North Korea (Superthread)

[1feral1]

I thought I was gonig to get 'supermarionation' a la Team America  :nod:

Good link though.

Cheers,

OWDU

 

[tomahawk6]

The goal of the US and its allies should be to sell unification to the Chinese. A unified Korea could be good for the PRC as well as the region. Its going to happen eventually, either through war or internal meltdown neither of which would be good for the Chinese. Unification by the ROk would be extremely expensive and an internal security nightmare with the communist infrastructure.

Short of peaceful unification,the ROK and its UN allies need to be ready for war. The North has only one real wartime scenario - a massive invasion thrust that captures Seoul. Some experts think that if this scenario played out the North would then negotiate a cessation of hostilities. IMO if they embarked on this plan they would go all out to subjugate the south. If they could capture Seoul they would be hard to stop until you get to the Pusan region [the old Pusan Perimeter]. I think the ROK ground forces supported by the USAF/USN would be enough to stop an invasion - but would they have the stones to drive on Pyongyang ? Unless the North used WMD I dont see that happening.

 

[Marlowe]

The goal of the US and its allies should be to sell unification to the Chinese. A unified Korea could be good for the PRC as well as the region. Its going to happen eventually, either through war or internal meltdown neither of which would be good for the Chinese. Unification by the ROk would be extremely expensive and an internal security nightmare with the communist infrastructure.

In my opinion, the only way one could get China on board with reunification is for it to be under North Korea. China does not want a strong US ally right on its border. That's part of the reason why China allows NKor to get away with so much crazy stuff--NKor is a buffer state.

That and they fear--with good reason--the flood of refugees across their border a destabilized or destroyed NKor would initiate.

Short of peaceful unification,the ROK and its UN allies need to be ready for war. The North has only one real wartime scenario - a massive invasion thrust that captures Seoul. Some experts think that if this scenario played out the North would then negotiate a cessation of hostilities. IMO if they embarked on this plan they would go all out to subjugate the south. If they could capture Seoul they would be hard to stop until you get to the Pusan region [the old Pusan Perimeter]. I think the ROK ground forces supported by the USAF/USN would be enough to stop an invasion - but would they have the stones to drive on Pyongyang ? Unless the North used WMD I dont see that happening.

In 1950, it took a fully equipped and mobile NKor just over a month to make it to Pusan. That was with a SKor army in disarray (or actively defecting) and a US army ill-prepared.

Now? You have a very highly trained and motivated SKor army, a massive number of reserves (every fit male is supposed to do national service and then gets a weekend of training every month), and a very prepared US army, as well as the JDF that would be MORE than willing to jump in the fight. NKor, on the other hand, now has the ill-motivated, poorly equipped force which may not even have enough fuel to drive to Pusan.

I honestly don't think JKI is totally loony. I don't think he nor any of his generals actually believe they can win a war against SKor without the full and unrestricted participation of China. And I'm pretty sure China has been clear that this ain't gonna happen.

 

[sean m]

Probably not possible but does anyone does anyone have any information on how the North Korean people view their government

 

[Edward Campbell]

As far as I can read it's public policy: China wants a unified Korea but it must, specifically, exclude the USA and Japan. I think they would happy with a 'free,' democratic and resolutely capitalist (e.g. Seoul led) Korea but they will not accept any measurable foreign (other than Chinese) presence there.

 

[CougarKing]

In my opinion, the only way one could get China on board with reunification is for it to be under North Korea. China does not want a strong US ally right on its border. That's part of the reason why China allows NKor to get away with so much crazy stuff--NKor is a buffer state.

In spite of years of cooperation and alliance between S.Korea and the US, why must we automatically assume that a united Korea under an ROK government will automatically remain a US ally? Of course there will be the initial years of infrastructure and economic rebuilding after the reunification that will see the ROK rely on the assistance of the US and other neighbours, but why should we assume that later down the road, the ROK won't follow independent foreign policy interests not necessarily aligned with the US (or even China later on)? Does the word "Finlandization" ring a bell?

Why should a unified Korea necessarily want to keep US troops on its soil if the North Korean threat is gone and it has strong economic links with mainland China?

And is anyone not going to comment on this other post exploring the possibility of China invading North Korea? 

 

[GAP]

If I remember some of my history right....Korea, the whole Korea, has always had a strong propensity for being aggressive, domineering to it's neighbours....put the whole Korea together again, it may very well go back to its' ways of old....

 

[VIChris]

Should we see a united Korea, I can't seem them becoming an aggressive force anytime soon. I can't help but think they'd be facing at least a decade of serious social work trying to integrate a brainwashed populace into South Korean ways. The North may not be as detached as that, but a lot of what I've seen and read suggests their grasp on how the rest of the world works is pretty weak.  Furthermore, as has been mentioned elsewhere in this thread, the infrastructure in NK appears to be royally hooped. Again, years of work to bring the country around before a united Korea would look at aggression.

Just my  :2c:

 

[dapaterson]

And once he industrious Western ally successfully integrates their former communist brothers and sisters, they'll suddenly find themselves on the hook to bail out their lazy, corrupt neighbours, if recent history is any indication.

 

[2010newbie]

Probably not possible but does anyone does anyone have any information on how the North Korean people view their government

The quote below is from http://www.associatedcontent.com/article/735397/inside_north_korea_national_geographic.html

It is a review of a documentary called Inside North Korea http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p7RtFZCpyv0&feature=related (watch between 3:40 to 5:40 to see the first example of the praise).

In fact, every one of the over 1000 patients who had cataract surgery documented in Inside North Korea lifted their hands and gave shouting thanks and praise to a large wall print of their fearless leader after the completion of their operation.

The documentary was very good and it looks like it is posted on YouTube in multiple parts. Whether or not the people of North Korea or "Democratic People's Republic of Korea" as Kim Jong Il likes to call it, would actually praise him like this in private or it is just a show for the cameras, who knows. You do see one of the "minders" take great offense to one of the camera men when he laid down in front of a statue of Kim to take a picture. The :minder" told him he would be deported the next day for disrespecting their great General. His offense seemed genuine enough.

 

[Colin Parkinson]

My hope is that the Chinese have set up contacts with senior leadership there to know instantly what is about to happen and if things are about to go over the edge, advise their chosen few to decapitate the Kim leadership and his closest followers. Of course this will happen behind closed door and with certain troop movements to secure critical nodes. The Public would be advised that the “Dear Leader” has died of natural causes and a Month of Mourning is imposed. Meanwhile police and army units loyal to the new leadership dispose of the remnants of the old guard. The new leadership will receive public blessing from China, likely China will quietly ensure that the US,SOK and Japan are aware who the new leaders are working for. This allows the world to open it’s door to NK and start correcting the worst of the damages. At best NK moves up to a status near Burma’s in regards to living conditions and human right. It will take at least a generation to undo the worst of the Dear Leaders policies.
I also have no doubt that Kim has thought of this scenario and works hard to prevent to much Chinese influence in his senior leadership. Let us hope the senior commanders that receive orders to start a full blown war are sympathetic to the Chinese and will ignore those orders. A lightening fast Invasion by China assisted or least unopposed by NK Generals would be the best scenario for all concerned. 

 

[sean m]

The most difficult situation is trying to change a peolpe's way of life when they do not want it to change. You cannot force change on people, it has to come with their support. There would need to be thorough intel on this, I doubt how easy it would be to get in there. It would be a good idea to communicate with organizations in North Korea, which support democratic and human rights principles in the country, maybe get their viewpoint on how they see things inside there.

The quote below is from http://www.associatedcontent.com/article/735397/inside_north_korea_national_geographic.html

It is a review of a documentary called Inside North Korea http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p7RtFZCpyv0&feature=related (watch between 3:40 to 5:40 to see the first example of the praise).

The documentary was very good and it looks like it is posted on YouTube in multiple parts. Whether or not the people of North Korea or "Democratic People's Republic of Korea" as Kim Jong Il likes to call it, would actually praise him like this in private or it is just a show for the cameras, who knows. You do see one of the "minders" take great offense to one of the camera men when he laid down in front of a statue of Kim to take a picture. The :minder" told him he would be deported the next day for disrespecting their great General. His offense seemed genuine enough.

 

[Marlowe]

In spite of years of cooperation and alliance between S.Korea and the US, why must we automatically assume that a united Korea under an ROK government will automatically remain a US ally?

Why would a unified Korea remain a US ally? In the long term (if we consider a time frame measured in decades rather than years) there’s no reason it would. In the short term, there are a few factors that I think would tend to support continued Korean alliance with the US.

If Korea is unified under the RoK, there will be the ingrained political legacy of the support of the USA. As much as radicals want to vilify it, the political establishment is well aware that the country survived and prospered in some part due to US support.

Second, under the RoK, the Unified Koreas (UK? how about UKor?) would be democratic. While China offers much in terms of economic growth, there will always be tension between democratic and absolutist/plutocratic regimes. There is a required disconnect between the political philosophy and ethics of a democracy vs. those of an absolutist regime like China.

Third, the other regional partner closest to RoK, Japan, will remain a strong ally of the USA into the foreseeable future. That is going to add an impetus to RoK adherence to the USA.

I’m not saying that Korea would forever be an ally of the USA, but I think diplomatic and political inertia would see to it that the alliance would remain in force for at least two or three presidential administrations.

There is also the possibility that UKor would want a USA presence—though likely greatly reduced—to attempt to avoid a repeat of the 19th century. The USA can be overbearing sometimes, but it tends towards isolationism when left to its own devices and is rarely expansionist except when threatened. Historically, this has not been the pattern Korea has seen from its neighbours.

I also believe that China can certainly be sold on the idea of an officially non-aligned UKor. China has proven to be pragmatic at times, at least as long as it sees profit in it and no threat to its national interests.

 

[Marlowe]

If I remember some of my history right....Korea, the whole Korea, has always had a strong propensity for being aggressive, domineering to it's neighbours....put the whole Korea together again, it may very well go back to its' ways of old....

One would need to go back pretty darn far to find an aggressive Korea. Gochoson (Ancient Choson, as opposed to Choson/Yi Dynasty) and Goguryuh--both predating the first real unified Korean kingdom of Silla--dominated much of what is now northern China or Manchuria. Koryuh, which followed the Three Kingdoms period (of which Silla was part), was pretty strong, but was not aggressive against its neighbours. So you really need to go back to pre 500 AD for an aggressive and domineering Korea.

 

[Marlowe]

My hope is that the Chinese have set up contacts with senior leadership there to know instantly what is about to happen and if things are about to go over the edge, advise their chosen few to decapitate the Kim leadership and his closest followers.

In trying to make sense of the Cheonan sinking, one of the possibilities I posited was "regime destabilization"--an inside job by those who wanted to remove Kim Jong-il, so I'm going with your scenario as at least a possibility.

I also have no doubt that Kim has thought of this scenario and works hard to prevent to much Chinese influence in his senior leadership. Let us hope the senior commanders that receive orders to start a full blown war are sympathetic to the Chinese and will ignore those orders. A lightening fast Invasion by China assisted or least unopposed by NK Generals would be the best scenario for all concerned.

I think that is a little radical for usually conservative China. Not saying it is outside the realm of possibility, but it sounds like more of an extreme example. However, supporting a coup d'etat and then being invited in by the new government to help stabilize, I can see that happening for sure. First, of course, China would secure their border with NKor, just in case of an invasion . . . of refugees!

 

[CougarKing]

China's Premier Wen Jiabao (one of China's higher ranking officials after Pres. Hu Jintao and who also sits on the Politburo's Standing Commitee) is in Seoul trying to help defuse the crisis:

 
South Korean, Chinese leaders meet amid North Korea tension
Updated May 28, 2010 03:39 PM 

SEOUL (AP) – North Korea's neighbors ramped up efforts to take Pyongyang to the UN Security Council for sinking a South Korean warship, with South Korea's president seeking China's support during a summit Friday.

China's backing would be key to any bid to condemn or sanction North Korea for the March 26 torpedo attack that killed 46 South Korean sailors. Beijing, a veto-wielding permanent Security Council member, so far has refrained from committing to Security Council action against Pyongyang, its neighbor and traditional ally.

South Korean President Lee Myung-bak will lay out the case against North Korea during bilateral talks with Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao, a South Korean government official said, speaking on condition of anonymity in line with department policy.
Wen and Lee were meeting at the presidential Blue House on Friday afternoon, a day before a three-way summit that will also include Japanese Prime Minister Yukio Hatoyama.

"South Korea is fully concentrating on diplomatic efforts to hold North Korea responsible," Lee's spokesman Park Sun-kyu said in a statement. He said the matter would be discussed Friday, at the weekend summit and at a security meeting in Singapore in early June.

A multinational investigation concluded last week that a North Korean submarine fired a torpedo that tore apart and sank the Cheonan in the worst attack on the South Korean military since the Korean War.

North Korea has denied responsibility for the attack, and has warned that retaliation or punishment would mean war.

Tensions have soared since Lee laid out a series of punitive measures and pledged to haul Pyongyang before the UN Security Council. The measures include slashing trade with Pyongyang, resuming anti-North Korean propaganda broadcasts across the border and launching large-scale naval exercises off the western coast. US-South Korean military drills are to follow in the coming months.

North Korea threatened Thursday to attack any South Korean ships entering its waters and scrapped an accord meant to prevent naval clashes.

(...)

 

[2010newbie]

Here are some pics I took of the Democratic People's Republic of Korea (aka North Korea) display at the 2010 World Expo. This was the first Expo that North Korea had ever participated in. Interestingly enough there were no military photos or KJI photos on display anywhere, just happy city landscapes with huge ferris wheels and fountains..... There was a gift shop that sold some KJI books with his photo, but that was it.

 

[CougarKing]

And China pledges not to defend the nation which sank the S.Korean warship.

link

SEOGWIPO, South Korea - The premier of China, North Korea's main ally, offered condolences Saturday to South Korea for the sinking of a warship blamed on Pyongyang after promising that Beijing — under pressure to punish the North — would not defend any country guilty of the attack.

Premier Wen Jiabao later joined the leaders of South Korea and Japan in a three-way summit on the southern Korean island of Jeju, saying he hoped it would help achieve peace.


"I hope this summit will conclude with solid results and that we will try together to ensure that it will contribute to world peace," Wen said, according to a Korean-language transcript released by the South Korean president's office.


A multinational team of investigators said last week that evidence proved a North Korean torpedo struck the ship, and South Korean President Lee Myung-bak has pledged to take the North to the U.N. Security Council.


North Korea has denied responsibility and warned that any retaliation or punishment would mean war.


The two-day summit was expected to be overshadowed by the sinking in March of the 1,200-ton Cheonan, which killed 46 sailors in one of South Korea's worst military disasters since the 1950-53 Korean War. But the summit's first session Saturday focused on improving economic co-operation. The ship sinking was not discussed but is on Sunday's agenda, said Kazuo Kodama, a Japanese Foreign Ministry spokesman.


Before the meeting, the three leaders observed a 10-second moment of silence for the Cheonan's dead crew members, a gesture proposed by Japanese Prime Minister Yukio Hatoyama.


Laying out the investigation results, Lee urged the Chinese premier during bilateral talks Friday to play an "active role" in convincing North Korea to admit its wrongdoing, the presidential Blue House said. Wen told Lee that his country "will defend no one" responsible for the sinking, Lee's office said.

(...)

 

[CougarKing]

Both Japan and South Korea pledged to stand together against North Korea:

*On a sidenote, I wonder how long it will take the JGSDF to get troops on to the Korean peninsula if full-blown hostilities resume?

Reuters link

South Korea, Japan united against North Korea

Sat May 29, 11:27 AM


By Jack Kim and Yoko Nishikawa

SEOGWIPO, South Korea (Reuters) - South Korea and Japan vowed on Saturday to stand united against North Korea in a showdown over a sunken ship, raising pressure on China which has been reluctant to join other countries in condemning Pyongyang.


Leaders of the three big northeast Asian powers are meeting in Seogwipo, a honeymoon resort on the South Korean island of Jeju, for a summit that was meant to boost plans for greater regional cooperation and economic integration.


Instead, the standoff between North and South Korea has overshadowed the summit. The two sides of the divided, heavily armed peninsula have been engaged in an escalating confrontation since Seoul concluded that North Korea was behind the sinking of a South Korean warship in late March that killed 46 sailors.


In talks over two days, South Korean President Lee Myung-bak, Japanese Prime Minister Yukio Hatoyama and Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao are likely to focus on the dispute, which has opened a breach between China and its neighbors, both of whom back firm international action against Pyongyang.


At Hatoyama's suggestion, the three leaders observed a moment of silence for the dead sailors before starting their talks.


"North Korea's provocative actions are unforgivable," Hatoyama was quoted by a senior Japanese government official as telling Lee ahead of the three-way summit. "Japan, along with the international community, is condemning such moves and strongly backs South Korea

(...)

 

[CougarKing]

Agence France Presse link

WASHINGTON (AFP) - The top US military officer said Sunday he was concerned about a possible North Korean "follow-on" to a torpedo attack that sank a South Korea warship, killing 46 sailors.

Admiral Michael Mullen, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, said the US goal was to "certainly not have a conflict break out."


In an interview on "Fox News Sunday," Mullen said he was concerned about North Korean leader Kim Jong-il's intentions because "he just doesn't seem to do single things."


"So I'm concerned that, you know, there could be follow-on activities," he said.


Mullen said the torpedo attack on the 1,200-tonne Cheonan corvette on March 26 had made stability on the Korean peninsula "more fragile," noting that a lack of clarity about Kim's succession plans added to the uncertainty.

International investigators reported on May 20 their conclusion that a North Korean submarine had fired a heavy torpedo to sink the warship. The North has denied involvement, and responded to the South's reprisals with threats of war.

(...)