Turmoil in Libya (2011) and post-Gaddafi blowback

[daftandbarmy]

I believe that times have changed since then. I know that Panama was only 30 years ago, but even still, I feel that this is not something that will benefit the US if they were to go through with it.

My bet is on a UN sanctioned 'Arab nation led' intervention, supported by the EU and US. At least, I hope it happens that way or I'll lose a case of beer.  ;D

 

[willellis]

Thanks for the link Milnews. I can certainly understand where you are coming from too, but I am trying to look at how things will play out in today's world. Times have changed, and the world is smaller now. If there is a US force moved to Libya, would it not make more sense to send ground forces? If they refer back to the bombing method, this would become Iraq part III.

 

[willellis]

My bet is on a UN sanctioned 'Arab nation led' intervention, supported by the EU and US. At least, I hope it happens that way or I'll lose a case of beer.  ;D

Makes sense to me.

 

[Edward Campbell]

A lot depends on Egypt. Despite its own internal political problems it remains the dominant regional power. It is, relative to its neighbours: large, powerful, rich and sophisticated. Egypt traditionally aspires to a leadership role in North Africa and the Middle East - this may be a good time for it to exercise some leadership. Mubarak as cautious, he craved stability above all else, it seems to me. The new leaders may be more of the Nasser/Sadat type, we, in the West, probably hope more Sadat than Nasser, but we'll likely have to settle for whatever we get.

I'm not sure that any US engagement is either desirable or, given the current state of the US military (deployments, contingencies, etc), even likely.

This is an Arab/North African mess - they will, most likely, want to try to sort it out amongst themselves and we would be wise to let them try, with a UNSC mandate.

Don't forget: it is not just Libya: Bahrain, Egypt, Tunisia and Yemen are all in various stages and degrees of crises. Then there's Iran ...

 

[GR66]

My guess would be that Egypt may be the best equipped and positioned to intervene despite the current crisis there (with possible behind the scenes US logistics, intel and economic support) as well as being the most politically acceptable choice. 

Becoming the Arab "white knights" in Libya may also be a pretty smart political move for an Egyptian military that is likely pretty desperate to maintain their dominant political and economic position in their own country.  It's much harder to complain about the group that is seen as the saviours of your oppressed Arab brothers.

 

[57Chevy]

Looks to me that the world concern right now is on getting as many
of their citizens out of there in a quickened manner.
Some will encounter an array of delays
Evacuation of Canadians from Libya on hold: report
                                                  _________________________

Fidel takes a bit of a poke:

First lets not forget that Castro is not so much a foolish man and although he made a hardline statement regarding the
possible US/NATO invasion he is cautious:
Castro offered lukewarm support for Gadhafi, saying more time was needed to assess what was going on in Libya.
Cuban Diplomat points finger at US
IMO Castro is not the type to support the murder of ones own citizens.
However,
It is interesting to note some of the other exterior support for the Qadhafi regime
like muscle heads such as Chavez and Ortega
Both well known instigators to US departements and good friends for no real good reasons.

The president of Nicaragua, Daniel Ortega, has received almost $1 billion in aid from President Hugo Chavez of Venezuela -- sometimes in "suitcases full of cash" sent from Caracas -- a relationship that prompted a U.S. diplomat to dub Ortega a "Chavez Mini-Me," leaked U.S. diplomatic cables show.
Ortega, the cables say, also funds his party's political campaigns with money from drug traffickers and once bribed a prominent Nicaraguan boxer to stump for him in public in exchange for not facing sexual assault charges -- which Ortega himself has faced, as alleged by his stepdaughter.
Nicaragua's Daniel Ortega 'dubbed Chavez Mini-me' in US leaked cables

Nicaragua's leftist President Daniel Ortega says he has telephoned Libyan leader Moammar Qaddafi on Monday to express his solidarity.
---
Leftist leaders in the Americas have long embraced Qaddafi  and he has responded over the years by awarding the Muammar Qaddafi International Human Rights Prize to Castro and Ortega, as well as to Presidents Hugo Chávez of Venezuela and Evo Morales of Bolivia.
Nicaragua's Daniel Ortega and Cuba's Fidel Castro Stand-By Qaddafi

Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad has condemned the killing of Protesters in Libya and called on the Libyan government to respect the people's will.
Demands for change shaking the Middle East would end the oppression of "arrogant" powers and would reach other continents like Europe or America, unless Discrimination and Military occupation ended, he predicted. "Instead of killing people, listen to them,"
Ahmadinejad condemns civilian killings in Libya
Do you mean like Central and South America ?
so then,
Noting the Iranian viewpoint on the Libyan massacre perhaps these two characters will reconsider their statements:
Chávez pledged that Venezuela would "stay by Iran at any time and under any condition." Ahmedinejad called Chávez a kindred spirit. "I feel I have met a brother and trench mate after meeting Chávez." Chávez said he "admired the Iranian president for 'his wisdom and strength'," saying, "We are with you and with Iran forever. As long as we remain united we will be able to defeat (U.S.) imperialism, but if we are divided they will push us aside".
Wikipedia

Ortega met with Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. The two heads of state toured shanty towns in Managua. Ortega told the press that the "revolutions of Iran and Nicaragua are almost twin revolutions...since both revolutions are about justice, liberty, self-determination, and the struggle against imperialism.
Wikipedia

                        (Articles reproduced under the Fair Dealings provisions of the Copyright Act)

 

[brihard]

CBC's now reporting that we've sent a C17 for evac. Although apparently 'no military personnel are onboard'. I assume they mean other than flight crew.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/world/story/2011/02/24/libya-canadians.html

 

[Journeyman]

Don't forget: it is not just Libya: Bahrain, Egypt, Tunisia and Yemen are all in various stages and degrees of crises. Then there's Iran ...

I've been watching Bahrain for a couple of days now, and I think that crisis is different from Libya, Tunisia, and Yemen; it may be much closer to Egypt.

First off, I believe it's of more importance. As mentioned, it's the home of the US Navy's Fifth Fleet (roughly 25,000 military personnel serving afloat and 3,000 support personnel ashore in Bahrain. These naval forces typically represent some 60-80 percent of all American military forces in the Gulf area). This Fleet is seen as a much necessary regional counterbalance against Shi'ite Iran.

Secondly, the crisis is also of concern for two neighbours -- Saudi Arabia and Kuwait.

The Saudis fear that the concessions Bahrain is making with their Shia majority will embolden the Saudi Shia, who mostly inhabit the oil-rich eastern province near the Bahrain border. Adding to their concern is the impending succession of several of Saudi Arabia's top leaders; this is not a good time for instability.

Any Bahrainian concessions are also likely to have a knock-on effect in Kuwait, where 30 percent of their population are Shia...with many of the same grievances. Needless to say, Kuwait's stability is critical for US operations in Iraq, especially logistics.

Finally, I feel Bahrain is also different because of the nature of the protests. Sure, like the other protests, al Jazeera is showing the majority of signs and banners as being in English (obvious target audience). But in Bahrain the religious tone is very much understated. The protest's leadership seems to be more highly-educated, economically-driven youth; there appears to be a clear disconnect from the country's more traditionally conservative Shi'ite opposition groups.

So......Libya -- I'm not too concerned. The population has always been divided east/west, with the overwhelming majority living within 20 feet of the coast (hell, they didn't even have a road linking the entire country until the late-1980s); if there was no oil, no one would care.

Bahrain however, like Egypt, is important for regional stability.



Edit: typo

 

[daftandbarmy]

CBC's now reporting that we've sent a C17 for evac. Although apparently 'no military personnel are onboard'. I assume they mean other than flight crew.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/world/story/2011/02/24/libya-canadians.html

So they were pretty much 100% correct there, right?  ;D

Too bad we couldn't visit them with those C17s filled with troops. If you want a 'just cause', finding and hanging Goofy Ghadaffi Duck is a good one.

 

[The Bread Guy]

- edited to add extra info at bottom -

CBC's now reporting that we've sent a C17 for evac. Although apparently 'no military personnel are onboard'. I assume they mean other than flight crew.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/world/story/2011/02/24/libya-canadians.html

This from the CBC story caught my eye:

.... "We have arranged for the evacuation of Canadians on a number of flights and boats chartered by allies such as the United Kingdom, Spain, and the United States," Lawrence Cannon said in a statement issued from Rome on Thursday ....

as well as this from Reuters:

Canada will send a military cargo plane to evacuate its citizens from Libya, where conditions are becoming more dangerous, Foreign Minister Lawrence Cannon told reporters on Thursday.

The announcement came hours after plans to send a chartered civilian airliner on Thursday to the Libyan capital Tripoli fell through over insurance concerns. Cannon said nearly 200 Canadians had been, or were about to be, evacuated from Libya on planes and ships arranged by other nations.

Cannon, speaking to reporters in the Canadian embassy in Rome, said a C-17 military transport plane with 156 seats was on its way to Italy from Germany and would fly to Tripoli as soon as Libyan authorities have permission ....

The Minister's in Rome?  Does he need to be there?  Some 14K were evacuated from Lebanon in 2006, and (although I stand to be corrected) I don't remember a Minister being "forward deployed" like this.  As much as I appreciate a Minister of the Crown wanting to keep a grip on the situation (although it makes one wonder about his faith in the folks working for him), I really hope he doesn't take up a seat on the planes out of Libya.

Late add - To be fair, I've also spotted this as a rationale:

.... Cannon is in Italy to discuss the situation in Libya and the region with his Italian counterpart ....

 

[57Chevy]

Well put JM. The mentality of the people in Bahrain is completely different from those in Libya. The people are accustomed to the western influence because of the presence of the operational US 5th fleet. The latest protests show that there are deep rooted tensions based on the Sunni discrimination (Government) of the majority Shia population, that's one big reason the people want a new government.
Opposition resumes protest in Bahrain

For those interested, 
a further read on the difference between Sunni and Shia muslims can be found here  (What's the difference between Shia and Sunni Muslims ?)
                                              _________________________

Some new and interesting developments and possible heavy responses from world powers on the Libyan ordeal.
The White House said Barack Obama planned to call David Cameron and Nicolas Sarkozy, to discuss possible actions,
including a no-fly zone or sanctions.
---
Switzerland said it had frozen Gaddafi's assets
---
British special forces are in Malta, with some reports that they are in Tripoli.
Libya: International response gathers pace after Gaddafi counterattacks
                                            ________________________
Some additional dialogue from the UN
"At this critical juncture, it is imperative that the international community maintain unity and act together to ensure a prompt and peaceful transition,"
---
"I want to underscore what my special advisers said yesterday on the prevention of genocide and responsibility to protect," Ban said. "The reported nature and scale of effects of the attacks on civilians are egregious violations of international humanitarian and human rights law."

"I condemn them loudly ... and those who are responsible must be held accountable in courts of law," he added.
UN chief calls for 'prompt, peaceful' transition in Libya
                                          __________________________
And this rare and paramount support:

China and Russia, traditionally reluctant to interfere in the internal affairs of other countries, supported the strong press statement the council issued Tuesday which condemned and deplored "the repression against peaceful demonstrators," demanded an "immediate end to the violence," and called for steps "to address the legitimate demands of the population."
Whether China and Russia will go along with sanctions - which both countries also generally oppose - remains to be seen.
UN to meet on further options against Libya
                    (Articles reproduced under the Fair Dealings provisions of the Copyright Act)

 

[PuckChaser]

China and Russia supported the strong press statement the council issued Tuesday which condemned and deplored "the repression against peaceful demonstrators," demanded an "immediate end to the violence," and called for steps "to address the legitimate demands of the population."

Pot, this is kettle, you're black over.

 

[Kat Stevens]

The kettle is in a perfect position to remind the pot of it's colour.

 

[57Chevy]

(Modified)
---
---
British Foreign Secretary William Hague said that he did not rule out the possibility of sending Special Forces to Libya.

Hague convened a meeting of the cabinet emergency group COBRA, along with Defence Secretary Liam Fox. Prime Minister David Cameron is on a trade mission in the Middle East, centring on the sale of arms to Persian Gulf despots.

Culture Secretary Jeremy Hunt told LBS radio, “The most significant news is the SAS [Special Air Service] troops that are now ready to spring into action.”

When asked directly if he could envisage a British military intervention in Libya, he replied: “Absolutely … we wouldn’t have SAS troops on stand-by if we weren’t envisaging the possibility of having to use them.”

A statement from the Ministry of Defence (MoD) said it was “assisting FCO [Foreign and Commonwealth] officials in Tripoli and has pre-positioned a number of other assets and personnel in the area to assist as and when appropriate as part of the overall Foreign Office led response.” It added, “A number of further UK assets are also being readied to assist the FCO if required.”

Unnamed sources within the military have let it be known that the Special Boat Service (SBS) has deployed a forward team to a Mediterranean location. British Forces News said that the Special Forces are on alert and will be backed up by paratroopers from the Special Forces Support Group.

Frank Gardner, the BBC’s security editor, suggested that SAS personnel might already be on the ground in plain clothes.
---
Full article here
Calls mount for military intervention in Libya

                              (Reproduced under the Fair Dealings provisions of the Copyright Act)

 

[The Bread Guy]

Liberal and Conservative Senators lay out how Canada could help:

…. Support from the international community, and Canada especially, should be offered for building Libyan civil society and the national institutions neglected and denied during Gadhafi's four-decade, one-man rule.  Although the Security Council has expressed "grave concern" and called on Libya "to meet its responsibility to protect its population," its issuance of a press statement is insufficient to communicate the gravity of the situation that Libyans face -namely, the threat of mass atrocities. Time is literally of the essence …. But strong words must be paired with strong action.

Canada and the international community must stand by the people of Libya who, like so many others throughout the Arab world, seek the basic human rights that should be enjoyed by all who desire them. Whereas the protests elsewhere have led to relatively peaceful transitions or to dialogues for reform, Libya's rulers have chosen repression and slaughter.  Our response may very well determine whether the next authoritarian government threatened follows Gadhafi's lead. This is not about picking winners; it's about being on the right side of history by saving human lives. 

We have seen the cost of inaction, delay and obfuscation on innocent populations elsewhere. The Responsibility to Protect is about the world engaging when a civilian population is under attack -either from its own government or because its government lacks the means or will to protect it. Libya is one of the clearest examples yet of just such a circumstance.

Canada has an opportunity to help build a coalition at the UN for rapid engagement. This needs to be a matter of hours and days, not weeks and months.

 

[Oldgateboatdriver]

Unfortunately, IMHO these senators may discover that for Canada to be able to play a role in building a coalition at the UN level, our view on R2P would have to be backed up by a C2P (Capacity to Protect), otherwise nobody takes you seriously.

A good fit for Canada in something like Libya would have been to provide logistics, communication and other technical support to a UN coalition, but right now, the Army and Air Force are committed in Afghanistan and otherwise in rubber band mode at home and could not take on another mission "in a matter of hours and days, not weeks and months". While Libya would be the perfect place for such support "from the sea", our masters have not seen fit to equip the Navy or its Fleet Auxiliary Service with the ships that could do that, and the Navy is also in rubber band mode anyway.

So, nice thought on the part of those senators. It probably put their minds at ease that "they tried everything and offered all support", but they likely know that we can't do it anyway.

 

[daftandbarmy]

Unfortunately, IMHO these senators may discover that for Canada to be able to play a role in building a coalition at the UN level, our view on R2P would have to be backed up by a C2P (Capacity to Protect), otherwise nobody takes you seriously.

A good fit for Canada in something like Libya would have been to provide logistics, communication and other technical support to a UN coalition, but right now, the Army and Air Force are committed in Afghanistan and otherwise in rubber band mode at home and could not take on another mission "in a matter of hours and days, not weeks and months". While Libya would be the perfect place for such support "from the sea", our masters have not seen fit to equip the Navy or its Fleet Auxiliary Service with the ships that could do that, and the Navy is also in rubber band mode anyway.

So, nice thought on the part of those senators. It probably put their minds at ease that "they tried everything and offered all support", but they likely know that we can't do it anyway.

Canada must have the highest proportion of off road clubs per capita in the world. That's how these guys got started: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Long_Range_Desert_Group

IMHO, if we devloped a div/corps/army level recce unit that specialized in desert (and other LR) patrolling, we could get something useful done for pretty cheap.

 

[Journeyman]

IMHO, if we developed a div/corps/army level recce unit that specialized in desert (and other LR) patrolling, we could get something useful done for pretty cheap.

But remember the timeline -- 1940-43. Desperate governments can be pretty amenable to innovation.

The only desperation these days involves the weekly 'Miss Congeniality' EKOS polls.

 

[The Bread Guy]

- edited to add PMO's head's up re:  PM statement on Libya tonight ~1900, U.S. info -
PM's going to have more to say tonight:

PM Harper will deliver a statement in Ottawa concerning Libya upon his return from Val d'Or, Qc this evening at approximately 1900.

Meanwhile, this from the U.S. ....

The US is to impose unilateral and multilateral sanctions on Libya, the White House has announced.

US spy agencies are also monitoring Libya for evidence of atrocities, Jay Carney, the White House spokesperson, announced on Friday.

He declined to give details of what the sanctions might entail in a press conference in Washington.

The United States has withdrawn embassy personnel from the Libyan capital and suspended all embassy operations for security reasons, Carney said.

The embassy has temporarily ceased all operations, he said.

Diplomatic personnel had been ordered to leave the country earlier this week and, on Wednesday, Crowley said at least 35 American diplomats and their family members would be ferried out ....

.... and from the non-interventionist camp, we have this, from stopwar.org.uk - more "it's only the oil we're after, ya know" messaging:

There must be no US or British intervention in Libya: the future of Libya, Egypt, Tunisia, Bahrain, Yemen must be determined by the people of those countries alone.

The uprisings sweeping the Middle East deserve the support of all progressive people. They are directed against autocracies which have denied their people basic rights and the possibility of a decent life.

These autocracies have also, for the most part, depended on the self-interested support of the big powers, the USA and Britain first of all. Western governments have prioritised cheap oil, arms sales and support for Israel’s oppression of the Palestinians above the rights of the Arab peoples.

The response of the British government to the events of the last month exemplifies this hypocrisy. David Cameron has prioritised arms sales to the region. And the clamour to intervene in Libya has more to do with control of that country’s oil resources than with support for Libya’s people.

The Conservative-Liberal Coalition has followed Tony Blair’s lead in seeing the Middle East entirely through the prism of the interests of BP and British Aerospace. Any British intervention in the region would be directed to furthering those interests, not the freedom or democracy which can only present a challenge to western domination of the region.

Stop the War Coalition is clear that there must be no US or British intervention in Libya or anywhere else in the Middle East under any pretext whatsoever. Such interference over the last century is the root of the region’s troubles, and its continuation will solve none of the difficulties there.

The future of Libya, Egypt, Tunisia, Bahrain, Yemen and all the other states facing popular uprisings must be determined by the people of those countries alone. Solidarity with those fighting for their democratic and national freedom is our obligation.

We can best discharge it by demanding that the government at long last takes its hands off the Middle East and its people, leaving them to settle accounts with their own rulers.

 

[The Bread Guy]

In no particular order....

"The United Nations Human Rights Council today strongly condemned the recent violence in Libya and ordered an international inquiry into alleged abuses, while also recommending that the country’s membership in the UN’s top human rights body be suspended.  In a resolution adopted unanimously at the end of a special session held in Geneva, the 47-member Council called on the Libyan Government to meet its responsibility to protect its population, immediately end all human rights violations, stop any attacks against civilians, and respect the popular will, aspirations and demands of its people ...."

"China is taking the unprecedented step of dispatching a navy ship to protect its citizens being evacuated from conflict-ridden Libya — underscoring the navy's growing capabilities and Beijing's need to protect its citizens abroad.  The missile frigate Xuzhou was ordered to break off from anti-piracy patrols in the Gulf of Aden and is sailing toward Libya, the Defence Ministry said in a notice reported by state media Friday. It's orders are to protect ships carrying Chinese expatriates to safety, the notice issued Thursday said. No details were given.  The ship's mission, approved by the Central Military Commission headed by President Hu Jintao, marks the first time China's entaglement-wary leaders have ever sent a navy ship to take part in the evacuation of civilians ...."  (More on the Type 054A (Jiangkai-II Class) Missile Frigate here)


"Libyan leader Muammar Gaddafi promised a gathering of his supporters on Friday to defeat the protesters who seek to topple his embattled regime, reports reaching here said.  Addressing the rally at the Green Square in Tripoli, capital of Libya, Gaddafi said: "The Libyan people love Muammar Gaddafi and see him as icon of dignity," Libyan TV reported this evening.  "If the people do not love me, I do not deserve to live for a single day," he stressed.  Meanwhile, he threatened to open the arms caches for tribes to fight the protesters, saying: "We'll fight then and rout them. We'll defeat any external hostile attempts as we did with all previous ones." ...."

"The government of Muammar Gaddafi will never resort to destroying Libya's oil wealth in its fight to put down an insurrection, the Libyan leader's son Saif al-Islam told Turkish news channel CNN-Turk on Friday.  "We will never demolish the sources of oil. They belong to the people," Saif said in an interview translated from English into Turkish on the CNN-Turk website.  He said the Gaddafi family had no intention of fleeing Libya, and the government was in control of the west, south and centre of the country.  "We have plans A, B and C. Plan A is to live and die in Libya. Plan B is to live and die in Libya. Plan C is to live and die in Libya," Saif said ...."

"The government of Col. Moammar Gadhafi hasn't destroyed significant stockpiles of mustard gas and other chemical-weapons agents, raising fears in Washington about what could happen to them—and whether they may be used—as Libya slides further into chaos.  Tripoli also maintains control of aging Scud B missiles, U.S. officials said, as well as 1,000 metric tons of uranium yellowcake and vast amounts of conventional weapons that Col. Gadhafi has channeled in the past to militants operating in countries like Sudan and Chad ...."  (A bit of an overview of Libya's chemical history here)

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