Pakistan and 2011 what is the future?

[ptepaul]

Pakistan has a problem in it has a huge army it can't afford. It is effectively fighting a two front war on top of an  insurrection. It needs to solve its India issues so it can ensure that if it turns its back on Kashmir, India won't push the proverbial buttons.
The Taliban forces have been effectively forced out of Afghan and as the Afghan army comes up to strength the Taliban will continuously fall back or terrorist type attacks instead of open warfare. They will instead try and create an autonomous region within the north west frontier provinces. (Where bin laden and crew are hiding in open site).

It is also responsible for counter terrorism, spying on potential Pakistan enemy's and the security of the nuclear and space forces of Pakistan.
The Directorate for Inter-Services Intelligence (more commonly known as Inter-Services Intelligence or simply by its initials ISI) is Pakistan's premier intelligence agency. It is the largest of the three intelligence agencies of Pakistan, the other being the Intelligence Bureau (IB) and Military Intelligence (MI).



The ISI could be easily tied to the Mumbai attacks, possibly 9/11, support of al Qeada, support for the afghan Taliban (Mullah Omar lives openly in Quetta), as well as the American fight against the Taliban and al Qeada. The ISI is also supporting the Pakistan Taliban and the army that is fighting it. The Pakistani Taliban is also attributed to the assassination of Presidental candidate Bhutto.

The Pakistan secret service agencies also have a problem as it has been playing both sides for so long it no longer knows what side is right or wrong.

As examples:
In 1982 the ISI, CIA and Mossad carried out a covert transfer of Soviet-made weapons and Lebanese weapons captured by the Israelis during the Israeli invasion of Lebanon in June 1982 and their subsequent transfer to Pakistan and then into Afghanistan.

(1982–1997) ISI are believed to have access to Osama bin Laden in the past. ISI played a central role in the U.S.-backed guerrilla war to oust the Soviet Army from Afghanistan in the 1980s. That Central Intelligence Agency (CIA)-backed effort flooded Pakistan with weapons and with Afghan, Pakistani and Arab "mujahideen", who were motivated to fight as a united force protecting fellow Muslims in Soviet occupied Afghanistan. The CIA relied on the ISI to train fighters, distribute arms, and channel money. The ISI trained about 83,000 Afghan mujahideen between 1983 and 1997, and dispatched them to Afghanistan. B. Raman of the South Asia Analysis Group, an Indian think-tank, claims that the Central Intelligence Agency through the ISI promoted the smuggling of heroin into Afghanistan in order to turn the Soviet troops into heroin addicts and thus greatly reducing their fighting potential.

In 1994 the Afghan Taliban regime that the ISI supported after 1994 to suppress warlord fighting and in hopes of bringing stability to Afghanistan proved too rigid in its Islamic interpretations and too fond of the Al-Qaeda based on its soil. Despite receiving large sums of aid from Pakistan, the Taliban leader Mullah Omar is reported to have insulted a visiting delegation of Saudi Prince Sultan and an ISI general asking that the Taliban turn over bin Laden to Saudi Arabia.  Following the 9/11 attack on the United States allegedly by Al-Qaeda, Pakistan felt it necessary to cooperate with the US and the Northern Alliance.

In the 2000s the ISI is suspicious about CIA attempted penetration of Pakistan nuclear asset, and CIA intelligence gathering in the Pakistani law-less tribal areas. Based on these suspicion, it is speculated that ISI is pursuing a counter-intelligence against CIA operations in Pakistan and Afghanistan.

In July 2008, American intelligence agencies said that ISI officers helped plan the 2008 Indian embassy bombing in Kabul. They said that the ISI officers had not been renegades, indicating that their actions might have been authorized by superiors.


In 2010 a new report by the London School of Economics (LSE) claimed to provide the most concrete evidence yet that the ISI is providing funding, training and sanctuary to the Taliban insurgency on a scale much larger than previously thought. The report's author Matt Waldman spoke to nine Taliban field commanders in Afghanistan and concluded that Pakistan's relationship with the insurgents ran far deeper than previously realised. Some of those interviewed suggested that the organization even attended meetings of the Taliban's supreme council, the Quetta Shura.


During the Mumbai attacks of 2008 Ajmal Kasab, (was the only attacker who was captured alive) disclosed that the attackers were members of Lashkar-e-Taiba, the Pakistan-based militant organisation, considered a terrorist organisation by India, Pakistan, the United States, the United Kingdom, and the United Nations,  among others.  The Indian government said that the attackers came from Pakistan, and their controllers were in Pakistan. On 7 January 2009, Pakistan's Information Minister Sherry Rehman officially accepted Ajmal Kasab's nationality as Pakistani.  On 12 February 2009, Pakistan's Interior Minister Rehman Malik asserted that parts of the attack had been planned in Pakistan.
Ref..
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2008_Mumbai_attacks
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Inter-Services_Intelligence

So as one can see there is a problem.

The real question is how long can Pakistan government, armed forces and the ISI can continue this game... Strategically.... Financially and morally

Potential future for 2011:

Unable to pay its armed forces it will turn on its master as it has in the past.  The question is can the country of Pakistan hold itself together?

As the only Muslim atomic power the US will be forced to prop up any government or security system (ISI) because the other option is too frightening to contemplate.  As Afghanistan moves from a failed state to a third world democracy the fiscal, the religious and military enemies will move back into Pakistan.

India may move on consolidating Kashmir or an alliance with Afghan and again the Pakistan government and people will feel trapped and lash out.


Will Pakistan become a failed state and can the world afford the consequences? 
A successful, secure Pakistan is in every ones best interests. 
A Central Asia that is capable, economically secure, strategically secure and able to be self determinate will help the world in 2011.

http://mcplpaulfranklin.blogspot.com/2010/12/pakistan-and-2011-what-is-future.html

 

[kstart]

Pakistan coalition loses key partner

http://www.cbc.ca/world/story/2011/01/02/pakistan-gilani.html?ref=rss

Last Updated: Sunday, January 2, 2011 | 6:01 PM ET Comments33Recommended17The Associated Press
Pakistan Prime Minister Yousuf Raza Gilani attends a welcoming ceremony in Ankara, Turkey, in early December. (Umit Bektas/Reuters) The second largest party in Pakistan's ruling coalition said Sunday it is quitting the government and joining the opposition, depriving the country's pro-U.S. government of a parliamentary majority and throwing its future into doubt.

It was not immediately clear whether the Muttahida Qaumi Movement's move will prompt the downfall of Prime Minister Yousuf Raza Gilani's government. But it is almost certain to distract Pakistani officials at a time when the United States is pushing Islamabad to do more to help turn around the war in neighbouring Afghanistan.

The decision also raises the possibility of a new government that could be less friendly to U.S. interests and less vocal in opposing the Taliban.

The MQM opted to withdraw from the ruling coalition because of the government's poor performance in combating corruption, rising inflation and other problems weighing down average Pakistanis, said Haider Abbas Rizvi said, an MQM member of parliament.

"We are doing it for the sake of common men," Rizvi said. The party already pulled its ministers from the cabinet last week.

Prime minister expresses confidence
Gilani sought to downplay the threat to his government from the defection and expressed confidence that the ruling Pakistan People's Party could avert a crisis.

"The government will remain intact, it will not fall," he told reporters in the eastern city of Lahore.

Some analysts have speculated the MQM's behaviour has been driven by self-interest rather than public good, leaving open the possibility the government could still find a way to lure the party back by offering the right concessions. The MQM has historically been most focused on its level of control in the southern port city of Karachi.

"The government will continue to strive to keep the coalition intact and pursue national reconciliation," said Farahnaz Ispahani, a spokeswoman for Pakistani President Asif Ali Zardari, who is also co-chair of the PPP. "We understand the MQM's political right to sit on the opposition benches, but we hope that they will review their decision."

If the MQM goes through with its threat of shifting its 25 seats to the opposition, the ruling coalition will have fewer than the 172 seats needed for a majority in parliament.

Another coalition partner, the Jamiat Ulema Islam party, also recently withdrew from the cabinet and threatened to shift its eight seats to the opposition if Zardari didn't sack the prime minister.

Analysts have speculated the two groups could be distancing themselves from the unpopular ruling party in anticipation of the next set of parliamentary elections, which are scheduled for 2013 but could take place earlier if called by the prime minister.

Non-confidence vote possible
The PPP took power in February 2008, but its popularity has slipped as Pakistan has grappled with severe economic problems and frequent militant attacks.

If the government cannot hold together its majority coalition or form a new one, it could face a non-confidence vote in the prime minister. Zardari, however, would likely remain in his post as president, which has a five-year term.

According to Pakistan's constitution, members representing 20 per cent of the seats in parliament can sponsor a vote of non-confidence in the premier. If the measure is passed by a majority of parliament, the prime minister is booted from office.

The most important player in this scenario would be the Pakistan Muslim League-N, which holds the second largest number of seats in parliament, with 89.

The PML-N is believed to be the most popular party in the country. It is more aligned with religious conservatives than the PPP and has not been as vocal in opposing the Taliban — a position that could cause some discomfort in Washington.

But it could be difficult for the MQM to enlist the PML-N's support for a non-confidence vote because the two parties have clashed politically.

Khawaja Asif, a member of PML-N said his party would have trouble forming a coalition with MQM and other possible partners in parliament.

Another coalition not easy
"If we have to sleep with the MQM and the PML-Q and the JUI, then God help us, we are doomed," said Asif. "We are in a very tricky situation. Everybody wants the People's Party to go. But what's next?"

The PML-N would likely prefer to wait until the next round of parliamentary elections, in which it would be expected to win the most seats, Asif said.

But any future government would end up facing the same seemingly intractable challenges as its predecessor: a feeble economy, chronic power shortages and rebuilding after this year's horrendous flooding.

It will also have to navigate the delicate partnership between the Pakistani military — the nation's most powerful institution — and the U.S., which provides billions in aid to target al-Qaeda and Taliban fighters who use Pakistani territory to plan attacks on Western troops in neighbouring Afghanistan.


Read more: http://www.cbc.ca/world/story/2011/01/02/pakistan-gilani.html?ref=rss#ixzz19xVLN6dc

 

[ptepaul]

I think these are the kind of first moves in the nation of Pakistan falling into seperate tribal areas....

Its only a matter of time.

 

[GAP]

I think these are the kind of first moves in the nation of Pakistan falling into seperate tribal areas....

Its only a matter of time.

The tea leaves have not been kind to Pakistan....the government is weak, and it shows.

There is a another real posibility....another military coup....

 

[ptepaul]

I think the military with Musharraf  will return and attempt to be the strong man.
America will accept it again due to fears for the security of the nuclear and missile forces

Article on people asking for his return to politics.
http://www.dailytimes.com.pk/default.asp?page=2010%5C12%5C06%5Cstory_6-12-2010_pg3_3

Interesting facebook page of Musharraf
http://www.facebook.com/pervezmusharraf

For me he is the wild card of Pak politics.... and not in a good way

 

[kstart]

TAPI pipeline-- how does this work when agreements have been made, but then the government destabilizes again?

Pakistan does matter, geographically, re: Central Government (Kabul); Kandahar. . . and I do care about CF and Afghan civilian safety.  Kandhar is critical strategically re: foreign investment in the pipelines, maybe why that was a priority for stabilization. . .?

By stating this however, it's not to negate the good work of CF.

I recognize ISAF, and Athena, etc.  The tough constraints, the discipline out in the field, ROE,McChrystal etc.

But I do feel angry when lied to.
http://www.ensec.org/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=233:afghanistan-the-tapi-pipeline-and-energy-geopolitics&catid=103:energysecurityissuecontent&Itemid=358

There's a long history and it looks to me that the TAPI agenda has been concealed from Canadians. . .?  Lefties saw it, looking at GW admin: Enron (Cheney); Unocal, Chevron (Condelezza Rice).  History also re: Nixon changing over from the 'gold standard' to "oil standard' (to not have to pay back US debt back then. . . ?). 

We're paying taxes, putting CF lives on the line, these others will profit and we'll be double-billed again.  I'm not an economist though, but I am watchful re: abuse of Canada and Canadian people resources, money and CF honour and loyality.  There's always going to be stomach-turning elements.

But here we go:

Canada’s Minister of National Defence, Peter MacKay, observed that Canadian troops were “not there specifically to protect a pipeline across Afghanistan,” but added, “If the Taliban were attacking certain places in the country or certain projects, then yes we will play a role.”

In January 2009, Jaap de Hoop Scheffer, then NATO Secretary General, said, “Protecting pipelines is first and foremost a national responsibility. And it should stay like that. NATO is not in the business of protecting pipelines. But when there's a crisis, or if a certain nation asks for assistance, NATO could, I think, be instrumental in protecting pipelines on land.” These comments suggest that NATO troops could be called upon to assist Afghanistan in protecting the pipeline. Since pipelines last 50 years or more, this could auger a very long commitment in Afghanistan.

Article is worth a read.  Try to detach, there's the honour of the mission, and corruption is a fact of modern geopolitical, economic, etc.

 

[ptepaul]

The TAPI pipeline is a concern as it would be a juicy target for the Taliban to hit against the Kabul government.

Just because the history of the oil pipeline is long and convoluted... does not mean that the government of Afghan should not support the building of it if it can provide security for the project and if by providing security its doesn't take away Army elements of ANP elements from the local villages and provinces.

Cheney is the bogey man who lives under the bed of the lefties... and although his history is also not that pleasent.... oil will flow... people will buy oil and companies will make money off it as will governments.

"Peace is essential. Pipeline construction cannot begin until the killing stops and all stakeholders, including the Pashtun, participate in the project. Both Afghanistan and Pakistan are complex countries. Their mix of ethnic groups, long-standing tribal traditions, and history of minimal governance create major challenges. Such challenges require political, not military solutions. The strategy of national reconciliation offered at the London conference on Afghanistan in January 2010 is a beginning. TAPI is geopolitically significant, but encumbered with many difficulties that will challenge all participants in the years ahead"

http://www.ensec.org/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=233:afghanistan-the-tapi-pipeline-and-energy-geopolitics&catid=103:energysecurityissuecontent&Itemid=358

 

[kstart]

The TAPI pipeline is a concern as it would be a juicy target for the Taliban to hit against the Kabul government.

Just because the history of the oil pipeline is long and convoluted... does not mean that the government of Afghan should not support the building of it if it can provide security for the project and if by providing security its doesn't take away Army elements of ANP elements from the local villages and provinces.

Cheney is the bogey man who lives under the bed of the lefties... and although his history is also not that pleasent.... oil will flow... people will buy oil and companies will make money off it as will governments.

"Peace is essential. Pipeline construction cannot begin until the killing stops and all stakeholders, including the Pashtun, participate in the project. Both Afghanistan and Pakistan are complex countries. Their mix of ethnic groups, long-standing tribal traditions, and history of minimal governance create major challenges. Such challenges require political, not military solutions. The strategy of national reconciliation offered at the London conference on Afghanistan in January 2010 is a beginning. TAPI is geopolitically significant, but encumbered with many difficulties that will challenge all participants in the years ahead"

http://www.ensec.org/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=233:afghanistan-the-tapi-pipeline-and-energy-geopolitics&catid=103:energysecurityissuecontent&Itemid=358

I see what you mean re: a juicy target. . .boom.
I don't think Cheney though is just a boogey man, the economy is sickly oil entrenched.  These are policy directions that have going back to the time of Nixon (and Cheney was aroudn at that time too).  Transitions from Bretton Wood trade pact; shift to american dollar standard (Nixon, George Shultz), shift to petrodollars-- we're so badly entrenched in that system.  What happened for me today is I had previously had more hope and faith in the power of democracy, but these problems are super entrenched, more than I had realized (being the lefty oriented kind of gal I am)-- but common ground is about healthy democracy, peace and security at home, reasonable economic stability re: the common good of Canadians, basic health, something good for our future generations, etc.  This is a larger context.

Yes, the political instability of Pakistan, and Kandahar being a major junction re: TAPI, and elsewhere Pakistan/Afghan boarder.  It's a maor development project whose proceeds which benefit Afghanistan can add further stability re: Central government, money to sustain Afghan Army and Police (ANA, NDS) .  I believe this was planned for but not disclosed to the Canadian public upfront.

 

[ptepaul]

I watched a report from Pakistan that the locals are perceiving that the Pak army is the fighting arm of the US forces.
500 bomb attacks in last year and even today a governor was killed.

The Pashtuns who have always felt left outside the Army and specifically the officer cadre.

We must talk to all sides.
Although there are fundamental examples of pure hatred on both sides.
No war is won without peaceful negotiation.

I see that the Pakistan will follow on the ex Gen Musharraf taking over by  mid summer.
This (in my opinion) means using the conflict as an excuse to take back the government he acquired through a coup in 1999.

During an interview with Jon Stewart of The Daily Show on 26 September 2006, Musharraf stated that then-Secretary of State Colin Powell also contacted him with a similar message: "You are with us or against us."  Very familiar words that we have all heard before bu to the people of Pakistan there will be huge implications as well as implication to Canada.

Example
As the Sri Lank-an government offensive went against the Tamil Tigers, Canadian supporters took to the streets of Toronto in demonstration, we also saw a huge influx of refugees (the most notable the refugee boat being interceptted  off shore near Vancouver Island. (there are about 100 000 Canadians that claim Sri Lankan ancestry.

How many Pakistan immigrants are in Canada roughly (from stats Canada) about 124 000 (that number may be as high as 300 000 that have some Pakistani DNA) that claim to have Pakistani ancestry.
"Toronto has the largest Pakistani community in Canada, with the majority living in the localities of Rexdale, East York and its western suburb Mississauga (66 000)" stats Can 2006.

If there is problems  then we will see the problems arising in places like Toronto, Montreal and even Calgary and Vancouver.

 

[George Wallace]

This latest news out of Pakistan about the operations of the ISI, just reemphasizes what most Western Intelligence agencies have speculated about for years; the ISI playing both sides in this War on Terror. 

Reproduced under the Fair Dealings provisions of the Copyright Act.

Bin Laden raid CIA informants arrested by Pakistan

By The Associated Press, cbc.ca,
Updated: June 15, 2011 3:08 AM


Article Link

Pakistan's intelligence service has arrested the owner of a safe house rented to the CIA to observe Osama bin Laden's compound before the U.S. raid that killed the al-Qaeda leader, as well as a "handful" of other Pakistanis, a U.S. official said late Tuesday.

In Pakistan, a Western official confirmed a New York Times report that five of the Pakistani informants who fed information to the CIA before the May 2 bin Laden raid were arrested by Pakistan's top military spy agency.

The officials spoke to The Associated Press on the condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive intelligence matters.

The Times, in an article posted on its website late Tuesday, said the detained informants included a Pakistani army major who officials said copied the licence plates of cars visiting bin Laden's compound in Abbottabad in the weeks before the raid.

The fate of the CIA informants who were arrested was unclear, but American officials told the newspaper that CIA Director Leon Panetta raised the issue when he visited Islamabad last week to meet with Pakistani military and intelligence officers.

U.S.-Pakistani relations have been strained over the raid by Navy SEALs on Pakistani territory, which was a blow to Pakistan's military, and other issues.

Officials said the arrests of the informants were just the latest evidence of the fractured relationship between the two nations.

The Times said that at a closed briefing last week, members of the Senate intelligence committee asked Michael Morell, the deputy CIA director, to rate Pakistan's co-operation with the United States on counterterrorism operations, on a scale of 1 to 10.

"Three," Morell replied, according to officials familiar with the exchange, the newspaper said.

American officials speaking to the Times cautioned that Morell's comment was a snapshot of the current relationship and did not represent the Obama administration's overall assessment.

"We have a strong relationship with our Pakistani counterparts and work through issues when they arise," Marie Harf, a CIA spokeswoman, told the newspaper. "Director Panetta had productive meetings last week in Islamabad. It's a crucial partnership, and we will continue to work together in the fight against al-Qaeda and other terrorist groups who threaten our country and theirs."

Husain Haqqani, Pakistan's ambassador to the United States, said in an interview with the Times that the CIA and the Pakistani spy agency "are working out mutually agreeable terms for their co-operation in fighting the menace of terrorism. It is not appropriate for us to get into the details at this stage."

More on link

In the end, this is a sad commentary on the ethics and morals of the people whom we have to deal with militarily and politically in this Region.  It makes everything suspect.  There can be no true sense of trust when dealing with people who demonstrate these qualities.  The sad part of all this is that this is a "Nuclear Club" member who can not be trusted by our standards to act in a rational manner.