Guyana has very little to throw against Venezuela should they decide to invade. I wonder if Venezuela's waiting to gauge if any meaningful support shores up behind Guyana, or if they might instead just go for it and hope to quickly cement a fait accomplit? Would Brazil step up and commit forces to prevent or reverse it?
Venezuela - Possibility of Invasion of Guyana
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Staff Weenie
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Could Russia be pushing an old friend to start something on our side of the Atlantic to distract America?
Colin Parkinson
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It will be challenging to support Guyana militarily from Brazil as there is only one road connection. However Brazil could blockade Venezuela from the sea.
guyanachronicle.com
en.wikipedia.org
Paved road between Guyana, Brazil closer to fruition - Guyana Chronicle
GREATER opportunities are in the pipeline for Guyanese and Brazilians, as authorities move closer to finalising further arrangements for the paving of the
guyanachronicle.com
Brazilian Navy - Wikipedia
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The 101st says hold my beer…It will be challenging to support Guyana militarily from Brazil as there is only one road connection. However Brazil could blockade Venezuela from the sea.
Paved road between Guyana, Brazil closer to fruition - Guyana Chronicle
GREATER opportunities are in the pipeline for Guyanese and Brazilians, as authorities move closer to finalising further arrangements for the paving of the
Brazilian Navy - Wikipedia
I suspect that any Venezuelan action will have very serious immediate consequences.
Brazil has a Bde of Para’s and one Air Assault Bde — plus a Bde of Light forces, and a Bde of ‘Wilderness’ Troops (swamp fighters).
Basically 4 Bde plus their SoF ‘Bde’ (basically a SF Group and a Commando Bn) that aren’t needing the roads.
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daftandbarmy
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Quite possibly...
Russia expects a visit by Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro as the two oil producers deepen their cooperation and Russian companies seek to invest more in the South American country, President Vladimir Putin's oil point man said on Monday.
Venezuela boasts the world's largest proven oil reserves and Russia is the world's second largest oil exporter. A source familiar with the plans told Reuters on condition of anonymity that the Maduro visit would take place by the end of the year.
There was no immediate comment from Caracas.
Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak noted the importance of Russian oil cooperation with Venezuela, one of the five founding members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC).
"We note the importance of continuing joint work to stabilise the global energy market, including in the OPEC+ format," Novak said at a meeting of a Russia-Venezuela inter-governmental commission in Moscow.
/cloudfront-us-east-2.images.arcpublishing.com/reuters/6BCZBEGI5JIMZN3OY2HB4L4IHQ.jpg)
Russia expects Venezuela's Maduro to visit as relations deepen - Novak
Russia expects a visit by Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro as the two oil producers deepen their cooperation and Russian companies seek to invest more in the South American country, President Vladimir Putin's oil point man said on Monday.
www.reuters.com
Colin Parkinson
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Yea I was thinking looking at West > East roads and airfields. The Venezuelans have a fairly large army, but almost no logistical support. The Navy does not stand a chance against Brazil and the Air Force could be the biggest threat. They have SU-30 and F-16, not sure how many actually fly and 3 Hercs to drop paratroopers , so perhaps 2 companies of paratroopers?
They have a Jungle "Division" and Ranger Brigade. i see them possibly attempting a assault on Georgetown to capture the airport , supported by a quick coastal assault (they have 4 landing ships) The air assault has roughly 586km to fly to make the assault.
Coupled with riverine forces moving along the various rivers seizing the small towns and administrative centres along those rivers. Likely trying to seize any resource extraction sites. Quick look on GE does not show much of a road network, mostly rivers, jungle with likely muddy tracks.
This is likley to be an objective Morawhanna - Wikipedia
As well as this regional admin centre that also has a 500m long airfield Mabaruma - Wikipedia
Keep in mind that most of the air assaults will be launched from Tumeremo (A town I am familiar with as spent a bit of time in that area doing mining exploration) It has 3,000m runway. Most of Guyana western towns are within 200km of that.
Brad Sallows
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Maybe they're just planning to go through closets and attics looking for rare stamps they can sell to offset their fiscal difficulties.
Blackadder1916
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Brazil mobilizes military amid potential Venezuela-Guyana conflict
The Brazilian Ministry of Defense has announced the deployment of troops to its northern border as a preemptive "defensive measure" in response to escalating tensions between Venezuela and Guyana. The dispute between the two nations revolves around the territory of Essequibo, encompassing an...
defence-blog.com
Brazil mobilizes military amid potential Venezuela-Guyana conflict
Nov 30, 2023 Modified date: 10 mins agoThe Brazilian Ministry of Defense has announced the deployment of troops to its northern border as a preemptive “defensive measure” in response to escalating tensions between Venezuela and Guyana.
The dispute between the two nations revolves around the territory of Essequibo, encompassing an area of 159,542 square kilometers rich in vital natural resources like oil, gas, mining, hydraulic, and forestry industries, all managed by Guyana.
Venezuela’s Maduro regime plans to conduct a referendum on December 12, excluding the local populace, with the ultimate goal of annexing the disputed territory.
The Brazilian government, concerned about regional conflicts involving neighboring countries, dispatched its top foreign policy advisor and former Foreign Minister, Celso Amorim, to mediate and prevent a potential confrontation.
“The Ministry of Defense is monitoring the situation. Defensive measures have been reinforced in the northern border region, contributing to an increased military presence,” stated Brazil’s Ministry in a Wednesday evening release.
The Lula da Silva administration emphasized that “defensive measures have been bolstered” along its northern border in response to the territorial dispute.
Recently, Guyana raised the possibility of establishing “military bases” in Essequibo with support from the United States.
“We were never interested in military bases, but we must defend our national interests,” remarked Guyana’s Vice President, Bharrat Jagdeo, during a press conference.
“We are interested in maintaining peace in our country and at our borders, but we are working with our allies to ensure a comprehensive plan,” he added, announcing the upcoming visit of U.S. Defense Ministry officials next week.
“We will have two teams from the U.S. Defense Ministry visiting next week, followed by several visits in December and high-level representation,” Jagdeo confirmed.
“All available options will be used,” stated the Vice President, as reported by AFP.
The mobilization of military forces by Brazil underscores growing apprehensions and proactive measures taken by regional powers to manage and mitigate the escalating conflict dynamics between Venezuela and Guyana.
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My thoughts? Another socialist rogue state that feels emboldened by the weakness of the US to hold them accountable.
Spencer100
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100%
Does UK have defence treaty with them? If so just fly the 2 RGR in and call it day.
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Time for an aircraft carrier task force? US? UK? Cheaper to deter than dislodge, Ukraine should have taught us that
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I think you meant another Russian proxy that is trying to help deflect their collapse…
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I wonder if it is time for the ready brigade of the 82nd Airborne to do an exercise in South America? Maybe with some Royal Marines for good measure?
MilEME09
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I offer the vandoo's as tribute as well
GK .Dundas
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I foget what the Brits called the little op in 1972 when Guatemala was rattling a sabre at what is now Belize . They took the carrier Ark Royal from somewhere in the mid Atlantic drove her to within 1000 mile from Belize .
Where they promptly launched two Buccaneers who flew a demonstration flight over the capitol Georgetown.
The other guys got the message and promptly backed down.
Perhaps it's time to replay that scenario.
Where they promptly launched two Buccaneers who flew a demonstration flight over the capitol Georgetown.
The other guys got the message and promptly backed down.
Perhaps it's time to replay that scenario.
daftandbarmy
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It's a scenario that's been played out many times over the decades, and is not likely to end any time soon. Desertions notwithstanding :
A series of meetings, begun in 1969, ended abruptly in 1972 when the United Kingdom, in response to intelligence suggesting an imminent Guatemalan invasion, announced it was sending the aircraft carrier HMS Ark Royal and her air wing (Phantom FG.1s and Blackburn Buccaneers) alongside 8,000 troops to Belize to conduct amphibious exercises.[20] Guatemala responded by deploying its own troops along the border. Talks resumed in 1973, but broke off in 1975 when tensions flared once again. Guatemala again began massing troops on the border, and the United Kingdom responded by deploying troops, along with a battery of 105mm field guns, surface-to-air missiles, six fighter jets, and a frigate. Following this deployment, tensions were defused, largely as a result of many Guatemalan soldiers deserting.[16]
Belizean–Guatemalan territorial dispute - Wikipedia
The US has 3 carrier groups in/around the Med on standby if things kick off there, so no more carrier strike groups to go around
The UK carrier group just got home a few days ago from exercising with the various other players in her capability umbrella...what better time than to go do it for real off a real world potential hotspot?
I'm sure the various crews would be pumped for it tbh
What's the French carrier up to right now?
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Chinese proxy?
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