Collapse of the Assad Regime

[Colin Parkinson]

Excellent post. I learned a lot from reading that - you definitely know more about the history of that country & the current dynamics than most.

In regards to the Kurds, I don't think the US will go out of their way to establish a formal Kurdish state. The west has abandoned the Kurds time & time again, I don't think this time will be any different...

Turkey is a crucial ally in that region (albeit a super sketchy one)

If Turkey is opposed to the SDF, they'll play extremely dirty to help persuade western governments from supporting the Kurds to the point of finally establishing their own state.

"Hey Europe, want another million refugees by this time next week? Oh you don't? Okay, well, better stop assisting the Kurds to establish their own country then...yeah?"

I imagine the general synopsis of that convo might be along the lines of the above...

I love telling Palestinian supporters that the Arabs, Turks and Persians can show Israel how to grant independence by giving the Kurds and Baloch's their own independent States. Most don't even know what I am talking about, the others try to deflect.

 

[Humphrey Bogart]

The secret talks between Syria’s new leaders and the Kremlin

They are negotiating with Russia about its military presence

www.economist.com

Regarding the Russian presence in Syria....

The likely outcome is that Russia will more than likely keep it's Naval Base in Tartus and the Khmeimim Airbase. It has been in the process of pulling its forces elsewhere in the Country back to these bases over the past couple of weeks:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1866885372895969468

https://twitter.com/x/status/1867528515861594495

https://twitter.com/x/status/1867436576009334922

The Russian interest in Syria is purely a practical one as it always was, even when Assad was in power. They want their bases and it appears in exchange, they will guarantee economic access to HTS, and provide wheat, capital and technical expertise.

 

[lenaitch]

"He didn't plan to flee to Russia"

https://www.cnn.com/2024/12/16/middleeast/syria-bashar-assad-statement-intl/index.html

Maybe he's like those stories you hear about people wanting to go the Sydney Australia and end up in Sydney NS, or Saint John vs St. John's.

 

[Rifleman62]

Would think that these troops do not want to go to Russia Ukraine

 

[rmc_wannabe]

Would think that these troops do not want to go to Russia Ukraine

One of my father's cousins in Brooklyn had a similar experience getting drafted in the 1960s. He was prepared to go to Vietnam, but somehow was assigned to Europe instead.

 

[Czech_pivo]

Question:

IF the Russians are able to load their equipment onto Russian civilian freighters at Tartus, not Russian Naval Landing Ships, would they be allowed by the Turks to use the Straits into the Black Sea to attempt to bring this equipment somewhere like Novorossiysk or Rostov on Don and unload them there? If the answer is a 'no' and they are not able to unload them in Benghazi, then they will have to sail all the equipment either back to the Baltic at Kaliningrad or St Pete's or even farther north, in winter time, to possibly Murmansk.

 

[KevinB]

Question:

IF the Russians are able to load their equipment onto Russian civilian freighters at Tartus, not Russian Naval Landing Ships, would they be allowed by the Turks to use the Straits into the Black Sea to attempt to bring this equipment somewhere like Novorossiysk or Rostov on Don and unload them there? If the answer is a 'no' and they are not able to unload them in Benghazi, then they will have to sail all the equipment either back to the Baltic at Kaliningrad or St Pete's or even farther north, in winter time, to possibly Murmansk.

Israel made a crater out of a lot of Russian stuff in the last two days.

Israel isn’t going to overtly attack Russia’s holdings in Syria (personnel or equipment) if it really doesn’t have to.

But isn’t going to let anything fall into the hands of potential adversaries in the region. If that means killing some Russians, well that is simply the cost of living in the ME…

 

[Czech_pivo]

Israel made a crater out of a lot of Russian stuff in the last two days.

Israel isn’t going to overtly attack Russia’s holdings in Syria (personnel or equipment) if it really doesn’t have to.

But isn’t going to let anything fall into the hands of potential adversaries in the region. If that means killing some Russians, well that is simply the cost of living in the ME…

I've read similar reports but based on the size of the convoy's that I've seen, I don't think the Israeli's would be able to destroy anything close to 50% or more of that equipment. I can't see the Russians sitting back and allowing that to occur.

 

[Colin Parkinson]

Question:

IF the Russians are able to load their equipment onto Russian civilian freighters at Tartus, not Russian Naval Landing Ships, would they be allowed by the Turks to use the Straits into the Black Sea to attempt to bring this equipment somewhere like Novorossiysk or Rostov on Don and unload them there? If the answer is a 'no' and they are not able to unload them in Benghazi, then they will have to sail all the equipment either back to the Baltic at Kaliningrad or St Pete's or even farther north, in winter time, to possibly Murmansk.

Right now some Russian landing ships and freighters are headed to Tatlus from the Baltic. My guess is they take the long way around to avoid getting taken out as soon as they get into the Black Sea, even if Turkey will let them, which I don't believe they will.

 

[Czech_pivo]

Right now some Russian landing ships and freighters are headed to Tatlus from the Baltic. My guess is they take the long way around to avoid getting taken out as soon as they get into the Black Sea, even if Turkey will let them, which I don't believe they will.

Yes, I've read that a few naval landing ships left the Russian north and are on their way somewhere, presumably to Tartus.

 

[rmc_wannabe]

Right now some Russian landing ships and freighters are headed to Tatlus from the Baltic. My guess is they take the long way around to avoid getting taken out as soon as they get into the Black Sea, even if Turkey will let them, which I don't believe they will.

They said they will not.

Turkey reinforced their adherence to the Montreaux Convention in 2022, when Russia thought about reallocating some of it's Mediterranean Squadron to bulk up the Black Sea Fleet. Turkey said "nyet" and the Russians have had to go the long way round to the Baltic.

 

[daftandbarmy]

They said they will not.

Turkey reinforced their adherence to the Montreaux Convention in 2022, when Russia thought about reallocating some of it's Mediterranean Squadron to bulk up the Black Sea Fleet. Turkey said "nyet" and the Russians have had to go the long way round to the Baltic.

Which is why it's awesome that Sweden and Finland are now in NATO.

Previously, Russian fleets in the Baltic and Murmansk could transit neutral waters for much of their journeys to the Atlantic.

I'm assuming that the Naval Int Geeks are jubilant

 

[Staff Weenie]

Would be a real shame if something happened to those ships. Just saying...sometimes ships have fires, or blow up unexpectedly...

 

[OldSolduer]

Would be a real shame if something happened to those ships. Just saying...sometimes ships have fires, or blow up unexpectedly...

Blow up real good

 

[dimsum]

Would be a real shame if something happened to those ships. Just saying...sometimes ships have fires, or blow up unexpectedly...

“Hey, how come the Med Sea fleet’s ships just happen to break their backs around the same time?!”

 

[rmc_wannabe]

“Hey, how come the Med Sea fleet’s ships just happen to break their backs around the same time?!”

"Aurora Borealis?"

 

[Good2Golf]

"He didn't plan to flee to Russia"

https://www.cnn.com/2024/12/16/middleeast/syria-bashar-assad-statement-intl/index.html

Maybe he's like those stories you hear about people wanting to go the Sydney Australia and end up in Sydney NS, or Saint John vs St. John's.

Maybe he intended to see where McDonalds got the potatoes for its world famous fries?

Moscow · Moscow, Idaho

maps.app.goo.gl

 

[dapaterson]

"Aurora Borealis?"

 

[PrairieFella]

https://www.wsj.com/world/middle-east/u-s-fears-military-buildup-by-turkey-signals-preparations-for-incursion-into-syria-1c2e88e9

Yuh oh

 

[Colin Parkinson]

Israeli news media reporting on it's soldiers occupying Syria.