US Presidential Election 2024 - Trump vs Harris - Vote Hard with a Vengence

[KevinB]

You're going to have look up what DNC court packing means to follow that point of discussion. (Biden has suggested changing SCOTUS from 9 to 15 justices IIRC)

Biden can suggest what he wants, it can’t get done in the current climate. Same with the bizarre Democratic concept of adding more States, ain’t going to fly.

It's just a prediction Kevin, but let's come back to this when it's all said and done.

Fair, but the Senate is unlike to swing dramatically, it’s almost like Senate seats have become a Hereditary position now passed down by the incumbents party to the next generation

 

[Fishbone Jones]

Biden can suggest what he wants, it can’t get done in the current climate. Same with the bizarre Democratic concept of adding more States, ain’t going to fly.

Fair, but the Senate is unlike to swing dramatically, it’s almost like Senate seats have become a Hereditary position now passed down by the incumbents party to the next generation

Perhaps it can't be done under the current rules, but it doesn’t stop the democrats from pushing the idea whenever it presents itself.

The senate doesn’t have to swing dramatically, but just by a few votes. Just enough to give the GOP an operable majority.

 

[Brad Sallows]

He named 3 of the 6 (out of a total of 9) conservative judges to the USSC. I’m not sure what your definition of “pack the USSC” is, but having a 2/3 majority on one side isn’t exactly unbiased to me.

"Court packing" means adding justices, and has since FDR proposed it.

(I am aware that some people have been trying to broaden the definition to include the customary way in which presidents nominate justices along perceived ideological lines, but that's just the usual game of trying to blur a word so that it acquires a less reputable flavour. "Court packing" does not poll well, so Democrats would love to associate the phrase with the ordinary nominations process whenever Republicans are doing the appointing.)

Just How Sharp Was The Supreme Court’s Rightward Turn This Term?

Conservatives got what they wanted from this year’s Supreme Court term — and then some. In a flurry of decisions released at the end of June, the court’s …

fivethirtyeight.com

Pay less attention to what journalists want to push, and more to what people associated with the legal profession have to say. It's regarded as a 3/3/3 court with respect to how justices cleave along the lines of different issues. There aren't that many issues on which either the "3" or the "6" vote as a bloc, and the "3" do it more often than the "6". Necessarily they appear to vote as blocs on unanimous decisions, but those are self-evidently not examples of partisan bloc voting. See here.

 

[Brad Sallows]

If the momentum continues my guess is Senate 55-45 for the Rs and Trump with over 300 EC votes. Naturally of course if counting stations are shut down early, kicking everyone out, and then magically by sunrise discovering 300,000 more ballots for Harris in key swing districts, my prediction would be invalid.

A realistic number is 52 Republicans in Senate. 55 would be a "2 x stretch" target.

A handful of states are already warning they might need a couple of weeks, so don't expect any sunrise surprises.

 

[Fishbone Jones]

He named 3 of the 6 (out of a total of 9) conservative judges to the USSC. I’m not sure what your definition of “pack the USSC” is, but having a 2/3 majority on one side isn’t exactly unbiased to me.

Just How Sharp Was The Supreme Court’s Rightward Turn This Term?

Conservatives got what they wanted from this year’s Supreme Court term — and then some. In a flurry of decisions released at the end of June, the court’s …

fivethirtyeight.com

He simply nominated them. A Democrat majority Senate approved their appointment.

 

[Lumber]

He simply nominated them. A Democrat majority Senate approved their appointment.

What? They were nominated and approved during Republican majority senates.

 

[dimsum]

He simply nominated them. A Democrat majority Senate approved their appointment.

That is incorrect.

List of nominations to the Supreme Court of the United States - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

 

[QV]

A realistic number is 52 Republicans in Senate. 55 would be a "2 x stretch" target.

A handful of states are already warning they might need a couple of weeks, so don't expect any sunrise surprises.

Realistically in a normal election cycle. Let's see what happens with Trump 2.0 and the next few weeks, where anything can happen. At present there are 51 leaning or solid Rs, 46 leaning or solid Ds ... and 5 toss up states... This could very well swing more R.

 

[Lumber]

Realistically in a normal election cycle. Let's see what happens with Trump 2.0 and the next few weeks, where anything can happen. At present there are 51 leaning or solid Rs, 46 leaning or solid Ds ... and 5 toss up states... This could very well swing more R.

My prediction is 51D senate seats, and 292 EVs for Kamala.

 

[suffolkowner]

My prediction is 51D senate seats, and 292 EVs for Kamala.

I wonder about that. If some follow Kevins lead and balance out a Democratic presidential choice with a Republican choice on the rest of the ballot

 

[Brad Sallows]

He simply nominated them. A Democrat majority Senate approved their appointment.

Maybe you were thinking of the Democrats taking the House in 2018?

I can't imagine any practical circumstances under which a Democratic majority would have confirmed any of Trump's nominations as given.

• Gorsuch was nominated by Trump after Republicans refused to even vote on Obama's nominee Garland. I suspect Democrats would have insisted on a nominee of their choosing.
• Kavanaugh's nomination was polluted by baseless accusations of scandal. I take that as evidence there was almost no good will whatsoever among Democrats, who again I would have expected to counter with their own names. They certainly could not have confirmed Kavanaugh after the kinds of accusations they made.
• Barrett was nominated to replace Ginsburg, who was some kind of hero to many Democrats. That was a hard pill for them to swallow. Of the three, I can barely conceive that they might have conceded Barrett's nomination; but, more likely would have been another negotiation.

In all cases, I would have expected Democrats to take advantage of the "advise" part of the Senate's role to put short lists of their own to the president.

 

[Remius]

I wonder about that. If some follow Kevins lead and balance out a Democratic presidential choice with a Republican choice on the rest of the ballot

This is my thought as well. That many republicans like a Kevin will vote house and senate one way and vote Harris as president or spoil/not vote

Harris Trump 2024 Electoral Map Based on Polls - 270toWin

The 2024 Harris vs. Trump electoral map based on public opinion polling. Where no polling is available, the Biden-Trump average is used.

www.270towin.com

Neat little tool to use for predictive models and scenarios.

 

[QV]

Harris Finally Crashes and Burns on CNN | National Review

Even CNN’s own analysts panned the Democratic nominee’s performance. This was her first authentic campaign disaster.

www.nationalreview.com

Harris flaming out as Trump gains momentum. Have we reached a point where Harris is so bad that even CNN can't color over this?

 

[Fishbone Jones]

Harris Finally Crashes and Burns on CNN | National Review

Even CNN’s own analysts panned the Democratic nominee’s performance. This was her first authentic campaign disaster.

www.nationalreview.com

Harris flaming out as Trump gains momentum. Have we reached a point where Harris is so bad that even CNN can't color over this?

I've only caught a few clips so far and will watch the whole thing in a couple of hours, but from what I've seen and the commentary from other talking heads, it was another shit show. While she appeared somewhat coherent on some subjects, she lapsed back into the word salad when the questions became pointed and tough. I'll reserve my final judgement for when I watch the whole thing.

 

[Fishbone Jones]

Maybe you were thinking of the Democrats taking the House in 2018?

I can't imagine any practical circumstances under which a Democratic majority would have confirmed any of Trump's nominations as given.

• Gorsuch was nominated by Trump after Republicans refused to even vote on Obama's nominee Garland. I suspect Democrats would have insisted on a nominee of their choosing.
• Kavanaugh's nomination was polluted by baseless accusations of scandal. I take that as evidence there was almost no good will whatsoever among Democrats, who again I would have expected to counter with their own names. They certainly could not have confirmed Kavanaugh after the kinds of accusations they made.
• Barrett was nominated to replace Ginsburg, who was some kind of hero to many Democrats. That was a hard pill for them to swallow. Of the three, I can barely conceive that they might have conceded Barrett's nomination; but, more likely would have been another negotiation.

In all cases, I would have expected Democrats to take advantage of the "advise" part of the Senate's role to put short lists of their own to the president.

It's becoming increasingly difficult, for me, to keep the political machinations of two countries straight in my 70+ year old head.

 

[Fishbone Jones]

Neat little tool to use for predictive models and scenarios.

 

[Remius]

Neat little tool to use for predictive models and scenarios.

Christ…

 

[Lumber]

Neat little tool to use for predictive models and scenarios.

I would bet my house that Trump doesn't win the popular vote, so I stopped watching around that point.

 

[Fishbone Jones]

I would bet my house that Trump doesn't win the popular vote, so I stopped watching around that point.

Of course you did.

 

[daftandbarmy]

An interesting breakdown, admitting that polls have been inaccurate in the past...

The polls could underestimate Harris’s or Trump’s support​

A polling average is the best way to understand the state of play in a presidential race, but as we know from previous presidential cycles, the polls aren’t always right. Take a look at how polling errors in the past three presidential elections would affect our current 2024 polling averages.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/elections/interactive/2024/presidential-polling-averages/