Gotta be a lot of LPC MPs in ridings that should be winnable but are now in question who are eyeing the situation and trying to figure out what power they may wield in the party.
Trudeau Popularity - or not. Nanos research
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OldSolduer
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I certainly hope the adults return to the party. We've seen what the kids are like - vain, not very well versed in finance, or global affairs, defence etc,
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Major Kong was a patriot and the consummate public servant. JT not so much.
Now, would I like to see His Nibs ride a nuke? Fucking A, I would.
Haggis
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The margin was slim, only 2 percentage points (590 votes). The riding could flip back red in the general election.
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Indeed, but was looking more at the “Ride ‘er in!” aspect.
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Turnout ( 43.52% ) a bit down from last time ( 65.48% ).
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Big for a by-election, however.
Fabius
Sr. Member
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This is true but it’s still concerning if your the LPC.
The average turnout for the last 20 years during a general election has been about 55-60,000. Of that the LPC has generally held in around 55% support.
The 36,962 votes cast is maybe only 60% of what we would see in a general election. However the Conservatives this time received 15,555 votes which is about the same as they get in the general elections.
What happened to the LPC votes? Did they switch or did they stay home?
Given the LPC messaging that the choice between them and the Conservatives is an existential one, if their voters aren’t buying in and staying home that’s as concerning as them switching for the LPC.
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Quirky
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Canadian team in SCF of game 7...... Vote or watch hockey? Hmmmmm
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Team sports are an escape from team politics.
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Too bloody bad. They performed like trained seals and were controlled by the PMO.
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This was a rock solid Liberal riding for 30 years. This is a hugely concerning bellwether for the LPC. It’s one of those ridings where if it’s in play, almost anything is in play.
daftandbarmy
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Wakeup call administered...
Justin Trudeau gets a wakeup call
A stunning loss in the special election amplifies questions about prime minister’s future.The heat just cranked up on Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, following a surprise defeat to his party’s candidate in a special election for a seat long considered safe.
The staggering loss that comes amid Canada’s affordability crisis and swelling desire for political change will only amp up the pressure on Trudeau to resign for the good of his party.
Trudeau’s agony places him in the company of a long list of sinking incumbent governments around the world who left the global pandemic with one foot in the political grave, from U.K. Tory PM Rishi Sunak on track to get obliterated next week, to France’s Emmanuel Macron scrambling for survival and President Joe Biden in a dogfight against Donald Trump.
Brad Sallows
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Read pollsters' musings about the threshold of victory. They are the people most likely to have some notion of how to correct for the battlefield differences (by-election vs general). If they end up saying something like "a narrow LPC win would mean the LPC is in trouble", then the LPC may be in deep trouble.
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The equivalent would be a CPC riding in rural Alberta or Saskatchewan suddenly flipping Liberal. It would indicate serious problems to the Party.
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The arrogance is strong in that one.
Is there anyone left in the LPC who is not on Team Trudeau that has nor been purged? There might not be any to mount a challenge.
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Whispers DiTullio:
To tell you the truth, I'm a little concerned.
Frank Sheeran:
[narrating] Whenever anybody says they're a little concerned, they're very concerned.
Whispers DiTullio:
As a matter of fact, I'm really more than a little concerned.
Frank Sheeran:
[narrating] And when they say they're more than a little concerned, they're desperate.
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