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Election 2015

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GAP said:
But the auto industry is like welfare money...most businesses would rather wait it out and hope for an increase than retool for the oil patch...

Not here. Many of the shops diversified after the last go around. Now they make moulds for Rubbermaid, Fisher Price, etc. The auto companies came back to them and found a significant shift in relationships. The Big Three are no longer in the driver's seat when it comes to negotiating a contract for moulds, tooling and dies. Negotiation terms have changed to the toolmaker's advantage. They'll still do auto jobs, but they are finished being held hostage to them.
 
recceguy said:
Much of that is already happening. There are a number of tool shops, in this area, that have weaned themselves from the auto maker teet and are doing wellhead parts production for Alberta firms.  We have the facilities, expertise and skilled workforce to do it. That's why it's here.

It saved them from closing their doors and putting the workers on the streets.

McSquinty just refuses to acknowledge it, publicly, and just wants to blame the oilpatch, instead of his inept, socialist government, for all his (our) heartache.

An extrapolation of the "Asian Tigers" approach. Korea, Taiwan and even Vietnam make tons of stuff, but they make more parts for other people's stuff. It's the parts end of the equation that's been carrying them along over the years. Parts factories can be more nimble and respond better to changing market forces. Old, staid and entrenched manufacturing can only usually withstand small bumps in the road... unlike the current economic situation. If Ontario (and Quebec) want to renew industry, then making parts for AB, BC, NL is where the money is.
 
recceguy said:
Not here. Many of the shops diversified after the last go around. Now they make moulds for Rubbermaid, Fisher Price, etc. The auto companies came back to them and found a significant shift in relationships. The Big Three are no longer in the driver's seat when it comes to negotiating a contract for moulds, tooling and dies. Negotiation terms have changed to the toolmaker's advantage. They'll still do auto jobs, but they are finished being held hostage to them.

Good to hear
 
E.R. Campbell said:
For many (most?) Canadians health care remains a major election issue. We like our "single payer" health care system and we like to believe, against all the evidence, that it is a good system. But most of us understand that it is strapped for cash and we, broadly, want governments to pump more cash into it ... Why? So that we can have more of this?

Reproduced under the Fair Dealing provisions of the Copyright Act from the CBC:
http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/newfoundland-labrador/story/2012/05/29/nl-tim-hortons-hsc-loss-529.html?cmp=rss

One must ask: who, in their right mind, thought it was a good OK sane idea to pay coffee servers $20.00/hour plus benefits? According to one source the average salary for Tim Horton's servers is in the range of $8.00 to $10.00/hour - less than half what Eastern Health has been paying. It also begs the question: if healh care administrators (please note that health care professionals (doctors, nurses, etc) do not manage hospitals or the system, managing is done by bureaucrats and professional managers) can "manage" a coffee shop this ineptly, how well are they managing the rest of the system, the parts that cost billions and billions of dollars each year? In fact, it begs the question: why are these professional managers still employed? If you owned a Tim Horton's franchise and decided to pay your staff at twice the going rate you would soon be bankrupt, unemployed and homeless.

This is not, strictly, a federal election issue but it is part of the narrative that Stephen Harper is crafting for 2015: "We are good managers, planning for the country's (your) future; we send money to the provinces for your heath care, but they - often being Liberals and NDP - waste it. We want them to innovate, to find new, more productive ways to use the billions we send each year; they just line up and say 'more! More! MORE! Do you really want us to send more and more money into this rat hole? We are going to 'cap' transfers and equalization and stay out of areas of provincial responsibility; it's up to you to elect provincial governments that will serve your needs. And, if you want your money used effectively - not paying $20.00/hour for serving coffee, it is up to you to support us in 2015."


More of he same, this time from Windsor, ON, in this article in he National Post. This time the coffee servers are being paid $26.00/hour and the hospital lost $265K on its Timmies franchise. So ... we have a health care system that cannot run a coffee shop and is always short of cash ... maybe the problem is management, professional management in the hospitals, bureaucratic management in provincial capitals and political management in cabinet rooms, not physicians' and nurses' salaries.


Edit: typo
 
It should also be noted that, if you follow Tim Horton's franchising guidelines, it is all but impossible to lose money.  I know this from when the Tim Hortons was first set up in Petawawa and Canex lost money on it- until it stopping thinking that it knew the coffee business better than the pros did and started to follow the manual.

It takes a special brand of creative incompetence to get to a situation where you lose money selling coffee and donuts.  It is interesting the governmental organizations seem to be the SMEs in this particular regard.
 
I clearly have to rethink buying shares in Tim Horton's if they sell franchises to incompetents.

Drifting back to the topic, Diane Francis rips Tomas Mulcair a new one in the National Post. If this outline is reflective of him, then Stephen Harper has little to worry about, and the LPC gets another breather as the NDP surge withdraws back towards its historic pool. But an ineffective opposition has its on dangers; the governing party becomes complacent and lazy:

http://opinion.financialpost.com/2012/06/01/why-thomas-mulcair-is-clearly-a-national-problem/

Why Thomas Mulcair is clearly a national problem
Diane Francis  Jun 1, 2012 – 1:15 PM ET

Diane Francis: Recent events certainly serve to reveal the character of federal NDP leader Thomas Mulcair, the latest actor on Ottawa’s stage who is in a major supporting role.

NDP leader Thomas Mulcair has had a couple of red-letter weeks.

He moved into the mansion called Stornaway for Opposition Leaders, with its big expense account and Royal trappings.

He got tons of attention when he recycled the “Dutch Disease” phrase to blame the booming West for the beleaguered East.

‘Clearly, the guy is way over his head and this makes him a national problem’

Then he toured the oil sands, Canada’s economic cornerstone, by helicopter and described them as big or “awe-inspiring”.

These recent events certainly serve to reveal the character of the latest actor on Ottawa’s stage who is in a major supporting role. Here’s my analysis of Mulcair based on his recent milestones:

1. On living in a mansion

Mulcair is the latest incarnation of what the British dubbed the “champagne socialist”. Stornaway is another symbol of inherited privilege, like the Monarchy, where status and perquisites are given away to the duly “crowned”.

Mulcair, if consistent with his ideology, should have declined the grand housing perq and diverted the excessive cost of his upkeep to some worthy cause.

He opted instead to live like Royalty even though he backed statements by fellow NDPer Pat Martin that the cost of Royal visits alone was sufficient to abolish the Crown as head of state. He also signed a petition to have The Queen’s portrait removed from the Foreign Affairs building a few months ago.

(To square the circle, the NDP leader cannot criticize the “cake” and eat it too. But he is.)
Related
 
2. On Dutch Disease

Mulcair is a simple-minded ideologue.

The Dutch Disease was named after the rise of the Gilder in The Netherland’s, due to oil and gas exports, which began to reduce the competitiveness of the country’s other exporters and tourism sectors. The same phenomenon applies in Canada, Australia and others.

Mulcair has seized on this to explain a world he doesn’t understand. He blames Canada’s booming oil exports for the moribund economies in Eastern Canada. That’s only a sliver of the problem and to say otherwise is nation-busting. This is why the Western Premiers are furious at him as well as at Ontario/Quebec’s political elites.

The loss of jobs is due to the economic slowdown since 2008, competition from low labor jurisdictions and lousy productivity levels in Canada where they are 25% lower than the U.S.

And, just to set the record straight, countries without commodities have had to import them at dramatically higher prices since 2003 and, despite a drop in their currencies, they suffer from widespread unemployment and no growth.

What’s also missing from Mulcair’s narrative is that Canada’s self-sufficiency and surpluses in oil and commodities have saved the country from a far worse fate. Our booming commodity and energy exports have dramatically buoyed economic activity domestically as the export proceeds and inputs have remained inside Canada’s borders.

(The leader of the Official Opposition should not ask taxpayers to pay for his on-the-job training.)

3. On touring the oil sands for the first time

Mulcair does not do his homework. He has drubbed the oil sands and never visited the area. He has never conversed with global experts, CEOs, investors, workers or many westerners. After one helicopter tour, he said, golly, he had no idea of the scale of the place. This means he has either a) pontificated before he listens and observes or b) he targets selectively for cynical political reasons.

This brings up the issue of Canada’s other energy megaproject, James Bay. This has been a decades-old scheme of flooding a forested area the size of the State of New York and full of wildlife to earn a few billions of dollars in energy exports a year from the Americans. This is on a scale only matched by the Three Gorges in China and while many Canadians believe it’s an achievement, as I do, he cannot support this if he disdains the oil sands.

‘Thomas Mulcair is neither appropriate nor smart. He is very Mul-cairless’

Has he seen what’s gone on, and going on there? Has he calculated the environmental costs of such deforestation? Mulcair thinks the oil sands is big. This is gargantuan.

(The NDP leader bites the hands that feed the country. But only the western ones.)

Clearly, the guy is way over his head and this makes him a national problem. Instead of a person who raises alternatives through thoughtful, nuanced debate on important issues, there is now a socialist who lives in a parallel universe. There is now Mulcair who lives in the lap of the luxury he rails against, offers ruinous prescriptions that attract headlines and does not do his homework.

On the other hand, Mulcair is good news for the Tories but Canada faces serious choices and needs intelligent conversation. This is not a country that exactly has the next century at its feet.

Besides, the decent government now in place needs an appropriate and smart opposition as a check and balance.

But Thomas Mulcair is neither appropriate nor smart. He is very Mul-cairless.
 
More on the problems of Liberal leadership and renewal. Sadly, many of the proposed policy measures this author wants to adopt are areas of Provincial jurisdiction, and intruding into Provincial jurisdiction, overlap and duplication of effort during the years of Liberal governments are some of the root causes of low productivity (having to deal with duplicate government offices) as well as out of control spending. If the LPC could sit down and craft areas of policy under Federal jurisdiction (and no, child care is not one of those areas), then they might have a chance. As an incidental, I personally see no need for "national strategies" in most of these areas, breaking them down into local units and under local jurisdiction is a far better and more viable solution.

Sadly, it seems down to a corination of Bob Rae or perhaps the Young Dauphin, no policy renewal and a slow, agonizing death. If the NDP wasn't so scary (want national Rae Days? Like how the Greek economy has turned out?) then a two party model might be viable, but not the two remaining parties as they are...

http://fullcomment.nationalpost.com/2012/06/10/michael-den-tandt-liberals-must-embrace-the-big-bold-change-its-hardcore-supporters-hate/#more-81307

Michael Den Tandt: Liberal party must embrace the big, bold change its hardcore supporters hate
Michael Den Tandt, Postmedia News  Jun 10, 2012 – 1:08 PM ET | Last Updated: Jun 11, 2012 9:39 AM ET

Delegates line up to vote for Liberal Party of Canada executive and commission officers during the Liberal Biennial Convention in Ottawa January 14, 2012

Here is the difficulty, if you’re a Liberal leadership aspirant gearing up for a yearlong campaign: Your party desperately requires new ideas and bold thinking, if not a top-to-bottom re-imagination. You know this.

But the party’s most ardent supporters — the diehards who are still cutting checks, after three successive electoral defeats, each more demoralizing than the last — are not, as a group, particularly keen on reinvention. They think the long-gun registry was a good idea. They believe Canadian soldiers are best used as peacekeepers, not peacemakers. They like the sound of a national childcare program. And they would never send a UN food rapporteur unceremoniously packing back to Belgium, his ears ringing with “get off my land” braggadocio. Hardcore Liberals don’t just disagree with the Harper government. They’re embarrassed by it.

Related
As Liberals mull Bob Rae leadership run, Canadians say they prefer Justin Trudeau

Andrew Coyne: Liberal leadership questions leave us in a Rae daze

Kelly McParland: Before picking Justin, Liberals should study the real Pierre Trudeau legacy

Polling tell us these folks tend to be older, professional, university educated and relatively affluent. Though planted in their own distinct political culture they are not, at root, ideologically much different from New Democrats. Hence, the risk: If you forge a new path, say things that sound very different either in tone or in content from what recent Liberal leaders have said, you may lose them. Then you’d be truly doomed.

It’s true enough. It’s also a cop-out.

Even if we assume the Liberal party’s hands are tied, somewhat, by the conservative (in the sense of change-averse) nature of its most loyal followers, there are important areas of policy where the party could carve out and shape a saleable niche, offering solutions to problems that neither the New Democrats or the Tories are tackling. Several of the biggest do not require revolutionary change, or anything close to it. They require common sense, plain speech and a willingness to listen to ordinary people.

Liberals could begin speaking truth about education. This is provincial jurisdiction — but the constitutional guarantees that provide for separate schools in Ontario, Alberta and Saskatchewan, as well as the statutes that provide the same in the Northwest Territories, Yukon and Nunavut, are federal. Separate schools in Ontario, under the microscope now because of the furor over provincially mandated ìgay-straight alliancesî in Catholic schools, increasingly look like an anachronism. More importantly, most parents with children in public schools will agree it’s time to bring back the failing grade and negative consequences for bad behaviour. No federal politician is touching this. Yet meritocracy is a liberal, and Liberal, idea.

Food: Amid the chest-pounding over the recent sojourn in Canada of UN Food Rapporteur Olivier de Shutter — which he exacerbated, it must be said, by crafting a report heavily slanted with Eurocratic, statist assumptions — it was lost somehow that Canada does not, in fact, have a national food policy. We need one. As an economic unit the family farm is history. A new generation of small farmers is struggling to make a go of it with organics, local food and direct-to-market initiatives. Supply management in dairy and poultry is long overdue for a rethink. Liberals could do this.

Energy: This is tricky. Party president Mike Crawley is himself a former wind-power executive. Nevertheless, there’s fertile ground here, for the simple reason that the wind industry becomes deeply unpopular in any neighbourhood in which turbines are built in quantity. The time is ripe for a frank review of our realistic energy options — including nuclear, natural gas, hydro, clean coal, solar and wind. What are the true costs and benefits of each, including their effects on the environment, and on people? Alberta Premier Alison Redford says we need a national approach. She’s right. Unlike New Democrats, Liberals do not think development for profit is bad. Unlike the Conservatives, they do not think environmentalists wear horns. They could lead this discussion.

Health care: If the Conservatives can’t or won’t lead a national conversation about the future of medicare — they have shown no inclination to do so — then the Liberals should. New Democrats will be reluctant to consider any option that does not involve greater spending and higher taxes and higher wages for public servants. Conservatives will be leery of being perceived as ideological dismantlers of medicare. For them, this is as dangerous a conversation as the one about abortion they’re desperate not to have — perhaps more so.

But the Liberals could delve openly and frankly into the various reform options, including introducing more home care, increasing the numbers of nurse practitioners versus doctors, expanding the role of unconventional medicine (which tends to be more preventive philosophically) and, yes, introducing more private enterprise, where doing so makes sense and does not impinge on universality.

There are more such areas of federal policy — many more. Finding the openings is not rocket science. Arguably, the Grits have no choice but to make the effort and be bold, rather than just run on the same old stuff. It’s the only way they’ll get attention.

We’ll find out, sooner rather than later, whether they’re up to the challenge.
 
Here, reproduced under the Fair Dealing provisions of the Copyright Act from the Globe and mail is a column which deserves a top to bottom read:

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/why-trudeau-needs-to-fail-now-to-succeed-in-the-future/article4254496/
Why Trudeau needs to fail now to succeed in the future

JOHN IBBITSON

Ottawa — The Globe and Mail
Published Wednesday, Jun. 13 2012

On Wednesday evening, the Liberal Party’s board of directors will formally release Interim Leader Bob Rae from his pledge not to seek the permanent leadership. Mr. Rae is then almost certain to run, and almost certain to win, unless Justin Trudeau decides to challenge him.

The Papineau MP says he doesn’t want the job at this time, that family demands come first. It is, of course, his decision.

But before making up his mind once and for all, Mr. Trudeau should consider this: Unless he runs now, he is unlikely ever to become prime minister.

The reason: Ontario voters won’t let him.

One mistake that many analysts make – and they make it over and over and over again – is to assume that the path to power for either the Liberals or the NDP runs through Quebec.

Quebec is an outlier province: it hasn’t voted in substantial numbers for a governing party since 1988. One day, Quebeckers could become the catalyst for a new progressive coalition that sweeps the Conservatives from power.

There is not, however, a single shred of hard political evidence that such a day is at hand.

In the next election, as in every election for decades, millions of middle-class voters who inhabit the swath of suburban ridings surrounding Toronto and other Ontario cities will cast the deciding votes.

Those suburban middle-class Ontario voters are not inclined to deliver the federal government into the hands of an inexperienced newcomer.

Provincially, they voted for Mr. Rae in 1990 only after he had been defeated in 1987. They voted for Mike Harris in 1995 only after he had been defeated in 1990. The voted for Dalton McGuinty in 2003 only after he had been defeated in 1999.

Federally, they voted for Stephen Harper in 2006 only after he had been defeated in 2004. They voted for Jean Chretien in 1993 in part because they had known him as a major figure in the Liberal Party for almost 30 years.

Suburban middle-class Ontario voters opted for Brian Mulroney, a political rookie, in 1984, but they had watched Mr. Mulroney jockey for the job for almost a decade, and his opponent, John Turner, had just returned to federal politics after a hiatus of nine years. In that sense, both were newcomers.

They voted, reluctantly, for the relatively unknown Joe Clark in 1979--though the Liberals held enough seats in Ontario to deprive him of a majority government--then emphatically changed their mind a few months later.

And in 1968, they voted for Justin Trudeau’s father over Robert Stanfield. Both men were new to the national stage.

In other words, anyone who assumes the leadership of a national party without a substantial track record at the national level is unlikely to impress suburban, middle-class Ontario voters, who believe that anyone seeking to govern the nation should have some meat on their resume.

A new arrival usually only has a shot at winning when confronting another new arrival.

If Mr. Trudeau chooses to seek the leadership now, and if he prevails over Mr. Rae, then history and precedent suggest suburban middle-class Ontario voters will reject him in 2015. He will be too young, at 43, and too inexperienced for the job compared to the veteran prime minister, Stephen Harper.

But if he hangs in and offers himself in 2019, he will have a much better chance. He will be 47, he will have led the Liberal Party for six years and he will have been through the tempering fire of an election defeat. Nothing teaches a leader more about himself or herself, and about the calibre of his or her advisers, than losing an election.

By 2019, the Conservatives will be very long of tooth and blunt of claw. Ontario suburban, middle-class voters may decide Mr. Trudeau, who will be 47, is ready.

But if he does not run now, then someone else will lead the party into the 2015 election. Mr. Trudeau will remain the inexperienced outsider, unable to taste victory because he is unwilling to confront defeat. The voters who matter most will have little time for such a politician.

Who are those voters? They’re in Ontario. They live in suburbs. And they’re middle class.


While I agree, broadly, with Ibbitson, he ignores the fact, and it is a fact, that Thomas Mulcair is a formidable, season politician who, like Stephen Harper, is hell bent of seeing Canada become a two party state - and he expects one to be conservative and the other liberal; he presumes that the Conservatives will retain heir grip on the conservative end of the spectrum and wants the NDP to hold the liberal end and he assumes that the two will contend for the middle. If Harper and Mulcair are right then it will not matter, much, who leads the Liberal Party in 2019 because he will be leading them into oblivion, as happened to the British Liberal Party in the 1920s.
 
This article comes to a similar conclusion; Bob Rae didn't run for the leadership of the LPC because he did not want to end his career as captain of a sinking ship. Regardless of how much (contrived) "star power" the young Dauphin is said to have, the reality is he is prone to some pretty embarrassing gaffes and misstatements, and when you see him up close and personal, he really isn't much of a presence.

The other problem is the LPC no longer stands for anything, and unless people like Edward were to sieze power from the LPC executive, their attempts at "renewal" will fail. Much of what I have seen coming from the LPC is driven by people who really seem to have no connection with ordinary Canadians who need to make a living and pay bills (yes, I do read their web site and talk to LPC supporters [most of whom have no idea who I am, but think they are talking to a potential recruit]). A leader with contrived star power but no background or platform hardly seems to be the winning combination; especially against formidible opponents like Prime Minister Harper and Thomas Mulcair:

http://fullcomment.nationalpost.com/2012/06/13/tasha-kheiriddin-bob-rae-didnt-want-to-be-captain-of-a-sinking-ship/

Tasha Kheiriddin: Bob Rae didn’t want to be captain of a sinking ship
Tasha Kheiriddin  Jun 13, 2012 – 4:55 PM ET | Last Updated: Jun 13, 2012 5:33 PM ET

If Bob Rae is out, who is in? At first blush, Mr. Rae’s surprise announcement that he is not running changes the Liberal leadership game dramatically. It paves the way for Justin Trudeau (still officially on the fence, but a fence that appears ready to collapse at any moment) and a band of lesser hopefuls, including Dominic Leblanc, Marc Garneau and Martha Hall Findlay, to toss their hats in the ring and have a real contest, as opposed to a Rae coronation.

Or does it? Mr. Rae claimed he made his decision not for personal, but for political reasons. At the press conference where he announced his lack of intentions, he declared, “I have reached the conclusion that the way in which I can serve my party best is by not running for the permanent leadership,” but rather by remaining interim leader until 2013. He said he will continue working for the party’s renewal, but will let other hopefuls vie to take the reins.

Is Mr. Rae nobly checking his own ambitions at the door to help a party that was never his natural home to begin with? More plausible explanations include: 1. Mr. Rae concluded that he could not win if Mr. Trudeau got in the race; or 2. The prize simply isn’t worth it. Slogging to government from third place is a thankless, grueling task — with no guarantee of success.

Rewind to 1993. After a crushing defeat that reduced the party to two seats, the Progressive Conservatives churned through three leaders before merging with the Canadian Alliance and forming the new Conservative party in 2003. Over 10 years, the PCs simply could not get their mojo back. Not only were they splitting the right-of-centre vote with the Reform/Alliance parties, they had no real raison d’être. Red Toryism wasn’t selling, nor were memories of PC glory days past.

Today the Liberals are in a similar position. While Mr. Rae claims he doesn’t see “a surge to political polarization,” he’s probably the only one in the room with that view. In poll after poll, the NDP sits statistically tied with the Tories; on issue after issue, both Conservative prime minister Stephen Harper and NDP leader Thomas Mulcair are pushing buttons that further divide the electorate along economic, geographic and social-policy lines. Resource development, EI changes, pension reform. You either stand for or against them; there is no mushy middle on these questions for the Liberals to inhabit.

At the same time, the bedrock issues that sustained the Liberal party no longer drive the political agenda. The “just society” envisioned by Pierre Elliott Trudeau has been built, and then some: The Charter of Rights and Freedoms enshrined equality of the sexes, races and the disabled in 1982, abortion on demand has been legal since 1988 and same-sex couples have enjoyed the right to marry since 2005. Human rights tribunals affirm the “human right” of a disabled man to wear hiking boots while working out in a private gym. If anything, the public mood is now pushing back against a system that rewards the slightest of grievances and takes the concept of “rights” to ridiculous excess.

Meanwhile, the Liberal policies of state-funded bilingualism and muliticulturalism have also come under fire. A recent Fraser Institute report questioned whether the $2.4-billion a year spent to provide bilingual services was an efficient use of tax dollars, or whether private services would better fill linguistic needs. In terms of multiculturalism, Canada, like most Western nations, is grappling with how to integrate newcomers after telling them for decades that it’s perfectly fine to stay just as they were. Horrifying reports of female genital mutilation and trials involving the honour killings of young girls have shocked Canadians and thrown into question the “reasonable accommodation” of differing attitudes and cultural practices.

But perhaps the biggest blow to the Liberal party has been the decline of the Quebec separatist movement. From the 1960s to the end of the 1990s, the Liberals’ chief claim to fame was holding Canada together. This started to crack after the 1995 referendum, during which Prime Minister Jean Chrétien was accused of almost losing the country to the separatists. The Liberal response to this near-death experience was the federal sponsorship program, which in 2003 was revealed to have deployed tax dollars, not only to buy the affections of nationalist Quebecers, but to line the pockets of Liberal supporters, leaving a bitter taste even in the mouths of even ardent federalists.

In light of all this, maybe we should be asking a different question: Now that Bob Rae is out, does it matter who is in? The answer is no. Whoever takes the Liberal leadership will likely hold the party’s diminishing fort until attrition leads to a merger with the NDP.

National Post
 
What I haven't heard much about lately is polls showing the Tories and NDP near tied, or a slight lead by the NDP.

Many of the government's actions lately have left a bad taste in my mouth.  The way the huge omnibus bill, which guts resource conservation enforcement and researce, coast guard operations and food inspections, was brought in; and the lack of meaningful debate makes me shake my head.  These are the kind of actions that drive moderate, non-partisan voters away into the arms of left-wing parties.

While I won't be voting for the NDP or Liberals anytime soon, I'm much less enthusiastic as I used to be with the Tories.  If they continue along this way, I may just stay home on election day.
 
RangerRay said:
What I haven't heard much about lately is polls showing the Tories and NDP near tied, or a slight lead by the NDP.

Many of the government's actions lately have left a bad taste in my mouth.  The way the huge omnibus bill, which guts resource conservation enforcement and researce, coast guard operations and food inspections, was brought in; and the lack of meaningful debate makes me shake my head.  These are the kind of actions that drive moderate, non-partisan voters away into the arms of left-wing parties.

While I won't be voting for the NDP or Liberals anytime soon, I'm much less enthusiastic as I used to be with the Tories.  If they continue along this way, I may just stay home on election day.

Overlook the opposition hyperbole and read the bill for yourself. Much of it attempts to streamline operations by eliminating duplication at various levels. There are some contentious areas indeed, but nothing like the NDP or the press make them out to be.
 
RangerRay said:
What I haven't heard much about lately is polls showing the Tories and NDP near tied, or a slight lead by the NDP.

Many of the government's actions lately have left a bad taste in my mouth.  The way the huge omnibus bill, which guts resource conservation enforcement and researce, coast guard operations and food inspections, was brought in; and the lack of meaningful debate makes me shake my head.  These are the kind of actions that drive moderate, non-partisan voters away into the arms of left-wing parties.

While I won't be voting for the NDP or Liberals anytime soon, I'm much less enthusiastic as I used to be with the Tories.  If they continue along this way, I may just stay home on election day.


Here, reproduced under the Fair Dealing provisions of the Copyright Act from the Globe and Mail, is one:

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/where-federal-parties-stand-in-mid-june-2012/article4323529/
nw-number-cruncher18.jpg


I think the Conservatives will have time to recover from some of the damage, the fallout from EI reform, in Atlantic Canada - watch for some targeted goodies in the 2014 and 2015 budgets.

I am less confident about the changes to environmental review process - especially in BC.

Note, however, that when the 30 new seats are added the Tories get 16 of them and the NDP get only 12 - the others go to the Liberals who also appear to pick up two seats from the BQ. For a majority in a 338 seat HoC the Conservatives need to gain 20 seats (from the current projection) from the NDP and Liberals - not anything like a very difficult, much less an impossible proposition.
 
The Liberals collapse is almost total; this poll should lay the "Philosopher King/Star Candidate" leader myth to rest once and for all:

http://news.nationalpost.com/2012/06/18/if-justin-trudeau-were-the-leader-of-the-liberals-the-ndp-would-win-the-next-election-poll/

If Justin Trudeau were the leader of the Liberals … the NDP would win the next election: poll
National Post Staff  Jun 18, 2012 – 10:42 AM ET | Last Updated: Jun 18, 2012 1:03 PM ET

Comments Email Twitter A Forum Research poll of Canadians shows that almost four in ten Canadians would vote for the NDP, and that the youngest voters are the least likely to approve of Justin Trudeau as Liberal leader.

This comes after Bob Rae’s pre-emptive decision to scratch himself from the cast of characters vying for the top spot in the Liberal party.

That’s put pressure on the only other Liberal with an indisputably high profile — Montreal MP Justin Trudeau, eldest son of Liberal icon Pierre Trudeau — to reconsider his initial conclusion that it’s more important to spend time with his two toddlers than to traipse around the country seeking to lead a third-party rump.

However, according to Forum’s poll, Trudeau’s leadership won’t make much of a difference, although more people say they would vote Liberal were he leader, it wouldn’t change the result: the NDP would win either way.


Graphic is too large to attach, go to link for details
 
E.R. Campbell said:
I am less confident about the changes to environmental review process - especially in BC.

The destruction of environmental protections will have legs. As well as behaving as if 32% of the popular vote gives them a mandate to govern with such an extreme agenda. I think they will lose the middle in the next election. Only fear mongering will get them reelected and that is not a long term winning strategy. But I think Harper doesn't care about the long term well being of the party.

The Republican party in the US is facing a rapidly shrinking demographic after a decade on that road. You can use that slice of extreme special interest with it's very large percentage of voter turnout for so long and then the middle deserts you. So big business has been courting the Liberals to become Conservative light. Voters don't buy it. Why get a light beer when I can have the real thing. So NDP is the only alternative to an all  business agenda. God help us.
 
Nemo888 said:
Only fear mongering will get them reelected and that is not a long term winning strategy.

Its not a short term strategy either, how'd it work out for the Liberals in the last few elections?

Conservatives don't need to fear monger, they're sheltering us from the failures of the Liberal/NDP policies that are destroying Greece, Spain, Portugal and Italy. I can't imagine how screwed we'd be if we had a Liberal, let alone a NDP government during the economic crash and now.
 
Nemo888 said:
As well as behaving as if 32% of the popular vote gives them a mandate to govern with such an extreme agenda.

It is not extreme. It is rather sensible. part of my education inluded environmental impact assesment. The way the system is setup prtects nothing, is designed to last as long as possible for no real reason.

The conservatives getting 32% of the popular vote means i don't have to put up with tripe like you just spouted.

But I think Harper doesn't care about the long term well being of the party.

The LPC only cares about being re-ellected. The NDP can't agree on what to care about.

 
Most Canadians want the arctic monitored, fish stocks protected and clean water to drink.

The NDP never expected to be relevant again. They are the most surprised at their success.

Politically thinking John Ralston Saul may be right. The current political models which we use to describe reality are not working as expected. It may be an interregnum period. The old left/right dichotomy makes little sense in a globalized world dominated by economics.

This is a period of mediocrity and stagnation. I wonder what the new paradigm will be. Big changes will come in the next five years I think. Changes that will have little to do with politicians.
 
Nemo888 said:
The NDP never expected to be relevant again. They are the most surprised at their success.

The NDP is neither relevant, nor successful.

The vote in Quebec was not for the NDP. It was a vote against the Bloc.

The NDP will pay next election, for not delivering any major gains for Quebec.
 
Oh, someone trotted out the old "32% of the vote" trope again.

So we now have carte blanche to trash everything the LPC did since 1993 since they had similarly deficient mandates as well, right....
 
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