Turmoil in Libya (2011) and post-Gaddafi blowback

[Edward Campbell]

Libya, competently governed (something which has hardly ever happened in history), doesn't need humanitarian aid. It is a rich country that can buy whatever its people need. Sadly, i doubt that, at the end of this imbroglio, there will be a competent government, so ...

 

[MarkOttawa]

I might add that it is now an armed rebellion (real civil war soon?) against a legitimate gov't that all in the West were sucking up to like crazy until moments ago.  Innocent civilian casualties hardly seem high under the circumstances.  What basis is there for any type of armed intervention?  Libya, following on Tunisia and Egypt, has become an emotional thing in the West, driven by the media.  Plus a sudden realization by Western politicians that their links with Qadhafi have become oh-so-embarrassing so he must go (probably guilt feelings too).  I cannot see what basis in law or precedent there is for Obama et al. to say Gadhafi "must go".  We are just making up the rules as we go along.

Rather reminds me of Kosovo 1999 and American determination to get rid of Milosovic come hell or high water, feeling betrayed by him.  It's stupid to personalize these things.

Meanwhile what about other nasty places?

Fears rise of Ivorian civil war
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/2f453e08-4672-11e0-aebf-00144feab49a.html?ftcamp=rss#axzz1FfVjLasn

AP: 53 peacekeepers killed in Somalia offensive
http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5hPImypnwWHvlvdp6GbZl_u5Al7fA?docId=5dc8db659342468cb972cb6ca7d354fa

Not much TV coverage, plus they are black.

Mark
Ottawa

 

[MarkOttawa]

Nastiness is not necessarily all on one side:

Libyan rebels accused of targeting blacks
Rights groups say African migrant workers and black Libyans face beatings and detention by rebel fighters who suspect them of being mercenaries hired by Moammar Kadafi to put down the rebellion.
http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/world/la-fg-libya-mercenaries-20110305,0,5517806.story

Guest workers from Ghana wait in vain to board a passenger ship in Benghazi harbor. Sub-Saharan African migrants and dark-skinned Libyans have faced harassment and detentions in recent weeks as rebel fighters go after suspected mercenaries said to be fighting for Kadafi. (Luis Sinco, Los Angeles Times / March 4, 2011)

Reporting from Benghazi, Libya
Advertisement

About a dozen African men stood lined along a hallway of the courthouse in the eastern city of Benghazi. The men were suspected of being mercenaries fighting on behalf of Libyan leader Moammar Kadafi and had been rousted from their homes in the morning, turned in by residents responding to a rebel campaign urging them to report "suspicious people."

We are construction workers, one of the men said, pleading his innocence to a Times reporter visiting the courthouse, which now serves as the headquarters of the rebel government.

But the interview was abruptly ended and the group of Africans were led away to detention by Muhammed Bala, who described himself as a security officer for the rebel government.

"We're out looking for mercenaries every day," Bala said.

Across eastern Libya, rebel fighters and their supporters are detaining, intimidating and frequently beating African immigrants and black Libyans, accusing them of fighting as mercenaries on behalf of Kadafi, witnesses and human rights workers say.

In a few instances, rebels have executed suspected mercenaries captured in battle, according to Human Rights Watch and local Libyans.

The rebel-led provisional government in Benghazi denies mistreating suspected mercenaries, though it acknowledges that it is detaining some for questioning. It says it has given human rights representatives access to detainees.

But rebel fighters and bands of gunmen who looted government weapons depots are reportedly instigating their own detentions and beatings.

Kadafi has long used mercenaries, many of them from sub-Saharan Africa, to help enforce his rule...

Mark
Ottawa

 

[MarkOttawa]

Tom Ricks:

Six considerations for discussing the imposition of a Libyan no-fly zone
http://ricks.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2011/03/03/six_considerations_for_discussing_the_imposition_of_a_libyan_no_fly_zone

I wish everyone talking about imposing a no-fly zone on Libya would take a deep breath. Americans have an odd habit of backing into war . We first deployed ground combat forces into Vietnam in the spring of 1965 simply to protect American air bases, for example. (Honestly, we didn't mean to violate Vizinni's law -- scroll down to the end of the poison discussion.)

Here are some of the issues that need to be examined. Anyone who advocates a no-fly zone should be required to answer them.

1. Imposing a no-fly zone is an act of war. For example, it would require attacking Qaddafi's air defense systems-not just anti-aircraft guns and missile batteries, but also radar and communications systems. We may also need some places out in the desert to base helicopters to pick up downed fliers. So, first question: Do we want to go to war with Qaddafi?

2. Hmmm, another American war in an Arab state -- what's not to like?..

As General Mattis once said, if you're going to take Vienna, take f---ing Vienna.

Mark
Ottawa

 

[Edward Campbell]

And then there’s this, based on a tweet from the Prime Minister’s Chief of Staff (reproduced under the Fair Dealing provisions (§29) of the Copyright Act from the Globe and Mail):

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/world/africa-mideast/canada-to-send-another-military-rescue-flight-to-libya/article1931350/

Canada to send another military rescue flight to Libya

Ottawa— The Canadian Press
Published Saturday, Mar. 05, 2011

Canada is sending another military flight to try and evacuate more of its citizens from strife-torn Libya.

Prime Minister Stephen Harper's spokesman Dimitri Soudas sent out a tweet saying a Canadian Forces flight was scheduled to airlift more citizens from the North African country on Saturday.

The Canadian air force has been sending planes into Libya over the past week, but getting landing permission has been a nightmare due to widespread confusion on the ground. The lack of an electronic link with the capital Tripoli has meant all landing rights requests must be faxed and often there are few people at the other end to collect the documents.

Canadians in Libya have been instructed to get to appropriate sea ports or airport evacuation points if they want to leave the country.

Unlike a few other countries, Canada has not proposed bold extraction missions to pluck its stranded citizens from the chaos.

The Netherlands tried to conduct such a mission this week, but it backfired with three Dutch marines captured by forces loyal to Libyan leader Moammar Gadhafi.

Libya has been mired in chaos as Gadhafi loyalists clash with opposing rebels. Hundreds have been killed and tens of thousands have fled the violence.

The crisis in the country is already far worse than any of the other uprisings in the Arab world this year as Mr. Gadhafi has unleashed a violent crackdown on anyone who opposes him. His political foes have taken up arms in their attempt to remove him from the post he has held for 41 years.

Canada and other countries have condemned Mr. Gadhafi for his actions and have imposed a wide range of sanctions on the leader and his regime.

The Harper government has also sent a frigate to join an international flotilla gathering off the coast of Libya, but has implied the military buildup is for humanitarian relief purposes for the moment.

HMCS Charlottetown was dispatched on Wednesday. There have been suggestions it could be used for relief operations, but the frigate is not set up to carry much cargo.

Canada has also promised millions of dollars in humanitarian assistance to Libya, but it will be sent through non-governmental organizations, such as the International Committee of the Red Cross and the International Organization for Migration.

The further politicization of operations.

Of course "Canada has not proposed bold extraction missions to pluck its stranded citizens from the chaos." How could a country mount a "bold extraction mission" when the PMO tweets all the bloody details?

 

[The Bread Guy]

The further politicization of operations.

Of course "Canada has not proposed bold extraction missions to pluck its stranded citizens from the chaos." How could a country mount a "bold extraction mission" when the PMO tweets all the bloody details?

If only they'd tweeted more about the Afghan mission....

 

[Armymedic]

All operations IRT Libya are going to be politically motivated.

 

[a_majoor]

Rebels declare a provisional government:

http://www.p2pnet.net/story/49758

The new Republic of Libya: temporary council
p2pnet view P2P | Freedom:- Libyans determined to rid themselves of Muammar Gaddafi, the dictator who’s ruled their lives for more than 40 years, have published a declaration for a temporary council in the Republic of Libya, says Alive in Libya.

Named in article 5 as president; and, deputy president and official spokesman, respectively, “Based on agreement of municipal councils across various liberated areas”, are:

Mustafa Abdul Jaleel
Abdul Hafid Abdul Qader Ghoga
The post doesn’t include details.

The original, in Arabic, can be viewed here – http://www.libya-alyoum.com/news/index.php?id=21&textid=2554, says the post.


The English language translation is in full below >>>

The Libyan Republic
Declaration of the Establishment of the National Transitional Temporary Council

In affirmation of the sovereignty of the Libyan people over the entirety of their territory, land, sea, and air; and in response to the demands of the Libyan people, towards the realization of the free will with which they shaped the uprising of February 17th; and in preservation of the Libyan people’s national unity; we resolve to establish a national council named ‘the National Transitional Temporary Council’ to be the only legitimate representative of the Libyan people.

Article 1

Functions

1. To ensure the safety and peace of citizens and the national territory

2. To coordinate national efforts to liberate the remaining quarters of the nation

3. To coordinate the efforts of local councils working towards the return of civic life

4. To supervise the military council so as to ensure the realization of a new doctrine for the national army towards the defense of the Libyan people and protection of its borders

5. To supervise the election of a founding assembly charged with developing a new constitution for the country to be submitted to public referendum, so that the legitimacy of the constitution is founded on:  the will of the people, the triumphant uprising of February 17th, respect for human rights, guarantee of civil liberties, separation of powers, an independent judiciary and the establishment of national institutions that provide for broad and pluralistic participation, the peaceful transition of authority and the right of representation for every segment of Libyan society

6. To form a transitional government to pave the way for free elections

7. To conduct and to steer foreign policy, to organize relations with foreign nations and international and regional organizations, and to represent the Libyan people before them

Article 2

The Council’s Organizational Structure

1. The Council is composed of 30 members, representing all of Libya’s regions and all segments of Libyan society, with youth membership representing no less than 5 members.

2. The Council will select from its members a president, an official spokesperson and coordinators for a variety of domestic and foreign functions.

Article 3

Seat of the Council

The Council’s permanent seat is at the capital, Tripoli, taking Benghazi as its temporary seat until the capital is liberated.

Article 4

It is the responsibility of the Council to set protocols for its regular and emergency meetings and to make decisions in accordance with the interests of the Libyan people, in a manner that does not contradict the people’s demands, the basis of which were declared by the uprising of February 17th:  the fall of the Gaddafi regime and the establishment of a civil, constitutional and democratic state.

 

[The Bread Guy]

Rebels declare a provisional government:

http://www.p2pnet.net/story/49758

Cool - if it's the only one to do so over the next while.

 

[CougarKing]

From an update at the British Military Current events thread:

8 UK SAS Soldiers captured in Libya

 

[Fishbone Jones]

~shrug~  Apparently, it's "just politics."

Paul Martin had a very close relationship with several high-ranking Tamil Tiger personnel. See Stewart Bell, Ch 2 "Snow Tigers," Cold Terror: How Canada Nurtures and Exports Terrorism Around the World.

But then, he was the Liberal PM....and the ex-pat Tamil community was in his riding -- it's only votes, right?

And just to add to the conspiricy, how much influence did Power Corporation sway over the deal. After all, Martin (Canada Steamship), the Chretians (Bombardier), Mulroneys, Raes, et al are all beholden to this conglomorate which also has major influence with our public Canadian oil. Don't forget, Trudeau gave every taxpayer shares in PetroCan when it was bought and nationalized, although no matter how much I ask they won't cash me out )

 

[tomahawk6]

They were escorting a diplomat who might as well have been MI6. Hope they are released forthwith.

 

[The Bread Guy]

Since the Sunday Times page doesn't seem to be working for me (every link on the front page brings you to a review of a TV show with a priest in it), here's more from the BBC:

The Ministry of Defence says it will not comment on Sunday Times claims that eight members of the SAS have been seized by rebel forces in Libya.

Defence Secretary Liam Fox told the BBC a small diplomatic team was in Benghazi and "they were in touch with them".

BBC correspondent Jon Leyne, in eastern Libya, said he had "strong suspicions" the reports were true.

The paper claims a unit was trying to put UK diplomats in touch with rebels trying to topple the Gaddafi regime.

It says eight SAS men, in plain clothes but armed, were captured.

The BBC's Jon Leyne, who is in the main rebel stronghold city of Benghazi, said: "I have been speaking to people from the authorities here who've not denied it and have spoken in terms that it probably is true without actually saying as much."

In a statement, the MoD said: "We do not comment on the special forces." ....

... and AFP:

Britain on Sunday refused to confirm a report that Special Air Service soldiers and a diplomat were being held in Benghazi but revealed that a "small British diplomatic team" was in Libya's second city.

The Sunday Times newspaper said the SAS unit, reportedly up to eight men, were captured along with the diplomat they were escorting through the rebel-held east and who was seeking contact with opponents of Libyan leader Moamer Kadhafi.

"We can neither confirm nor deny the report," a Foreign Office spokeswoman told AFP.

The defence ministry said it did not comment on the special forces, while Defence Secretary Liam Fox told BBC television: "I can confirm that a small British diplomatic team is in Benghazi.

"We are in touch with them but it would be inappropriate for me to comment further," he added ....

 

[tomahawk6]

The BBC is reporting the SAS and diplomats have left Libya and are onboard HMS Cumberland.

 

[Edward Campbell]

And then there’s this, based on a tweet from the Prime Minister’s Chief of Staff (reproduced under the Fair Dealing provisions (§29) of the Copyright Act from the Globe and Mail):

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/world/africa-mideast/canada-to-send-another-military-rescue-flight-to-libya/article1931350/

The further politicization of operations.

Of course "Canada has not proposed bold extraction missions to pluck its stranded citizens from the chaos." How could a country mount a "bold extraction mission" when the PMO tweets all the bloody details?

And now this, reproduced under the Fair Dealing provisions (§29) of the Copyright Act from the Globe and Mail:

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/world/africa-mideast/canadian-military-flight-evacuates-more-citizens-from-libya/article1931350/

Canadian military flight evacuates more citizens from Libya

Ottawa— The Canadian Press
Sunday, Mar. 06, 2011 11:59AM EST

Ottawa has confirmed a military flight was able to pluck more Canadians and other foreign nationals from strife-torn Libya on Saturday.

A spokesman for Defence Minister Peter MacKay said the Canadian Forces plane flew in from Malta and landed “without incident.”

“It's boarded a number of evacuees,” Jay Paxton told The Canadian Press.

Prime Minister Stephen Harper's spokesman Dimitri Soudas tweeted that the C130 plane landed in Malta late Saturday afternoon carrying nine Canadian citizens.

Mr. Soudas added that the plane also evacuated foreign nationals from the U.S., U.K., Ukraine and other countries.

Earlier Saturday Mr. Soudas had tweeted that almost 330 Canadians have been pulled from Libya so far.
Canada's evacuation efforts have suffering a string of setbacks though. A military transport was denied landing rights in Libya last week and at least two civilian aircraft chartered by the Foreign Affairs Department left the north African country with no passengers in late February.

Many Canadians leaving Libya have done so aboard ships and planes belonging to other countries. But the government has defended its efforts saying it worked hard to secure the safety of its citizens by co-ordinating closely with its allies.

The Canadian air force has been sending planes into Libya over the past week, but getting landing permission has been a nightmare due to widespread confusion on the ground. The lack of an electronic link with the capital Tripoli has meant all landing rights requests must be faxed and often there are few people at the other end to collect the documents.

Canadians in Libya have been instructed to get to appropriate sea ports or airport evacuation points if they want to leave the country.

Unlike a few other countries, Canada has not proposed bold extraction missions to pluck its stranded citizens from the chaos.

The Netherlands tried to conduct such a mission this week, but it backfired with three Dutch marines captured by forces loyal to Libyan leader Moammar Gadhafi.

The United States is stepping up efforts to repatriate foreigners fleeing Libya.

In the United States, the State Department said Saturday four U.S. military aircraft are picking up Egyptians who crossed the Libyan border into Tunisia, and flying them to Cairo. Two Marine KC-130 aircraft left Djerba, Tunisia, with 132 Egyptians, and two Air Force C-130s are en route to Tunisia to evacuate more.

The government also said it is contributing $3-million to the International Organization for Migration to help repatriate thousands of foreign nationals who crossed into Tunisia to escape clashes between the Gadhafi government and the insurrection against him.

The announcement marks the latest in a series of relief flights. On Friday, the U.S. sent two cargo planes into Tunisia with supplies for refugees from Libya.

Libya has been mired in chaos as Gadhafi loyalists clash with opposing rebels. Hundreds have been killed and tens of thousands have fled the violence.

The crisis in the country is already far worse than any of the other uprisings in the Arab world this year as Mr. Gadhafi has unleashed a violent crackdown on anyone who opposes him. His political foes have taken up arms in their attempt to remove him from the post he has held for 41 years.

Canada and other countries have condemned Mr. Gadhafi for his actions and have imposed a wide range of sanctions on the leader and his regime.

The Harper government has also sent a frigate to join an international flotilla gathering off the coast of Libya, but has implied the military buildup is for humanitarian relief purposes for the moment.

HMCS Charlottetown was dispatched on Wednesday. There have been suggestions it could be used for relief operations, but the frigate is not set up to carry much cargo.

Canada has also promised millions of dollars in humanitarian assistance to Libya, but it will be sent through non-governmental organizations, such as the International Committee of the Red Cross and the International Organization for Migration.

Well done, Air Force. 

 

[MarkOttawa]

British and Canadian air evacuation efforts: Chris Taylor does some fine digging and comparing at Taylor Empire Airways, including photos and interesting maps:

1) RAF civilian extractions from Libya
http://taylorempireairways.com/2011/03/raf-civilian-extractions-from-libya/

...
I’ve illustrated the potential destinations and flight times in the graphic below.  I’ve also included all of Libya’s oil concessions (territories leased to Libyan or foreign petroleum companies for exploration and exploitation of oil fields) and known oil fields; this helps give us an idea of where the most petroleum-related activity is taking place, and subsequently where the most foreigners are likely to be.

Libyan oil fields, oil concessions, and potential extraction airfields used by 47 Sqn on February 26th and 27th, 2011...

The idea that our air force should seek permission from a tyrant’s collapsing bureaucracy is a farce. But this is Canada, so we pay for our men and women in uniform to be better-dressed surrogates for Air Canada and WestJet, rather than a force that can go into hostile environments and remove Canadians (and allies) at the decision of the Dominion government.  As the SAS, SBS and RAF have demonstrated, this is not a lack of equipment or capability; it is simply a failure of political will...

One might note that acting boldly, likely not in accord with international law, to help one's own nationals is still far different from acting to help depose a foreign government.

2) CF Operation Mobile air evacuation
http://taylorempireairways.com/2011/03/cf-operation-mobile-air-evacuation/

...

I am a little curious about the maps in the last photo [in Mr Taylor's post, not included here].  The map closest to the camera depicts the location of CF air and naval assets around the islands of Malta.  The far map is Libya, but it is difficult to read except for a half-dozen notations.  I’ve done my best to reproduce it here.

Presumably the red- and black-outlined areas depict government- and rebel-held areas within Libya, though the resolution is not great enough to see what all those small notes actually say...

Once again, excellent work by Mr Taylor.  Do take a look at the full posts.  Meanwhile the Brits' special forces are now out of a bit of bother:

Libya unrest: UK diplomatic team released by rebels
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-12660163

Mark
Ottawa

 

[tomahawk6]

There has been recent shootdowns of Libyan jets with Syrian pilots. Dont know if its rebel propaganda or not. Gaddafi has the money to buy mercenaries from anywhere.

 

[jollyjacktar]

I caught some of an interview with our old friend Sunil Ram today on CBC TV.  Very entertaining and enlightening it was too.  Apparently he comes by his vast knowledge and expertise honestly, he said he was a combat veteran of three wars in the middle east no less.  I'm at a bit of a loss as to which ones, but damn he sounded sure of himself...  :nod:  Apparently the forecast is extended periods of uncertainty due to a cold front of hand wringing on the West's behalf, whereas if we (the West) were to drop supplies and enforce a NFZ it will be over by the weekend.  (And we can all go back to reasonable gouging at the pumps I guess.)

 

[tomahawk6]

Ah that it explains it then. Sunil Ram served with the IDF.

 

[Edward Campbell]

Ah that it explains it then. Sunil Ram served with the IDF.

Or this "explains" it all (well, two out of three ain't bad):

I am an expert in the field of peacekeeping and military affairs with over a decade’s worth of experience as a military advisor with the Saudi Royal Family, including involvement in the 1991 Gulf War and the 1994 Yemeni War.

Source: Sunil Ram's biography on the American Military University website