Brexit Vote: 51.9% leave, 48.1% stay

[YZT580]

Which is why most Canadians vote against change.  We like voting for someone who will actually (even if only in theory) represent our concerns in the national legislature.  We don't like the concept of voting and then having a collection of party hacks fill in the blanks.

 

[The Bread Guy]

... Parties will be the death of parliamentary democracy.  They act against a system based on a local constituency representative who works on behalf of all his electors ...

QFTT

 

[cavalryman]

We don't like the concept of voting and then having a collection of party hacks fill in the blanks.

This is exactly what the fans of PR don't seem to get...  :brickwall:

 

[Fishbone Jones]

So if we go by Trudeau's plan, can you not just put the single person you want in all three slots, or leave the other two slots empty?

 

[Kirkhill]

And back to Brexit:

Quentin Letts of the Mail has it about right.  Shakespeare perturbed at not writing this script.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-3691290/QUENTIN-LETTS-Treachery-plots-sudden-twists-fate-Shakespeare-s-got-Westminster.html

And why do the words "A Very British Coup" keep bumping around my brain?

 

[Good2Golf]

That's a great piece!!!

If there was one country that could successfully pull off a EUxit, it's the UK.  They may take a short-term hit, but I believe that time will out the truth of the issue that, like the motto of the fabled SAS, those who dare, will 'win' in the end.  At least the citizens of the UK will have their fate determine both by their own actions and those whom they have elected, not some unelected faceless Eurocrats operating in the dark shadows of the political back alleys of Brussels...oh, and for four days a year, Strabourg.

I sincerely wish UK citizens all the best; they will, I believe, be much envied in the years to come by many of those remaining within the contorted, highly over-regulated life that is the EU. :nod:

:2c:

G2G

 

[ModlrMike]

The choice of Mr Johnson as Foreign Secretary was predictable. It certainly says much about how Mrs May intends to proceed.

 

[Kirkhill]

The choice of Mr Johnson as Foreign Secretary was predictable. It certainly says much about how Mrs May intends to proceed.

You must have a better crystal ball than most Mike.

Meanwhile - these articles from Der Spiegel demonstrate how thick, and tone deaf the Eurocrats are.  This could just as easily be in the "Why Europe Keeps Failing" thread.

http://www.spiegel.de/international/europe/stimulus-is-needed-to-prevent-downturn-after-brexit-a-1099769.html#js-article-comments-box-pager

This is best done in cooperation with the British, with their reputation of pragmatism. Otherwise, the ridiculous decision by a small majority of the Queen's voting subjects could soon mean that a lot of people will lose their jobs again in Germany and in other countries.

http://www.spiegel.de/international/business/commission-has-long-known-of-diesel-emissions-manipulation-a-1103249.html

Since at least 2010, the European Commission has been in possession of concrete evidence that automobile manufacturers were cheating on emissions values of diesel vehicles, according to a number of internal documents that SPIEGEL ONLINE has obtained. The papers show that emissions cheating had been under discussion for years both within the Commission and the EU member state governments. The documents also show that the German government was informed of a 2012 meeting on the issue. The scandal first hit the headlines in 2015 when it became known that Volkswagen had manipulated the emissions of its diesel vehicles.

Evidence based decision making indeed.

 

[Kirkhill]

I have a new hero.

And he is a Labour politician member (maybe)......

http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2016/07/rod-liddles-freedom-dinner-speech-labours-jew-bashing-anti-brexit-mob-tim-farron/?_ga=1.2319097.878721228.1468733576

With a glorious sense of empathy.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zBq1dZGrR3c

 

[Kirkhill]

Sanity

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/women/life/short-fuse-britain-why-is-everyone-so-bloody-angry/

 

[Retired AF Guy]

From todays National Post. Re-produced under the usual caveats of the Copyright Act.

Brexit is already proving to be a huge victory for global free trade

Lawrence Solomon | July 22, 2016 11:41 AM ET

U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry, after talks this week with U.K. Prime Minister Theresa May, declared it was imperative that the U.S. move “as fast as possible” to “maximize the economic opportunities” of Brexit.

Jack Taylor/Getty ImagesU.S. Secretary of State John Kerry, after talks this week with U.K. Prime Minister Theresa May, declared it was imperative that the U.S. move “as fast as possible” to “maximize the economic opportunities” of Brexit.

World trade, Canada’s included, is beating a direct path to the British market.

Canada has long wanted free trade with the United Kingdom, a fellow G7 country that became the world’s fifth-largest economy in 2014 after overtaking France. According to the Centre for Economics Business and Research, a premier U.K. consultancy, the fast-growing U.K. will overtake Germany over the next two decades to become Europe’s largest economy and the world’s fourth largest.

But until Brexit, Canada was shut off from this economic powerhouse, our only path to profitable U.K. trade wending through the EU bureaucracy in Brussels, which controls trade access to every EU country. And as a frustrated Canada knows only too well from almost a decade of interminable, ongoing jockeying in aid of sealing a Canada-EU trade deal, the EU is the world’s largest closed shop. No one gets to trade with the EU on preferential terms without either joining the union or trading away national sovereignty for the privilege.

Now the world, Canada included, is beating a direct path to the United Kingdom. U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry, after talks this week with U.K. Prime Minister Theresa May, declared it was imperative that the U.S. move “as fast as possible” to “maximize the economic opportunities” of Brexit. Kerry’s views echoed those of Australian Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull who, after his own discussions with May, stated: “So as Britain leaves the EU, what we will need to do is negotiate direct arrangements with Britain … we need to get moving on that quickly.”

According to the U.K.’s international trade secretary, Liam Fox, countries are lining up to strike trade deals with the U.K. — Japan, India and China are among those that have informally committed themselves, with some saying they are eager for quick deals. The U.K. has not only become the world’s most eligible free-trade partner; it has also become its most attainable. “We can make Britain a beacon for open trade,” Fox told The Sunday Times. “We have already had a number of countries saying ‘we’d love to do a trade deal with the world’s fifth-biggest economy without having to deal with the other 27 members of the EU.'”

If not for Brexit, and with the possible exception of Canada, none of the many countries eager for U.K. trade would have access to its immense market anytime soon — these potential trading partners have been shut out since 1973, when the U.K. joined the European trading bloc and cut itself off from greater trading opportunities in the rest of the world. Now, less than a month after the Brexit vote, barely a week after a new prime minister has taken the helm, countries large and small are contemplating their access to a British market that had been blocked by tariff walls for almost half a century. Put another way, Brexit has become the biggest impetus to global free trade in more than a generation.

Once the U.K. strikes free-trade deals with the U.S., Canada and several others, it will have gained access to a much larger market than it had in the EU (the U.S. economy alone, by some measures, is larger than the EU market). From the perspective of a Canada or a U.S., the opening up of free trade with the U.K. is no less consequential: The U.K., the U.S., and Canada have a combined GDP far exceeding that of the NAFTA partnership.

The Brexit free-trade bonanza would just be starting, though, because Brexit, doomsaying notwithstanding, is opening eyes in the other EU nations. The IMF — perhaps the most prominent among the doomsayers — has entirely reevaluated its analysis. Brexit will not sink the U.K. into recession after all, it now says; instead the post-Brexit United Kingdom will best Germany and France to be one of the G7s best-performing economies, behind only the U.S. in 2016 and only the U.S. and Canada in 2017. 

In France, the Netherlands, Spain and elsewhere in Europe, the sentiment among large portions of the citizenry to leave the EU is thwarted largely by fear of the economic consequences. Brexit is showing them that the consequences of staying within a decaying EU is fear-worthy, while striking out into a world of free trade is hopeful and worth embracing. Every free-trade-oriented country in the EU that shrugs off the dead weight of the EU bureaucracy from its back and follows Britain’s lead will, like the U.K., provide countries around the world with a new free-trading partner in another free-trading round, making Brexit a defining event in the annals of free trade.

LawrenceSolomon@nextcity.com

Lawrence Solomon is a policy analyst with Probe International. Fourth in a series. For the first in a series, click here.

Article Link

 

[Kirkhill]

Just been having some more "fun with numbers". (From various sources - trust me  [ )

The UK economy generates a GDP of 1870 Billion UKP.

Annually it exports about 300 BUKP of goods and
it imports about 420 BUKP of goods.

Of the exports 133 BUKP goes to Europe and
imports from Europe are 219 BUKP.

On the basis of trade in goods the UK is worth 86 BUKP annually to the EU.

In addition, according to EU rules the UK is supposed to contribute 18 BUKP in membership fees to the EU.  (Farage's 350 MUKP / week)
The UK, thanks to Maggie, gets a discount on its fees of 5 BUKP and only has to pay dues of 13 BUKP.        (250 MUKP)
The EU then spends 4.5 BUKP of that money back in the UK bringing the UK's net contribution down to 8.5 BUKP. (150 MUKP)

The EU sells itself to Britain as a Free Trade opportunity.  But Britain has to pay up front for that privilege.

The cost of accessing the EU market (8.5 BUKP) is equivalent to a 6.4% tariff on all British exports to the EU (8.5/133 = 6.4%).

That is already higher than the average tariffs paid by non-EU members like the US, Canada and Australia. 

In addition the rebate and the reinvestment in the UK are both at the discretion of the EU.  It is not inconceivable that the EU could rescind the rebate and fail to reinvest in Britain should Britain remain in the Union.  That would drive, potentially, the contribution up to 18 BUKP or a tariff equivalent of 13.5%.

So Britain is worth 86 BUKP annually to the EU's manufacturers, providing jobs in Spain, Italy and Germany. 

And it costs Britain 8.5 BUKP for the privilege of buying those goods.

In a world where we are constantly being sold the benefits of Goods and Services Taxes, or Value Added Taxes, administered by individual consumers at point of sale in billions of separate transactions, I suggest that there is little justification for not letting the British exporters manage the cost of selling their goods into the EU by paying whatever GST/VAT/Tariff is necessary to market their product.

The EU would still receive their funding but it would be at the expense of either/or the British exporter and the EU consumer.

A side benefit for the Brits would be that they would not be on the hook for the cost of administering their 18-13-8.5 BUKP contribution to the EU (politicians and bureaucrats).

I am not aware of any equivalent membership fees being due for Canada to be a part of NAFTA.

 

[a_majoor]

Brexit could be the forerunner of further breakups or breakdowns wishing the EU and EU nations themselves, as this from Spain suggests:

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-07-27/latest-political-coup-catalan-parliament-votes-secede-spain

In Latest Political "Coup", Catalan Parliament Votes To Secede From Spain
by Tyler Durden
Jul 27, 2016 1:17 PM

In the aftermath of last month's Brexit vote, there was an outpouring of concern in Europe that the British decision would embolden similar separatist movements across the continent. Earlier Wednesday, this is precisely what happened when Catalan nationalists voted to approve a plan to secede from Spain, defying the nation’s Constitutional Court and challenging acting Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy, who is currently in political limbo as he struggles to form a government.

The decision was approved by 72 regional MPs out of 135. Ten MPs from the CSP group linked to Podemos, Partido Popular and Ciudadanos walked out of the assembly and the Socialists did not vote. A recent poll shows that 48% of the Catalan population currently supports independence compared with 43% against it.

The vote, symbolic as it may be, was one of defiance toward Madrid as Spain's Constitutional Court had in recent days prohibited the regional parliament in Barcelona from voting on it. As Ansa reports, the resolution was presented by the pro-secessionist groups Junts Pel Si and CUP. The anti-secessionist parties - PP, Ciudadanos and PSC - have spoken out against the ''illegality'' of the decision. PP parliamentary chief Xavier Garcia Albiol has said that the act is tantamount to a ''coup'' against the government in Madrid and warned that there will be a price to pay for it. The head of the Socialist party, Pedro Sanchez, said there can be no democracy without common rules, while Albert Rivera, the Catalan-born leader of liberals Ciudadanos, described it as a attack on Spanish democracy. They both have rejected supporting Rajoy’s candidacy to become premier again.

Catalan regional president and pro-secessionist Carles Puidgemont instead says that the position taken by the regional MPs is ''legitimate'' and has in recent months confirmed that the goal is to achieve an independent ''Catalan Republic'' by the end of 2017.

Meanwhile, Spain’s caretaker administration - recall that Spain has been unable to form a government after two consecutive elections - said it has called on the state’s attorney to present a challenge before the Constitutional Court dismissing the plan, which lists the steps that would be followed to create independence, including drafting a Catalan constitution.

The latest escalation in the multiyear separatist movement signals renewed impetus from Catalans to break away from Spain. It coincides with a seven-month political deadlock sparked by two inconclusive elections that left the nation without a government. While Rajoy increased his party’s seats in parliament in the second vote, he’s failed to agree on governing terms with other parties, fueling prospects for a third election. Facing a parliamentary defeat, Rajoy has said he won’t undergo a vote of confidence in the 350-seat chamber that is needed to become PM unless he has received enough pledged support from rivals to guarantee his victory.

And taking advantage of the political chaos in Spain, and the lack of an actual, elected government, Catalonia just became the second European state in the span of a month to demand secession. It may not be successful this time, but as Brexit showed, sooner or later the will of the majority will prevail.

 

[Kirkhill]

http://www.spiegel.de/international/europe/brexit-the-british-always-want-special-treatment-a-1105751.html

Financial Expert on Brexit: 'The British Always Want Special Treatment'

Interview Conducted By Alexander Jung


What direction will Britain take as it prepares for Brexit? British financial industry expert David Marsh says he believes Britain's withdrawal from the EU will do less damage to Brits than to the rest of Europe.


SPIEGEL: Mr. Marsh, did you vote to leave the EU?


Marsh: No, I voted to stay. I did though do something unusual for me: I placed a £200 (237 euros) bet on "leave" with bookmaker Ladbrokes, just in case, to have a small consolation prize.

SPIEGEL: How much did you win?

Marsh: £600 -- it relieved my pain a little.

SPIEGEL: It has now been five weeks since the referendum, and many expected an economic crash. So far, however, this has not happened. Were the concerns exaggerated?

Marsh: I think so. We have a period of uncertainty and companies may invest less. But in 20 years it is unlikely we will say that this referendum has led to a disastrous outcome. It may even offer opportunities.

SPIEGEL: What do you mean?

Marsh: The pound has fallen. This weakness will help our exports, British products will be cheaper abroad. And this attracts foreign investors, as seen with Japan's Softbank taking over high-tech ARM for €29 billion euros.

SPIEGEL: Such a coup is hardly what Leavers wished for -- to have foreigners take control of the economy?

Marsh: Oscar Wilde once wrote that people know the price of everything and the value of nothing. It's nothing special for the British if everything is for sale. We have fewer sensitivities in this regard than the Germans.

SPIEGEL: But will the British be so relaxed about their flagship industry -- financial services? Some here fear a veritable exodus.

Marsh: There are certainly some sectors that are particularly affected, for example the settlement of euro transactions. But computers can carry out a lot of this already. It could also lead to the relocation of some foreign exchange trading or investment banking, but not in a large way. Over 700,000 people work in the London financial sector, at the most 10 percent will be influenced by the Brexit vote.

SPIEGEL: But the banks may lose the EU passport necessary for distributing their products in Europe.

Marsh: The big houses already have bases in Frankfurt, Dublin or Paris. You can use these centers, which does not require much effort.

SPIEGEL: Many European financial centers are trying to attract business away from London. The Hesse economic minister will go there in August and lobby for Frankfurt.

Marsh: The Parisians were already here. Competition here is good for business. There it is not just one, but 10 rivals -- that may help London. The City can operate the classic British game, the balance of power, playing off rivals against each other.

SPIEGEL: Frankfurt's hopes are premature?

Marsh: Frankfurt will not transform itself overnight into a major international financial center. Frankfurt and London could complement each other. Frankfurt could focus on financing EU industry, and London could take the global operations.

SPIEGEL: This week, shareholders have agreed to the Frankfurt-London stock exchange merger. Is it realistic to have the headquarters in the UK?

Marsh: It wouldn't be very clever to have the legal seat of the company in London. Maybe they could find another place, perhaps Amsterdam or Dublin.

SPIEGEL: The European Banking Authority will likely have to pull out of London.

Marsh: That would be a setback for the City. But we expect there'll be another two and a half years before Britain leaves the EU. A lot can happen. European politicians' ability to find compromises never ceases to amaze.

SPIEGEL: The UK is looking for a post-EU model. How would this look?

Marsh: It is certainly not like the Swiss model, nor Albanian, nor Greenlandic. I hope this doesn't sound nationalistic -- it should be a British way. There is a tendency in Germany to think that the British always want special treatment -- and that is true: We want special treatment.

SPIEGEL: And what does this consist of?

Marsh: We need to manage a compromise between our expectations and the EU's: We will still pay into the EU budget, but significantly less. We will control immigration more rigorously. And we want to maintain access to the EU internal market.

SPIEGEL: Do you really think Europe will allow this? If so, then EU critics in the Netherlands or Austria will wish to emulate this British model and leave the EU.

Marsh: That's right; the EU can't be too generous toward Britain. On the other hand, we have time on our side. Britain will probably not have a general election until 2020, while the German, Dutch and French will all go to the polls next year. Prime Minister Theresa May has time to develop Britain's European position. She can build on the UK's special status outside the euro area, where we are one of the largest trading partners. We will find a form of British exceptionalism. Frank Sinatra's "I Did It My Way" may become for the UK, "We did it May way."

SPIEGEL: What might this "May way" look like? Will the UK turn itself into a low-tax paradise with minimum regulation?

Marsh: We will certainly not become a European version of the Cayman Islands -- we cannot afford that. Banking regulation should be at least as strict as in the EU. The financial crisis has taught us that less regulation leads to poorer results.

SPIEGEL: There are a lot of similarities between the prime minister and Chancellor Angela Merkel, this was obvious when May visited Merkel on July 20 in Berlin: They are of a similar age, similar origin and they are similarly pragmatic. Will that help British negotiations?

Marsh: There is good chemistry between the two. You can talk of "Angela May and Theresa Merkel" as Europe's new tandem. Yet the chancellor faces the tougher task. Her room for maneuver is narrowing, the more she faces Europe's economic problems: the debt issues in Greece, the banking crisis in Italy, the monetary policy of the European Central Bank.


SPIEGEL: What should she do?


Marsh: She is in a dilemma. Merkel's supporters may desert her if she's too conciliatory. But then the Germans cannot always say "no" when it comes to aid for countries in crisis or softening the Maastricht criteria (on deficit spending). They don't have the strength.

SPIEGEL: Who will suffer most from Brexit: the UK or the rest of Europe?

Marsh: The British face a short, sharp shock that will subside relatively quickly. In Continental Europe, the process will last longer and be more painful. Although I voted against leaving the EU, I see Britain's s future more optimistically than that of the rest of Europe. Yet if Germany and the UK formed an alliance, both would have it easier.

About David Marsh

Andrea Artz / DER SPIEGEL
David Marsh, 64, is a leading expert on the European financial industry. He is the co-founder and managing director of the Official Monetary and Financial Institutions Forum, a London think tank for financial and economic issues. He previously worked for various financial institutions and as a journalist. Between 1978 and 1995, he worked for the Financial Times in Germany, France and England.

A neat summary of Brexit to date -

And of course the Brits want special treatment.  They're British.  [

 

[a_majoor]

Defying expectations; UK unemployment falls after the Brexit:

http://order-order.com/2016/08/17/unemployment-falls-brexit/

guardian
Enjoy these two entries from the Guardian politics liveblog this morning:

8:09am: UK jobless claims expected to rise following Brexit vote – Economists polled by Reuters are expecting a 9,500 jump in claims

9:34am: A big surprise in the labour market data: the number of people claiming unemployment benefits fell by 8,600 in July, a month after the Brexit vote. No sign yet then that the Brexit vote is hurting the jobs market…

Economists wrong about the impact of Brexit, shocker. “We’ve heard enough from experts…”

 

[Kirkhill]

Sir Humphrey's heir: "Brexit is not inevitable and Britain could remain in the EU, says Lord O'Donnell"

.. no "rush" ...

...

Before his peerage, Sir Gus O'Donnell, as he was then known, was in charge of the Civil Service between 2005 and 2011 under three prime ministers - Tony Blair, Gordon Brown and David Cameron.

The crossbench peer said: "Lots of people will say, 'We've had the referendum, we've decided to go out, so that's it, it's all over'.

"But it very much depends what happens to public opinion and whether the EU changes before then.

"It might be that the broader, more loosely aligned group, is something that the UK is happy being a member of."

... complicated and take "a very long time"...

..... "a huge administrative and legislative change" ....

....

Lord O'Donnell also warned against rushing to trigger Article 50, which starts a two-year countdown to Brexit.

"The key for Government is to have a strategic plan to say 'what kind of UK do we want? What is our place in the world? What are we trying to achieve in these negotiations'?"he told BBC Radio 4's Today programme.

"Once you have got those strategic decisions sorted out, then you can go about thinking about 'so when should we implement Article 50?' I wouldn't be in a rush."....

....
He added that elections in France and Germany next year meant "it is not even clear which leaders our Prime Minister will be negotiating with, so I don't think there's any great rush to do it".....

... it was going to be a "tough ask" for the civil service to take the UK out of the EU because Britain was "very short" of trade negotiators.

..."It is a big task, an enormous task that will take up a lot of the time both of the Government and Parliament over the rest of this Parliament."

The counter-point: "Gus O'Donnell has made a mistake. Even the suspicion that civil servants will try to block Brexit is dangerous"

And in other news, with disastrous timing, Sir Anthony Jay has just died.

 

[daftandbarmy]

Sir Humphrey's heir: "Brexit is not inevitable and Britain could remain in the EU, says Lord O'Donnell"

The counter-point: "Gus O'Donnell has made a mistake. Even the suspicion that civil servants will try to block Brexit is dangerous"

And in other news, with disastrous timing, Sir Anthony Jay has just died.

Why bother staying in the EU? The UK has a lot more going for it than it realizes...

http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/brexit-what-next-reasons-to-be-positive-eu-referendum-jeremy-corbyn-a7104016.html

 

[Old Sweat]

Why bother staying in the EU? The UK has a lot more going for it than it realizes...

http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/brexit-what-next-reasons-to-be-positive-eu-referendum-jeremy-corbyn-a7104016.html

After all, who else could have invented a currency system based on 20s and 12s, and then tossed in guineas for the upper classes? And for the mechanically-minded, the British automotive industry aimed at frustrating the home mechanic!

My RCAC friends are invited to discuss Centurion maintenance. 

 

[Kirkhill]

After all, who else could have invented a currency system based on 20s and 12s, and then tossed in guineas for the upper classes? And for the mechanically-minded, the British automotive industry aimed at frustrating the home mechanic!

My RCAC friends are invited to discuss Centurion maintenance.

2 farthings, one ha'penny
2 ha'pennies, one penny
Tuppenny bit
Thruppenny bit
Sixpenny bit
12 pennies, one shilling
2 shillings, one florin
2 shillings and sixpence, half a crown
5 shillings, one crown
20 shillings, one pound
21 shillings, one guinea (which I never actually saw, nor did I see a sovereign)

There - what's so hard about that?  Had it all figured by the time I was six.  How else was I going to buy my Kit Kat on the way to school? 
Also worked wonders when I came to working in bases other than 10 - silly decimal system.

Edit: in any event - according to Wiki - we can blame the Dutch.

"Low Countries

In the principalities covering present Netherlands, Belgium and Luxemburg, the cognate term schelling was used as an equivalent 'arithmetic' currency, a 'solidus' representing 12 'denarii' or 1/20 'pound', while actual coins were rarely physical multiples of it, but still expressed in these terms."

We also got the Florin from Florence.

International monetary exchange.

 

[daftandbarmy]

After all, who else could have invented a currency system based on 20s and 12s, and then tossed in guineas for the upper classes? And for the mechanically-minded, the British automotive industry aimed at frustrating the home mechanic!

My RCAC friends are invited to discuss Centurion maintenance.

I'm guessing the global system of trade they established and dominated for centuries will stand them in good stead, if reinvigorated in a new form freed from the requirement to kow tow to an ever increasingly cloistered and anti-competitive EU.