The War in Ukraine

[McG]

Did it though? Not the first time Putin’s pulled his dick out only for us to see it’s small and floppy.

Russia’s ICBM arsenal was built to fight the US. If they have depleted everything to the point that they need to dip into that capability in an attempt to look strong, the message being sent is actually the opposite.

Of course, there are other signs of weakness.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1859583912273498441

 

[Rudburg]

I'd like to know what Russia told the US, was it hey we are doing a missile test don't think we are nuking you. Or was it hey we are launching a irbm into Ukraine but don't worry it has no warhead

The US and Russia have a longstanding practice of notifying each other of ballistic missile launches.

Sattelites monitor for ballistic missile launches and any will be detected within seconds; if the other party is surprised, it could lead to a dangerous situation.

 

[Retired AF Guy]

Did it though? Not the first time Putin’s pulled his dick out only for us to see it’s small and floppy.

Not an expert by any means, but it looks like the RVs broke up in re-entry. Plus, no explosions when the RVs impacted.

 

[suffolkowner]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1859512947095077204

finally!

 

[Quirky]

Quirky wants you to understand - if she did not want to be beaten & raped by the biggest bully in the room, she should have put-out instead of talking to other men. Also, everyone else in the room should council her that the beating might end if she stops resisting. Good men should meekly bow heads and avoid eye contact, because they might get the punches otherwise.

That’s exactly what happened. Weak US administrations and weak Presidents allowed Putin to invade Crimea and Ukraine. They avoided eye contact in fear. All that is irrelevant now, you can’t change the past, only the future. 45 million+ Americans voted for trump in part to end wars. I hope he can before more Ukrainian territory is lost.

 

[daftandbarmy]

And the response, apparently by drone...

https://twitter.com/x/status/1859605015989551337

 

[YZT580]

There is nothing to suggest otherwise that this will be the eventual outcome. With Trump being elected the likelihood of Ukraine losing some of its land for any peace deal is high.



Canadians didn't get that message. Defense spending and more importantly, personnel and equipment, hasn't improved since the war started. We are further behind now than we've ever been. Is there an appetite to increase to 2% when so many are struggling with COL and wanting to keep their social safety nets? Doubt it.

might be. With our current press coverage one would never know for sure. There are certainly a large number of people at the waterfountaion following the events in Ukraine and a lot of letters to the editors as well

 

[MilEME09]

Not an expert by any means, but it looks like the RVs broke up in re-entry. Plus, no explosions when the RVs impacted.

They broke up because the inert weights for tests aren't heat shielded for reentry. It's cheaper

 

[Skysix]

I know why they didn't. It was their choice.

You are being logically inconsistent

 

[Retired AF Guy]

They broke up because the inert weights for tests aren't heat shielded for reentry. It's cheaper

And that would explain no explosions; inert weights, not warheads with explosives?

 

[KevinB]

They broke up because the inert weights for tests aren't heat shielded for reentry. It's cheaper

And that would explain no explosions; inert weights, not warheads with explosives?

From my understanding it was loaded with a large unitary warhead of conventional explosives. Which doesn’t appear to have been (properly?) designed for re-entry.

The unitary large warhead concept was designed after the INF treaty was torn up. As loading the RS-26 with a much heavier warhead reduced its range to the Intermediate range.

The Russians have launched test warheads at Ukraine before, but not from a ICBM/IBM.

 

[Lumber]

Imagine reading this tagline/post a few years ago:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1859723776977666478

 

[dimsum]

Imagine reading this tagline/post a few years ago:

I could apply that comment to a few things…

waves hands vaguely

 

[dimsum]

From my understanding it was loaded with a large unitary warhead of conventional explosives. Which doesn’t appear to have been (properly?) designed for re-entry.

The unitary large warhead concept was designed after the INF treaty was torn up. As loading the RS-26 with a much heavier warhead reduced its range to the Intermediate range.

The Russians have launched test warheads at Ukraine before, but not from a ICBM/IBM.

From my understanding, overloading a type of missile and reducing its range doesn’t make it “another” missile.

e.g. an RS-26 is an ICBM. If it’s overloaded so that particular missile is only at IRBM-range, it doesn’t designate it an IRBM because tomorrow’s RS-26 could still go to ICBM range.

 

[KevinB]

From my understanding, overloading a type of missile and reducing its range doesn’t make it “another” missile.

e.g. an RS-26 is an ICBM. If it’s overloaded so that particular missile is only at IRBM-range, it doesn’t designate it an IRBM because tomorrow’s RS-26 could still go to ICBM range.

Agreed.

 

[daftandbarmy]

From my understanding, overloading a type of missile and reducing its range doesn’t make it “another” missile.

e.g. an RS-26 is an ICBM. If it’s overloaded so that particular missile is only at IRBM-range, it doesn’t designate it an IRBM because tomorrow’s RS-26 could still go to ICBM range.

Interesting...

What do we know about Russia’s ‘experimental’ ballistic missile? Explainer

The design of the missile fired at Ukraine is based on a longer-range Russian intercontinental ballistic missile, or ICBM, the US military says, and can carry nuclear warheads

www.theguardian.com

 

[The Bread Guy]

... If they have depleted everything to the point that they need to dip into that capability in an attempt to look strong, the message being sent is actually the opposite ...

I'm going to guess it wasn't as much "this is all we have left" as much as showing UKR & its backers, "see what ELSE we can use?" @brihard summed it up well re: execution not exactly matching expectation, but they did manage to show there's still "that" button that can be pushed.

 

[Rudburg]

From my understanding it was loaded with a large unitary warhead of conventional explosives. Which doesn’t appear to have been (properly?) designed for re-entry.

The unitary large warhead concept was designed after the INF treaty was torn up. As loading the RS-26 with a much heavier warhead reduced its range to the Intermediate range.

The Russians have launched test warheads at Ukraine before, but not from a ICBM/IBM.

I read one assessment that concluded that some of the objects were decoys. These are designed to confuse and draw fire from ABM systems, and aren't required to survive re-entry.

I'm not sure if I believe that (it wasn't the best OSINT source), but it is a possibility.

If true, the real warhead(s) would have come in first, as they are moving at extreme speeds (Mach 20+) during the terminal phase of flight. The decoys would have followed down later as they tumbled to earth.

 

[Rudburg]

Imagine reading this tagline/post a few years ago:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1859723776977666478

"I'm from the future. Pierre Trudeau's son is PM, and the guy from The Apprentice is president. The North Koreans are fighting in Ukraine."

"Wow, that's crazy."

"Also, the Detroit Lions are leading the NFC."

"Okay, now I know you are bullshitting me."

 

[The Bread Guy]

France hasn't ever been keen on externally deployed nukes, and the whole NP issue means they cannot be seen to help Poland.

More on that POL being able to take the lead thing ...

How Trump will transform Poland

unherd.com