Syria Superthread [merged]

[jollyjacktar]

And so it begins...

 

[SoldierInAYear]

Syrian military says it downed Turkish fighter jet

Sauce: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-18561219

The Syrian military has said it shot down a Turkish plane "flying in airspace over Syrian waters", according to state-run news agency Sana.

"[The jet] was dealt with in accordance with the laws that govern such situations," a military spokesman said.

Turkey had earlier said it believed that one of its F-4 fighter jets had been shot down by Syrian forces.

A search for the two crew members is under way, involving Turkish and Syrian coast guard ships.

The F-4 Phantom disappeared over the Mediterranean, south-west of Turkey's Hatay province, near the Syrian coast.

The Turkish military said it lost radio contact with the F-4 while it was flying over Hatay, about 90 minutes after it took off from Erhac airbase in the province of Malatya, to the north-west.

A Syrian military spokesman told Sana that an "unidentified target" had broached Syrian airspace from a westerly direction at 11:40 local time (08:40 GMT) on Friday.

The target was flying at high speed and at low altitude, the spokesman said.

Anti-aircraft defences had hit the plane with artillery, bringing it down in the sea off the coast of Latakia province, 10km (six miles) from the village of Um al-Tuyour, he added.

"It later became clear the target was a Turkish military plane which had entered our airspace," he continued.

'Decisive response'

Earlier on Friday evening, Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan held a two-hour emergency meeting with his interior, defence and foreign ministers and the Chief of the General Staff, Gen Necdet Ozel.

Mr Erdogan's office said that Turkey would respond decisively once all the circumstances were established.


Given the breakdown in relations between the two countries over the Syrian conflict, this incident has the potential to provoke a serious crisis, the BBC's Jonathan Head in Istanbul reports.

Much will depend on whether or not the Turkish pilots have survived, our correspondent says.

If not, public anger might push the government into some kind of punitive action against Syria, he adds.

Relations between Nato-member Turkey and Syria, once close allies, have deteriorated sharply since the uprising against Syrian President Bashar al-Assad began in March 2011.

Tens of thousands of Syrian refugees have fled the violence across the border into Turkey.

Aleppo violence

Inside Syria, the violence continued on Thursday with state media reporting that "armed terrorist groups" had abducted and massacred 25 villagers in Aleppo province.

Activists said that rebels had shot dead 26 government supporters who were believed to be militiamen.

In Aleppo city, activists said a number of people died when security forces opened fire on a demonstration after Friday prayers.

Meanwhile, international envoy Kofi Annan has said it is time for the world to exert greater pressure to help bring the violence in Syria to an end.

Mr Annan called for Iran to be involved in attempts to end the violence, a proposal put forward by Russia but rejected by the US.

In a separate development, the BBC has learned that UK government officials have decided to prevent the head of the Syrian Olympic Committee, Gen Mowaffak Joumaa, from travelling to London for the Games.

The visa ban is believed to be linked to his relationship to President Bashar al-Assad's government.

 

[cupper]

Syrian military says it downed Turkish fighter jet

Sauce: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-18561219

Oops. :facepalm:

 

[aesop081]

 

[Popurhedoff]

Turkey has requested consultations under article 4 of NATO's founding Washington Treaty. Under article 4, any ally can request consultations whenever, in the opinion of any of them, their territorial integrity, political independence or security is threatened," Oana Lungescu said.

http://www.aljazeera.com/news/middleeast/2012/06/201262465711936449.html

This will make it very interesting.

Cheers
Pop

 

[MasterInstructor]

I don't know how much info you get from Canadian news but today, Turkish Government made a statement after analyzing the data...

!- Plane was in International waters, 1 mile away from Syrian air space when shot down. After fire upon, tried to make it to Syrian land for ejection but crashed 4 miles away, 3 miles in Syrian airspace, 8 miles from shore

2- IFF was on and identified as Turkish

3- No FC radar was on

4- It was aircraft with no weapons capability.

5- No warnings were issued.

6- 15 minuted before getting shot down, accidently it entered the Syrian Airspace briefly and immediately left the airspace.

7- Its mission was to test the Turkish radar systems by flying low at high speed.

Prime Minister talked with all political party leaders and all consulates of UN, NATO and Arab League nations over the weekend and called for emergency NATO meeting which will be held Tuesday

This is the latest news from Turkey

 

[Edward Campbell]

Turkey has requested consultations under article 4 of NATO's founding Washington Treaty. Under article 4, any ally can request consultations whenever, in the opinion of any of them, their territorial integrity, political independence or security is threatened," Oana Lungescu said.

http://www.aljazeera.com/news/middleeast/2012/06/201262465711936449.html

This will make it very interesting.

Cheers
Pop

I think Turkey is making a wee, tiny bit of mischief.

Turkey has been rejected by Europe, it's been, de facto, declared to be "not European enough" for the EU, but when Europe wanted to "display leadership" by leading NATO into operations in neighbouring oil supplier Libya it needed Turkish support. Now Turkey has issue with its neighbour, one with which it (and NATO) shares a common land border ~ it wants, at least, to force the Europeans to acknowledge that Turkey is part of the "North Atlantic" (Euro-American) alliance.

I doubt the Turks expect or even, really, want NATO support. Turkey is re-inventing itself as a major Muslim power (its population is about the same as acknowledged Muslim "powers" Egypt and Iran but its GDP is about the same as Egypt and Iran combined), bordering but separate from Europe.

 

[brihard]

I don't know how much info you get from Canadian news but today, Turkish Government made a statement after analyzing the data...

!- Plane was in International waters, 1 mile away from Syrian air space when shot down. After fire upon, tried to make it to Syrian land for ejection but crashed 4 miles away, 3 miles in Syrian airspace, 8 miles from shore

2- IFF was on and identified as Turkish

3- No FC radar was on

4- It was aircraft with no weapons capability.

5- No warnings were issued.

6- 15 minuted before getting shot down, accidently it entered the Syrian Airspace briefly and immediately left the airspace.

7- Its mission was to test the Turkish radar systems by flying low at high speed.

Prime Minister talked with all political party leaders and all consulates of UN, NATO and Arab League nations over the weekend and called for emergency NATO meeting which will be held Tuesday

This is the latest news from Turkey

I don't buy it.

1. The wreck was found about 13km offshore. Considerably closer than that account claims.

2 & 3. Any independent verification of this, or just Turkey's say so?

4. Turkey has acquired 40 RF-4Es. 32 of them were second hand from the German air force, which upgraded its recce aircraft to be capable of ground attack. Turkey further has a good supply of conventionally equipped F-4s. There is no reason to expect a nation defending its airspace to be able to discern that the F-4 in question is one of the very small number that Turkey has that are not capable of bearing arms.

5. Same question, any independent corroboration? Do we really believe that in a regime like Assad's low level military leaders are going to take the risk on their own initiative of engaging an aircraft that is not with certainty flying a hostile flight profile? It smells fishy.

6. He said / she said. One side is telling (more of) the truth and one is lying.

7. How low and fast are we talking here? It got hit hard at low altitude and high speed and still made it halfway to shore? And the crew were in good enough shape to do that, but not to punch out?


Some other inconsistencies- what the hell kind of gun does Syria have that can successfully engage a small, high speed fighter aircraft at 22km, can hit it, but doesn't kill it outright? Does such ground based AAA even exist with that kind of range and accuracy? And yet subsequently fail to achieve a subsequent hard kill after the aircraft turns directly into Syrian airspace and begins decreasing altitude- which must, on radar, appear to be even more hostile than it must have been to begin with?

If Turkey is going to be mapping its own AA coverage that close to Syrian airspace, one would think the pilots would be skilled enough to exercise more care- particularly if they've already been in Syrian airspace one shortly before.

If someone can tell me that AAA is in fact that effective, I'll have to adjust how I'm looking at it, but I'm seriously doubtful. Occam's razor suggests that Syria's story is much more believable in this. The Turks look to have been caught playing some sort of games, and are trying to save face. I could be wrong of course, but things just don't add up.

 

[Retired AF Guy]

I don't buy it.

...................

Some other inconsistencies- what the hell kind of gun does Syria have that can successfully engage a small, high speed fighter aircraft at 22km, can hit it, but doesn't kill it outright? Does such ground based AAA even exist with that kind of range and accuracy? And yet subsequently fail to achieve a subsequent hard kill after the aircraft turns directly into Syrian airspace and begins decreasing altitude- which must, on radar, appear to be even more hostile than it must have been to begin with?

The Syrians have stated that the F-4 was within 1 km of its coastline, well within range of AAA systems such as the 57mm S-60 . Depends on who you want to believe.

Having said that, I think we have to be careful with the phrase "fired upon;" on hearing that phrase we assume that it means AAA, when in fact it can also refer to a SAM launch. In my mind a SAM is the most likely culprit, with the honours going to the SA-2 Guideline . Here is link to the IMINT and Analysis website that provides a breakdown of the Syrian Air Defense network. The second slide has the range rings for the various strategic SAM systems with the SA-2 in red. Where the Turkish F-4 was downed is within the red range circle.

Here is a link to a BBC article on the downing that includes a map  showing the purported flight path and timeline of the incident.

 

[winnipegoo7]

Pantsir-S1 might have been the culprit according to Wikipedia.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pantsir-S1#Operators_and_combat_history

http://www.debka.com/article/22112/Newly-supplied-Russian-Pantsyr-1-anti-air-missile-used-to-down-Turkish-warplane

 

[Retired AF Guy]

Pantsir-S1 might have been the culprit according to Wikipedia.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pantsir-S1#Operators_and_combat_history

http://www.debka.com/article/22112/Newly-supplied-Russian-Pantsyr-1-anti-air-missile-used-to-down-Turkish-warplane

Sorry, there's nothing in the Wiki article that confirms that Syria has the Pantsir-S1. As for the Debka article, gag me with a smurf.

 

[brihard]

Syria has explicitly stated 'antiaircraft artillery', and Turkey was stating the same for a while too. That's why I buy the Syrian story more than the Turkish one- at close prximity to the coast a 57 or a ZSU or some such is absolutely believable. In international airspace though? Certainly not.

The Syrian story is consistent and believable, frankly. Turkey's has too many holes in it. The simplest explanation likely being true, I think it's more likely that Turkey got caught with its pants down in a recce and an F-4 got splashed. Now, in typical middle eastern fashion, they're esperately trying to save face by spinning a tale.

 

[winnipegoo7]

I agree that Wikipedia isn't the best source. It was the only source I could find that was claiming a specific weapon system was used. There is now a JP article that quotes a Turkish tabloid claiming it was a SA-11, but I guess we will find out what did it in time.

According to Janes, Syria received delivery of some Pantsir-S1 in 2008/09, but may have sold some of them to Iran.

 

[Retired AF Guy]

I agree that Wikipedia isn't the best source. It was the only source I could find that was claiming a specific weapon system was used. There is now a JP article that quotes a Turkish tabloid claiming it was a SA-11, but I guess we will find out what did it in time.

If you go to the Wiki article in question and click on the source for the report it takes you to ... wait for it .... the Debkafile report you had quoted earlier.

According to Janes, Syria received delivery of some Pantsir-S1 in 2008/09, but may have sold some of them to Iran.

I remember hearing the same thing. If Syria had any operational Pantsir-S1 we would probably have evidence of it by now (e.g. radar intercepts, imagery (handheld and/or overhead), defectors reports, etc).

 

[Retired AF Guy]

From "tomorrow's" Turkish Daily News.

Syria shot Turkish jet in front of many eyewitnesses

The eastern Mediterranean is surrounded by many watching military eyes, leading many to wonder why no one witnessed the shooting down of a Turkish jet

In his address to his Justice and Development Party (AK Parti) in the Parliament today, June 26, Turkish Prime Minister Tayyip Erdoğan is expected to make an important statement about the country’s next move regarding Syria’s shooting down of a Turkish reconnaissance plane on June 22 off Syrian coast.

Following the June 25 cabinet meeting with all three main opposition parties in the Parliament, a meeting with foreign ambassadors in Ankara on June 24 and high-level security meetings on June 23 there has been a heavy diplomatic traffic denouncing Syria since the day the incident occurred, and now all eyes will be on Erdoğan.

Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoğlu, in an interview with state-run television channel TRT on June 24, gave a detailed, minute-by-minute account of the incident and said it was a deliberate attack on an unarmed, open ID plane located outside Syrian territorial waters and without any advance warning given. Davutoğlu is operating as the coordinator of this crisis in Ankara. Despite Davutoğlu’s statements the Syrian government insists the plane was in Syrian territory and quite close, allowing it to be shot by a 2.5 kilometer range anti-aircraft gun.

Syrian Foreign Ministry Spokesman Jihad Makdissi claimed that they had presented a part of an American made Turkish F-4 plane with bullet holes on it (thus proving the plane was not shot down by a rocket) to Turkey, but no Turkish source has so far confirm that. Turkish search and rescue efforts, on the other hand, found some parts of the cockpit and seats in open sea waters, which are reported to have traces of explosion and fire. The two Turkish pilots are still missing with hopes for their survival decreasing.

Now Hürriyet Daily News has additional information from official Turkish sources saying the plane was shot at 11:56 a.m. on June 22 (when the radio contact was lost) and crashed into the sea at 11:58 a.m. (when the radar track was lost) and during the one plus minute it glided down into Syrian territorial waters. Turkey says it has given all chronological accounts, including radar tracks and radio communications to its NATO allies and United Nations representations. The European Union Commission imposed new sanctions on Syria and denounced its militaristic politics on June 25. NATO has been called by Turkey for a meeting scheduled today for a presentation of the attack.

The attack actually took place in front of many eyewitnesses. The north corner of the East Mediterranean is one of the most condensed spot in the world when it comes to military and intelligence activities.

The Malatya, Erhaç air base of Turkey (see map on the front page) hosts a major early warning radar system for the NATO missile shield defense system, which started operation following the NATO summit in May, serving as a major issue between the United States and Russia. In Tartus, south of the main Syria city of Latakia where the Turkish plane was shot down off the coast, lies Russia’s main naval base in the Mediterranean with important intelligence capabilities. It is important for Russians to be close to three important targets at once; that is the main reason for them to back the actions of the Beshar Al-Assad regime against its own people: Incirlik NATO base, south of Turkey is one of biggest of its kind in the world is north of Tartus. Right to its west there is the Dikelia base of the United Kingdom, a main military and intelligence facility which also keeps an eye on the Suez channel and Aegean. To its south there is Israel, the main threat of its best ally in the region and its host regime, Syria. Perhaps there is no need to say that Israel is trying its best not to miss anything in this highly strategic part of the region.

There is no need to say that for many countries having satellites, this is a pretty attractive location to watch.

And so the question is: Is it possible not to see the attack with so many witnesses around? Another question: Is it possible to hide the truth when there are so many eyes watching?

June/26/2012

Article Link. The link also has a map showing the purported flight path of the aircraft. The article does make a good point in that the area in question, is well monitored by various countries and their respective military/intelligent agencies.

 

[tomahawk6]

Assad's palace defenses are under attack. There are reports of SAS entering Syria to establish "safe" zones. Maybe its the end of the line for Assad and the Baath Party.

 

[cupper]

Assad's palace defenses are under attack. There are reports of SAS entering Syria to establish "safe" zones. Maybe its the end of the line for Assad and the Baath Party.

Hope so. My company is in the process of starting up an office in Turkey, and there is a good possibility I could end up going over some time in the next few months.

 

[SoldierInAYear]

Turkey - deploys rocket launchers and artillery along Syrian border

Source: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-18622140

Turkey has begun deploying rocket launchers and artillery along its border with Syria after last week's shooting down of a Turkish plane.

Columns of military vehicles have been seen moving from bases in Iskenderun and Diyarbakir to the border, close to the area where the jet came down.

The F-4 Phantom jet crashed into the sea after straying into Syrian airspace. The pilots are still missing.

Turkey has responded by changing its terms of military engagement.

Announcing the decision to step up its border defences on Tuesday, Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan said that any "military element" that approached the Turkish border from Syria would be treated as a threat and a military target.

He described Syria as a "clear and present threat".

Turkish TV showed pictures of a small convoy of lorries carrying anti-aircraft guns into a military base near the border town of Yayladagi.

Other military vehicles had travelled to the border town of Reyhanli in Hatay province, reports said.

 

[a_majoor]

Getting to the end game now. The Syrian regime still has a much larger and more formidable military force than many of the other "Arab Sprinjg" nations, and this military is not sitting on the sidelines or siding with the rebels either, so this could be a long, drawn out process:

http://fullcomment.nationalpost.com/2012/06/30/kelly-mcparland-assads-last-calculation-to-quit-and-live-or-fight-on-and-die/#more-83547

Kelly McParland: Assad’s last calculation — to quit and live, or fight on and die?
Kelly McParland  Jun 30, 2012 – 1:16 PM ET | Last Updated: Jun 29, 2012 4:21 PM ET

A member of the Free Syrian Army holds a burning portrait of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad in Al-Qsair, 25 kilometres southwest of Homs

At what point do you suppose it will occur to Bashar Assad that it isn’t going to get better?

There are turning points in every insurgency, where the momentum shifts irreversibly in one direction. The regime does everything it can to halt its opponents. It abandons any pretense of caring for human life. It throws aside any remnant of restraint and focuses all its effort on eliminating the threat by simple slaughter. If that doesn’t work, it has nothing left.

Syria shows every sign of having reached, and passed, that point. When a government is willing to indiscriminately murder women and children, not as collateral damage but for the sheer effect of the terror, it has stopped fighting for any cause other than its own skin. And yet the Syrian insurgency hasn’t stopped, hasn’t even diminished. It has grown, in size and bloodshed, and now it’s in Damascus itself.

The New York Times reports that opposition figures claim Thursday was the most lethal day of the civil war, with 190 casualties. The figures can’t be confirmed but other observer groups report similar figures. Whatever the real number, it’s clear the capital has become part of the battlefield.  That puts it on Assad’s very doorstep. Three more generals are said to have been captured, and two shown on videos.  Turkey has moved troops and anti-aircraft guns to the Syrian border. Russia, Assad’s most powerful remaining ally, has stopped insisting the West mind its own business and is now discussing a proposal that stipulates  “a transitional unity government would have to exclude those whose continued presence and participation would undermine the credibility of the transition and jeopardise stability and reconciliation.”  That means Assad and his closest cronies.

So when will it dawn on the dictator that it’s over? That he won’t be able to defeat the insurgents, won’t be able to return peace and repression to the country, won’t be able to go back to the way it was. The key question of the next few weeks will be whether he survives. He could probably still flee the country and live out a comfortable existence in some accommodating  sanctuary. His appalling wife could get back her charge accounts at the best stores in Paris. The kids could be kept in posh private schools. But if he stays, his chances of survival appear slim. Either the rebels get him and execute him, or worried men at the heart of his government try to save their necks by sacrificing his.

Saddam Hussein stuck it out until the end, which for him was a hole in the ground where he was captured by U.S. forces. Iraqis  later hanged him.  Muammar Gaddafi kept running until he landed in a drainage pipe, and was executed by his captors. Hosni Mubarak was pushed out by his generals, who are still jockeying for position with a new replacement government. Tunisia’s Zine El Abidine Ben Ali fled to Saudi Arabia with his family. His wife claims he was betrayed by his security forces; if he ever returns home he faces a sentence of life in prison.

External evidence suggests they all thought they could survive their individual revolts. Unleash the army, issue orders to shoot to kill, ensure everyone knows you’re prepared to sacrifice a thousand lives to save your own, or bring down the entire country, if that’s what it takes to remain in power. Only when someone finally points a weapon at them, or hustles them to the airport, do they finally realize they can’t win.

When do you think it will occur to Assad? Early enough that he lives, or so late that he dies?

National Post

 

[The Bread Guy]

Celebrated ocean explorer and Titanic finder Bob Ballard, working for the Turkish government, has located the bodies of two Turkish pilots shot down by Syria over the eastern Mediterranean last month, the Turkish military said in a statement released Wednesday.

Ballard and his crew aboard his research vessel Nautilus are now working to recover the remains, the statement said. Turkey did not disclose whether the bodies were found in Syrian or international waters, and a Ballard representative aboard the ship declined to comment.

After recovering the bodies, the Nautilus will resume its hunt for the wreckage of the F-4 jet downed by Syria on June 22, the Turkish military statement said.

The Nautilus was anchored in Istanbul preparing for a two-month scientific expedition when the Turkish government asked for Ballard's assistance in its hunt for the U.S.-built jet and the two pilots ....

Washington Post, via Seattle Times, 4 Jul 12