- Reaction score
- 5,959
- Points
- 1,260
Election 2011
- Thread starter Edward Campbell
- Start date
- Reaction score
- 1,408
- Points
- 1,040
Conservative leader Stephen Harper speaks during a campaign stop in Brampton, Ontario, Friday, April 29, 2011.
Photograph by: Aaron Lynett, National Post
Slightly OT, but I watched a bit of that speech last night on CPAC. Mr. Harper actually impressed me with his energy. I also saw Mr. Ignatieff. He also came across quite well. The difference, for me, is that Mr. Harper was talking policies, where Mr. Ignatieff was just talking.
- Reaction score
- 0
- Points
- 160
Technoviking said:
Is part of the Liberal problem that Ignatieff says a lot of nasty things about the Conservatives while Harper has others say the nasty things about the Liberals. To me, Ignatieff seems pretty bitter. Right now he's just whistling past the graveyard on his way back to Harvard, the visiting professor, you know.
- Reaction score
- 5,959
- Points
- 1,260
Some other mainstream media editorial endorsements:
Vancouver Sun: Conservatives
Edmonton Journal: Conservatives
Calgary Herald: Conservatives
Winnipeg Free Press: Conservatives
Hamilton Spectator: Conservatives – reluctantly
Montreal Gazette Conservative majority
Several other newspapers, from the Victoria Timers Colonist to the St. John's Telegram, are just encouraging people to get out and vote for the party of their choice.
Vancouver Sun: Conservatives
Edmonton Journal: Conservatives
Calgary Herald: Conservatives
Winnipeg Free Press: Conservatives
Hamilton Spectator: Conservatives – reluctantly
Montreal Gazette Conservative majority
Several other newspapers, from the Victoria Timers Colonist to the St. John's Telegram, are just encouraging people to get out and vote for the party of their choice.
- Reaction score
- 5,959
- Points
- 1,260
Here, reproduced under the Fair Dealing provisions (§29) of the Copyright Act from ThreeHundredEight.com, is the penultimate projection based on aggregated polls:
http://www.threehundredeight.blogspot.com/
So, based on the aggregation of the various polls, the NDP are eating the Liberals' lunch and dinner but the Conservatives remain headed for another, very slightly larger, minority.
http://www.threehundredeight.blogspot.com/
CANADIAN POLITICS AND ELECTORAL PROJECTIONS
April 30, 2011 Projection - Conservative Minority Government
SATURDAY, APRIL 30, 2011
More NDP gains, closing on Liberals
Four national polls (EKOS, Angus-Reid, Nanos, Ipsos-Reid) were added to the projection this morning. Unfortunately, I didn't get the details of the newest Léger poll before I ran the numbers so it will have to be included in tomorrow's final update, which should also include the latest numbers from at least three other new polls that will be released between now and then.
The Conservative slide in national support has stopped, and they are up 0.1 point to 36.8% in the projection. They are unchanged at 144 seats.
The New Democrats have gained 1.3 points nationally and have moved into second with 25.1% support. They are also up six seats to 59, which still places them in third.
The Liberals are down 0.9 points to 24.1% and five seats to 65, while the Bloc Québécois is down to 7.1% nationally. They are also down one seat to 40 in Quebec. Unless the final polls added to the projection are radically different, we can expect the Bloc to drop below 40 seats tomorrow.
The Greens are down 0.3 points to 5.7% and remain at no seats.
Regionally, the Conservatives made big gains in Alberta and the Prairies, and finally stopped dropping in Ontario. They are down in Quebec and Atlantic Canada, however.
The New Democrats are still making big gains in the projection, with increases between 1.1 and 2.4 points in British Columbia, Ontario, Quebec, and Atlantic Canada. At 31%, they've moved comfortably ahead in Quebec and are even starting to challenge the Tories and Liberals in Atlantic Canada.
The Liberals are down everywhere, dropping about a point in British Columbia, the Prairies, Ontario, and Atlantic Canada, while the Bloc is down slightly in Quebec to 29.8%.
Eight seats have changed hands in the projection.
In British Columbia, Conservative candidate Troy DeSouza is now projected to take Esquimalt - Juan de Fuca from the Liberals, while the NDP's Ronna-Rae Leonard is now the projected winner in Vancouver Island North, a Conservative riding.
In Ontario, Alicia Gordon of the Conservatives is now favoured in Kingston and the Islands.
In Quebec, the New Democrats have captured four more ridings. Raymond Côté is projected to win Beauport - Limoilou (Conservative), Hélène Leblanc is projected to take LaSalle - Émard (Liberal), Isabelle Morin is projected to win Notre-Dame-de-Grâce - Lachine (Liberal), and Alexandre Boulerice is projected to win Rosemont - La Petite-Patrie (Bloc).
And in Atlantic Canada, Ryan Cleary of the New Democrats is now the projected winner in St. John's South - Mount Pearl.
The final week's ceilings will be posted later this afternoon, with the final projection being posted tomorrow late in the day in order to capture every last poll.
So, based on the aggregation of the various polls, the NDP are eating the Liberals' lunch and dinner but the Conservatives remain headed for another, very slightly larger, minority.
- Reaction score
- 0
- Points
- 160
Nemo888 said:
Did Harper slip a $5 into the collection plate one Sunday instead of $50? No dirt on my upstanding Baptist MP and if there was I would have heard it. Really small town.
Nemo888 said:
Some skeleton.
1:30 in the morning is a strange time to have "massage therapy'
Being naked while getting "massage therapy" is also very strange.
Getting "massage therapy" from an unlicensed but fully employed sex trade worker is also a strange way to get your "massage therapy"
Most of go to licensed offices in regular business hours and maybe get asked to change into gym shorts.
But Jack is a Progressive so he's smarter than us peons so of course he is being honest with Canadians.
Because we demand our politicians be honest and of good moral character.
That's our good little socialist Jack . . .
- Reaction score
- 10,327
- Points
- 1,260
Well, it has been interesting to watch this one and I think we'll have our most interesting results since 1993.
My prediction at the last push is that we'll see the Cons with a small majority, with the Libs and the NDP sitting in a dead heat for official opposition. My believe on the NDPs numbers is that it is catastrophic for the left of center vote.
First, I believe the NDP rise will have an effect on the less-than-stalewart members of other parties. Yes, the left side of the Liberal and BQ will bleed to the NDP. The core supports will stay on their sinking ships. The blue Liberals and some softer Quebec nationalists I can see moving to the Conservatives, as their interests are probably better served there than with their own burning hulks or the NDP crow about to feast on them. In sum, I'll argue that any losses the Cons had to the other parties for whatever reason they'll probably make up from those parties in being the only attractive choice to the hard left policies of Layton.
Secondly, the Conservative numbers have remained relatively stable at the 35-40% - people who vote Conservative are still going to vote Conservative.
This hasn't been enough to get the Cons the majority in the past, but look how the Opposition parties got their seats - 47 through a concentration in Quebec, 77 through a concentration in the cities and the NDP who picks up a scattershot of seats as their support is generally diffuse. Now we see support going to the NDP (which is real) that takes support from those two "concentrations" for a good chunk of the 161 seats the opposition held and puts it in a second party, meaning "opposition" seats in concentrated areas are now being fought over by the NDP and the Lib/BQ.
For a perfect example of what this will do, look at 1993 where the Reform held 19%, the Progressive Conservative Party held 16%, and the BQ (recently having left the PC fold) held 14%; add the 7% of the NDP and you get a 56% opposition popular support - the key is this is fairly evenly spread with Reform/PC competitions in the West and PC/BQ competitions in Quebec, leading to first-past-the-post wins for the Liberals. The data Edward just put up shows, 24%, 25%, 7% and 6% for the Greens, another left vote, giving 62% opposition popular support - again, the spread will give enough first-past-the-post winds for the Conservatives. Despite all the political excitement around the rise of the NDP and the immolation of the Libs/BQ, diffusing the vote on either side of the spectrum cannot be viewed as a good thing for the parties occupying it.
This should translate into about:
Cons: 155-160
Libs: 55-60
NDP: 55-60
BQ: 25-30
So there you have it - Infanteer's 2011 election predictions. Let's see if I should get in the crystal ball business.
My prediction at the last push is that we'll see the Cons with a small majority, with the Libs and the NDP sitting in a dead heat for official opposition. My believe on the NDPs numbers is that it is catastrophic for the left of center vote.
First, I believe the NDP rise will have an effect on the less-than-stalewart members of other parties. Yes, the left side of the Liberal and BQ will bleed to the NDP. The core supports will stay on their sinking ships. The blue Liberals and some softer Quebec nationalists I can see moving to the Conservatives, as their interests are probably better served there than with their own burning hulks or the NDP crow about to feast on them. In sum, I'll argue that any losses the Cons had to the other parties for whatever reason they'll probably make up from those parties in being the only attractive choice to the hard left policies of Layton.
Secondly, the Conservative numbers have remained relatively stable at the 35-40% - people who vote Conservative are still going to vote Conservative.
This hasn't been enough to get the Cons the majority in the past, but look how the Opposition parties got their seats - 47 through a concentration in Quebec, 77 through a concentration in the cities and the NDP who picks up a scattershot of seats as their support is generally diffuse. Now we see support going to the NDP (which is real) that takes support from those two "concentrations" for a good chunk of the 161 seats the opposition held and puts it in a second party, meaning "opposition" seats in concentrated areas are now being fought over by the NDP and the Lib/BQ.
For a perfect example of what this will do, look at 1993 where the Reform held 19%, the Progressive Conservative Party held 16%, and the BQ (recently having left the PC fold) held 14%; add the 7% of the NDP and you get a 56% opposition popular support - the key is this is fairly evenly spread with Reform/PC competitions in the West and PC/BQ competitions in Quebec, leading to first-past-the-post wins for the Liberals. The data Edward just put up shows, 24%, 25%, 7% and 6% for the Greens, another left vote, giving 62% opposition popular support - again, the spread will give enough first-past-the-post winds for the Conservatives. Despite all the political excitement around the rise of the NDP and the immolation of the Libs/BQ, diffusing the vote on either side of the spectrum cannot be viewed as a good thing for the parties occupying it.
This should translate into about:
Cons: 155-160
Libs: 55-60
NDP: 55-60
BQ: 25-30
So there you have it - Infanteer's 2011 election predictions. Let's see if I should get in the crystal ball business.
Here's the email version sent to me
Nik on the Numbers
The Conservative advantage over the NDP stands at eight percentage points as the campaign enters its final weekend.
Conservative support nationally is 38.0% followed by the NDP at 29.6%, the Liberals at 23.3%, the BQ at 5.2% and the Greens at 3.1%.
The Liberals and the Conservatives are statistically tied for the lead in Atlantic Canada at 37.8% and 34.5% respectively followed by the NDP at 23.0% and the Greens at 2.0%.
In Quebec, the NDP lead the pack with the support of 39.0% of decided voters, followed by the Bloc at 22.2%, the Liberals at 19.1%, the Tories at 16.3% and the Greens at 1.9%.
In Ontario, the Tories are at 35.3%, followed by the Liberals at 31.7%, the NDP at 28.5%, and the Green Party at 3.8%.
Tory support continues to increase in the Prairies and has now hit a high of 65.1%, with the NDP a very distant second at 19.4%, the Liberals at 13.3% and the Greens at 2.2%.
Support for the parties in BC is relatively unchanged with the Tories at 43.5%, the NDP at 34.7%, followed by the Liberals at 16.2% and the Greens at 5.5%.
Party platform remains the top vote driver at 49.3% of Canadians.
Visit the Nanos website at 4pm daily to get the latest nightly tracking update on the top national issue of concern and the Nanos Leadership Index comprised of daily trust, vision and competence scores of the leaders.
The detailed tables and methodology are posted on our website where you can also register to receive automatic polling updates.
Methodology
A national random telephone survey is conducted nightly by Nanos Research throughout the campaign. Each evening a new group of 400 eligible voters are interviewed. The daily tracking figures are based on a three-day rolling sample comprised of 1,200 interviews. To update the tracking a new day of interviewing is added and the oldest day dropped. The margin of error for a survey of 1,200 respondents is ±2.8%, 19 times out of 20.
National Ballot Question: For those parties you would consider voting for federally, could you please rank your top two current local preferences? (Committed voters only - First Preference)
The numbers in parentheses denote the change from the three day rolling average of the Nanos Nightly Tracking ending on April 28th (n=1,200; committed voters only n=1021). *Undecided represents respondents who are not committed voters (n=1,200).
Canada (n=1048 committed voters)
Conservative 38.0% (+1.6)
NDP 29.6% (-1.6)
Liberal 23.3% (+1.3)
Bloc Quebecois 5.2% (-0.5)
Green 3.1% (-0.9)
*Undecided 12.7% (-2.3)
Vote Driver Question: Which of the following factors are most important to you today in influencing your vote [Rotate]? (n=1,200)
The numbers in parentheses denote the change from the three day rolling average of the Nanos Nightly Tracking ending on April 28th (n=1,200).
Party Policies 49.3% (+0.6)
Party Leader 24.6% (-0.6)
Local Candidate 15.0% (+0.1)
Traditionally Vote for Party 6.9% (-0.3)
Unsure 4.2% (+0.3)
Nik on the Numbers
The Conservative advantage over the NDP stands at eight percentage points as the campaign enters its final weekend.
Conservative support nationally is 38.0% followed by the NDP at 29.6%, the Liberals at 23.3%, the BQ at 5.2% and the Greens at 3.1%.
The Liberals and the Conservatives are statistically tied for the lead in Atlantic Canada at 37.8% and 34.5% respectively followed by the NDP at 23.0% and the Greens at 2.0%.
In Quebec, the NDP lead the pack with the support of 39.0% of decided voters, followed by the Bloc at 22.2%, the Liberals at 19.1%, the Tories at 16.3% and the Greens at 1.9%.
In Ontario, the Tories are at 35.3%, followed by the Liberals at 31.7%, the NDP at 28.5%, and the Green Party at 3.8%.
Tory support continues to increase in the Prairies and has now hit a high of 65.1%, with the NDP a very distant second at 19.4%, the Liberals at 13.3% and the Greens at 2.2%.
Support for the parties in BC is relatively unchanged with the Tories at 43.5%, the NDP at 34.7%, followed by the Liberals at 16.2% and the Greens at 5.5%.
Party platform remains the top vote driver at 49.3% of Canadians.
Visit the Nanos website at 4pm daily to get the latest nightly tracking update on the top national issue of concern and the Nanos Leadership Index comprised of daily trust, vision and competence scores of the leaders.
The detailed tables and methodology are posted on our website where you can also register to receive automatic polling updates.
Methodology
A national random telephone survey is conducted nightly by Nanos Research throughout the campaign. Each evening a new group of 400 eligible voters are interviewed. The daily tracking figures are based on a three-day rolling sample comprised of 1,200 interviews. To update the tracking a new day of interviewing is added and the oldest day dropped. The margin of error for a survey of 1,200 respondents is ±2.8%, 19 times out of 20.
National Ballot Question: For those parties you would consider voting for federally, could you please rank your top two current local preferences? (Committed voters only - First Preference)
The numbers in parentheses denote the change from the three day rolling average of the Nanos Nightly Tracking ending on April 28th (n=1,200; committed voters only n=1021). *Undecided represents respondents who are not committed voters (n=1,200).
Canada (n=1048 committed voters)
Conservative 38.0% (+1.6)
NDP 29.6% (-1.6)
Liberal 23.3% (+1.3)
Bloc Quebecois 5.2% (-0.5)
Green 3.1% (-0.9)
*Undecided 12.7% (-2.3)
Vote Driver Question: Which of the following factors are most important to you today in influencing your vote [Rotate]? (n=1,200)
The numbers in parentheses denote the change from the three day rolling average of the Nanos Nightly Tracking ending on April 28th (n=1,200).
Party Policies 49.3% (+0.6)
Party Leader 24.6% (-0.6)
Local Candidate 15.0% (+0.1)
Traditionally Vote for Party 6.9% (-0.3)
Unsure 4.2% (+0.3)
- Reaction score
- 10,327
- Points
- 1,260
To give a little more into why I feel 25-30% for the NDP does not equal 35-40% for the Cons (or 25-30% for the Libs, for that matter), here is how some previous popular support translated into seats, using the last election and the 1993, which I feel this one will have the same dynamic as:
1993:
Lib - 41% = 177/295
BQ - 14% = 54/295
Reform - 19% = 52/295
NDP - 7% = 9/295
PC - 16% - 2/295
Note the disparity between the BQ and the PC with very similar popular votes.
2008:
Con - 38% = 143/308
Lib - 26% = 77/308
BQ - 10% = 49/308
NDP - 18% = 37/308
Green - 7% = 0/308
Note some differences, like what Green 7% in 2008 and NDP 7% in 1993 came out to or how a 3% difference meant good majority vice strong minority.
Again, popular support is only half the equation - it has to go through the first-past-the-post, seat count grinder first and, as my previous post highlighted, I think that grinder will be on the Conservative side this general election.
1993:
Lib - 41% = 177/295
BQ - 14% = 54/295
Reform - 19% = 52/295
NDP - 7% = 9/295
PC - 16% - 2/295
Note the disparity between the BQ and the PC with very similar popular votes.
2008:
Con - 38% = 143/308
Lib - 26% = 77/308
BQ - 10% = 49/308
NDP - 18% = 37/308
Green - 7% = 0/308
Note some differences, like what Green 7% in 2008 and NDP 7% in 1993 came out to or how a 3% difference meant good majority vice strong minority.
Again, popular support is only half the equation - it has to go through the first-past-the-post, seat count grinder first and, as my previous post highlighted, I think that grinder will be on the Conservative side this general election.
- Reaction score
- 10,327
- Points
- 1,260
I don't know what kind of political crack you're smoking to find that interesting.
First, the NDP has never formed a Federal government with the responsibilities entailed in federal level budgeting, so no comparison can be drawn between their provincial successes and the Grit/Tory governments that have handled the federal budgets for the last 144 years.
Second, comparing budgets between NDP and the rest straight across means little, as governments are largely creatures of the time and circumstances of their mandate. That's great if the NDP could balance a budget in Manitoba during a good economy, but it says nothing of what an NDP government would have done in Nova Scotia during an economic downturn.
First, the NDP has never formed a Federal government with the responsibilities entailed in federal level budgeting, so no comparison can be drawn between their provincial successes and the Grit/Tory governments that have handled the federal budgets for the last 144 years.
Second, comparing budgets between NDP and the rest straight across means little, as governments are largely creatures of the time and circumstances of their mandate. That's great if the NDP could balance a budget in Manitoba during a good economy, but it says nothing of what an NDP government would have done in Nova Scotia during an economic downturn.
- Reaction score
- 0
- Points
- 210
They should have a graph showing how much economic growth happens under high taxed NDP governments many had to come to Alberta to find work,hell when Eskimo and Roughriders play in Edmonton the billboards advertising for RR fans are everywhere.
ballz
Army.ca Veteran
- Reaction score
- 444
- Points
- 910
I find it hard to believe that "no comparison" can be made from provincial to federal budgeting. Different yes, incomparable, no.
I find it interesting because despite some of the awful things I've heard about provinces having an NDP government and having it crush their economy, the figures somewhat show different.
However, I realize that generally whoever is in government is either dealing with or benefitting from whatever was done by the last government, as the effects of mistakes / keen decisions don't unfold for years later. EDIT: Perhaps they should show a graphs of what the budgets looked like 5 years after a party loses power as well. It would be stupid to suggest that a present government doesn't have an effect on the budgets of a future government. [/EDIT]
None the less, I think it's naive or biased to say that historical facts/figures aren't interesting/relevant. No crack required ;D
I find it interesting because despite some of the awful things I've heard about provinces having an NDP government and having it crush their economy, the figures somewhat show different.
However, I realize that generally whoever is in government is either dealing with or benefitting from whatever was done by the last government, as the effects of mistakes / keen decisions don't unfold for years later. EDIT: Perhaps they should show a graphs of what the budgets looked like 5 years after a party loses power as well. It would be stupid to suggest that a present government doesn't have an effect on the budgets of a future government. [/EDIT]
None the less, I think it's naive or biased to say that historical facts/figures aren't interesting/relevant. No crack required ;D
- Reaction score
- 0
- Points
- 410
ballz: The comparison would be apples vs oranges or lollipops. I guess you just have to live under about 3 decades of NDP dominance to truly appreciate the damage that results from communistic policy. As the point was made, Rider fans are everywhere. For years Saskatchewan's best export to the rest of Canada was people. We had to leave this province to make a living and we didn't even have the excuse that all the Cod fish were gone. The only hard core Dipper types left in this province are the ones on the government teat, mostly in Regina or intellectual types who can blithely ignore reality when it slaps you in the face.
- Reaction score
- 5,959
- Points
- 1,260
I suspect this 'counter-endorsement', reproduced under the Fair Dealing provisions (§29) of the Copyright Act from the Globe and Mail, is far closer to the prevailing view of the Globe's journalists than was the official endorsement published Wednesday. The Globe's official endorsement is, without much doubt, the view of the publisher and, probably, a fairly small minority of the editorial board.
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/anyone-but-harper-a-dissenting-endorsement/article2005395/
I will not bother explaining where Hays is wrong on the issues – he is just regurgitating a mix of Liberal and NDP propaganda. It is just an opinion piece and opinions are like ________ – we all have 'em.
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/anyone-but-harper-a-dissenting-endorsement/article2005395/
I will not bother explaining where Hays is wrong on the issues – he is just regurgitating a mix of Liberal and NDP propaganda. It is just an opinion piece and opinions are like ________ – we all have 'em.
- Reaction score
- 1,681
- Points
- 1,090
Infanteer said:
Anyone who thinks the NDP in Manitoba are fiscal angels should come and live here. There's a reason we're one of the highest taxed jurisdictions in the country. Only NS, PEI and Quebec exceed Manitoba's tax burden.
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