rapid reaction army battalion in Goose Bay, Nfld.

Officers view some of the government's election promises as unworkable or too costly and in some cases have proposed alternatives. For example, in regards to Mr. O'Connor's multi-billion- dollar plan to purchase armed icebreakers, the navy has countered with suggestions a small fleet of hovercraft or a new class of ice-capable patrol ships might be a less expensive option. The hovercraft could be stationed in the Arctic while the ice-capable vessels could patrol near key entrance ways to northern waters, officers said.

They noted Mr. O'Connor appears receptive to the idea.

The army also has concerns about the Conservative plan to station troops in Goose Bay. The army is focused entirely on its ongoing mission in Afghanistan and there are questions about where troops for new army units at Goose Bay and other locations would come from.

The Canadian Forces' recruiting system is barely keeping pace with attrition, potentially putting into jeopardy plans to expand the size of the military, Auditor-General Sheila Fraser warned in her latest report.

Mr. O'Connor's office did not provide comment on the status of the government's Arctic plans. But the Minister hinted at a May 8 Senate defence committee hearing that the Harper government might be open to altering some of its proposals.

"I have the staff working on Arctic options now," he said. "We may, in the future, end up with a mix of icebreaker and hovercraft or something like that ... or maybe there is another way to do it."

Mr. O'Connor added that "our vision for the North and sovereignty for the North is at the heart of our [defence] policy."

But University of Calgary defence analyst Rob Huebert said the military sees its role as mainly conducting overseas operations such as in Afghanistan. The navy, he noted, is worried about diverting financial resources to build the icebreakers the Conservatives promised in the last election.

"And anything that is viewed as taking away from the army's overseas capability is seen as a black hole," Mr. Huebert said.

He said Mr. O'Connor is going to "have a huge battle on his hands" in moving forward significant parts of the government's Arctic agenda, particularly with the Afghanistan mission scheduled to continue until 2009. At the same time there is a pressing need to re-equip the military with billions of dollars of modern gear.

A defence think-tank last week released figures that Canada's commitment to Afghanistan since late 2001 has so far cost more than $4-billion.

But Mr. Huebert said if the Harper government is serious about protecting Canadian sovereignty in the North it could do the job with a combined force of military personnel, RCMP and members of the coast guard. He noted the coast guard is recognized as one of the most skilled in the world when it comes to ice-breaking operations but various federal governments have severely cut that organization's funding.

International law professor Michael Byers, who supports a greater government presence in the Arctic, said the military has never been keen on northern missions. Mr. O'Connor can expect to meet a lot of opposition from the defence leadership on his Arctic agenda, he added.

"The capacity of the general officers to slow things down, to flood the agenda with alternatives, is pretty extraordinary," said Mr. Byers, of the University of British Columbia. "They will try to 'Yes minister' him."

He agreed new icebreakers are needed but also said they should be operated by the coast guard.
David Rudd, president of the Canadian Institute of Strategic Studies, said the military leadership is also concerned about the government's plans to station a rapid response battalion in Goose Bay and other units in places like Comox, B.C. He noted there is "absolutely no military reason to station troops in Goose Bay."

Mr. Rudd said some officers have suggested increasing reserve units in Goose Bay and other locations to deal with the Harper government's election promise.

© National Post 2006

It appears that the defence staff has recovered from the election and the Afghanistan vote and is preparing for a Tory majority.

Rob Huebert (University of Calgary) has it about right, I think.  It’s not that we could not make excellent use of ice-breakers (even with global warming).  The question is: out of which budget?  In my personal opinion sovereignty protection is best done by a constabulary force backed up by a visible and visibly capable military.  In addition, also my personal opinion , only two agencies of government should have ‘heavy’ weapons (anything above small arms/light machine guns): the Canadian Forces and the Royal Canadian Mounted Police.  Thus, for me (as Jean Chrétien might have said), armed ice-breakers would belong to the Marine Division of the RCMP (maybe along with very fast armed corvettes for counter-smuggling and sovereignty patrols in ice-free waters).


As someone else commented in a weekend Op-Ed piece in one of the dailies, Stpehen Harper is an economist, the first non-lawyer to lead our government since Mike Pearson in the ‘60s.  He thinks like an economist; he is concerned about choices, trades and outcomes.  He may see troops, of some sort, in Comox and Goose Bay and suitable ‘trades’ for a kept promise and a majority government.  That being the case he (through O'Connor) might tell Hillier and company to suck it up and soldier on, after they put something in Comox and Goose Bay.
 
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