Tory minority in jeopardy as opposition talks coalition. Will there be another election?

[Flip]

Harper's provocative miscalculation appears, on the evidence, to be entirely orthogonal to this crisis

Miscalculation? I never thought so.  A conservative is "invited" to listen and record the not so veiled threat that the government will be brought down ASAP.

Harper knows that It's better to be challenged sooner rather than later as Dion is still the potential rival.

Flaherty could have stood to order lunch on the day of the update and the knives would be out.

I think the update message was intended to insure that the conservative government could not be extorted and that the coalition would not yet have their gears greased.

crisis = danger + opportunity    ;D

but on balance (until proven otherwise) one should still conclude he acted irrationally.

He acted aggresively, would be (I think) more consistent with our PM.
I also think that the "coalition" has had it's moment and will be a sad memory by the time the budget is read.  

 

[Reccesoldier]

How is it that you know what the PM discussed with the GG?

You misunderstood me.  He said that in and out of parliament in reference to the three idiots.  I of course, have no idea what he said to Mme Jean.

 

[Reccesoldier]

The three minority party leaders form a coalition and offer to form a government, within legal and acceptable parliamentary regulations, and people *****.

The Prime Minister asks for and receives permission to suspend Parliament, within legal and acceptable parliamentary regulations, and people *****.

Is there anything a Canadian politician can do that won't excite indignation in someone?  Indignation doesn't make their decisions wrong/"undemocratic"/illegal/etc., it only expresses the individual's dislike of the decision taken.

What does this have to do with my post?

Indignation?  I said (and you even quoted me) that I wished he'd called an election.  Please don't ascribe emotional excess to my posts where I don't write it in myself. thanks

Perhaps if your offended that I've offered my opinion you should create a site where only you get to do that.

 

[vangemeren]

I think it was a combined conspiracy to get an extra long Christmas Recess, but that's because I'm that cynical.

If I were the Liberal party I would turf Dion ASAP because come the end of January if an election is called or a chance for a coalition comes up they would need a leader that will last more than 3 months.

 

[ModlrMike]

I too think that the miscalculation belongs to the opposition. Proceeding from the perspective that the best defence is a strong offence, Mr Harper has very quickly embarrassed the opposition and virtually eliminated any chance of a coalition come January 26th. Mr Flaherty could have introduced a modest spending increase, devoid of partisanship, and the opposition would still have attempted to bring the government down. It will be interesting to see what the new budget holds. If I were Mr Harper et al, I would make a record (not necessarily a recording) of every offer of assistance made by the opposition over the break. If he can show that they have no intention of cooperating, or that he has cooperated with them, then he will have taken away their last argument.

As I said before, I think the Canadian public expected that a minority government would be given the chance to govern before being defeated. The timing of the arranged marriage shows us that this was never intended. As the public now knows, the three stooges conspired immediately after the election to bring down the government, and the NDP tape is the smoking gun. Those on the left who cry hidden agenda would be best suited to looking in the mirror. I distinctly remember hearing Mr Dion say that he would never form a coalition with the NDP [liNK]. Talk about lying to the public.

 

[Brad Sallows]

Although a political funding cut is a good measure to hamstring the other parties, it makes more sense to imagine it was chiefly aimed at the Bloc, which obtains the greatest fraction of its funding from the per-vote subsidy.  Quebec is where the Conservatives really came up short, and their primary antagonist is the Bloc.  Unfortunately, with the NDP and Liberals near broke, there is too much potential collateral damage for them to tolerate the measure.  In any other circumstances, the three national parties might cooperate to throttle the separatist party.

 

[SeaKingTacco]

Brad,

That is an interesting proposition- that Harper intended to go after the Bloc's life blood - federal campaign funds- and ended up goading the other two parties unintentionally.  Is it possible that the Liberal and NDP financial situations are many orders more precarious than has been publicly admitted and Harper stumbled into the middle of a bad situation which the opposition then projected onto him?  It would explain the reaction.

Of course it could have been deliberate, too.  Removing the public service right to strike seemed deliberately aimed at triggering a stroke amongst the NDP.

I am swaying between thinking that Harper is a "cold and deliberate genius" and that "stupidity got him into this and blind luck and oppositional ineptitude got him out".

Anyway, I think the prorogation is a good thing.  It lets everyone cool off and learn how to be an adult again; it lets Canada see if the "coalition" can actually hang together 6 weeks.  If figure if they can muster the votes at Budget time to defeat the Conservatives- fair enough- they can govern.

 

[Brad Sallows]

What Harper proposed, any reasonable person could have guessed would poke all three of the opposition parties, hard - ideologically, if not fiscally.  Even if the financial statements of parties are not public knowledge, there are enough educated guesses floating around as to costs of campaigns, conventions, leadership bids, etc for a decent estimate of the situation to be made (donations and per-vote funding must be well-known).  The other measures were guaranteed to set off the NDP, if not the Liberals and Bloc.

I can still see only three reasons:
1) Harper failed to see what a reasonable person should have.
2) Harper expected at least one party to go along, having guessed that none could afford another election.
3) Spoiling attack.

The last can be risky and messy, but is better than allowing your opponent to pick his time as well as his ground.

 

[ballz]

The coalition, mainly the Liberals, are in shambles right now. Liberal MP Jim Karigiannis was just on TV tearing Dion a new one, and made a pretty crude (and I say that with love) remark about the whole French/English thing & Dion's poor english all at once. The reporter asked something along the lines of whether or not Karigiannnis told Dion this (stuff that he was telling the media) or something, and good ol Jim replied along the lines of "I guess my french isn't good enough." I can't remember the exact quote because I was scribbling down the MP's name, but I have a feeling it will be replayed over and over again anyway.

Also, 2 seconds before that on another channel, I was watching Bob Rae get hammered by somebody about the Liberal caucus being very divided, to which Rae sat there and basically said they are all 100% on the same page and that any suggestion otherwise is just plain wrong.

All in all, Karigiannis is my new favorite MP and I suspect he'll be an independant tomorrow ;D

 

[Reccesoldier]

I could also see Harper doing it because the optics are something one could fight an election on.  And knowing as they did that the NDP and Bloc were up to dirty tricks, they needed that one issue to ride in on.   Look for a conservative, but generous budget in January.  And watch the pieces fall in the Conservative corner.

Edited to add.  It looks like my previous post might have been close to the mark as far as public opinion is concerned.  though the why's for the leap in support are anyones guess.  A PDF of the Ekos poll can be found here.  http://www.ekos.com/admin/articles/CBC4Dec2008.pdf

 

[The_Falcon]

Reading this article on citynews.ca

http://www.citynews.ca/news/news_29797.aspx

Coalition Leaders Angry That Harper Has Temporarily Won The Game of Survivor: Ottawa
Thursday December 4, 2008
CityNews.ca Staff
In the game of Survivor: Ottawa, Stephen Harper hasn't been voted off the island.

The judge in this high stakes political game of outwit, outplay and outlast was Governor General Michaelle Jean, who granted the Prime Minister's request to prorogue Parliament until January, in order to prevent a coalition of opposition parties from taking over in the House of Commons.

The other contestants in this drama can't say they're especially surprised by the outcome - no Governor General has ever refused such a request from a Prime Minister - but they are disappointed.

They believe Harper has lost the confidence of the House by not addressing the faltering economy, and is buying himself time to avoid an inevitable fate - the day his minority folds.

While Harper has pledged to "work together" with his foes, they're convinced this is a dark day in Canadian history.

"We must realize the enormity of what has happened here today," Liberal Leader Stephane Dion responds. "For the first time in the history of Canada, the prime minister of Canada is running away from the Parliament of Canada."

NDP chief Jack Layton accuses the Conservative leader of establishing an Iron Curtain around the nation's capital. "What he's doing right now is trying to lock the door of Parliament so that the elected people cannot speak and cannot throw him out of office, so he can protect his job," he charges. "And now he's coming forward with an element of contrition, and saying 'well, maybe now I'll listen to you.' Well, I don't think Canadians trust him."

As to the offer of working together, Layton insists the coalition is just delayed - not dead. "If he brings forward some interesting ideas in the weeks to come, we can take those good ideas and adopt them as part of the coalition government."
The Bloc Quebecois's Gilles Duceppe, whose presence in the alliance deal has upset Conservatives and many voters, calls Jean's ruling an 'immoral decision.' "We don't believe him," he fumes. "We don't have confidence in him."

The opposition may have to take a month off and lick their wounds, denied the expected confidence vote that had been expected for next Monday. But while they're down for now, they're not out. Harper has pledged to bring forth an early budget when what's sure to be a raucous Parliament finally returns on January 26th.

Budgets are traditionally matters of confidence and the opposition will still get their chance to vote him off the island when the Survivor: Parliament reality show returns without an immunity challenge early in the new year

I bolded that line from Taliban Jack, as it's quite releaving.  If that doesn't spell out loud and clear for those left leaner's around here that Layton is only looking to grab power, I don't know what will.

 

[ballz]

Yeah Jack can definately taste it by now. He's way too thrilled to finally be more then some background noise, he's not going to be the reason the coalition fails thats for sure.

 

[Kirkhill]

Thanks for that lead Hatchet Man.  It pointed out this link which may be even more revealing.

Here seems to be another proximate driver of events - The Unions are more than mildly agitated.

Unions Infuriated By Governor General's Conservative Lifeline
Thursday December 4, 2008
CityNews.ca Staff
They heard about the decision from Ottawa and they hung their heads. 

But it wasn't members of the Opposition parties thinking about what might have been.

These were reps from the major labour unions, who now fear what will become of their members as the economy and their job prospects take a dive and the government takes a holiday.

The news that the Governor General had agreed to prorogue Parliament for seven weeks may have put smiles on the faces of Conservatives, but for those seeking aid to the rapidly melting auto industry, it was the worst result possible.

They accuse Harper of not caring about the industry and the thousands of jobs associated with it. And they were desperate for the coalition to win, after the three leaders promised immediate help.

"Quite frankly, this prime minister has given those communities and our workers, their members, the back of the hat," gripes Dave Coles of the Communications, Energy and Paper Workers.

Ken Lewenza of the Canadian Auto Workers bowed his head in disappointment (top left) after learning of the announcement. "I think it's a very sad day for democracy in Canada," he proclaims, the pain evident on his face.

"I would say to the Governor-General today with the greatest amount of respect, that you made a very poor decision on behalf of Canadians," Coles chides. 

The Tories are expected to hand down a budget in late January, but the union leaders say that's far too late for many of their workers.

Still, there was some good news for a few in the industry Thursday. Toyota opened its new plant in Woodstock, complete with dignitaries from the home office in Japan, Premier Dalton McGuinty and Federal Industry Minister Tony Clement - but not the Prime Minister, who was getting his request answered in Ottawa.

It's one of the few bright spots for autoworkers, with 1,200 new jobs and hundreds of other spin-off positions created as a result of the plant's presence. 

But experts concede it's the rare silver lining in an automotive sky filled with clouds. "Unions had their peak employment at 1.6 million workers," reveals industry analyst Dennis Desrosiers. "And today it's under 400,000. So unions are going the way of the dodo bird."

But it's the Conservatives who the unions want to see extinct. Thanks to what happened at Rideau Hall on Thursday, that's not going to happen - at least for the next month.

Big 3 - Money - Workers - Money - Unions - Money - NDP - Money - Jack - Gilles - Stephane - LPC

Without the Big 3 there is no CAW (Buzz Hargrove's Alma Mater).  Without the CAW, where is the NDP. 

Not to mention Taliban Jack spent heavily and promised greatly.  Having laboured mightily he ultimately delivered a mouse.....  Stephane isn't the only pol with his neck in a wringer.

Gawd, I do luv my mixed metaphorical cliches.    Heh, it speeds up communication.

 

[Kirkhill]

And that, and the info that Toyota is opening a plant in Ontario, led me to this: (From Back in May)

Machinists file for union vote at Toyota Canada

The International Association of Machinists says it has enough support to represent workers and gain union recognition for the first time at Toyota in Canada.
  Tony Van Alphen
Business Reporter

Mar 14, 2008

The International Association of Machinists says it has enough support to represent workers and gain union recognition for the first time at Toyota in Canada.
The union announced yesterday that it had signed up enough workers and applied to the Ontario Labour Relations Board for a formal certification vote at the sprawling Toyota Motor Manufacturing Canada assembly plant in Cambridge, which employs about 4,000 production and administrative staff.

Under Ontario labour law, a union needs signatures of 40 per cent of employees in a bargaining unit to request an immediate vote which the government would supervise. More than 50 per cent of the plant's workers would need to vote in favour of the union for formal recognition as their bargaining agent.

"I'm very confident we have the support to win the vote," said Ian Morland, the union's lead organizer. "It will be in the next week."

If the machinists group is successful, it would mark the first time that a union has cracked a major Japanese automaker in North America.

The machinists union started an organizing drive about five months ago after the 2007 pullout of the Canadian Auto Workers which had made several unsuccessful attempts during the last 15 years.

Morland said support for his union has improved steadily and began gaining significant momentum in January.

"Toyota is a great company but workers are looking for protection because of the uncertainties in the industry," Morland said. "The timing was also right for a union."

He added the machinists union took a softer approach than the CAW in trying to convince workers to sign cards.

A Toyota spokesperson could not be reached for comment.......

The CAW represents more than 35,000 workers at General Motors, Ford and Chrysler in Canada. It also has another 2,000 members at CAMI Automotive in Ingersoll, Ont., a joint venture between GM and Suzuki of Japan.

However, the CAW has been unable to establish itself at the Toyota and Honda assembly plants since their arrival in Ontario more than two decades ago.

The United Steelworkers union is currently trying to organize Honda's assembly operations in Alliston after the CAW could not make inroads.

The UAW in the United States has also failed organizing big offshore-based vehicle companies. However, it represents employees at Nummi Inc., a joint venture between Toyota and GM in California.

In May the CAW had 35,000 dues paying members.  Today it has fewer and is staring at still fewer in the near future.

Meanwhile Toyota and Honda are positioned to pick up the slack if we can't buy GMs, Fords or Chryslers - AND - there will still be jobs for autoworkers and mechanics and salesmen and marketers and advertisers - BUT - the CAW will have still fewer members -  and the NDP will have no prospect of reversing campaign financing laws allowing Unions to fill their coffers....


The Machinists did not have the support to Unionize Toyota ..... Toyota built a new plant. Which was noticed by the International Herald Tribune.

 

[Kirkhill]

And another comment before I call it quits for the night:

Jane Taber reports that Bob Rae grabbed the mike from Dion in caucus to say that he hadn't pushed hard enough and that the Libs needed to get behind the Coalition.

Meanwhile Ignatieff, displaying prudence/cowardice/anything-but-leadership, almost couldn't bring himself to sign the document that supported the Coalition, but ultimately did..... as the very last member.

Edward - There you have the rags of the tent covering the two wings of the LPC.

Laurier, St-Laurent, Turner, Ignatieff (not exactly a progression of increasing strength)

King, Trudeau, Chretien, Rae......  With the note that Trudeau and Rae and Jack and Duceppe all shared and share a common socialist world view.

....At the LSE a Canadian classmate regarded him as "a little rich left-winger – but enormously interesting" and "an intellectual dilettante." The same classmate also recalls that "there was always a slight aura of the playboy about him."

At the LSE Trudeau studied under, and was greatly inspired by, the great socialist economist Harold Laski. Trudeau soon became known to his friends as a Fabian socialist. From Laski he adopted (and maintained through the rest of his life) the strategy of advancing socialism via the ballot box, which was the much better road to power in established democracies rather than revolutionary Marxism. The strategy is summed up by Laski as being "permeation [by socialists] of existing political parties rather than the creation of a separate political party." In later years Trudeau and his Quebec associates followed this strategy to the letter when they "permeated" the Liberal Party, were elected to power, and then implemented their socialist policies through the machinery of the federal government for some sixteen years....

Source

 

[Zell_Dietrich]

What Harper proposed, any reasonable person could have guessed would poke all three of the opposition parties, hard - ideologically, if not fiscally.  Even if the financial statements of parties are not public knowledge, there are enough educated guesses floating around as to costs of campaigns, conventions, leadership bids, etc for a decent estimate of the situation to be made (donations and per-vote funding must be well-known).  The other measures were guaranteed to set off the NDP, if not the Liberals and Bloc.

I can still see only three reasons:
1) Harper failed to see what a reasonable person should have.
2) Harper expected at least one party to go along, having guessed that none could afford another election.
3) Spoiling attack.

The last can be risky and messy, but is better than allowing your opponent to pick his time as well as his ground.

Sometimes the simplest explanation is the best.  In the last house the Tories put through bill after bill and measure after measure because the Liberals refused top trigger an election.  The thought that just after the election would be the best time to push through the measures the opposition would despise the most.  They bet that they could keep playing the same game,  the same way. 

The NDP expected this and Layton made arrangements do that the Liberals would have an option other than getting rolled by the Tories.  This arrangement,  while fairly well known in Bloc was kept quite secret in the NDP,  (dippers can't keep a secret )  So when it was announced Layton had to inform his party of what deals have been made.  (I think the PMO's office released a secret tape of one of those calls) 

There is a split inside the Liberals.  Some are angry that Dion, who performed so poorly, still gets to be Prime Minister  Others are caught between Ray and Ignatiff.  Remembering the damage done by Martin to those who backed the wrong horse,  many are scared.  Ray I think sees this as an opportunity to help prevent or at least lessen the pain many Canadians will feel.  (Most don't feel it yet,  but a storm is coming)  Ignatiff... I have no idea what he is thinking.  Having read some of his publications I am glad he is being quiet. 

Now as for the precedent of a Prime Minister being allowed to Progue Parliament to avoid a confidence vote.  I think that this power is now open to even more abuse than we have seen.  The structure and history of our legislative/executive Branch is designed so that there wont ever be any impasses or stale mates.  By allowing the prime minister to effectively hit the pause button and then go and do whatever he wants,  we create a situation where the government is not answerable to Parliament.

It is dangerous,  and a waste of time and money.  When Prime Minister Dion speaks with the GG he should advise her that her decision was contrary to the spirit, traditions of the Canadian government and advise her that the another Governor General might better serve Canada.  Yes,  I know I sound way out there, but it is my honest opinion.

 

[vonGarvin]

I heard on the radio that Jack Layton said, with no hyperbole, of course, that the PM had taken away his right to vote in the house.  I think that Jack forgot that on occasion, he had done the same to members of the NDP in the House of Commons.


(One occasion in particular was on the same-sex marriage vote in the House.  One NDP MP voted against it, and she was promptly punished by Mr. Layton for not voting along party lines.  She countered that her constituents' voices were contrary to this one piece).

Anyway, Hyperbole is an awesome thing.


Now, back to your corners! ;D

 

[Reccesoldier]

Now as for the precedent of a Prime Minister being allowed to Progue Parliament to avoid a confidence vote.  I think that this power is now open to even more abuse than we have seen.  The structure and history of our legislative/executive Branch is designed so that there wont ever be any impasses or stale mates.  By allowing the prime minister to effectively hit the pause button and then go and do whatever he wants,  we create a situation where the government is not answerable to Parliament.

It is dangerous,  and a waste of time and money.  When Prime Minister Dion speaks with the GG he should advise her that her decision was contrary to the spirit, traditions of the Canadian government and advise her that the another Governor General might better serve Canada.  Yes,  I know I sound way out there, but it is my honest opinion.

Since this "precedence" myth has been summed up so well by another much bigger brain than mine I'll just quote it

the GG did what every GG in the history of Canada has done before, prorogued parliament at the request of the Prime Minister of the day.  It is not, by custom, a prerogative of the Crown to refuse a suspension of a sitting of the House.  There is no precedent set because there is no precedent to set.  The radical departure, here, would be in handing power over to a political leader, Stephane Dion, who had been thoroughly repudiated by the electorate less than two months before.

 http://godscopybook.blogs.com/gpb/2008/12/begin-the-beguine-.html

 

[Edward Campbell]

The G-G's decision is simultaneously good for the country and no harm to the constitution, which no one asserts has been violated in any way.  Convention and customary practices originate and evolve.
...

That's quite true but I still agree with Zell_Dietrich who said: "... as for the precedent of a Prime Minister being allowed to Progue Parliament to avoid a confidence vote.  I think that this power is now open to even more abuse than we have seen.  The structure and history of our legislative/executive Branch is designed so that there wont ever be any impasses or stale mates.  By allowing the prime minister to effectively hit the pause button and then go and do whatever he wants,  we create a situation where the government is not answerable to Parliament."

The Sovereign's first duty is to ensure (with the odd exception, such as a general election) that she (the country) has a prime minister who has the confidence of parliament. Mme Jean has not done that. From mid Oct to end Nov we had a PM with a presumptive vote of confidence. Now we have a situation where the only reasonable presumption must be that PM Harper does not have the confidence of parliament and, therefore, his capacity to advise the sovereign (govern in her name) is missing.

 

[karl28]

                I hope that if we as Canadains have to go back to the poles in the next couple of months cause of the current situation .  That the next Government will have the strength to form a majority so that way we can avoid this mess and get on to running the country .