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Collapse of the Assad Regime

Czech_pivo said:
What Syria, Afghanistan, Ukraine, Yugoslavia, the old Belgian Congo, Lebanon, Iraq, Turkey, old Austro-Hungarian Empire, etc, etc, etc, all tell us, is that outside of a mere handful of places around the world, is that countries that have a religious minorities (within Islam or a mix of Islam/Christianity/Hinduism/Jewish) or ethnic/linguistic minorities simply don't work.
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Look at Yugoslavia - Serb Orthodox, Croatian RC and BH Islam. Not a mix conducive to good relations.
 
OldSolduer said:
Look at Yugoslavia - Serb Orthodox, Croatian RC and BH Islam. Not a mix conducive to good relations.
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And Syria? Druze, Alawite, Shia, Sunni, Orthodox (Greek, Armenian), Catholics (Armenian, Greek), RC, Baha'is, Jews, Chaldeans, Maronites, etc, etc.

It made Yugoslavia look like amateurs.

The reality of what happened recently in both Iraq and Syria is that a form of ethnic/religious cleansing was 'allowed' to occur. The vast majority of Christians that resided in Iraq prior to 2001 have already fled the country, further weakening the position of those remaining behind. Syria will be the same for certain. Lebanon has been bleeding Christian emigrees since the mid 1970s. This process will continue around the Middle East, it will continue in places like India (higher percentage of Indian immigrants to the west tend to be Christians or Sikhs). How many Jews left the old Soviet Union when the opportunity presented itself? Vast majority were economic immigrants initially but the 'want' to go to a place where they 'belonged' or were a part of the majority played a significant part.
 
Britain being an island with a relatively small and homogeneous population learned to manage differences. Eventually. For a while.

We learned to accommodate diiferent ideas, where we could. Some ideas we just all agreed were wrong.

And we learned to laugh at each other. Triggering was not a thing.

Tcheuchters and sassenachs, loonies and keelies, geordies and scousers, taffs and micks and jocks, cockneys and Farmer Giles.

We even learned to accommodate Tallies and Pakis.

I'll tell you now that it is not the colour of the skin that tells me that I am speaking to a Brit. It is the dialect that they speak to me.

A West Indian scouse is still a scouse.
 
Czech_pivo said:
And Syria? Druze, Alawite, Shia, Sunni, Orthodox (Greek, Armenian), Catholics (Armenian, Greek), RC, Baha'is, Jews, Chaldeans, Maronites, etc, etc.

It made Yugoslavia look like amateurs.

The reality of what happened recently in both Iraq and Syria is that a form of ethnic/religious cleansing was 'allowed' to occur. The vast majority of Christians that resided in Iraq prior to 2001 have already fled the country, further weakening the position of those remaining behind. Syria will be the same for certain. Lebanon has been bleeding Christian emigrees since the mid 1970s. This process will continue around the Middle East, it will continue in places like India (higher percentage of Indian immigrants to the west tend to be Christians or Sikhs). How many Jews left the old Soviet Union when the opportunity presented itself? Vast majority were economic immigrants initially but the 'want' to go to a place where they 'belonged' or were a part of the majority played a significant part.
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Be good if a bunch of the Syrian Christians and Alwaites move into Lebanon.
 
Apparently Syrian Druze are interested in joining Israel. Also some video that Rebels have captured the Russian Air Base Apparently a dispute about who gets to loot the duty free store.


Here is the airbase

 
Last edited:
Colin Parkinson said:
Apparently Syrian Druze are interested in joining Israel. Also some video that Rebels have captured the Russian Air Base Apparently a dispute about who gets to loot the duty free store.


Here is the airbase

Click to expand...
The Duty Free store? I’m in!!!!
 
Race, ethnicity and religion are always important factors in the politics of a given country. Modern Syria was formed out of a province of the Ottoman empire with Lebanon carved out in turn by the French as its own country.

Arab Nationalism was a force in the Arab world in the last century which tried to transcend religion and was focused on anti-colonialism. The Baath parties, for instance, focused on Arab nationalism, but religion was still there. In Syria we had a Baath party centred on a ruling family drawn from the small Alawite minority while in neighbouring Iraq there was a Baath party led by that country's Sunni minority. Assad's Syria had complicated regional relations. They supported Iran in the Iran-Iraq War, but they supported a Christian government in Lebanon at the start of the Lebanese Civil War against the PLO. Opposition to Israel, though, was constant and the occupation of the Golan Heights prevented peace accords that had been struck between Israel and Egypt and Jordan.

Assad's regime kept a tight grip on domestic politics (including the massacre of something like 40,000 Sunnis at Hama in 1982) up until the Arab Spring of 2011. Once the Sunnis were mobilized the Assad regime had to rely on Russian and Iranian support (including Hezbollah fighters from Lebanon).

Syrian demographics are estimated as follows:

Ethnicity: Arabs are 85% of the population, Kurds 10% of the population with various other groups filling out the remainder. Some of those were displaced into Syria during the Ottoman times.

Religion: Sunni Muslims are estimated to be 75% of the population, with Shia/Alawites comprising something like 12% of the population, Christians close to 10% and the Druze around 3%.

All this to say, the demographic cards were heavily stacked against the Assad regime once the Sunni majority was mobilized. The Kurds are Sunni, but are seeking to have control over their own destiny. How this plays out in the coming months may depend on how much the US continues to support the Kurdish forces in the east of Syria (Syrian Democratic Forces - SDF). Turkey is certainly opposed to the SDF, so while the Assad regime has fallen the civil war is likely to continue.

All that to say, the situation is different than faced by the Sykes-Picot team when they carved up the Ottoman Empire. Unlike 1916-18, the inhabitants have agency and are fighting for their future.
 
TangoTwoBravo said:
Race, ethnicity and religion are always important factors in the politics of a given country. Modern Syria was formed out of a province of the Ottoman empire with Lebanon carved out in turn by the French as its own country.

Arab Nationalism was a force in the Arab world in the last century which tried to transcend religion and was focused on anti-colonialism. The Baath parties, for instance, focused on Arab nationalism, but religion was still there. In Syria we had a Baath party centred on a ruling family drawn from the small Alawite minority while in neighbouring Iraq there was a Baath party led by that country's Sunni minority. Assad's Syria had complicated regional relations. They supported Iran in the Iran-Iraq War, but they supported a Christian government in Lebanon at the start of the Lebanese Civil War against the PLO. Opposition to Israel, though, was constant and the occupation of the Golan Heights prevented peace accords that had been struck between Israel and Egypt and Jordan.

Assad's regime kept a tight grip on domestic politics (including the massacre of something like 40,000 Sunnis at Hama in 1982) up until the Arab Spring of 2011. Once the Sunnis were mobilized the Assad regime had to rely on Russian and Iranian support (including Hezbollah fighters from Lebanon).

Syrian demographics are estimated as follows:

Ethnicity: Arabs are 85% of the population, Kurds 10% of the population with various other groups filling out the remainder. Some of those were displaced into Syria during the Ottoman times.

Religion: Sunni Muslims are estimated to be 75% of the population, with Shia/Alawites comprising something like 12% of the population, Christians close to 10% and the Druze around 3%.

All this to say, the demographic cards were heavily stacked against the Assad regime once the Sunni majority was mobilized. The Kurds are Sunni, but are seeking to have control over their own destiny. How this plays out in the coming months may depend on how much the US continues to support the Kurdish forces in the east of Syria (Syrian Democratic Forces - SDF). Turkey is certainly opposed to the SDF, so while the Assad regime has fallen the civil war is likely to continue.

All that to say, the situation is different than faced by the Sykes-Picot team when they carved up the Ottoman Empire. Unlike 1916-18, the inhabitants have agency and are fighting for their future.
Click to expand...
Excellent post. I learned a lot from reading that - you definitely know more about the history of that country & the current dynamics than most.

In regards to the Kurds, I don't think the US will go out of their way to establish a formal Kurdish state. The west has abandoned the Kurds time & time again, I don't think this time will be any different...

Turkey is a crucial ally in that region (albeit a super sketchy one)

If Turkey is opposed to the SDF, they'll play extremely dirty to help persuade western governments from supporting the Kurds to the point of finally establishing their own state.

"Hey Europe, want another million refugees by this time next week? Oh you don't? Okay, well, better stop assisting the Kurds to establish their own country then...yeah?"

I imagine the general synopsis of that convo might be along the lines of the above...
 
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