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Trudeau Popularity - or not (various polling, etc.)

Lack of followup, preplanning or measurement of outcomes is a favourite refrain from "The Line" regarding many Canadian government actions. It's like, "we are the good people and all of our ideas and policies are brilliant! So why would we measure the effectiveness of our brilliance when it is already so brilliant!!!"
I’d say, in this instance, it’s pushback from folks (homeowners in the area generally) who don’t want low-income housing to be built near them, then Pikachu-face when they see more unhoused people near them.
 
People do choose though, and although it may be unfair to label their choices as stupid we can’t ignore that choices have consequences.
If a voter has chosen to support and prioritize decriminalizing certain drugs over sound fiscal policies that is their right.
However I would argue that they need to own responsibility for the economic consequences of their decision, getting upset that a politician did exactly what the voter supported repeatedly due to their own values is foolish.
This is a good post.

A choice to support decriminalizing certain drugs over sound fiscal policies is certainly a choice, some might say it was a stupid choice.
 
People who vote "for" (as opposed to voting motivated primarily by concerns of "against") are usually voting "for" something specific. But all the specific things are part of a package. To support one is to support all.
 
Not a majority of Canadians at large. 39%, 33% and 32% respectively in the last 3 elections were stupid enough to think he was a good leader.
Majority of Canadians who voted =/= "Canadians at large", especially when about 1/3 of those who could vote in those elections didn't. Also, that sorta blows the "a real majority of Canadians didn't even vote for him" argument out of the water, doesn't it? ;)

Meanwhile, Canadian Press overview of PMJT's podcast shows he's still rockin' the "they just don't understand what a good job we're doing" and "PP bad" narratives. We'll see if that alone works (my bet: nope ...)
 
People who vote "for" (as opposed to voting motivated primarily by concerns of "against") are usually voting "for" something specific. But all the specific things are part of a package. To support one is to support all.
Yup, and that makes things tricky.

I am a fiscal conservative but most definitely not a social conservative. So I didn’t, in good conscience, vote for the CPC last time.

What should happen (but it won’t because people won’t like the result) is just to have a randomized survey of statements and see where you fit in the political spectrum. Stuff like “do you support X” without any specific party affiliation.

I think people will be surprised at where they actually fall.
 
I am a fiscal conservative but most definitely not a social conservative. So I didn’t, in good conscience, vote for the CPC last time.
Was it the LPC threat of abortion or gun control that made you not vote CPC. Because those are bullshit tropes the LPC trot out on every election. But I suspect you know that, right?
Also what made you think Erin O'Toole was more of a social conservative than Stephen Harper, who as you remember had a majority government and did nothing to limit abortions in Canada. BTW, I suspect that you also know that the LPC has had had numerous opportunities to enshrine abortion rights but have done nothing as well.
 
Was it the LPC threat of abortion or gun control that made you not vote CPC. Because those are bullshit tropes the LPC trot out on every election. But I suspect you know that, right?
Also what made you think Erin O'Toole was more of a social conservative than Stephen Harper, who as you remember had a majority government and did nothing to limit abortions in Canada. BTW, I suspect that you also know that the LPC has had had numerous opportunities to enshrine abortion rights but have done nothing as well.

I expect an answer all over the map to this.
 
"BTW, I suspect that you also know that the LPC has had had numerous opportunities to enshrine abortion rights but have done nothing as well."

Here's why nothing is "enshrined": statutes are subject to Charter litigation. The courts can't assert their dominance and strike down legislation that does not exist. The courts would need a reason to revisit and revise their own jurisprudence on the matter in order to reverse course (if they wanted to). Currently there is no litigation pathway to attempt it, and Parliament (and I suspect a large majority of the public that is attentive to this issue) is fine with not creating such a path. Short of creative lawyering or blatantly stupid politicking there will be no new abortion statutes in Canada.
 
Was it the LPC threat of abortion or gun control that made you not vote CPC. Because those are bullshit tropes the LPC trot out on every election. But I suspect you know that, right?
Also what made you think Erin O'Toole was more of a social conservative than Stephen Harper, who as you remember had a majority government and did nothing to limit abortions in Canada. BTW, I suspect that you also know that the LPC has had had numerous opportunities to enshrine abortion rights but have done nothing as well.
O’Toole lost vs Poilievre because he was trying to govern from the centre. If he was the CPC leader I likely would have voted for them.

That being said, I have said that I lean more left now than before. My comments on the refugee hotels in another thread should be proof of that. I ack that I’m privileged enough to be making enough money where I don’t mind paying more in taxes to help out the less fortunate in our society.

As for abortion, until recently the US would have laughed if someone said that Roe v. Wade would ever be repealed. Things change and the Poilievre govt isn’t necessarily like the Harper govt, just like the JT govt wasn’t Chretien’s govt.

Is that around the map enough? Or is it possible that I am not a single issue voter and crams my political world view into one party’s platform?
 
They all suck, historically speaking, it seems....



Canada’s national party leaders have never been less popular, and 50 years of data demonstrates that​


1715290334416.png

For the first time since 1974, all three major federal party leaders score at least -12 in approval


May 9, 2024 – Many pundits and observers have speculated that politics has “never been this divisive”, with party leaders who seek to exploit differences rather than overcome them. Even Canadians have voiced concern that there is no room for compromise or that their voices aren’t heard. This frustration and division appears to have created the perfect conditions for political dissatisfaction, and this has culminated in historically unpopular leadership at the federal level.

An analysis of 50 years of public opinion data shows it’s not just a feeling: data indicates Canadians have never been as critical of all three of the major federal party leaders at the same time. There have certainly been low points, in 2011 Jack Layton, Michael Ignatieff and Stephen Harper were all in negative territory, but the intensity of dislike towards Layton was relatively slight. In the late 1980’s both John Turner and Brian Mulroney were heavily disapproved of, but Ed Broadbent soared in public opinion polls.

 
As for abortion, until recently the US would have laughed if someone said that Roe v. Wade would ever be repealed. Things change and the Poilievre govt isn’t necessarily like the Harper govt, just like the JT govt wasn’t Chretien’s govt.
PP stated again today that he is pro choice. But you’re going to listen to desperate LPC talking points instead?
 
O’Toole lost vs Poilievre because he was trying to govern from the centre. If he was the CPC leader I likely would have voted for them.

That being said, I have said that I lean more left now than before. My comments on the refugee hotels in another thread should be proof of that. I ack that I’m privileged enough to be making enough money where I don’t mind paying more in taxes to help out the less fortunate in our society.

As for abortion, until recently the US would have laughed if someone said that Roe v. Wade would ever be repealed. Things change and the Poilievre govt isn’t necessarily like the Harper govt, just like the JT govt wasn’t Chretien’s govt.

Is that around the map enough? Or is it possible that I am not a single issue voter and crams my political world view into one party’s platform?

If you suggest O'Toole lost to PP because he was trying to govern from the centre, I think you infer PP is right or far right. Explain what about PP makes him "right wing" - if that is your take.
 
Majority of Canadians who voted =/= "Canadians at large", especially when about 1/3 of those who could vote in those elections didn't. Also, that sorta blows the "a real majority of Canadians didn't even vote for him" argument out of the water, doesn't it? ;)

Meanwhile, Canadian Press overview of PMJT's podcast shows he's still rockin' the "they just don't understand what a good job we're doing" and "PP bad" narratives. We'll see if that alone works (my bet: nope ...)

I think Trudeau spent an inordinate amount of effort in all those podcasts reinforcing the ‘for the next year and a half…’ to let people know (or believe) that he will stay on to pitch achieving a 14-year legacy to the Canadian people…the week after Diwali…. eg.
"Canadians are going to have to choose over the next year-and-a-half what kind of country we are," Trudeau said.


What should happen (but it won’t because people won’t like the result) is just to have a randomized survey of statements and see where you fit in the political spectrum. Stuff like “do you support X” without any specific party affiliation.

I think people will be surprised at where they actually fall.

Those ‘where do you fall on the political spectrum’ surveys/questionaires seem to be relatively imaginative with how they quantify/corroborate a respondent’s true party affiliation. Without winding my tinfoil hat on too tightly, my gut feel (ie. Qualitative assessment) is that many of those surveys skew left. It would be interesting to have a related, follow-up survey to analyze the delta between survey result and respondent’s belief where they fall.

Was it the LPC threat of abortion or gun control that made you not vote CPC. Because those are bullshit tropes the LPC trot out on every election. But I suspect you know that, right?
Also what made you think Erin O'Toole was more of a social conservative than Stephen Harper, who as you remember had a majority government and did nothing to limit abortions in Canada. BTW, I suspect that you also know that the LPC has had had numerous opportunities to enshrine abortion rights but have done nothing as well.

To gratuitously pull a datapoint from the current CPC Party Policy ( https://cpcassets.conservative.ca/wp-content/uploads/2023/11/23175001/990863517f7a575.pdf )…

IMG_4180.jpeg

But some folks shouldn’t let a pesky party policy statement get in the way of gaslighting hyperbole…okay, okay, that’s a bit tough…how about get in the way of one’s own opinion?
 
In the 2022 Conservative leadership campaign, Poilievre said a government he led “would not introduce or pass legislation restricting abortion” during the first debate.

But the LPC playbook will say this is not clear enough.
A government not introducing such an item does not mean members will not introduce such an item for their members to support.

As the city GoC has proven, there are many ways to do things you said you wouldn't do.
 
The huge swing in polling numbers suggests to me people are waking up to a few things:

1. Trudeau is an actual disaster;
2. Realizing the CPC today are not far right but closer to centrists; and
3. Today's "Liberals" are not very liberal at all.
 
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