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Turmoil in Libya (2011) and post-Gaddafi blowback

sean m, I rather admire your passion to "help" people, but my sense of humankind's history is that if people do not, perhaps cannot or maybe just will not help themselves then all the "help" in the world, from others, is wasted.

It is possible, maybe even probable, that the people of Libya (and Tunisia and Egypt, and ... and ... and ...) are, finally, taking a first step towards helping themselves; if so then I say Bravo!; if not, well, better luck next time.

Maybe, just maybe, if enough countries in North Africa and the Middle East and West Asia all decide to "help themselves" at about the same time - say in the same decade - then we might, just might see some change and some of that change might be in a positive direction ("positive direction" being defined as good for the liberal, secular West and the conservative, secular East). But it is just as likely that change in a "positive" direction will come only after the people endure a generation or two of radical, fundamentalist, Islamist/jihadist government with the consequential tyranny and bloodshed from external and internal wars.

I think the big, Big, BIG issue is oil supply - for America, Asia and Europe.

world-oil_31948a.jpg


Canada, Nigeria, Russia and Venezuela are key players. It might be easier to "help" the Nigerians, Russians and Venezuelans "help themselves" than to worry about liberty and democracy North Africa and the Middle East. For me ... well I'll be happy if the top-ten big oil producers are stable and keep key pipelines and sea-lanes open.

 
I think you will find that many of the countries in turmoil will think they can dabble with radical, fundamentalist, Islamist/jihadist government, and change if needed....

Iranians thought so, to their dismay. Maybe these populations have to learn that radical, fundamentalist, Islamist/jihadist governments do not free them.

The "West" trying to direct them towards something else is not likely to work very successfully. The "West" has an agenda, and so do "radical, fundamentalist, Islamist/jihadist governments"....
 
More on "no-fly":

Govt working on Libyan no-fly zone: PM
http://www.google.com/hostednews/afp/article/ALeqM5h6bleBDGxtuaeN9aYdhiaZU--CfQ?docId=CNG.0c072a7a730504b85eecf4e0f0fdd530.441

LONDON — The government is working with its allies to draw up a plan for a military no-fly zone over Libya, Prime Minister David Cameron said Monday.

Cameron told parliament the talks were motivated by the threat of "further appalling steps" being taken by Moamer Kadhafi to crack down on the most serious challenge to his rule in four decades.

"We must not tolerate this regime using military force against its own people," Cameron said.

"In that context I have asked the ministry of defence and the Chief of the Defence Staff to work with our allies on plans for a military no-fly zone."..

Italy says would consider Libya no-fly zone request
http://af.reuters.com/article/libyaNews/idAFLDE71R25N20110228

* Italy has closest NATO airfields to Tripoli

* Frattini says non-aggression pact suspended

* Italy gradually raising its voice against Gaddafi

By Silvia Aloisi

ROME, Feb 28 (Reuters) - Italy would look at allowing bases in the Mediterranean to be used by allies if there were a United Nations-backed deal to enforce a no-fly zone [emphasis added] over Libya, Foreign Minister Franco Frattini said on Monday.

"If and when the Security Council members took the decision, then we would consider it," Frattini told Reuters in an interview, but added that there was so far no agreement over deploying international military force.

"Italian bases are the only ones that could be used as they are the closest to Libya. But we are not at that point yet," Frattini told Reuters by phone from Geneva where he is attending a meeting of the U.N. Human Rights Council.

"We think a no-fly zone is a useful measure but there is no consensus among members of the Security Council over its enforcement, which would require the use of war planes," he said. He said that several countries felt that for now, such a measure was premature...

...NATO Secretary-General Anders Fogh Rasmussen distanced himself from talk of an imminent implementation of a no-fly zone, saying the focus should be on measures already adopted by the Security Council to isolate Gaddafi's government...

Note the current UNSC situation:
http://forums.milnet.ca/forums/threads/99510/post-1021950.html#msg1021950

...
The Council is...

Quote

    '...
    “Acting under Chapter VII of the Charter of the United Nations, and taking measures under its Article 41...'


Article 41:
http://www.un.org/en/documents/charter/chapter7.shtml

Quote

    "The Security Council may decide what measures not involving the use of armed force [emphasis added] are to be employed to give effect to its decisions, and it may call upon the Members of the United Nations to apply such measures. These may include complete or partial interruption of economic relations and of rail, sea, air, postal, telegraphic, radio, and other means of communication, and the severance of diplomatic relations."

So a no-fly zone or other military action would require a further resolution.  China? Russia?  Even India?

Meanwhile:

U.S. to position aircraft carrier off Libya as counter to Gadhafi
http://www.mcclatchydc.com/2011/02/28/109564/us-to-position-aircraft-carrier.html

BENGHAZI, Libya — The United States is moving naval and air forces, including an aircraft carrier, into the Mediterranean Sea near Libya, U.S. officials said Monday, as the Obama administration and its allies consider how to respond to Libyan leader Moammar Gadhafi's brutal efforts to suppress a widespread rebellion among civilians and army troops...

U.S. officials said no decision had been made about how the U.S. forces would be used, but that one option under consideration is the imposition of a no-fly zone designed to prevent Gadhafi from using aircraft as he fought the rebels.

“We have planners working and various contingency plans and I think it's safe to say as part of that we're repositioning forces to be able to provide for that flexibility once decisions are made,” Marine Col. David Lapan, a Pentagon spokesman, told reporters.

Another official, who requested anonymity to discuss the issue, said the pre-positioning of military assets “doesn’t mean to suggest that there will be military intervention.”

At the same time, he said, consideration of imposing a no-fly zone “has picked up a little speed [emphasis added].”

Gadhafi opponents in Libya's second-largest city, Benghazi, have said they oppose foreign military intervention, a message they reiterated in comments on Twitter after the Pentagon moves became public...

So the US and UK are thinking in a NATO context and don't mention the UNSC.  Italy at this point says UNSC authourization needed (and provides best basing options for non-carrier aircraft).

Questions:  Would NATO approve a no-fly without the UNSC (cf. the NATO air attack on Serbia)?  Would the US, UK and others act even without NATO agreement, much less a UNSC one?  Under what conditions would our gov't support a no-fly--and would it contribute CF-18s?  When will our gov't indicate its position on these issues?  Hah!

Mark
Ottawa
 
Mr. Campbell,

I am surprised that neither Sudan (more South Sudan which will be its own nation-state soon) nor Angola are on that map you posted regarding oil sources.

Angola was described by Dambisa Moyo in her book Dead Aid as having surpassed Saudi Arabia as "China's single biggest supplier in oil." {{p. 104, Moyo}} To quote a figure, "In 2006, 64 percent of Sudan's crude oil exports went to China." {{105, Moyo}}

In the book, China in Africa, Chris Alden makes similar comments about the importance Sudan, Nigeria and Angola in helping to supply China's energy needs. He states that since 1996, "over 15 billion had been invested by China (in Sudan), primarily in the oil industry and related infrastructure projects." {{61, Alden}}

Sorry for the little tangent. Just was surprised by the lack of Sudan or Angola in that map.

 
 
A bit more on the American forces angle, shared with the usual caveats....
The United States military “is in the planning and preparing mode” on Libya, and will be able to provide the full range of options for national leaders, Pentagon spokesman Marine Corps Col. Dave Lapan said here today.

The U.S. military is moving naval and air forces to the region, he said.

President Barack Obama asked the military to prepare these options as the situation in Libya gets worse. News reports indicate while Libyan ruler Moammar Gadhafi is attacking rebels in and around the capital of Tripoli, anti-regime forces hold the east.

In a Feb. 26 call to German Chancellor Angela Merkel, Obama said: “When a leader’s only means of staying in power is to use mass violence against his own people, he has lost the legitimacy to rule and needs to do what is right for his country by leaving now,” according to the White House.

The Defense Department has not been directly tasked for any mission, Lapan said.

“We have planners working various contingency plans,” he said. “It’s safe to say as a part of that, we’re re-positioning forces to provide for that flexibility. We are re-positioning forces in the region to provide options and flexibility.”

Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton also urged Gadhafi to stop killing his own people and leave. She also said the United States government has been reaching out to Libyan rebels.

“We’ve been reaching out to many different Libyans who are attempting to organize in the east and as the revolution moves westward, there as well,” Clinton said at Andrews Air Force Base yesterday. “I think it’s way too soon to tell how this is going to play out, but we’re going to be ready and prepared to offer any kind of assistance that anyone wishes to have from the United States.”

Lapan ruled nothing out. “Again, it goes back to having a full range of options available,” he said. “So those forces could be used in any number of ways. Re-positioning them provides that flexibility so they can be used if needed.”
 
I'm concerned though about Tripoli, and Gaddafi's cult-like, meglomaniac character-- I'm worried about others trapped in that city and the mounting pressures and how Gaddafi will respond to that, and e.g. if food supplies run low, hopefully others abandon and allow others to get out (who are guarding the periphery. . .).  I think it's appropriate that there are others on standby (last resort).  I worry about things like mustard gas, and I hope he doesn't have access to that-- what if he is pushed to suicide -- in his nuttiness, would he take others down, dramatically, i.e., the one's loyal to him. . . like the case of other cult-figures even. . .?  Not sure how it's going to play out? 

It looks like e.g. in Braida, the Libyan people are helping themselves, organizing, interesting adherence to Geneva conventions re: mercenary captives.  It looks like there is an educated class of people involved, likewise in Benghazi. . . though it's between Council and Provisional Government not yet set up, but regional stability is working. . .civil stability.  Even the Elders having control, e.g. even radical youth extremists, are honouring the Elders.  Benghazi, seems to have civil control, Council, but Provisional government is trying to be worked out. . .?

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704520504576162710080404774.html

In a Libyan Town, Elders Take Charge
At a Town Hall Meeting in Baida, Prominent Citizens Mark a Return to Freedom and a Shift Away From Youth Movement

By CHARLES LEVINSON
BAIDA, Libya—A day after the last forces loyal to besieged Libyan leader Moammar Gadhafi in the country's east were defeated, this coastal town's elders met to begin rebuilding.

Masouda al-Alamy, a distinguished professor of animal science at the city's Omar Mukhtar University, called the meeting to order on Wednesday, her voice cracking with emotion. "Today, we meet and can speak freely for the first time," she said. "For the first time we feel we are free."

At Baida's airport on Wednesday, civilians examine debris that was left after some of the fiercest fighting during the uprising in eastern Libya.
Around 200 locals, including tribal sheikhs, university professors and prominent businessmen, met in a town meeting hall with green plush seats. It was built in the time of the monarchy to house the Libyan parliament, but more recently it was the meeting place for the town's Revolutionary Peoples' Committee, the closest thing Libyans have had to representative government under Mr. Gadhafi.

"We were a hopeless people, an immoral country forgotten to the world, and in three days all that has changed," said Abdullah Mortady, an architect. "For 42 years we didn't speak. For 42 years this whole country was only for one man and his sons."

Top items on the agenda at the meeting included forming committees to take charge of security, food and fuel distribution, reopening schools, and collecting weapons pillaged during the protests. Another key challenge facing these elders: how to rein in the revolutionary zeal of the region's youth, charged with emotion after days of violent battle culminating in a historic victory.

Mr. Mortady came home on the first night of the uprising to find his 16- and 19-year-old sons gone. His worried wife told him they were in the streets protesting. When they returned home well after midnight, they were both armed with guns from pillaged police stations.

The Battle for Baida
Anti-Gadhafi protesters demonstrated outside City Hall Wednesday in Baida.
"I was very scared, but now I'm quite proud," Mr. Mortady said.
Like youth all over eastern Libya, Mr. Mortady's sons had transformed themselves from peaceful protesters into armed pro-democracy rebels in a period of about 48 hours. That is a worrying specter for many of the town's elders, who fear a breakdown of law and order now that police and army forces have been replaced with bands of young revolutionaries.

The elders stepped in quickly to take responsibility for the hundreds of pro-Gadhafi soldiers captured by the young pro-democracy fighters in recent days. Masoud Abdullah, a professor of management science at the local university, and his older cousin, a prominent tribal leader in the area, were among those who called an urgent meeting to decide what they were going to do after the first batch of prisoners were taken Saturday morning.

"The young people wanted to kill them, and we said no way," Mr. Abdullah said.
Outside that meeting, angry youth had heckled their elders. "They called us hypocrites and traitors," Mr. Abdullah said. "One kid yelled at me, 'They killed my two brothers. How can you forgive them?' "

On Wednesday morning, the pro-democracy fighters' anger was still evident. At Baida's airport, the site of some of the fiercest fighting of the uprising in eastern Libya, 30-year-old ambulance driver Tareq Tajori pointed to dried bloodstains on the asphalt outside the terminal. "That was my friend," he said. "They shot him. Now they need to be shot."
But when the elders ordered restraint, the youth obeyed, thanks to a strong tribal order that still holds sway here, and which many say will help ensure order as Mr. Gadhafi's government melts away. "When the tribes say stop, the youth stop," Mr. Abdullah said.

Among those who have assumed a prominent role in Baida is Mr. Gadhafi's former Minister of Justice Mustafa Abdel-Jalil, who resigned when firing on protesters began.
But other figures associated with Mr. Gadhafi's government are less welcome. When a group of town leaders retreated to a private annex on Wednesday, a shouting match erupted. They grabbed one man by the collar and ejected him from the room.
"He worked for the secret police," said Hassan Abdel Razaq, among those in the meeting. "He used to send reports for the intelligence service on all the townspeople. There will be no place for people like him in the new country we are building."

Among those who have assumed a prominent role in Baida is Mr. Gadhafi's former Minister of Justice Mustafa Abdel-Jalil, who resigned when firing on protesters began.
But other figures associated with Mr. Gadhafi's government are less welcome. When a group of town leaders retreated to a private annex on Wednesday, a shouting match erupted. They grabbed one man by the collar and ejected him from the room.
"He worked for the secret police," said Hassan Abdel Razaq, among those in the meeting. "He used to send reports for the intelligence service on all the townspeople. There will be no place for people like him in the new country we are building."

The prisoners taken during the uprising, which in Baida number around 300, are being held in secret locations around the town to keep them out of the hands of youths seeking revenge. On Wednesday, a group of Western journalists was taken to one of those locations, an elementary school on the town's outskirts.

The three-car convoy, trying to shake a car driven by unknown youngsters, wound in and out of side roads, made U-turns, split up and rejoined. "We are very worried," said Ahmed Jabreel, a Libyan diplomat until recently posted to the United Nations in New York, who is now on the side of the pro-democracy rebels in Baida. "People are very angry here and they want revenge, but this is not our way."

At the school, a few young men with heavy machine guns and ammunition slung around their necks stood sentry.

About 100 prisoners, some bandaged, lay sprawled shoulder to shoulder on mattresses in the school's classrooms. Most of the prisoners spoke Arabic and said they were from Libya, while four said they were from Chad.

The elders said they were contacting detainees' families and tribal leaders to come pick them up. "We are not killers," said Mr. Abdel-Jalil, the former justice minister. "Gadhafi made us killers."
Write to Charles Levinson at charles.levinson@wsj.com 
 
 
I don't think this has been posted yet.  Looks like the CF is sending a 13-member recce and medic team to Malta now in addition to the planes on the ground.

http://www.ctv.ca/CTVNews/TopStories/20110228/libya-evacuations-canadians-110228/


Canadian military team deployed near Libya

CTV.ca News Staff

Date: Mon. Feb. 28 2011 5:43 PM ET

The Canadian military has sent a reconnaissance team and medics to Malta, as Western countries weigh their options for a possible intervention in Libya, including a ‘no-fly zone' to protect civilians.

The 13-member team landed on Monday along with two new C-130J cargo planes and two C-17 transports. The planes will be used to help get foreign nationals out of the increasingly chaotic North African country.

"A team of Canadian Forces is now on the ground in Malta. We continue to provide assistance to those who need it and we encourage Canadians who need further assistance to contact the Department of Foreign Affairs," Defence Minister Peter MacKay confirmed during question period Monday.

The Canadian Press is reporting that special forces teams are also preparing to deploy.

The United Kingdom have used commandos to escort their transports into Libya and protected them while on the ground.

One British plane was fired on during an evacuation and took minor damage.

Earlier Monday, the federal government issued tough sanctions against Libya on Monday and renewed calls for Col. Moammar Gadhafi to resign, with Foreign Affairs Minister Lawrence Cannon saying it was "the only acceptable course of action."

Cannon joined the chorus of world leaders urging Gadhafi to heed the call of protesters and step down.

"A tide of change is sweeping the Middle East and North Africa. Leaders who try to defy or repress the tide, like Gadhafi or the leadership in Iran, will eventually be overwhelmed," Cannon told the United Nations in Geneva, Monday afternoon.

Earlier in the day, Government House Leader John Baird released more details about sanctions Canada is imposing on Libya and the Gadhafi regime.

He said Ottawa is freezing any Canadian assets belonging to Gadhafi and his regime and placing a ban on financial dealings with Libya, saying the actions will help end "the appalling violence."

Baird said the Harper government hopes the sanctions will help force Gadhafi from power quickly.

Baird refused to go into details about how much money in Canada was linked to the Gadhafi regime, or how long it had been here, citing "operational" concerns.

But he said "there were specific instances brought to our attention."

Speaking to CTV's Power Play, Baird said the assets of Gadhafi, the Libyan government, the Libyan central back and those of 15 "close associates" have been frozen by the Canadian government.

"We don't want that money to be stolen from the Libyan people, we don't want it to be used to spread the appalling violence we've seen in the capital," he said Monday.

The Harper government is also banning any Canadian company operating in Libya from making any transactions with the Libyan government, its agencies or the central bank.

However, companies will not be banned from operating in Libya, Baird said.

"We are hoping the hard line taken by the international community and the even harder line taken by our government against the current Libyan regime will bring about change quickly and the negative impact of these sanctions will be limited and will be very short term," Baird said.

He added that the situation in Libya is "deteriorating rapidly" and since Canadian companies are now evacuating their workers, it's unlikely any organizations would be looking at expanding any time soon, anyway.

However, Baird said he hoped the sanctions would be "short-term" and regime change will occur "very quickly."

The UN Security Council voted unanimously over the weekend to impose an arms embargo and urged member states to freeze the assets of Gadhafi, four of his sons and a daughter.

Prime Minister Stephen Harper then said Canada would add to those restrictions by banning financial transactions with the Libyan government and its agencies.

Canadians continued to flee Libya Monday by any and all means of transportation possible, amid the ongoing political turmoil. A total of 250 Canadians have now been evacuated from the country, Baird said.

Harper's communications director Dimitri Soudas sent out a message on Twitter Monday morning that 33 Canadians were aboard British ship HMS Cumberland that was approaching Malta, in the Mediterranean Sea.

The ship, which was "due to arrive in Malta shortly," was carrying a number of expatriates from other countries as well.

Soudas also wrote on his Twitter feed that a Canadian Forces C17 cargo plane had carried a load of evacuees, including one Canadian, to Malta.

CTV's Ottawa Bureau Chief Robert Fife reported that the C17 flew into Libya's isolated southwest region Monday morning.

"The C17 military cargo plane has just landed in Malta carrying Filipino, Vietnamese, Thais, one German and one Canadian," Fife said, adding that Canada has two C130 Hercules aircraft and two C-17s based in Malta.

 
Speculation only:  could the CF team be a prelude to fulfilling this promise?
On top of sanctions and ongoing evacuations, Canada is also prepared to provide humanitarian assistance to the people of Libya, Foreign Affairs Minister Lawrence Cannon has told the UN Human Rights Council.

At a meeting Monday in Geneva, Cannon told council members that Canada was "concerned with the looming humanitarian disaster in Libya" and was ready to help but offered few details about what that assistance might look like ....

Meanwhile, this from AFP on a mentioned (possible) no-fly zone:
A military no-fly zone over Libya is unlikely to get off the ground as several allies are balking at the plan, Foreign Affairs Minister Lawrence Cannon said Monday.

"In terms of the no-fly zone, there doesn't seem to be consensus among our allies," Cannon told a teleconference from Geneva, declining to offer Canada's position.

"There are too many elements still not known, so I would not want to offer an opinion at this time," he said. "We still don't have enough information."

Earlier, British Prime Minister David Cameron said Britain was working with its allies to draw up a plan for a military no-fly zone over Libya.

Cameron told parliament the talks were motivated by the threat of "further appalling steps" being taken by Moamer Kadhafi to crack down on the most serious challenge to his rule in four decades ....
 
I was just watching the BBC news and there was an interview with Ghafaffi. In the interview, he stated that " there are no demonstrations " and that " all my people love me. "  This man has some serious issues with denial.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-12603259
 
S.M.A. said:
Mr. Campbell,

I am surprised that neither Sudan (more South Sudan which will be its own nation-state soon) nor Angola are on that map you posted regarding oil sources.

Angola was described by Dambisa Moyo in her book Dead Aid as having surpassed Saudi Arabia as "China's single biggest supplier in oil." {{p. 104, Moyo}} To quote a figure, "In 2006, 64 percent of Sudan's crude oil exports went to China." {{105, Moyo}}

In the book, China in Africa, Chris Alden makes similar comments about the importance Sudan, Nigeria and Angola in helping to supply China's energy needs. He states that since 1996, "over 15 billion had been invested by China (in Sudan), primarily in the oil industry and related infrastructure projects." {{61, Alden}}

Sorry for the little tangent. Just was surprised by the lack of Sudan or Angola in that map.


I think, in fairness, that my source (Oil & Gas Journal) (I should have cited it) highlighted only the world's top 20 producers (7 billion barrels appears to be the smallest of the proven reserves it shows). I'm not certain of the age of that data and we (should) know that there is a mass of guesstimated data about reserves out there. It may be that Sudan and Angola are significant producers, right now, but we may not have well documented data about their reserves.

It is hard for China to "horn in" on e.g. Saudi Arabia where domestic and (generally) Western interests are well established everywhere. We know, also, that China is taking a big slice of "new" oil in Central Asia and that it has its eyes of Russian oil, too.

 
A promising thing to note is the most radical of Islamic organizations (the Al-Qaida) hasn't been involved in these protests (either in Libya or elsewhere), and even the Muslim Brotherhood's role in Egypt seems to be muted (although we could be unpleasantly surprised).

Lybia undergoing a revolution may actually be in our national interest, since the trouble making ability of Gaddafi will be radically reduced. Given our very limited resources, I say "watch and shoot" as far as a response is concerned.
 
Thucydides said:
A promising thing to note is the most radical of Islamic organizations (the Al-Qaida) hasn't been involved in these protests (either in Libya or elsewhere), and even the Muslim Brotherhood's role in Egypt seems to be muted (although we could be unpleasantly surprised).
Indeed low key, but not zero.  The International Crisis Group think tank (partially funded by CIDA) has a report out on the events in Egypt (overview here, full report - 41 pg 2 MB PDF - here) that reads more like a magazine account than a think tank study.  There's examples of how the MB has been helping out in the streets while not hogging the limelight.

Thucydides said:
Given our very limited resources, I say "watch and shoot" as far as a response is concerned.
Here here.
 
milnews.ca said:
Indeed low key, but not zero.  The International Crisis Group think tank (partially funded by CIDA) has a report out on the events in Egypt (overview here, full report - 41 pg 2 MB PDF - here) that reads more like a magazine account than a think tank study.  There's examples of how the MB has been helping out in the streets while not hogging the limelight.
Here here.
[/quote

Very True Milnews.ca, on the frontline documentary about the Muslim Brotherhood they were shown providing security, medical treatment, they basically defended the protesters from the pro Mubarak crowds.  Groups like the muslim brotherhood and Hezbollah really seem to know how to win support of the people. This works as a disadvantage to us since they also gain increased power and no one truly knows their end goals not even some of their own members.

At least we can be more thankful that any radical Muslim groups in Libya have not performed as well as the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt.  Yet the Libyan have greater worries when gaddafi and his sons promise to go down fighting.

Here is a video showing Saif  Gaddafi  promoting killing of civilians by mercenaries.

http://www.liveleak.com/view?i=5ad_1298859291
 
willellis said:
I was just watching the BBC news and there was an interview with Ghafaffi. In the interview, he stated that " there are no demonstrations " and that " all my people love me. "  This man has some serious issues with denial.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-12603259

Well if they don't love him they aren't his people are they now.  I wonder if he is truly mad or if he is just playing for time, maintaining morale amongst "his people" and working on his exit strategy.
 
milnews.ca said:
Speculation only:  could the CF team be a prelude to fulfilling this promise?
Meanwhile, this from AFP on a mentioned (possible) no-fly zone:

I just saw a news clip showing the rebels manning about 6 x twin 14.5mm AA units, with about a zillion rounds of ammo. My thoughts, in this order, were:

1) these things will do more to ensure a no fly zone than the UN ever will, and
2) why don't we have anything like that to deploy against air attack?
 
daftandbarmy said:
I just saw a news clip showing the rebels manning about 6 x twin 14.5mm AA units, with about a zillion rounds of ammo. My thoughts, in this order, were:

1) these things will do more to ensure a no fly zone than the UN ever will, and
2) why don't we have anything like that to deploy against air attack?

Where were they mounted out of curiosity?

My thoughts on yours; CF-18s are our defense against air target aren't they? I'm not well versed in our domestic defenses, so please advise if I am mistaken.
 
willellis said:
Where were they mounted out of curiosity?

My thoughts on yours; CF-18s are our defense against air target aren't they? I'm not well versed in our domestic defenses, so please advise if I am mistaken.

Well, normally we layer our defence...  We don't bank on 1 platform for everything.
 
This seems rather wretched excess given the likely current state of Libyan air defences, esp. in the east of the country (usual copyright disclaimer):

A no-fly zone over Libya would be a complex operation
To establish a no-fly zone, the U.S. and its allies would need to bomb Libya's air defense system and devote hundreds of aircraft to patrol the country, military officers say.

http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/world/middleeast/la-fg-libya-no-fly-20110301,0,1283071.story

Reporting from Washington —
Although White House and European leaders have repeatedly threatened to establish a no-fly zone over Libya, such a complex operation could require hundreds of aircraft and a bombing campaign to neutralize the country's air defense system, current and retired U.S. military officers say.

Libya's military is considered no match for those of the U.S. and its allies, but it would take a large-scale Western effort to establish round-the-clock patrols over Libyan airspace to deter further attacks on rebels, the U.S. officers said.

"This is all doable," retired Air Force Lt. Gen. Michael M. Dunn, former vice director for strategic plans and policy for the Pentagon's Joint Staff, said of creating a no-fly zone.

But "the simple fact of the matter is that it's not simple," he said.

There is little evidence that consideration of a no-fly zone has moved beyond the conceptual stage in Washington or in European capitals, where officials seem to be hoping, at least for now, that the threat alone will deter the Libyan air force from attacking protesters...

If a no-fly zone is implemented, one of the biggest worries for U.S. planners will be Libya's surface-to-air missile batteries along its coastline, especially its so-called SA-6 missiles, which, though designed years ago by the Soviet Union, remain able to shoot down U.S. and European fighters, several analysts said.

Libya is believed to have about 50 SA-6 missiles, which are easy to move to avoid detection. Pentagon planners probably would seek to neutralize the SA-6s by warning Libya's military not to target NATO aircraft but also with airstrikes against batteries that took threatening actions, such as activating their radar, the officers said...

In the initial stages of a no-fly zone over Libya, air defense batteries might test NATO pilots. With Kadafi and his supporters desperately clinging to power, there is also the possibility that at least some Libyan fighters would attempt to engage NATO aircraft, several officers said. The Libyan air force flies Vietnam-era, Soviet-designed MIG fighters that are not considered much of a threat to U.S. aircraft.

Even so, retired Air Force Lt. Gen. David A. Deptula said, "If you are going to do this, you have to be prepared for the possibility that aircraft are going to be engaged in combat."

To carry out patrols over Libyan airspace 24 hours a day, the U.S and its allies would need hundreds of aircraft, including fighters and refueling tankers, Dunn said. The U.S. could reduce the number of aircraft required by flying only during the day, when attacks on anti-government rebels are most likely, or by going after only Libyan airplanes, not helicopters, he said.

Moving hundreds of aircraft to air bases around Libya would take several weeks, but it could be done without too much effect on U.S. combat operations in Afghanistan. It would not be possible to sustain a no-fly zone using fighters flying from U.S. aircraft carriers, Dunn said.

Before the U.S. and its allies could begin positioning aircraft, they would need consent from governments in countries near Libya to use bases, a hurdle that at a minimum would require winning U.N. authorization for the operation, as well as an endorsement from NATO.

To minimize flight times to Libya, it would be vital to have access to air bases in southern Italy, including a large installation in Naples, and the U.S. might also seek permission from Greece, Egypt or Tunisia, Dunn said.

Italy would look at allowing bases in the Mediterranean to be used by allies only if the operation was authorized by the United Nations, Foreign Minister Franco Frattini said Monday.

As for the Brits (and Russians):
http://news.sky.com/skynews/Home/World-News/Libya-Protests-RAF-Typhoons-Could-Enforce-No-Fly-Zone-Over-Libya/Article/201103115943119?lpos=World_News_Carousel_Region_1&lid=ARTICLE_15943119_Libya_Protests%3A_RAF_Typhoons_Could_Enforce_No-Fly_Zone_Over_Libya

Britain is considering basing Typhoon jets at RAF Akrotiri in Cyprus to enforce a no-fly zone over Libya, according to Sky News sources.

Two VC10 tanker aircraft are already in Cyprus, and have been offering support during the extraction of civilians from Libya.

In the plans currently being discussed at the Ministry of Defence, the VC10s would remain there to assist the fast jets.

David Cameron told MPs on Monday that he had asked the Chief of the Defence Staff, the head of Britain’s armed forces, to work with allies to see if a military no-fly zone was possible...

...Russia's top diplomat has poured cold water on the idea, saying world powers should focus instead on implementing sanctions.

Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov told reporters that world powers needed to "avoid the superfluous", when asked about the idea of creating an exclusion zone...

Could Canada contribute say 8-12 Hornets if the gov't decided to join in?  And would this gov't do so without a UNSC resolution?

Mark
Ottawa
 
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