US Presidential Election 2024 - Trump vs Harris - Vote Hard with a Vengence

[Brad Sallows]

I would bet my house that Trump doesn't win the popular vote, so I stopped watching around that point.

Don't be in a hurry to bet as much as the house.

On this date the RCP national average (proxy for popular vote) is/was:
2024 : D+0.3 (Harris)
2020 : D+7.9 (Biden)
2016 : D+5.5 (Clinton)

Final popular vote:
2020 : D+4.5 (Biden +7M votes)
2016 : D+2.1 (Clinton +3M votes)

If pollsters haven't corrected for relative performance, Harris is in trouble and polling where it could indicate she will lose the popular vote. (If "D+0.6" is (crudely) worth approximately 1M votes, the possible result is on the edge.)

No-one knows if polling accuracy has improved, and we can only ever compare the final polls to the election result anyways. Prudent best guess is still a 50:50 race for EVs and Harris wins the popular vote.

 

[Fishbone Jones]

No-one knows if polling accuracy has improved, and we can only ever compare the final polls to the election result anyways. Prudent best guess is still a 50:50 race for EVs and Harris wins the popular vote.

So long as the people who pay hundreds of thousands for polls expect certain results, the polls will never be accurate.

 

[Cloud Cover]

Interesting thread by an Australian (tourist?) on his attendance at a Trump rally.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1849551013654692093

 

[KevinB]

I don't see how Harris doesn't get 270.

Mainly as Trump hasn’t gained anything over 2020, and most definitely has LOST supporters. He’s a sucking chest wound to the Republican Party.

No matter how much the South African Nazi tries to pour money towards buying the election for Trump, the only place Trump is going in 2025 is to prison.

 

[KevinB]

So long as the people who pay hundreds of thousands for polls expect certain results, the polls will never be accurate.

Irony…

 

[dimsum]

Interesting thread by an Australian (tourist?) on his attendance at a Trump rally.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1849551013654692093

I don’t have X so only see the pictures, not the thread. What’s the gist of it?

I don't see how Harris doesn't get 270.

Mainly as Trump hasn’t gained anything over 2020, and most definitely has LOST supporters. He’s a sucking chest wound to the Republican Party.

No matter how much the South African Nazi tries to pour money towards buying the election for Trump, the only place Trump is going in 2025 is to prison.

Tying to the “Russia in the 21st Century” thread, Musk having private conversations with Putin isn’t helping…

 

[Lumber]

I don’t have X so only see the pictures, not the thread. What’s the gist of it?


Tying to the “Russia in the 21st Century” thread, Musk having private conversations with Putin isn’t helping…

The gist was that he was really impressed by it. It was packed, the people were really truly enthusiastic and into it, Trump was self-deprecating, it involved more of the usual political talk then he expected, and those who left early (he spoke to them outside) didn't leave because they were bored but rather because they were tired and because they've already watched so many of his speeches in their entirety on YouTube they decided to go home to bed.

 

[dimsum]

The gist was that he was really impressed by it. It was packed, the people were really truly enthusiastic and into it, Trump was self-deprecating, it involved more of the usual political talk then he expected, and those who left early (he spoke to them outside) didn't leave because they were bored but rather because they were tired and because they've already watched so many of his speeches in their entirety on YouTube they decided to go home to bed.

Thanks for the summary.

The thing with rallies (both Dem and GOP) is that aside from that Aussie dude, people aren’t going to go if they’re not already supporters. If you’re going to a rally, you’re voting for that candidate unless something drastically changes - so they’re preaching to the choir.

The other aspect is the corollary - if you don’t attend the rally, that doesn’t mean you’re not voting for said candidate. It’s not like you have to attend a rally to cast a ballot. So Trump saying “he has the biggest rallies” means squat because if (made up numbers here) 100,000 people total have attended his rallies vs 50,000 for Harris’s rallies, it doesn’t mean that there aren’t another 100,000 voters voting for Harris who didn’t go for whatever reason. I don’t know why he fixates on size of his rallies, as if that’s the only indicator of support.

 

[Lumber]

I don’t know why he fixates on size of his rallies, as if that’s the only indicator of support.

Oh come on, yes you do.

 

[MrWhyt]

I don’t know why he fixates on size of his rallies, as if that’s the only indicator of support.

the same reason he lied about the size of his inauguration crowd.

 

[dimsum]

Swerving a little, I didn’t hear much about this movie coming out recently.

Americans don’t want to see a Trump movie but elsewhere it’s a different story

Controversial drama The Apprentice has bombed stateside but it’s attracting bigger audiences in other parts of the world

www.theguardian.com

 

[Brad Sallows]

I don't see how Harris doesn't get 270.

One half-quantitative way to see it is to look at the RCP Battleground numbers and compare them to final results of previous elections. Of the top 7, I think GA was the only one where Trump didn't overperform the polls significantly, and he's leading in all 7 right now. If pollsters haven't fixed systematic inaccuracies, it's likely he wins 6 if not all 7.

It's instinctively difficult to believe Trump might win, say, MI or WI. He's +0.2 in each today.

These are all from RCP; all are polling averages unless indicated as election result.

2020 Oct 25: Biden +9.0 MI, +5.5 WI
2020 final: Biden +4.2 MI, +6.7 WI
2020 election result: Biden +2.78 MI, +0.63 WI
(Trump +1.4 and +6.1 better than the polls indicated)

2016 Oct 25: Clinton +10.0 MI, +6.0 WI
2016 final: Clinton +3.4 MI, Clinton +6.5 WI
2016 election result: Trump +0.23 MI, +0.77 WI
(Trump +3.6 and +7.3 better than the polls indicated)

GA the "outlier", Trump +2.2 today.
2020 Oct 25: Biden +0.7
2020 final: Trump +1.0
Election result: Biden +0.23 (Trump -1.2 worse)
2016 Oct 25: Trump +3.3
2016 final: Trump +4.8
Election result: Trump +5.13 (Trump +0.3 better)

 

[Fishbone Jones]

Irony…

My history here shows I've never much believed in polls. That hasn't changed, nor have my reasoning for not believing them.

 

[Lumber]

TwOne half-quantitative way to see it is to look at the RCP Battleground numbers and compare them to final results of previous elections. Of the top 7, I think GA was the only one where Trump didn't overperform the polls significantly, and he's leading in all 7 right now. If pollsters haven't fixed systematic inaccuracies, it's likely he wins 6 if not all 7.

It's instinctively difficult to believe Trump might win, say, MI or WI. He's +0.2 in each today.

These are all from RCP; all are polling averages unless indicated as election result.

2020 Oct 25: Biden +9.0 MI, +5.5 WI
2020 final: Biden +4.2 MI, +6.7 WI
2020 election result: Biden +2.78 MI, +0.63 WI
(Trump +1.4 and +6.1 better than the polls indicated)

2016 Oct 25: Clinton +10.0 MI, +6.0 WI
2016 final: Clinton +3.4 MI, Clinton +6.5 WI
2016 election result: Trump +0.23 MI, +0.77 WI
(Trump +3.6 and +7.3 better than the polls indicated)

GA the "outlier", Trump +2.2 today.
2020 Oct 25: Biden +0.7
2020 final: Trump +1.0
Election result: Biden +0.23 (Trump -1.2 worse)
2016 Oct 25: Trump +3.3
2016 final: Trump +4.8
Election result: Trump +5.13 (Trump +0.3 better)

Two things.

1. I no longer really trust the polls. I really believe that there are a lot of Republicans supporters who have turned on Trump, but who are just too afraid to admit it. Things have gone from polarized to hostile to downright perlious. Alan Lichtman, who has predicted 9 of the last 10 elections correctly (though his methods are dubious) has predicted a Harris win, and for the audacity of just making that prediction, he says "I've been getting feedback that is vulgar, violent, threatening, and even beyond that, the safety and security of my family has been compromised.” In such a climate, and you were a "known republican voter" would you dare admit you weren't voting for Trump?

2. Turnout. I think a lot of Republicans who fall into the above category will simply not vote, or spoil their ballots. Further, women. LOTS of women, all voting for Harris. I think you will see more women vote in this election than ever before, especially for Harris.

 

[Fishbone Jones]

I don't see how Harris doesn't get 270.

Mainly as Trump hasn’t gained anything over 2020, and most definitely has LOST supporters. He’s a sucking chest wound to the Republican Party.

No matter how much the South African Nazi tries to pour money towards buying the election for Trump, the only place Trump is going in 2025 is to prison.

South African Nazi? Isn't the just a little over the top for someone, just because he supports someone you don't?

 

[Lumber]

South African Nazi? Isn't the just a little over the top for someone, just because he supports someone you don't?

Would your prefer Elon Goebbels?

 

[Brad Sallows]

Polls are just measurements; so, yes, they are inaccurate and subject to human orneriness. They're more useful than motivated hope.

A problem with Lichtman's method is operator bias. Someone has to make a judgement call on each question. If bias sways judgement, the output is untrustworthy/indeterminate.

There's also Nate Silver's model. Included here is a chart of win probabilities for ranges of national popular vote polls. You have to use his polling average; looking up the RCP average in the Silver Bulletin chart would be close to meaningless.

Silver has the average at D+1.3 as of yesterday; in the D+1 to +2 bracket that gives Harris a 26.3% chance. (At D+0 to +1 her chance is 7.7%.)

The RCP average today is at "tied".

I doubt two weeks of "Trump is approximately Hitler" is going to sway voters; people have found instances of "the Republican is practically Hitler" going back to Goldwater (60 years). And I see that the Cheney endorsements have aroused reactions from nausea to ire among far left progressives. If Harris loses, the recriminations circus is going to be exceptional this year.

 

[QV]

The LA Times and Washington Post are not endorsing anyone this year... even though the American Mussolini is on the ballot. Goes to show what hot air the dictator accusations really are.

 

[dimsum]

The LA Times and Washington Post are not endorsing anyone this year... even though the American Mussolini is on the ballot. Goes to show what hot air the dictator accusations really are.

Or, that the US has become so polarized that the corporate/editorial board decided not to endorse anyone at all.

Did they retract any stories? Will they change their slant in the next two weeks? Those would be better indicators.

 

[dimsum]

This is an interesting thing to say out loud…



To add: This is the actual exchange. He says it’s Ukraine’s decision to end the war, and that the US doesn’t have to like Russia but needs to get them to the table. Slightly more nuanced than the one above but if anyone thinks Russia will negotiate in good faith with Ukraine…

Vance says it is Ukraine's decision to end the war

During a town hall appearance with Chris Cuomo in NewsNation, Sen. JD Vance was asked if he believed Ukraine would have to cede land to Russia.

www.nbcnews.com

The more I hear him, the more I think JD Vance is the ultimate “well, he really means…” person for Trump. I’m not sure who will finally snap first - Vance or Trump’s spokesperson.