Election 2011

[Infanteer]

My prediction:  The sun will still rise on Tuesday morning, I will still have to go to work and see an obscene amount of money that I worked for get handed over to "them", whichever version of "them" wins, and I will still have absolutely no influence over how it gets spent.  Repeat every four years till dead.

Amen to that!

 

[Kalatzi]

I wonder to what extent what is happing in our souther neighbour isw playing a role in this

I think that people may perceive Harper/Ignatieff to be two side of the same coin, in much the same way that Bush/Obama  are, at least in my opinion.

Give a choice of - more of he same conserveral/libercons  and stalled bloc people may be opting for a genine change.

Hopefully it wont be like friend O'Bama,  "Change" but only for the worse. Never thought I would type that

 

[Edward Campbell]

Here, reproduced under the Fair Dealing provisions (§29) of the Copyright Act from ThreeHundredEight.com, is the final projection:

http://www.threehundredeight.blogspot.com/

CANADIAN POLITICS AND ELECTORAL PROJECTIONS

http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-LNUKO-AH9wQ/Tb4qWj_zlqI/AAAAAAAAFDk/BiFJsbJ9Ii4/s640/11-05-01.PNG[img]
[color=yellow]May 1, 2011 Final Projection - Conservative Minority Government

SUNDAY, MAY 1, 2011
Final Projection: Conservative minority, NDP runner-up
The polls were released later than expected, and so the final projection update is also coming later than expected. Many polls were added to the projection today: 10 in all. They include polls from Nanos Research,Léger Marketing, Forum Research, Abacus Data, COMPAS, EKOS Research, CROP, and Harris-Decima. And several of these firms had multiple polls added to the model as they released new data throughout the day.

In the end, this amount of polls has represented several normal days' worth of movement in the projection. The change has been radical.

On the eve of the vote, ThreeHundredEight.com projects that the Conservative Party will win another minority government, with the New Democrats forming the Official Opposition. The Liberals will place third while the Bloc Québécois will be relegated to the fourth position in the House of Commons.

The Conservatives are projected to take 36.4% of the vote and 143 seats, the same number of seats they had when the government fell. However, considering that two of the three vacancies were safe Conservative seats, we can even say that this is a loss of two for the party.

The New Democrats are projected to take 27.3% of the vote and win 78 seats, an increase of 42 over their pre-election standing. It is almost double their previous best under Ed Broadbent.

The Liberals are projected to win only 22.8% of the vote and elect 60 MPs, a reduction of 17 since the election was called. 

The Bloc Québécois is projected to win 28.1% of the vote in Quebec and 6.7% nationally, enough to give them 27 seats in the province. That is a loss of 20 for Gilles Duceppe, and the first time the Bloc would be reduced to a minority of seats in Quebec.

The Greens are projected to win 5.6% of the vote and no seats. No independents are projected to be elected

Compared to yesterday's projection, this is a drop of one seat and 0.4% for the Conservatives and a drop of 1.3% and five seats for the Liberals. The New Democrats are up an astounding 19 seats, as well as 2.2%. Most of this comes in Quebec, where the Bloc drops 1.7 points and 13 seats.

Twenty-two seats have changed hands in the projection since yesterday.

In British Columbia, the NDP takes Esquimalt - Juan de Fuca from the Conservatives, who had taken the seat from the Liberals in the projection recently. The New Democrats also take Saskatoon - Rosetown - Biggar from the Tories.

In Ontario, the Conservatives take Ajax - Pickering, Brampton West, and Guelph from the Liberals. The New Democrats take Beaches - East York and Parkdale - High Park from the Liberals and Oshawa from the Tories.

In Quebec, the New Democrats take Charlesbourg - Haute-Saint-Charles from the Conservatives. They also take the following seats from the Bloc:

Alfred-Pellan, Brome - Missisquoi, Compton - Stanstead, Longueuil - Pierre-Boucher, Marc-Aurèle-Fortin, Québec, Repentigny, Rivière-des-Milles-Iles, Rivière-du-Nord, Saint-Bruno - Saint-Hubert, Saint-Hyacinthe - Bagot, Shefford, and Verchères - Les Patriotes.

This has been a very exciting ending to a very surprising campaign. I am confident in my projection, but I am well prepared for it to be wrong. This campaign has proven that anything can happen, and that Canadian politics do not always have to be boring.

Tomorrow night will be a very exciting one, no matter what the outcome. I will be watching simply as a Canadian, but will be on Twitter to comment on how the night unfolds and how the projection holds up.

And now that I've provided my take on what will happen tomorrow night, it is up to all of you to go out there and prove me wrong. That means you need to vote!

Fascinating. For the Conservatives it might turn out to be an unnecessary election: no change in the number of seats – but they lose a few and gain a few others. The big change is that the second party, the official opposition is now the NDP, but with just one more seat than the Liberals had six weeks ago (78 vs 77). The Liberals drop to third party status with 60 seats – a baker's dozen more than the BQ had a few weeks ago when it was the third party and (Hooray!) the Bloc is projected to drop to fourth party status with 27 seats – 11 fewer than the Dippers had when they were the fourth party.

The NDP and Liberals, combined, will be close (at 138) to the Conservatives in total seat count but I'm not sure that a coalition, which must have BQ support to overthrow the Conservatives and then secure the confidence of the HoC, is in the cards. Both Harper and Layton  might want another election soon – say in early Nov 11 - each for the same reason: a majority government.

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Thanks to Mike Bobbitt for, temporarily, reopening this board so that I could post this final projection.

 

[Edward Campbell]

Now that the polls have closed we can look at what was projected and what is happening, right now.

Here are two rather 'independent' (not by polling firms) projections and the emerging results:

Party:                             

 

 

 

  Others  Undecided
LISPOP                              144          98          51            15            --
ThreeHundredEight.com    143          78          60            27            --
        Emerging results:    137      85      30          7        --            --
        (Elected & leading)

 

[ModlrMike]

2107

CBC has already declared the Conservatives the government. It remains to be seen what their total is. Early results are encouraging. With AB and BC yet to be added, there is still a numerical possibility of a majority.

 

[Retired AF Guy]

CBC is saying there are a hundred ridings where the vote is within 100 votes.

 

[HavokFour]

Hooooooooooooooly crap, Conservatives just might get a majority! ;D

 

[dapaterson]

CTV is saying there's 10% chance of a Conservative majority.

The NDP numbers in Quebec are astounding, even if they "only" gain 23, instead of the forecast 46(!) increase in the province.

 

[Haletown]

Harper leading/elected in 136  . . .  and the West is just starting to be counted

Likely majority

 

[Infanteer]

Wow - didn't expect the Bloq and Libs to get smoked that bad.  Let's see what Western Canada gives to the Cons.  May be a majority.

 

[OldSolduer]

Wow - didn't expect the Bloq and Libs to get smoked that bad.  Let's see what Western Canada gives to the Cons.  May be a majority.

Smoked? Blowed up real good......

 

[Nfld Sapper]

138 for Harper now......

 

[HavokFour]

Never mind, my results are already old.

 

[Edward Campbell]

The Dippers are elected or leading, at 2215 Hrs, in 60+ of QC's 75 seats. That's HUGE but it means that some pretty strange and even scary people are coming to Ottawa.

 

[Brad Sallows]

CPC vote share on CBC is just under 40%.  What does that mean, given the provinces for which no/few results have been returned?

 

[JMesh]

CBC has just stated they are prepared to declare that for the first time in Canadian history we will have an NDP official opposition, but they still haven't made up their minds on majority or minority for the Conservative government.

Interesting to note that as of only a couple of minutes ago, the following were worldwide Twitter trending topics:

1st: #tweettheresults
6th: Rex Murphy
7th: Atlantic Canada

It's interesting to me that our election is being seen as so important even outside our country. It's a nice change.

 

[Edward Campbell]

CPC vote share on CBC is just under 40%.  What does that mean, given the provinces for which no/few results have been returned?

It means they are close to a majority - the Dippers have, primarily, drawn support away from the BQ and the Grits, leaving room "up the middle" for the Tories.

 

[ModlrMike]

2117 update:

Duceppe - trailing

Ignatieff - trailing

May - no data

 

[Fishbone Jones]

They've been analysing for 15 minutes. No one can even hope to predict given the numbers coming in. Atlantic Canada still hasn't reported 100%.  Things won't firm up for at least another hour. Have a beer and take a breath.

I only wish for two things. A CPC majority, and less than twelve succesful candidates for the Bloc. OK, three wishes. That the Bloc loses party status and gets their ass kicked to the curb.

 

[HavokFour]

10 SEATS AWAY! GO HARPER GO!