Good Morning, Mister Opposition Leader
Posted on 25 March 2012 by PhantomObserver
Yes, good morning, and congratulations on a well-earned win. I trust you’ve had a good night’s sleep; given that you didn’t exactly set the world on fire with your victory speech, I’m sure everyone thought you needed one.
Well, I know that today’s probably going to be the interview circuit for you, and then comes tomorrow when the really hard work really begins. I figure that today, you’ve got a bit of time to think about your current situation.
First, you’ll be relieved to realize that there won’t be the same kind of pressure on you that your Liberal predecessors had to face. See, Messrs. Dion and Ignatieff had to deal with a caucus and backroom that became addicted to wielding power in government, and had been doing so for more than a decade. They believed, based on their past experience and a predictable misunderestimation of Stephen Harper, that they could easily win a majority government from him. Only now, with their reduction to third-party status thanks in to small part to your mentor, Mr. Layton, do they realize that power is pretty much out of their reach, and for some of them it’s out of their reach forever.
You don’t have that pressure. Sure, there are people in your party who think that the NDP can easily take power in 2015, but right now they have very little to back up their contention, other than an caricaturish perception of rage against the Harper government. You can, in fact, take your time in reworking the party — caucus, infrastructure, fundraising — to become a credible, gen-you-wine, pragmatic Party of the left. You might not take power in 2015 — but 2019 looks perfectly doable. And what’s more, the people in your party who are willing to give you that time happen to be in the majority right now.
Second, there’s the question of what you’ll be getting as Opposition leader. It’s a lot more than just the keys to Stornoway (and by the way, you can count your blessings that you’ll be living in an Official Residence that’s in better condition than the one the PM’s got).
Don’t be too surprised if Mr. Harper arranges for you to get a Privy Council appointment, meaning you get to add “Honourable” before your name. He did it for Mr. Ignatieff about sixteen months after he became leader (technically, a year since he was fully acclaimed as permanent leader), and it’s exactly the sort of gesture of respect Mr. Harper likes to make, since it suits his notions of how Parliament should operate.
You’ll also be getting a few headaches, including the inevitable attack campaigns. (Note that I said “campaigns” — there’s more than advertising involved.)
Some may tell you that it’s started already. Um, no. That’s just the generic “new NDP leader” statement with the “copy/paste” spot where the leader’s name should be. The Tory attack machine hasn’t really gotten serious about going after you, because you weren’t the official Opposition leader yet. Now, you are — and yes, they will.
What you need to understand about the Tory attack machine is that their preferred weapon isn’t personal — that’s interpreting their offerings wrongly. It’s better described as “enhanced negative spin” of whatever’s put forward about you. Think about it: Stéphane Dion is forever branded as “not a leader” because, on the public record, he got defensive about his tenure at Environment. Michael Ignatieff shows little inclination to do Parliamentary work in the months before he becomes leader, coupled with little time devoted to actually reaching the public; that, not a frequent ad buy, helped the success of the “Just Visiting” campaign.
You already have a leg up on those two, thanks to the way the media covered the NDP leadership campaign. They gave everyone some column inches on your pre-federal career, so the Ignatieff line won’t work; they’ve also noted your public persona’s on the combative side, so the “Not a Leader” Dion line won’t work. Of course there’ll be some lefties who lament this state of affairs, but there’s not a lot, other than a charm offensive, that can be done about folks who stubbornly refuse to grow up about politics, so feel free to discount them.
Anyway, the best way to defeat the Tory attack machine? As far as possible, don’t give them anything with a more powerful negative spin than your positive one. Case in point: the F-35 purchase. Among your caucus members are those who understand military matters, or who are willing to learn; put them together with those who are good at understanding budgets and procurement, and you can potentially create a compelling argument that a different plane — the Eurofighter or the Harrier, for example — would make more sense as a CF-18 replacement. The Tory attack machine really can’t do much about that, because it would be obvious to every observer of Canadian politics that you (and your caucus) have thought through your position, and have taken the military seriously.
And that is probably the biggest point you’ll have to consider, as the new Leader of the Opposition: if you want to prove that the NDP is ready for power, get serious about the business of government.
One of the biggest reasons why Stephen Harper won a majority government is because the Opposition spent far too much time trying to nail his administration on “procedure,” arcane aspects of the law and public administration that Canadian voters (a) haven’t been educated about and (b) about which they’d shrug their shoulders, in any case. Contempt of Parliament? Committee shenanigans? Not really on the radar; too much “inside baseball.” And also, too easy and reflexive as a strategy.
With the upcoming budget, you will get ammunition that can be used to cast doubt on the government’s ability to manage the economy. Reducing the public service? Potential damage for the City of Ottawa and other government functions. Program cancellations? Defend them on their merits. Increased spending on other programs? Attack and challenge the reasoning for supporting them. If people can see that you’re serious about your ideas on what government should and shouldn’t be doing, then respect for the New Democrats will rise — and so will the perception that they could be a good alternative.
Now you’re probably wondering why a Tory like myself should care that you be seen as credible, and my response (ever since 2006) will always be the same: an effective government needs an effective opposition. If you oppose Stephen Harper effectively, you will either break him or make him stronger as a result. A lot of folks in your party believe the former; I happen to believe the latter. We all agree, though, that if you aren’t effective, your party’s success in 2011 will be seen as “Jack’s One Hit Wonder.” I don’t think you want that to happen, do you?
