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Election 2011

E.R. Campbell said:
Good point OGBD but how about a Conservative-Liberal coalition with similar sharing offers, maybe even offer the Liberals Foreign Affairs?

The Conservatives do not want to give the Liberals any opportunity to shine, nor credence as a potential government.  A Tory/Dipper coalition would reinforce the message that there are only two "real" political parties in Canada, one left, one right, and further marginalize the Liberals.

Harper is also playing a long game here; a strong NDP on the left with a strong Conservative party in the centre-right squeezes out the Liberals.
 
dapaterson said:
...
Harper is also playing a long game here; a strong NDP on the left with a strong Conservative party in the centre-right squeezes out the Liberals.


I agree with that. But I suspect Harper is willing to make concessions - including cabinet appointments - to individual Liberals who are willing to jump ship and join his government.
 
I agree with Edward's assumption re plums for Liberals willing to jump ship. Now maybe there aren't enough cabinet jobs to attract enough Grits to reach a majority, but there may be enough "blue" Liberals who could not stomach the prospect of a Layton-led coalition. They might even be willing to sit as "Independent Liberals."
 
Nik on the Numbers

The national ballot remains relatively stable with a five point lead for the Conservatives over the NDP at this point in the campaign. NDP numbers continue to trend up in Ontario and also showed an increase in support in British Columbia.

Conservative support nationally stands at 36.4% followed by the NDP at 31.2%, the Liberals at 22.0%, the BQ at 5.7% and the Greens at 4.0%.

A review of the regional sub samples suggests that Atlantic Canada remains a statistical tie factoring the margin of error of the research.

Support for the New Democrats remains steady at 41.4% in Quebec with the BQ at 23.6%, the Liberals at 16.1%, the Conservatives at 15.8% and the Greens at 1.9%.

Conservative support is trending down in Ontario although still in the lead. In Ontario, the Tories are at 36.3%, followed by the Liberals at 29.8%, the NDP at 28.5% and the Green Party at 5.1%.

Tory support has increased in the Prairies to 60.0%, while the NDP are in second at 22.8%, the Liberals are at 13.3% and the Greens are at 3.9%.

Although the Tories maintain their support in British Columbia at 43.0%, the NDP registered a noticeable increase in support to 35.2%, followed by the Liberals at 18.2% and the Greens at 3.7%.

Party platform remains the top vote driver at 48.7%.

Visit the Nanos website at 4pm daily to get the latest nightly tracking update on the top national issue of concern and the Nanos Leadership Index comprised of daily trust, vision and competence scores of the leaders.

The detailed tables and methodology are posted on our website where you can also register to receive automatic polling updates.

Retrouvez les tableaux détaillés ainsi que les notes méthodologiques sur notre site web en français où vous pouvez également vous inscrire afin de recevoir des mises à jours regulières sur nos sondages.


Methodology
A national random telephone survey is conducted nightly by Nanos Research throughout the campaign. Each evening a new group of 400 eligible voters are interviewed. The daily tracking figures are based on a three-day rolling sample comprised of 1,200 interviews. To update the tracking a new day of interviewing is added and the oldest day dropped. The margin of error for a survey of 1,200 respondents is ±2.8%, 19 times out of 20.


  National Ballot Question: For those parties you would consider voting for federally, could you please rank your top two current local preferences? (Committed voters only - First Preference)

The numbers in parentheses denote the change from the three day rolling average of the Nanos Nightly Tracking ending on April 27th (n=1,200; committed voters only n=1012). *Undecided represents respondents who are not committed voters (n=1,200).

Canada (n=1021 committed voters)
Conservative 36.4% (-0.2)
NDP 31.2% (+0.8 )
Liberal 22.0% (+0.1)
Bloc Quebecois 5.7% (-0.3)
Green 4.0% (-0.1)

*Undecided 15.0% (-0.8 )    Probably pretty important

Vote Driver Question: Which of the following factors are most important to you today in influencing your vote [Rotate]? (n=1,200)

The numbers in parentheses denote the change from the three day rolling average of the Nanos Nightly Tracking ending on April 27th (n=1,200).

Party Policies 48.7% (-0.3 )
Party Leader 25.2% (-0.8 )
Local Candidate 14.9% (+1.9 )
Traditionally Vote for Party 7.2% (-0.5 )
Unsure 3.9% (-0.5 )




 
I personally don't see much likelyhood of a formal coalition involving the Conservatives and any other party.  Inviting the Liberals in would be too dangerous...giving your fallling enemy a hand and giving them the opportunity to shift back toward the right and compete with you for the largest chunk of votes in the political centre of the spectrum.

While working with the NDP might have the advantage of helping to kick the Liberals while they're down, it would certainly make the Conservatives look soft on their core ideals to their core Centre-Right supporters.  It would also give Jack Layton and the NDP the benefit of a responsible governing record to point toward in future elections.  Hard to say how horrible they'd be forming a future government when they've actually been part of your own government!

I definitely agree that the major push would be made to encourage the right wing of the Liberal party to defect to the Conservatives or at the very least tacitly keep the minority Conservative government in power for two years prior to a potential new election.
 
Interesting article in the Globe, at http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/will-harper-regret-strategy-of-running-not-to-lose/article2003272/ , which asserts that Harper's campaign was intended to avoid losing - but was not geared to be a winning campaign.

 
NinerSix said:
Did he run a conservative campaign? *GASP*

I see what you did there!!

But in all seriousness, I do believe the best thing the tories could do is extend a hand to liberals willing to jump ship not once but twice. First right after the elections and again when summer recess ends and that Iggy has been replaced (hopefully). By then I believe the party's identity crisis will have gone deeper motivating more individuals to jump on both sides of the boat.

One thing is certain, both the tories and the dippers will benefit from a liberal collapse.
 
The TorStar is reporting that the campaign mgr for the Kenora, ON NDP candidate is also running in Toronto. She also does not campaign for herself as she is too busy in Kenora. This is the party that was bragging re the number of female running.

http://fullcomment.nationalpost.com/2011/04/29/kelly-mcparland-ndp-readies-for-experiment-in-government/#more-36743

Scrutiny something new for the NDP

Scott Stinson - Apr 29, 2011

All eyes will be on Jack as we head towards election day.

Jacob Larkin, the NDP candidate for Labrador, did not begin campaigning in earnest until this week. As the school principal explained in an interview with local CBC Radio, “having a full-time job brings its own responsibilities, which you can’t just drop and go out on the campaign trail. Things have to be seen through.”

Asked why he decided to carry the party banner — or, at least, carry it for the last week of the campaign — Mr. Larkin said, “I believe in social and fiscal responsibility. I think the NDP does as well.”

So, he’s batting .500 there. Could be worse.

Mr. Larkin’s late entry into the business of campaigning and his somewhat uncertain grasp of party ideals are similar to stories emerging about many of the NDP’s candidates. There’s a standard-bearer in Quebec who went on a Las Vegas vacation for a week because she didn’t want to lose her deposit. She also reportedly spoke French so poorly that a local radio station had to scotch an interview rather than air the exchange. Another candidate went to the Caribbean and one travelled to France. There’s a Toronto candidate who has not campaigned at all, can’t be reached, and, judging by a Toronto Star report, quite possibly is an apparition. There are all kinds of students who, presumably, did not have the pesky constraints of full-time work that weighed down Mr. Larkin.

None of these things are unusual — third-place parties usually have a fair bit of cannon fodder — but it is unusual for anyone to be asking about them. And that’s what’s happening to the NDP. People are asking about them, and about the party and its platform, far more than they were last month, or even early last week.

It’s what naturally happens when an also-ran finds itself suddenly very much in the running. The key question for the NDP is: Can it manage four days of impromptu scrutiny?

Scott Matthews, a political science professor with Queen’s University, has studied the effects of media coverage on Canadian elections.

“A surge for a party creates a positive tone,” he said in an interview. “But as a surge becomes a lead, or even close to a lead, there’s evidence that the tone becomes negative.

“I think it’s very obviously happening right now with the NDP, and they’re not even leading.”

On Thursday alone, Liberal leader Michael Ignatieff was calling on the public — and the media — to put the NDP “under the microscope.” (He even said it was “darn necessary,” cleaning up the potty mouth a little from a day earlier when he said the Conservatives could “go to hell.”)

Conservative leader Stephen Harper, meanwhile, is now decrying not the prospect of a Liberal-led “coalition of losers,” but one guided instead by the NDP. It would be, he said Thursday, “a ramshackle coalition … that will not last but will do a lot of destruction.” He noted that the party’s view on international trade, for example, has “not changed since the Cold War.”

Jack Layton himself is also now facing a different sort of question about his own policies from reporters travelling with him. He was asked on Thursday about how his platform, which calls for a price on carbon, would affect gasoline prices. One analysis says the NDP plan would add 10¢ a litre at the pumps. Mr. Layton insisted that an ombudsman would be able to keep oil companies from raising prices for consumers, but he disagreed that he was proposing to regulate gasoline prices. Reporters described the exchange, which included questions about the AWOL candidates, as “testy” and “heated,” which has been rare for the NDP leader thus far. And testy exchanges lead to stories about how a leader is “on the defensive” or “responding to critics.” Eventually they can become “embattled.” (In the case of Mr. Ignatieff, a report on Thursday referred to him as “beleaguered.”)

“Tone matters,” explains Prof. Matthews. “People do respond to the media. Not everyone, of course, not the partisans and not the people who aren’t paying any attention, but there are people who take their cues from the coverage.”

Meanwhile, a headline on the CBC website late Thursday afternoon: “Layton defends against ‘stop-gap’ candidates.”

Welcome to front-runner — or close to it — status.




NDP readies for experiment in government

Kelly McParland - Apr 29, 2011

Here’s the prospect we’re looking at if the NDP surge survives the weekend (which would require that Canadians continue to profess support for the party while paying no attention whatever to its utopian platform).

A party with absolutely no experience in running a government, fat with rookie MPs recruited from university campuses and NDP student groups, finds itself suddenly catapulted to Canada’s biggest opposition party, able, with help from other opposition parties, to decide the fate of the latest minority government. Leader Jack Layton’s only related experience was as a major figure in the left-wing faction of Toronto city council. His most experienced colleague, Thomas Mulcair, served as a minister in the Quebec provincial government. He was a secondary  minister and resigned when he was offered something even lower.

Their position has any number of precedents.  Mario Dumont’s Action democratique du Quebec went from nowhere to 41 seats in the Quebec legislature, back to nowhere a year later when voters realized what a pack of bumbling amateurs they were. Brian Mulroney’s historic sweep in 1984 left him with 58 seats in Quebec, many of them neophytes Mulroney barely knew, who helped sink the party into a mire of scandal over the next several years. John Diefenbaker suffered a similar experience when his Progressive Conservatives, after more than 20 years out of power, suddenly found themselves running the show in 1958. The result in each case: big trouble. No matter what you might think about professional politicians, rank amateurs are no better. Ask Bob Rae, whose NDP famously found itself thrust into power in Ontario in 1990, and limped out five years later with the economy in tatters and the party (and province) in disarray.

Jack Layton isn’t likely to be prime minister, but he will hold the fate of the government in his hands.  Stephen Harper’s Conservatives will likely have to temper their budget plans if they hope to stay in power more than another month or so (goodbye corporate tax cut) and make other concessions to their weakened status (goodbye cancellation of party subsidies). But it’s hard to see the Tories agreeing to any of the pie-in-the-sky policies on which the NDP has staked its future. Mr. Layton — who has taken to avoiding questions now that people are actually starting to look closely at his many promises — maintains that he has been very responsible in his campaigning, and that many of the most extravagant pledges will take years to fulfill, and depend in some cases on factors beyond his control (i.e. approval from the provinces, which rarely agree on anything). Sorry Jack — one of the first lessons of power is that people don’t pay attention to nuance, or the caveats attached to campaign promises. Here’s the local report that followed his recent visit to Yellowknife:

    In anticipation of his shot at the seat currently held by Conservative leader Stephen Harper, Layton promised Canadian voters to fulfill his campaign pledges within 100 days of an NDP-led government if the party wins in the May 2 national election.
    Among the campaign promises that Layton made were to create jobs and help elderly Canadians out of poverty. Layton told students in Yellowknife on Thursday that his campaign pledges are not wild, but modest and reasonable.
    The list includes:

        Start training of doctors and nurses
        Provide incentives for Canadian physicians who have left the country to return home
        Double public pensions
        Reduce taxes for small businesses by 2 percent
        Make available a job creation tax credit
        Place a limit on credit card interest rates at 5 points above prime rate
        Remove the federal sales tax off home heating bills, and
        Unlock mobile phones.

Mr. Layton didn’t really promise to get all those things done in the first 100 days, just a few of the easiest. But you get the picture: people hear promises and expect fast action. Those  voters piling onto the NDP bandwagon think they’re going to have their pensions doubled, and fast, and they’re going to be angry when the NDP fails to come through, which it inevitably will.

Similarly, the many Quebecers switching to the NDP in anticipation Mr. Layton will keep his promise to help the province achieve most of the benefits of sovereignty, while the money continues to flow in from Ottawa, will have their illusions shattered. It’s not going to happen, if the rest of the country has any say.

For Mr. Layton and his caucus it will be a learning experience. Unfortunately, they’ll be performing  their experiment with the fortunes of the country. People shouldn’t vote when they don’t know what they’re voting for.  Hopeless idealists can cause a lot of damage before they begin to appreciate that life is more complicated than they thought.

National Post
 
If the Tories get a few seats short of a majority and Blue Grits start jumping ship to give them a majority, it might do the Tores more harm than good in the long run.

I sure don't look kindly on members that will jump ship like that and I know a lot of other people don't either...
 
I love the Layton plan to spend $25m on training new doctors & nurses.

Wonderful, but what will they do when they graduate?  It is the Provinces who hire/pay for doctors & nurses and in my Province there isn't a nickel in the budget to hire new medical staff. I'll bet it is the same elsewhere . . no money to hire doctors and give them a billing number.

So in effect Layton would blow $25 million to train doctors and nurses so they can't find a job in Canada and will likely go to the USA for a career.

The Americans will, no doubt,  be very happy to receive such  NDP largesse.

Me & my money, not so much.


It is this kind of sounds good/feels good policy statement that is floating the NDP boat but doesn't get any scrutiny from the media.

The media's free pass on the NDP has certainly helped the Orange Tide rise.



 
Haletown said:
So in effect Layton would blow $25 million to train doctors and nurses so they can't find a job in Canada and will likely go to the USA for a career.

I don't know many doctors or nurses that can't find employment in Canada...

But you are correct about the problem of them going to the US. It's not that Canada isn't producing enough doctors/nurses, or that these prospective doctors/nurses can't afford to take student loans for fear of not being able to find a job. It's getting them to stay.

I think the answer is simply offering either huge signing bonuses for x numbers of years, or "x" years of tuition for "y" years of service in Canada. Failure to honour contract = all fees repaid at 5% annual interst. If you can lock a doctor down on a 10 year contract, they will likely be 35+ years old and have a family in Canada by the time they can leave without penalty. In the event that an American company is willing to pay the money to break their contract, at least the government gets some return on the money. I would think these kind of contracts would make a huge difference though.
 
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/lawrence-cannon-versus-karate-kid-ndp-wave-threatens-tory-minister/article2004273/

Lawrence Cannon versus Karate Kid: NDP wave threatens Tory minister

Heather Scoffield - Wakefield, Que.— The Canadian Press - Friday, Apr. 29, 2011

Mathieu Ravignat is a former communist, current karate instructor and the NDP candidate in Quebec's Pontiac riding.

The man he's trying to unseat is Canada's Minister of Foreign Affairs.

Conservative sources say Lawrence Cannon is in danger of going down to defeat in his riding across the Ottawa River and west of the capital. He has been placed on the “watch list” the Tory war room keeps of incumbents that are in political peril.

Mr. Ravignat, a social sciences researcher, was nominated two weeks ago at a low-key meeting few took note of after a better-known candidate backed out.

At about the same time, Mr. Cannon was in the Middle East conferring with representatives from the world's most powerful countries on the prosecution of the war in Libya.

See link.
 
Haletown said:
I love the Layton plan to spend $25m on training new doctors & nurses.

Wonderful, but what will they do when they graduate?  It is the Provinces who hire/pay for doctors & nurses and in my Province there isn't a nickel in the budget to hire new medical staff. I'll bet it is the same elsewhere . . no money to hire doctors and give them a billing number.

So in effect Layton would blow $25 million to train doctors and nurses so they can't find a job in Canada and will likely go to the USA for a career.

The Americans will, no doubt,  be very happy to receive such  NDP largesse.

Me & my money, not so much.


It is this kind of sounds good/feels good policy statement that is floating the NDP boat but doesn't get any scrutiny from the media.

The media's free pass on the NDP has certainly helped the Orange Tide rise.

First off, health care, which includes the hiring or doctors and nurses, is a provincial responsibility. The premiers are pretty protective of the feds sticking their noses in what they consider to be provincial affairs. The second thing is that $25 million is chicken feed. I don't think that $25m is going to hire very many. And if the plan was implemented how are the NDP going to allocate the new hires (e.g) Which province gets X numbers of doctors/nurses?

Not very well thought out.
 
Retired AF Guy said:
First off, health care, which includes the hiring or doctors and nurses, is a provincial responsibility. The premiers are pretty protective of the feds sticking their noses in what they consider to be provincial affairs. The second thing is that $25 million is chicken feed. I don't think that $25m is going to hire very many. And if the plan was implemented how are the NDP going to allocate the new hires (e.g) Which province gets X numbers of doctors/nurses?

Not very well thought out.

It's a provincial responsibility funded by federal transfer payments, like universities.  If Layton's plan is to fund the training (or credential equivalence process for immigrating doctors) or to provide some sort of new transfer to provinces to fund hiring more doctors, then I don't see how he's trampling on anyone's territory.  If he tries to tell the provinces how to run their health care systems, that's a different story, but I think he's a little smarter than that.

As for allocations, some incentive mechanism to bring doctors and other practitioners to underserved (read: rural) areas would be ideal.
 
The latest poll from EKOS

Conservatives - 34.5%/35.5% commited voters
NDP - 29.7%/30.6% commited voters
Liberals - 20%/19.9% commited voters
Greens - 6.9%/5.8% commited voters
Bloc - 6.3%/6.1% commited voters

http://www.ekos.com/admin/articles/FG-2011-04-29.pdf
 
Redeye said:
It's a provincial responsibility funded by federal transfer payments, like universities.  If Layton's plan is to fund the training (or credential equivalence process for immigrating doctors) or to provide some sort of new transfer to provinces to fund hiring more doctors, then I don't see how he's trampling on anyone's territory.  If he tries to tell the provinces how to run their health care systems, that's a different story, but I think he's a little smarter than that.

As for allocations, some incentive mechanism to bring doctors and other practitioners to underserved (read: rural) areas would be ideal.

My understanding is that that once the provinces the health transfer payments they can spend it as they want. I agree with you that the feds and the provinces can come to some deal, but going back my statement above $25m is small change, especially when you try to spread it between 10 provinces and three territories.
 
Reproduced under the Fair Dealing provisions (§29) of the Copyright Act. Conservative blogger Steve Janke over at Angry in the Great White North has his take on why he thinks the polls reporting a NDP surge are out to lunch.

Conservatives clawing back?
Friday, April 29, 2011 at 02:27 PM

EKOS was probably the first to detect the magnitude of the NDP surge, and now it looks like it is the first to detect the Conservatives clawing back:

"In an interesting development, as the Conservative Party's overall margin over the NDP has shrunk to a mere five points, the newfound parity of the NDP and Liberal Party in Ontario appears to have produced significant benefits in terms of seat returns. So while the Conservatives have lost ground to the NDP and have remained flat in Ontario, the new tie between Liberals and NDP in Ontario is causing vote splitting that has elevated the Conservative Party's prospects. While they have remained under 40 points in Ontario, they would now be ticketed to receive the lion's share of Ontario seats with less than two-fifths of its votes.  With 61 of Ontario's 106 seats, the Conservatives are now projected to win 146 seats. This means that they would basically reproduce their  current number of MPs although their caucus would be a dramatically different Ontario-based government. The vote splitting also would reduce the joint total of NDP and Liberal seats (109 and 42, respectively) to 151, which is shy of the 155 needed to have a majority."

In fact, I think the national pollsters are underestimating CPC support (and for that matter, Liberal and Bloc Quebecois support) and overestimating NDP support.  The polls also can't predict what's going to happen on election night, and by that I mean that get-out-the-vote efforts will favour the Conservatives over their opponents, with the NDP coming in last when it comes to the ability to drum up voters on Monday.  The other thing polls can't predict is the sombre moment at the ballot box, when a voter who had previously exclaimed with glee "I like Jack!" decides instead to vote Conservative when he or she realizes what a strong NDP showing would mean for yet another election in a year, and then another after that, as well as the coming assault the socialists will mount on any Canadian who has enjoyed financial success should the NDP actually attain power before that next election.

Really, the Conservative have promised income splitting in three years.  That means you keep more of your money!  Jack Layton has promised to make the tax code more severe.  Do the math.  A lot of people will be doing the math, I think.

In this campaign of inches, a slightly better GOTV operation and a percentage or two shift of votes at the ballot box will make all the difference in the world.  Indeed, the EKOS analysis goes on to say a majority for the Conservatives is still very possible.

Just remember how crude the polling techniques are.  You are trying to infer the results of an election when millions of votes are cast from a sampling of a 1000 or so people.  First of all, almost 80% of the people called don't answer or hang up, so already you are dealing with the 20% who like to talk to pollsters.  Despondent Liberals might not be in the mood right now, for example, so Liberal support might be underestimated, while NDP excitement pushes their responses rate up.  But more than that, as has been observed, NDP support of spread thinly, with large concentrations in the cities.  I think it's likely that polling tends to oversample urban votes versus rural votes (just by virtue of the number of people you can actually call), but the electoral system gives rural votes extra weight (a riding is a riding, regardless of whether it is a crowded urban area or a lightly populated farming region).  The pollsters will make adjustments, of course, but somehow I think adjustment formulas derived from previous elections are not calibrated properly for what we have here.  So maybe experience shows that if 3 out of 10 urban respondents profess to like Jack Layton, that translates into 2 out of 10 rural votes for the NDP, and the pollster uses that 3:2 ratio to fill in the blanks in areas where he did not get any responses to his phone calls. (This just an example -- the numbers aren't meant to be real.)  But that 3:2 ratio is wrong in this election because it's not adjusted for the Liberal collapse, which is an urban phenomenon, not a rural one (simply because the Liberals have been essentially an urban party since the last election), so the real adjustment is more like 5:2.  In other words, it may turn out that the massive uptick of NDP support in the cities is not something that can translate into other non-urban ridings because the driver is only in the cities, but the blunt instrument of polling can't detect that with any fidelity.  We won't know until after Monday, but pollsters are trying to guess the answer now.

And it's just that.  A guess.

That's just an example of how this sort of thing can get very complicated, and how past experience can't be a guide to situations where the events (like the utter collapse of a major party) is unprecedented.

But as crude as polling techniques are, this analysis confirms what a lot of observers suspect, and that is that result of this election will be hugely significant, but not an insanity-blasting rewrite of the laws of physics.

It will come down to the same choice we had at the beginning.  A stable national majority Conservative government, or an unstable minority that falls quickly, with another election, or worse, a short-lived but economically damaging coalition led by socialists beholden to separatists.

Addendum: Oh, look at that.  Stephen Harper takes a huge 18 point leap in the leadership index today, while everyone else, including Jack Layton, drops between 3 and 4 points.  If that pushes even a small number of votes into the Conservative camp...

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