The War in Ukraine

[FJAG]

Moar announcements from the DND info-machine (highlights mine) ....

Minister Blair announces $40 million to provide Ukraine with artillery ammunition at the 20th meeting of the Ukraine Defense Contact Group - Canada.ca

Today, the Honourable Bill Blair, Minister of National Defence, participated via videoconference in the 20th Ukraine Defense Contact Group (UDCG) meeting, hosted by United States Secretary of Defense Lloyd J. Austin III.

www.canada.ca

Also archived here if original link doesn't work.

"several thousand rounds" - or as we in the artillery refer to it: "one day's maintenance load."

 

[The Bread Guy]

Czech's said they need 1.5 billion for these shells and Canada comes to the table with 40 million - basically 1$ per Canadian.

Or, put another way, 2.7% of the needed pot based on ~4% of NATO's total population.

 

[The Bread Guy]

As usual, initial reports caveats apply (not to mention sourcing of some of the info) ...

Canadian commander of volunteer fighter group dies in Ukraine

A Canadian-born commander of the so-called Norman Brigade, a volunteer fighting group in Ukraine, has died.

www.ctvnews.ca

Guerre en Ukraine | Deux combattants québécois fauchés

Deux combattants volontaires québécois partis servir aux côtés des Ukrainiens, dont le commandant d’une unité qui a recruté des dizaines d’Occidentaux depuis le début de la guerre, sont morts en Ukraine au cours des derniers jours. Les deux décès ont rapidement été récupérés par la propagande russe.

www.lapresse.ca

Alain Derasp (commemorative space)

Le 27 février 2024, est décédé subitement en Ukraine, à l’âge de 49 ans et 10 mois, M. Alain Derasp, demeurant à Chicoutimi. Il était le fils de feu madame Renelle Lavoie et de monsieur Michelin Deras

funeraweb.tv

This, from an anti-UKR foreign fighter tracking account (pro-RUS) on Telegram (archived post here) ...

... as well as RUS's embassy in South Africa (post archived here)

 

[The Bread Guy]

As usual, initial reports caveats apply (not to mention sourcing of some of the info) ...

Canadian commander of volunteer fighter group dies in Ukraine

A Canadian-born commander of the so-called Norman Brigade, a volunteer fighting group in Ukraine, has died.

www.ctvnews.ca

Guerre en Ukraine | Deux combattants québécois fauchés

Deux combattants volontaires québécois partis servir aux côtés des Ukrainiens, dont le commandant d’une unité qui a recruté des dizaines d’Occidentaux depuis le début de la guerre, sont morts en Ukraine au cours des derniers jours. Les deux décès ont rapidement été récupérés par la propagande russe.

www.lapresse.ca

Alain Derasp (commemorative space)

Le 27 février 2024, est décédé subitement en Ukraine, à l’âge de 49 ans et 10 mois, M. Alain Derasp, demeurant à Chicoutimi. Il était le fils de feu madame Renelle Lavoie et de monsieur Michelin Deras

funeraweb.tv

(...)

More from x/Twitter ...

https://twitter.com/x/status/1769351653478596790

 

[daftandbarmy]

Going full Infantry be like....

https://twitter.com/x/status/1770202836011491594

 

[Maxman1]

No Russian warships off Crimea coast

There were no Russian warships in the Black Sea and the Sea of Azov as of 6:00 local time on Wednesday, March 20. â Ukrinform.

www.ukrinform.net

 

[Maxman1]

Ukrainian drones “have knocked out 600,000 to 900,00 barrels” of Russia’s daily oil-refining capacity - businessukraine.ua

Industry experts estimate that Ukraine’s campaign of long-range drone strikes on Russia’s energy industry has already succeeded in knocking out between 600,000 and 900,000 barrels of Russia’s daily oil-refining capacity, Bloomberg reports. Speaking at a conference in Houston on March 18, Gunvor...

businessukraine.ua

 

[Rudburg]

Ukrainian drones “have knocked out 600,000 to 900,00 barrels” of Russia’s daily oil-refining capacity - businessukraine.ua

Industry experts estimate that Ukraine’s campaign of long-range drone strikes on Russia’s energy industry has already succeeded in knocking out between 600,000 and 900,000 barrels of Russia’s daily oil-refining capacity, Bloomberg reports. Speaking at a conference in Houston on March 18, Gunvor...

businessukraine.ua

A distinctly Russian version of the Green Transition.

 

[MilEME09]

"several thousand rounds" - or as we in the artillery refer to it: "one day's maintenance load."

current pricing is about $8000 for a 155mm round (used to be $2000, cause capitalism) so this $40 million announcement works out to about 5,000 rounds of 155mm.

 

[Kirkhill]

More from x/Twitter ...

https://twitter.com/x/status/1769351653478596790

I thank him for his service.

 

[Kirkhill]

No Russian warships off Crimea coast

There were no Russian warships in the Black Sea and the Sea of Azov as of 6:00 local time on Wednesday, March 20. â Ukrinform.

www.ukrinform.net

Unified Deep Water System of European Russia - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

Volga–Don Canal - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

NATO’s Black Sea Frontier Is the Southern Shore of the Caspian Sea

View PDF

www.hudson.org

Another useful target set for the Ukrainians. Canal Locks.

 

[Cloud Cover]

Going full Infantry be like....

https://twitter.com/x/status/1770202836011491594

"Surprise, blyat!!!"

Lol!

 

[Kirkhill]

Going full Infantry be like....

https://twitter.com/x/status/1770202836011491594

​

Specifications (TM-62M with MVZ-62 fuze)[edit]​

• Weight: 9.5 kilograms (21 lb)
• Explosive content: 7.5 kilograms (17 lb) of TNT (although sometimes combinations of RDX/TNT/Aluminium or Amatol mixes are used)
• Diameter: 320 millimetres (13 in)
• Height: 128 millimetres (5.0 in)
• Operating pressure: 150 to 550 kilograms (330 to 1,210 lb)

I guess this is what happens when Air Mail fails and you have to resort to Snail Mail.

Personal delivery.

M107 155mm

• Weight as fired: 43.2 kilograms (95 lb)
• Explosive content: TNT 6.86 kilograms (15.1 lb)

 

[Kirkhill]

It seems that the success of drones has as much to do with tactics as it does technology.

The Sea Baby raid targeting the Russian patrol boat Sergei Kotov – off Feodosiya in occupied Crimea on March 5 – seems to be typical of the robotic assaults.

Under the cover of darkness, perhaps half a dozen drones swarmed Sergei Kotov at her anchorage. The Russian crew spotted some of the Sea Babies speeding in from astern of their vessel, and opened fire.

But according to one analysis of a video depicting the attack, a second pack of drones USVs took advantage of the Russian gunners’ distraction and attacked from the unprotected opposite side.

These flanking drones didn’t actually strike Sergei Kotov, it seems. Rather, they herded the Russian vessel into open water just outside Feodosiya. There, another pack of Sea Babies lay in wait. It’s that group of drones that apparently hit and sank the Russian vessel.

As China prepares to invade, only a mighty drone strike armada can save Taiwan

Years of Ukraine-style warship hunting will need to be done in a matter of hours

www.telegraph.co.uk

The same thing has been true of aerial assaults on both sides. The Ukrainians drawing Russian helicopters to the front by launching a ground assault and using the retiring helicopters as cover for their drones. Both sides mixing missiles and drones in high and low speed and altitude attacks along different vectors concentrating on a specific target.

Co-ordination seems to be a key, if not the key.

 

[Kirkhill]

Further to....

That swarms of USVs can defeat manned warships isn’t in doubt. But scale is a factor. The Ukrainian navy has built potentially hundreds of USVs and deployed them to sink, so far, just three of the Black Sea Fleet’s dozens of large warships.

The Chinese navy could muster hundreds of big ships for an invasion of Taiwan. While other Taiwanese and allied forces – submarines, fighter squadrons and ground-based missiles – could contribute to a defensive campaign, it’s still apparent that hundreds of USVs isn’t nearly enough USVs to make much a difference in a naval campaign that could be an order of magnitude bigger and more violent than the current battle for the Black Sea.

Especially considering the problem of time. Kyiv’s fleet is patient, apparently spending weeks plotting courses and planning maneuvers before deploying a swarm of Sea Babies to attack a single Russian vessel.

As China prepares to invade, only a mighty drone strike armada can save Taiwan

Years of Ukraine-style warship hunting will need to be done in a matter of hours

www.telegraph.co.uk

 

[McG]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1771105101626630467

 

[daftandbarmy]

Refinery bingo card (from Silicone Curtain)View attachment 83811

And unlike WW2, the Russians won't be likely to be able to move heavy industry East of the Urals...

 

[GR66]

This opinion piece in RUSI the author suggests that any major conflict between major powers will inevitably evolve into a war of attrition and that Western nations in general are poorly prepared to fight that kind of conflict.

He draws a lot of parallels to both the Ukraine War and WWI and lays out what he sees as the appropriate strategies (both pre-war and during the conflict) that should be followed in order to achieve victory in an attritional fight.

 

[KevinB]

Day 760 - Mar. 24 - Sevastopol hit again, Russia isn't so used to punch back, Sure all those NATO flight hours are benign

Hi guys! We are in a proper Ukraine vs. Russia slugging match right now. For those of you who have been reading these reviews for a while, this means that the really most important development IMO is the basic fact that the good guys are trading blows with the bad guys on pretty much an equal basis.

open.substack.com

 

[KevinB]

And

Day 760 - Mar. 24 - continued

NATO involvement? FlightRadar is one of the coolest internet resources out there, and right before the Ukrainian strikes went in against Sevastopol, speaking of the US Air Force, there were two US military aircraft in the Black Sea air space flying around with their transponders turned on, and...

open.substack.com