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The Manley Panel on Afghanistan

IN HOC SIGNO said:
I read that article this morning too GAP but I'm not sure I agree that he's doing Dion any favours. If anything he's going to show Dion up as a waffler and he's empowered his natural rival for the leadership, John Manley. Manley would actually be a worthier opponent for Harper. It's all interesting politics but I hope it's good for our mission too, I'd hate to see our fallen dishonoured by petty politicking.

It's a favour if it allows Dion to do a graceful flip-flop and avoid an election which might be disastrous for the Liberal Party of Canada.

Harper might wish to avoid an election that Canadians (as I read the polls) don't want - where he will be (justly) accused of engineering his own defeat. The Conservative political calculus might point to Canadians' growing comfort with Harper and, if the prognostications about a steady, healthy economy for the next few years are believable, Oct 09 might be the best date.

It (both he Manley appointment and the downstream flip=flop, if it occurs) has the added benefit of further diminishing Dion's leadership in the eyes of Canadians.
 
Whatever the backroom maneuvering are, I keep having this sinking feeling that ALL are going to Screw UP the Afghanistan mission in the name of concensus.....from Harper on down...
 
GAP said:
Whatever the backroom maneuvering are, I keep having this sinking feeling that ALL are going to Screw UP the Afghanistan mission in the name of concensus.....from Harper on down...

Not if Harper follows Ruxted's advice. That (Ruxted's proposal) is, essentially, one of the four options Harper recommended to Manley's group.
 
E.R. Campbell said:
Not if Harper follows Ruxted's advice. That (Ruxted's proposal) is, essentially, one of the four options Harper recommended to Manley's group.

But in listening to all four options, all excluded the combat mission with the exception of security for PRT. They all want to get out of combat, thinking, I guess, the tooth fairies will take over. Did I read it wrong?

edited to add: I have NOT heard anywhere, from anyone, of "Staying the course"
 
Gap,

I understand your perfectly rational fear.

But it's not Manley's panel - it's the PMs.

Manley probably has more in common with Harper than
he does with Dion. This has done nothing to close the
chasm between the liberal factions.  It just makes
Dion less relevant. - (Dion Exits stage left)

"Staying the course" would be a bad choice of words for what must be done.
Ruxted's recommendation makes sense. "Finish the job" would be better.

No, I'm  sure this was the right angle for the PM.
The Canadian people need to hear Afghanistan explained
by a group with no appearant political motives.



 
I guess it'll be wait and see. My bet is Harper will bow to public preception and weaken the mission. Harper has supported the mission when it benefited him, right now it is not, thus is expendable.
 
GAP: My comment on option 1: weasely, tries to downplay the combat side of the mission and implies that role will virtually cease by 2009. It says nothing about a serious military commitment to training or development (PRT) after then, much less combat.

Mark
Ottawa
 
GAP and Mark - In my opinion - combat is never and end in and of itself.  It is a means to an end.

Canadians have been told by Jack and the Media that the choice is between combat and something else.  The something else is undefined. 

The choice is false.

Combat is engaged in so as to allow the primary mission to continue.

This panel is to define the primary mission.

And then state the prerequisites for success....

Many of us here believe that Military force, judiciously and appropriately applied, will be a prerequisite for success in Afghanistan for a long while to come.

I would not be surprised if the panel came to the same conclusion.

Despite the joint effort with Liberal-hack Eugene Lang, even Janice Stein knows that.  She stated as much on CBC in a One-on-One interview with Peter Mansbridge.

Without soldiers: no girls in school.
 
Kirkhill: I never consider combat an end in itself, rather in the terms you put it :salute:.  A pity the government's options don't really make the same points.  At the very least, the government looks weasely in not mentioning either "combat" or "security" in its first option, and in that the option suggests we'll be getting out fairly fast after Feb. 09 (again with no mention of those two key words).  It seems simply assumed that training the Afghans will be almost competely success with no need for any significant Canadian security/combat role.  Hence "weasely".

Note this excerpt from John Ivison in the National Post today:
http://www.canada.com/components/print.aspx?id=94a0d3d2-1a95-4f27-8264-02501fcd2342

Whatever the panel recommends, Canada's policy will remain a hostage to negotiations with our NATO allies. Options one, two and three all require another country or countries to take over Canada's place on the line in Kandahar.

The most logical candidates are the British, who have just announced they are drawing down their force in Iraq and may withdraw their 5,000 troops completely by the end of next year. At the same time, there are reports of extra troops and equipment being sent to Helmand province in Afghanistan.

British General David Richards downplayed expectations that a surge in British forces would allow the Canadians to withdraw from a combat role.

"I'm aware of the speculation here, but we need what we're putting in there to make sure we succeed in the task we've currently got (in Helmand). There is no intention of picking up other people's responsibilities," he said...

Mark
Ottawa
 
It would seem I am not the only one who sees this play on words in the mandate. While I want to see "security" or "combat" itemized, only a fool thinks the rest happens without either of them. Politically, Harper may not be able to call a marble a marble, but if he never mentions it, he is also not mandated to follow through on it.

When it all comes down to the crunch, Harper is still first and formost a politician.
 
If we want afghan girls to attend school in Afghanistan, I think that we are going to have to stay there for at least 60-80 years.  So the youth who grow up with equal rights will have grown to appreciate it and then protect it, without us... 
OR, we have to kill every single anti-womens rights person there.  Which I fear would be the majority of males, aged 13-100... and then make sure that the youth of Afghanistan is OK with girls attending school, learning, etc. 
That's how I see it...  but, what the .... would I know..  :skull: 
We have to KILL the part of their mindset that treats girls horribly.  This takes generations.     
Or am I wrong?



 
wade.w said:
If we want afghan girls to attend school in Afghanistan, I think that we are going to have to stay there for at least 60-80 years.  So the youth who grow up with equal rights will have grown to appreciate it and then protect it, without us... 
OR, we have to kill every single anti-womens rights person there.  Which I fear would be the majority of males, aged 13-100... and then make sure that the youth of Afghanistan is OK with girls attending school, learning, etc.   
That's how I see it...   but, what the .... would I know..   :skull: 
We have to KILL the part of their mindset that treats girls horribly.   This takes generations.     
Or am I wrong?

You are wrong.........full stop.  Go take a look at the place of women in Afghan society before the Taliban and get back to me. 
 
It may take generations for some of the Afghans to change their mindset. The Afghan National Army will have to 'keep the peace' while that's occurring.

Our job is, inter alia, to help the Afghan National Army ready itself for that long, hard task. We should be able to do that in five to 15 years - i.e. three to 12 years from now.
 
You are only right in that it will take generations to change some minds, but CDN Aviator is more correct: only some Afghans ever thought that way. Many (most?) believed in rough, relative equality for women.

Afghanistan was never a modern, secular, liberal society and it's not our job to make it into one. It's our job to help the Afghans get to the point where they can make their own decisions, in their own way, about their own future, in relative peace and security. When we have helped the ANA accomplish most of that we can, indeed must go home.
 
"We’ve been doing just that,and trading in our Pearsonian reputation rather than fulfilling the Pearsonian vision."

- No doubt he realizes Pearson was a very political animal as well.  Pearson - a Liberal - put Nuclear warheads on BOMARC SAMs at North Bay ON and La Macaza QC.  Pearson presided over years of our low-level nuclear strike role in Europe and the 1.5 Kiloton warhead Genie equiped CF-101 Voodoos here in Canada.

- The election which saw the Liberals under Pearson defeat the Conservatives under "Dief the Chief" was influenced by U.S. political interference.  It worked.  Somehow, people forget that part of the "Pearsonian vision."
 
E.R. Campbell said:
It may take generations for some of the Afghans to change their mindset. The Afghan National Army will have to 'keep the peace' while that's occurring.

If we go to the southern US, there are still some people who, given the chance, would start wearing sheets, burning crosses and doing some sport hunting some BBD (BigB____Dude).  Consider that emancipation happened in the mid 1860s and Martin Luther King happened in say the mid 1970s.

Why would Afghanistan be any different.
 
Flip said:
Manley probably has more in common with Harper than
he does with Dion. This has done nothing to close the
chasm between the liberal factions.  It just makes
Dion less relevant. - (Dion Exits stage left)

Exactly...it's going to make Dion even more irrelevant than he already is.
 
geo said:
If we go to the southern US, there are still some people who, given the chance, would start wearing sheets, burning crosses and doing some sport hunting some BBD (BigB____Dude).  Consider that emancipation happened in the mid 1860s and Martin Luther King happened in say the mid 1970s.

Why would Afghanistan be any different.

One of the most overriding lessons I learned in my time in Houston, Texas is that there is still a cultural boundary between the Northern United States and the Southern United States.
 
Isn't it interesting that the CTV label Manley as a Hawk? just because he's pro-mission?

Harper picks Liberal hawk to head Afghan panel




Liberal cabinet minister John Manley speaking in Ottawa on Friday, Oct. 12, 2007.

The Canadian Press
 
Updated: Sat. Oct. 13 2007 2:35 PM ET

OTTAWA — Just a few raw weeks after the September 11 attacks, John Manley was already facing questions about what the public might think about Canadian soldiers arriving home in body bags from a new Afghan mission.

Manley, the foreign affairs minister at the time, was indignant.

"Canada does not have a history as a pacifist or neutralist country," he fired back. "Canada has soldiers who are buried all over Europe because we fought in defence of liberty, and we're not about to back away from a challenge now because we think somebody might get hurt."

Manley was often the hawk among the flock of Liberal doves, and Canadian Alliance MPs - who would later convert to Tories - liked to point out the divisions: "We on this side must compliment the Minister of Foreign Affairs for being more in touch with the views of Canadians on the security issues than many of his colleagues appear to be," MP Brian Pallister said during question period.

Prime Minister Stephen Harper was also undoubtedly cognizant of the sharp differences between Manley and others in the Liberal caucus when he appointed Jean Chretien's deputy prime minister to a panel studying the mission.

"I'm very confident that we will get a report that the government will be very comfortable with having a public debate on," Harper told reporters Friday.

If Manley agrees that pulling out of combat in 2009 is premature, his analysis could provoke new divisions within Liberal ranks and hand Harper a valuable weapon should the mission develop into a major election issue.

It wouldn't be the first time Manley turned up on the wrong side of Liberal Leader Stephane Dion. Earlier this year, they publicly disagreed over allowing certain anti-terror provisions to expire from the lawbooks.

Manley told reporters Friday that he had not made up his mind on the mission. Still, he's quoted in last month's issue of Policy Options with well formed views on the good that Canadian soldiers, diplomats and aid workers are doing in Afghanistan. Manley recently visited the country again as a director of CARE Canada.

"Whenever we asked Afghans what they should (the International Security Assistance Force) or Canada should do, they did not hesitate to say we must stay. Without the presence of the international forces, chaos would surely ensue."

He added, "We often seek to define Canada's role in the world. Well, for whatever reason, we have one in Afghanistan. Let's not abandon it too easily. But let's use our hard-earned influence to make sure the job is done."

Manley was asked about those statements Friday and insisted he was not prejudging what Canada should do.

But he made it clear that finding stability for the Afghan people is an issue he's passionate about. In January 2002, he was the first Canadian minister to visit the decaying country in more than 40 years. He arrived just as NATO troops had toppled the Taliban and Hamid Karzai had begun his tenure as president.

In the Liberal caucus, he and deputy prime minister Anne McLellan became the get-tough-on-terrorism standard bearers employed by former prime minister Jean Chretien to push through legislation and policies demanded by the broader public after the Sept.11 attacks.

He is often quoted from that period saying Canada couldn't merely sit among G-8 countries, "and then, when the bill comes, go to the washroom."

"Civilized societies have learned many times before that there is only one way to deal with evil," Manley told the Commons in October 2001, as Canadian soldiers arrived in Afghanistan. "We cannot reason with it, we cannot negotiate with it and we cannot buy time to find a better solution. The only way to deal with evil is to strike at its root, to destroy it and to move on."

When exactly Canadian combat troops should move on, is the question Manley must now grapple with.


 
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