Election 2011

[Jed]

http://www.steynonline.com/content/view/4001/26

THE HAND OF FATE

Steyn on Canada and the Commonwealth
Sunday, 01 May 2011
....

This is the way the Liberal world ends, not with a bang but a ...oh, to hell with it.   

;D What a great piece of writing. Definitely a spill the coffee moment for me!

 

[vonGarvin]

Interesting that the media are happy to have this ending to the NDP narrative, but are unwilling to bring out other well-known facts.  Imagine the furor in some very conservative circles were a cabinet minister to be found in Ottawa and Toronto's gay bathhouses - yet not a peep in the mainstream media.

Ah, perhaps; however, the homosexual community in Canada is the passion du jour, so any attack on a member of their community would be labelled as a homophobic attack, and nobody wants that.  But it's still okay to criticise the breeders for their desire for gratification.

 

[Haletown]

Interesting that the media are happy to have this ending to the NDP narrative, but are unwilling to bring out other well-known facts.  Imagine the furor in some very conservative circles were a cabinet minister to be found in Ottawa and Toronto's gay bathhouses - yet not a peep in the mainstream media.

He just looked like John Baird, wasn't actually him.

 

[VinceW]

Here's some highlights of some Marxist NDP candidates thinking,just the typical nonsense you'd expect and more.

http://www.torontosun.com/2011/04/29/we-cant-let-these-ndp-jokers-have-the-keys-to-our-country

 

[Edward Campbell]

Here, reproduced under the Fair Dealing provisions (§29) of the Copyright Act from today's Globe and Mail is Éric Grenier's (of ThreeHundredEight.com) projection of likely outcomes when the dusrt settles tomorrow night:

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/majority-barely-an-option-official-opposition-up-for-grabs-as-final-polls-roll-in/article2005713/

Majority barely an option, Official Opposition up for grabs as final polls roll in

ÉRIC GRENIER
Globe and Mail Update

Published Sunday, May. 01, 2011

Despite having to fend off a late surge by the New Democrats in the last week of the campaign, all indications are Stephen Harper’s Conservatives will likely win their third consecutive election Monday night. But whether the next government will be a minority or a majority, and who will be facing the Prime Minister across the aisle in the House of Commons, remains unknown.

With polling data still pouring inover the weekend,ThreeHundredEight.com’s final seat and vote projections for the campaign won’t be posted until the end of the day. But a look at the most likely minimum and maximum seat totals the parties could win reveals the very different scenarios that could unfold when the votes are counted.

Taking into account all riding-level projections with a gap of five points or less between the projected winner and the challengers, the Conservative Party could win as few as 128 seats or as many as 156. If the Tories end up closer to their lower range, their government is unlikely to survive for very long. But at 156 seats the Conservatives would be just over the bar of 155 needed for a majority government. It gives them absolutely no room for error.

Nevertheless, they are almost certainly going to win the most seats. Who finishes second, however, is a toss-up.

The Liberals have a narrower range than the New Democrats, and should win between 53 and 80 seats. On the one hand it would be their second historic defeat in a row, and would place the Liberals in third position in the House of Commons. But there is still a sliver of hope for the Liberals. When the election was called the Grits held 77 seats in the House of Commons. They could return about as many MPs to Ottawa if things turn in their favour Monday night. But with their range dropping so far below their performance of 2008, it is far more likely that as many as a dozen Liberals or more will not be re-elected.

The New Democrats, on the other hand, can look forward to a good night. Though there still is the possibility their starry-eyed hopes will be dashed, they are still likely to win more seats than ever before: their minimum of 47 seats is still four more than the best Ed Broadbent ever did. But Jack Layton can legitimately hope to become the next Official Opposition leader. His maximum likely seat range is 81, more than twice the number of seats his party won in 2008.

For the Bloc Québécois, all they can do is salvage a catastrophic campaign. As the NDP does not have enough resources to put in any great effort in much more than half-dozen ridings, the Bloc could still pull 46 seats out of the debacle. That would nevertheless be a loss of one compared to their pre-election standing. Far more likely, however, is that Gilles Duceppe will be dealt his party’s worst electoral defeat in its history. The Bloc could bottom out with as few as 25 seats, far fewer than its previous worst of 38. The Bloc Leader entered the campaign confident his party would be given its seventh straight majority of seats in the province. That seems like nothing but a dream five weeks later.

But there is still much at play in four parts of the country: British Columbia, Ontario, Quebec, and Atlantic Canada.

In British Columbia, the Conservative range is from 18 to 25 seats, and with a majority only just within their reach every seat will count. The New Democrats could win as many as 12 in the province, while the Liberals will have to fight hard to win more than their minimum of three.

The best potential source of gains for the Tories is Ontario, where they could win between 48 and 58 seats. The Liberals will need to make their stand here, as they can pull as many as 40 seats out of the province. They might still, however, be reduced to only 29.

Much is at stake for the Liberals and Conservatives on the Atlantic coast as well, as the Liberals could win between 11 and 18 seats in the region. The Conservatives could take between seven and 13. How the votes fall in Nova Scotia and Newfoundland could mean all the difference for the Tories.

But Quebec is the big unknown. Will the New Democrats manage to get the vote out? Will the Bloc prove more difficult to oust than the polls might suggest? There is a wide range of seats within the NDP’s grasp in Quebec. They could win anywhere from 10 to 32. Either result would be a historic breakthrough for the party, but only one moves Jack Layton into Stornoway and one confidence vote away from being Canada’s next prime minister.

ThreeHundredEight.com’s projection model aggregates all publicly released polls, weighing them by sample size, date, and record of polling firm accuracy. The tested seat projection model makes individual projections for all 308 ridings in the country, based on the provincial and regional shifts in support from the 2008 election and including the application of factors unique to each riding, such as the presence of well-known candidates and the effects of incumbency.

These projections are a reflection of the likely result of an election if an election were held today. They are subject to the margins of error of the opinion polls included in the model, as well as the unpredictable nature of politics at the riding level.

Now here is my guesstimate – from one week ago.

OK, I'll play.

Here are my guesses in three colours: Hope, Expect and Fear

   

                     

                     

               

            Others
159/152/122        54/65/100              55/41/31          39/49/53         1/1/2


Obviously, being a dyed in the wool Conservative I hope that, during the last week of the campaign, we (the Conservative Party) can convince our fellow Canadians that a majority is a good idea. I expect that we will come close - but that only counts in horseshoes and hand grenades. I fear a Liberal resurgence and a win for Elizabeth May.

My fondest hope (verging on wet dream status) is that "Jack and the Dippers" will win even just one more seat than Prince Michael and the Liberals - thus hastening the demise of the LPC, as we know it, by encouraging a small handful of elected Liberal MPs to quit the caucus and either: join the NDP, sit as independents and/or join the Tories.

I am, roughly (BQ excepted), within Grenier's ranges and I will not bother to change my prediction, but if I was so inclined I would say:

Cons:  152
NDP:    64
Libs;    60
BQ:      32 – and may hat's off to Jack Layton for that result! 

 

[observor 69]

Very latest from ipolitics.ca


http://ipolitics.ca/2011/05/01/conservative-ndp-gap-narrows-to-three-points-in-dwindling-hours-of-campaign/

 

[Edward Campbell]

And here, reproduced under the Fair Dealing provisions (§29) of the Copyright Act from Wilfred Laurier University's LISPOP, is their latest/final projection:

http://www.wlu.ca/lispop/seatprojections.html

 

 

 

  140            96            57            15
                                                                                        Hooray!


With these numbers a NDP led coalition is possible IF the Liberals are content to be junior partners and with explicit BQ support. Many, many Dippers will pressure Layton to organize that coalition, defeat a Conservative government on the Throne Speech and give the Liberals a few cabinet seats. My guess is that Layton will be tempted but the Liberals will not join. Layton will not be able to gain the confidence of parliament with just the BQ for support because too many Liberals will reject him.
             

 

[Edward Campbell]

The LISPOP projection gives Layton 49 seats in QC, it gives Duceppe 15 and divides the other 11 between the Liberals (seven) and the Conservatives (four).

Layton will look at that caucus with fear - only a handful of them were selected with the thought that they might become MPs. He will look in their faces and see three, maybe five of those 49, who are cabinet material, and 35-40 who he would not, not in his wildest dreams, ever invite to the cabinet table. He will also remember Brian Mulroney's QC caucus that rejected his program, abandoned his party and formed the BQ 20 years ago and he will tremble ... If the LISPOP projection is correct.

 

[jollyjacktar]

Personally I'll put up with the thought of Jack as the leader of the opposition just for the sheer fascination/enjoyment of seeing him beat the crap out of the Bloc Traitors and Iggy and crew as well as the "holy crap, i've killed it what do I do next" look that will be on his face too boot.  I expect the party lynch mobs won't be long in showing to tar, feather and ride out of town on a rail those two turkeys come Tuesday.

 

[Kat Stevens]

My prediction:  The sun will still rise on Tuesday morning, I will still have to go to work and see an obscene amount of money that I worked for get handed over to "them", whichever version of "them" wins, and I will still have absolutely no influence over how it gets spent.  Repeat every four years till dead.

 

[VinceW]

These are the results from the last election most Conservative numbers were underestimated and the Lefts numbers were mostly overestimated.

 

[Kirkhill]

My prediction:  The sun will still rise on Tuesday morning, I will still have to go to work and see an obscene amount of money that I worked for get handed over to "them", whichever version of "them" wins, and I will still have absolutely no influence over how it gets spent.  Repeat every four years till dead.

Sounds like the same planet I'm stuck on.....

 

[VinceW]

The leak about Layton in the Bawdyhouse was from the Liberals not the Conservatives.

http://bcblue.wordpress.com/2011/05/01/layton-massage-bust-was-commonly-known-within-media/

 

[Fishbone Jones]

The LISPOP projection gives Layton 49 seats in QC, it gives Duceppe 15 and divides the other 11 between the Liberals (seven) and the Conservatives (four).

Layton will look at that caucus with fear - only a handful of them were selected with the thought that they might become MPs. He will look in their faces and see three, maybe five of those 49, who are cabinet material, and 35-40 who he would not, not in his wildest dreams, ever invite to the cabinet table. He will also remember Brian Mulroney's QC caucus that rejected his program, abandoned his party and formed the BQ 20 years ago and he will tremble ... If the LISPOP projection is correct.

It would be like that night in Ontario, when Bob Rae got that deer in the headlights look as he exclaimed " What do you mean we won. Shit. What do we do now? " Then proceeded to trash everything Ontario had stood for and built for the last 100 years. If Harris hadn't gotten realistic, tough and pulled our asses out, no matter how much it hurt, we'd be way worse off than McGuinty has put us back into.

 

[ModlrMike]

Whatever happens, it's going to be entertaining reading the CBC comments. Almost as much fun as it's been reading the reaction to the Globe's endorsement of the Conservatives.

 

[Kalatzi]

RE Layton and the massage parlour.

Eack of the main Toronto Papers yesterday lead off with the Royal Wedding.

Except the Sun, For them the main story was abaove.

Seemed somewhat surreal.

But they have to maintains their high journalistic standards and ideals.

I think I just threw up a bit in my mouth when I typed that.

 

[Dennis Ruhl]

The LISPOP projection gives Layton 49 seats in QC, it gives Duceppe 15 and divides the other 11 between the Liberals (seven) and the Conservatives (four).

Layton will look at that caucus with fear - only a handful of them were selected with the thought that they might become MPs. He will look in their faces and see three, maybe five of those 49, who are cabinet material, and 35-40 who he would not, not in his wildest dreams, ever invite to the cabinet table. He will also remember Brian Mulroney's QC caucus that rejected his program, abandoned his party and formed the BQ 20 years ago and he will tremble ... If the LISPOP projection is correct.

Layton isn't going to tie Westerners and Quebecois with a socialist thread for long.  Mulroney couldn't do it and the old Social Credit couldn't do it.  Maybe Quebecers just got sick of that sour look on Duceppe's face and went for the Layton smile.  It isn't permanent.

All the Bloc and liberals have to do is sit back, elect a younger generation of leader, spend several years building him up, and wait for the next election.  Perhaps the Liberals want to lose the look of desparation to rule and just project competence.  The biggest threat to the Liberals is the NDP so maybe they want to avoid being coup partners with them.  The enemy of your enemy can still be your enemy.

 

[Saskboy]

Whatever happens, it's going to be entertaining reading the CBC comments. Almost as much fun as it's been reading the reaction to the Globe's endorsement of the Conservatives.

I wouldn't be surprised if the CBC pulled its own version of this stunt: http://tiny.cc/acdsj

 

[VinceW]

The Harris Decima poll

Conservatives - 36%
NDP - 30%
Liberals - 19%
Greens - 6%
Bloc - 6%

http://www.harrisdecima.ca/news/releases/201105/1163-conservatives-lead-six

 

[a_majoor]

If we had a real media, perhaps some of this would have been reported on many weeks, months or even years ago:

http://conservativereporter.wordpress.com/2011/05/01/ndp-seems-to-have-a-hidden-agenda-read-on/

NDP seems to have a hidden agenda- read on -
Posted by: NB TORY GAL on: May 1, 2011

NB Tory Gal says : I am taking my lead from the Financial Post, having read it many times now. I feel it is worth bringing forth on this the last day of the election campaign.

All points taken from the article written by: Terence Corcoran – Jack Layton’s Hidden Agenda.

Financial Post says: Let’s have a rummage through the baggage rack and under the floorboards. We’re looking for plans Mr. Layton didn’t mention in the platform, long-standing NDP agenda items, ideological positions they don’t talk much about but which underlie everything the party does. Does the NDP have any “hidden agendas”?

The CBC’s Leslie MacKinnon recently reported on the NDP’s official constitution, a 2003 document that specifies why the NDP exists. It turns out the NDP constitution is itself a hidden agenda.

First, here’s a core statement from the preamble outlining the “principles of democratic socialism” that guide the party:

That the production and distribution of goods and services shall be directed to meeting the social and individual needs of people within a sustainable environment and economy and not to the making of profit;

To modify and control the operations of the monopolistic productive and distributive organizations through economic and social planning. Towards these ends and where necessary, the extension of the principle of social ownership….

The New Democratic Party is proud to be associated with the democratic socialist parties of the world and to share the struggle for peace, international co-operation and the abolition of poverty.

NB Tory Gal says:Apparently the article states that the above constitutional extract is not available for public consumption, it is an internal read for Party members only. Within this article it is stressed that the NDP have been busy trying to put up their policies to be adopted by the House of Commons. All of them have failed so far, but, this will give you a good idea of what they are about and will continue to seek.

Financial Post says: Bill C-311 A pet project through the last session of Parliament, and long a part of the NDP agenda. It’s an act to ensure Canada assumes its responsibilities in preventing “dangerous” climate change under United Nations agreements. The word “dangerous” is code for a UN trigger clause that would jumpstart massive global government regulation. Mr. Layton personally backed C-311, a bill loaded with regulatory process and expanded government control over all carbon-generating economic activity. In essence, it would formally lock Canada into following UN-based dictates, even if those dictates were contrary to Canadian interests and even contrary to common sense.

Bill C-502 An act to block oil tankers from entering waters off the British Columbia coast, a move that would prevent the export of oil and gas.

Bill C-337 A union crowd-pleaser that aims to prevent federally regulated industries from hiring replacement workers in the event of a strike. Sounds innocuous, although it would do little more than give unions at airlines, railways and other firms more power and make it more difficult for companies to compete and make profits (see constitution above).

Bill C-469 An Act to establish a Canadian Environmental Bill of Rights would, in practice, bog businesses down in legal and regulatory thickets every time they are seen to be doing some “harm” to the environment.

Financial Post says: Other bills make up the hidden agenda list: C-518 would shut down aquaculture; C-474 would move to subject agricultural seeds to review for “potential harm” before “any new genetically modified seed is permitted;” C-298 would impose “corporate social responsibility” on Canadian mining companies operating abroad.