Election 2015

[Edward Campbell]

I also see Allan Greg of pollster notoriety is railing against Harper on the weekend. The Libs not being in power must really be hitting his bottom line....

I doubt that; Gregg was a Conservative, albeit a Progressive Conservative. His bottom line is, I think, doing quite well as a (well paid) "talking head" on TV. I don't think Gregg likes Harper's Conservatives very much but my guess is that, after the demise of Paul Martin, he likes Liberals even less.  :2c:

 

[GAP]

Hmmm...I always read him as fairly neutral, with a slightly Lib slant.

 

[Edward Campbell]

Here, according to this article which is reproduced under the Fair Dealing provisions of the Copyright Act from the Globe and Mail, is another niche for the Tories to 'occupy' just as they have moved into the various ethnic niches with such good effect:

http://news.nationalpost.com/2012/09/22/warriors-for-gay-rights-the-conservatives-have-become-unlikely-lgbt-supporters/?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter

Warriors for gay rights: The Conservatives have become unlikely LGBT supporters

Tristin Hopper

Sep 22, 2012

Foreign Affairs Minister John Baird stood before the Montreal Council on Foreign Relations this month and outlined his aggressive agenda to “stand up to the violent mobs that seek to criminalize homosexuality.”

“Draconian punishment and unspeakable violence are inflicted on people simply for whom they love and for who they are,” he said.

That same day, Immigration Minister Jason Kenney touted Canada as a haven for gay refugees from Iran. Working with Iranian Railroad for Queer Refugees, Mr. Kenney’s office had fast-tracked 100 gay Iranians into Canada, saving them from possible execution.

A mere seven years ago, the Tories were famously the opponents of same sex marriage. Now, the Harper Conservatives freely push gay rights abroad and even host an annual gathering of gay Tories. While they remain the favourite punching bag for Canadian LGBT activists, have the Harper Tories become unlikely warriors for gay rights?

“I can no longer shock people in the conservative movement when I tell them I’m gay – but I can shock gay people when I tell them I’m Conservative,” said Fred Litwin, and former vice-president of the Ottawa Centre Conservatives.

In June, Mr. Litwin was one of the organizers of the Fabulous Blue Tent Party, a gathering of approximately 800 gay Conservatives at Ottawa’s Westin Hotel that went until 3 a.m.

The same weekend, however, Tories at the party’s annual convention also passed a resolution supporting religious organizations who refuse to perform same-sex marriages.

Although Mr. Harper has resolutely vowed never to touch same-sex marriage, it was only 2005 when, as opposition leader, he told an Ottawa rally, “when elected Prime Minister … I will bring in legislation that will define marriage as the union of one man and one woman.” That same year, in a lengthy parliamentary speech Jason Kenney called marriage a “tautologically a heterosexual institution.”

“It’s no secret that the Conservative Party hasn’t always been the biggest champion of gay rights, but public pressure, and quite frankly, society evolving has changed their views,” said Jamie Ellerton, an openly gay former staffer for Mr. Kenney.

“The Conservative Party, like the rest of society, has moved to be more supportive of gay rights in recent years, and I see that trend continuing,” he said.

Mr. Baird often supported same-sex marriage in his days as a Progressive Conservative member of Ontario’s provincial parliament. As foreign affairs minister, he has taken the fight for gay rights overseas.

In January, before the Royal Commonwealth Society in London Mr. Baird harangued African and Caribbean countries for keeping anti-homosexual laws on their books, calling it a hangover of the colonial era. Two months later, he spoke out against a Russian law that banned the “promotion” of homosexuality, effectively outlawing all gay pride events.

“Canada’s ambassador has written to the Russian government to express our deep concern and, yes, we have at his request, put a travel advisory on our website,” said Mr. Baird.

In 2009, Mr. Harper spoke out against a Ugandan bill that promised to dramatically toughen criminal sanctions against homosexuality, which were already illegal in the African country.

“When I was at the Commonwealth conference, what was [Stephen Harper] talking about? The gays,” Ugandan president Yoweri Museveni said in 2010.

After the 2011 suicide of gay Ottawa teen Jamie Hubley, Mr. Baird told the House that homophobia has no place in Canadian schools, and then appeared with other Tory MPs in a video for the “It Gets Better Project,” an online campaign looking to curb the disproportionately high suicide rates among LGBT youth.

In June, members of the Tory caucus even came to the rescue of a transgendered rights bill put forward by NDP MP Randall Garrison. Promising to protect transgender people under the Canadian Human Rights Act and make anti-transgender violence a hate crime, the bill passed second reading thanks to the support of 15 Conservative MPs, including Jim Flaherty and Lisa Raitt.

“I don’t question other members who may have a different take on this, but, for me and for the kind of principles that I wish to stand up for, this was important,” Tory MP Bruce Stanton, one of the bill’s supporters, told Simcoe.com

U.K. Tories are undergoing a similar evolution. In October, U.K. Prime Minister David Cameron threatened to suspend aid to Commonwealth countries if they refused to abandon anti-gay legislation. Last summer, during a reception for LGBT representatives at 10 Downing Street, Mr. Cameron promised to legalize gay marriage by 2015. “If it’s good enough for straight people like me, it’s good enough for everybody,” he said.

Gay/conservative relations are not nearly as cordial in the United States, where large swaths of the Republican party view homosexuality as a sin. In May, Richard Grenell, an openly gay spokesman for Republican vice-president candidate Mitt Romney, stepped down after the campaign was barraged by criticism from socially conservative groups.

By focusing on free enterprise and individual liberties, instead of religious and cultural issues, Canada’s conservatives have been able to maintain a “much broader tent than the Republican Party in the United States and a stronger movement overall,” wrote Chris Reid, a gay former Conservative candidate, in an email to the Post.

Still, the stigma of Tories-as-homophobes remains.

In 2008, the NDP discovered a videotape from 1991 featuring Saskatchewan Tory MP Tom Lukiwski spouting off against “homosexual faggots with dirt under their fingernails that transmit diseases” – prompting calls for his resignation.

In January, when a foreign same-sex couple who had married in Toronto in 2005 returned to Canada to apply for a divorce, a Crown lawyer argued that the marriage was never technically valid, since neither of the partners were Canadian permanent residents at the time. It was purely a jurisdictional decision – but fingers immediately pointed at a Harper government plot to dissolve thousands of foreign same-sex marriages. (Tellingly, the government introduced measures to make it easier for same-sex couples to divorce.)

Mr. Kenney is still criticized for a 2010 episode in which internal documents revealed his office had decided to omit a brief gay rights timeline from Canada’s official citizenship guide, opting instead to feature a photo of Olympic gold medal swimmer Mark Tewksbury, identifying him as a “prominent activist for gay and lesbian Canadians.”

In truth, the 1990s-era guide had never contained any mention of gay rights before Mr. Kenney ordered an update in 2009. An updated edition now reads “Canada’s diversity includes gay and lesbian Canadians, who enjoy the full protection of and equal treatment under the law, including access to civil marriage.”

The Tories also face criticism for being conspicuously absent from gay pride events. Mr. Litwin said he’s tried to rally Tories into the Ottawa pride parade, but noted that Tory cabinet ministers have been booed in similar appearances at LGBT events.

“Can [the opposition] point and say there’s no openly gay MPs in the Conservative caucus?” said Mr. Ellerton. “I suppose that’s true – maybe one day there will be.”

The Conservatives do have one openly gay caucus member — Senator Nancy Ruth. She originally sat as an independent Progressive Conservative when she was appointed by Liberal Paul Martin, but then became a Conservative after the Harper government’s 2006 election win.

“I’m fat, I’m short, I’m a lesbian, and I’m a Conservative. I don’t fit in with most people I know,” she said in a 2009 interview, adding “I’m here to do things and you can only do things if you have access.”

National Post

My guess is that homosexuals probably mirror the population at large ~ when they are young, 20s and into their 30s, they have left wing ideas but they don't vote very much; as they enter their 40s they vote, more and more, with their wallets (and brains) and they vote more often; as they enter their 60s they become more and more conservative and they vote regularly. The Conservative goal must be to appeal to the 40+ homosexuals, a group that, previously, probably stuck with the Liberals.

The whole country appears, to me, to be more and more fiscally prudent - and thus favour the Conservatives - but, equally, more and more socially liberal - which means the Conservatives must move in that direction.

Kitchener MP Stephen Woodworth and his pro-life/social conservative allies must be allowed to have their say every year or do (but not in the year leading up to an election!) but the Conservative Party must make it clear that those are private, religiously based matters which have no role at all in the party's plan for governing.

 

[Redeye]

They need to market it well. Social conservatives are what drove me to leave the Conservative Party after the merger, and that (along with some other things) make it difficult for me to support them. They have to do more to marginalize the social conservatives like Woodsworth if they want to attract younger voters, I'd think.

I'm pretty sure that the Liberals and the NDP will hammer the CPC on social conservatism at election time, so they do need to formulate a plan to deal with it.

 

[Edward Campbell]

They need to market it well. Social conservatives are what drove me to leave the Conservative Party after the merger, and that (along with some other things) make it difficult for me to support them. They have to do more to marginalize the social conservatives like Woodsworth if they want to attract younger voters, I'd think.

I'm pretty sure that the Liberals and the NDP will hammer the CPC on social conservatism at election time, so they do need to formulate a plan to deal with it.

Actually, I think the Tories can, very broadly, concede most of young (18-35 year old) vote to the left ~ it's not going Conservative anyway so why waste resources chasing a political mirage?

Social conservatism is an advantage in bigger, more 'electorally lucrative' niches: Asian immigrants, for example, where even 20 somethings are more conservative than their Euro-Canadian confreres. Thus I don't think Prime Minister Harper needs to "ditch" his social conservative members at all - just direct them towards audiences where they can do the most good/least harm. The Liberals are, actively, giving the boot to their social conservatives and I suspect a pro-life or anti-same sex marriage view will get short shrift from Thomas Mulcair, too, so the Tories have that niche to themselves. The best course open is to downplay it in late 2014 and throughout 2015, except in a few ridings, including several in suburban Toronto.

 

[Kirkhill]

I wouldn't concede the young vote.

In my opinion many of the young are highly conscious of the value of work, their rights to the fruits of their labour (personal property) and are not convinced of the value of big government.  This is particularly true on many young new Canadians.

Many of them, at the same time, are "socially conscious" and want to contribute to the betterment of society and others but don't want to feel coerced or even manipulated into doing so. 

Although they are not all religious many have a strong spiritual/moral/ethical aspect to their lives.

I concede that they are definitely not "socially conservative" and in fact I'm inclined to think that libertines might best describe this aspect of their lives.

Taken together I believe that a strong streak of libertarianism in the Conservative Party of Canada would bring over a useful fraction of the young vote.  Possibly not a majority, or not even a strong minority, but certainly a useful number when elections are decided by a few points either way.

And that libertarianism is not objectionable to many older Conservatives.

I happen to like most of the youngsters I've come across - tattoos, piercings, skin heads and dreadlocks notwithstanding.

 

[Edward Campbell]

The problem with the youth vote and the reason I want to focus on 35+ years of age is found in these data estimates from Elections Canada:

Age Group  Participation Rate  Total Voters
18 - 24            38.8%              1,154,402
25 - 34            45.1%              1,882,577
35 - 44            54.5%              2,320,453
45 - 54            64.5%              3,271,283
55 - 64            71.5%              3,020,012
65 - 74            75.1%              1,912,943
>= 75              60.3%              1,261,737

The numbers are in the 35-74 age group; so is voter reliability.

 

[Fishbone Jones]

2015 is too far out for this country's voter to even contemplate. Let alone seriously contemplate.

 

[aesop081]

2015 is too far out for this country's voter to even contemplate. Let alone seriously contemplate.

A large number of Canadians will not start to think about the 2015 election until a month afterwards.

 

[dapaterson]

Conservatives reach out to the gay community.  John Baird is one of the leads in that effort.


I am shocked.  Shocked!

 

[JorgSlice]

A large number of Canadians will not start to think about the 2015 election until a month afterwards.

....in the form incessant whining because they didn't vote and some "tyrant formed a dictatorship"  :

 

[Edward Campbell]

2015 is too far out for this country's voter to even contemplate. Let alone seriously contemplate.

A large number of Canadians will not start to think about the 2015 election until a month afterwards.

Very true, but a small number of Canadians, political insiders and policy wonks for example, are already deeply entrenched in the 2015 campaign: testing the narratives, shaping (with senior civil servants) mid-term policies (we do not "do" long term in North America) and searching for weaknesses in their opponents.

 

[GAP]

searching for weaknesses in their opponents.

Shoot, that's dead simple.....

Just use Manitoba as a classic example of NDP governance

And Ontario of Liberal governance.....

thankfully the Greens are not in power anywhere......

 

[Edward Campbell]

Attacking the other parties for their provincial performances can be a double edged sword: some NDP governments have been (or are remembered as being) fiscally prudent and some Conservative government shave been second rate, at best.

It is better, I think to get personal and nasty. Thomas Mulcair, for example, is reported to have a bad temper and I suspect the Tories will egg him on, trying to make him do something unattractive on TV.

 

[ModlrMike]

It is better, I think to get personal and nasty. Thomas Mulcair, for example, is reported to have a bad temper and I suspect the Tories will egg him on, trying to make him do something unattractive on TV.

I think they have something of a head start. Not entirely photogenic.

 

[Redeye]

I wouldn't concede the young vote.

In my opinion many of the young are highly conscious of the value of work, their rights to the fruits of their labour (personal property) and are not convinced of the value of big government.  This is particularly true on many young new Canadians.

Many of them, at the same time, are "socially conscious" and want to contribute to the betterment of society and others but don't want to feel coerced or even manipulated into doing so. 

Although they are not all religious many have a strong spiritual/moral/ethical aspect to their lives.

I concede that they are definitely not "socially conservative" and in fact I'm inclined to think that libertines might best describe this aspect of their lives.

Taken together I believe that a strong streak of libertarianism in the Conservative Party of Canada would bring over a useful fraction of the young vote.  Possibly not a majority, or not even a strong minority, but certainly a useful number when elections are decided by a few points either way.

And that libertarianism is not objectionable to many older Conservatives.

I happen to like most of the youngsters I've come across - tattoos, piercings, skin heads and dreadlocks notwithstanding.

I largely agree - when I was a university student it it was that sort of thinking that pervaded amongst those of us who identified as conservative. We wanted to have the opportunity to be successful and enjoy the rewards of our efforts, to more or less be left alone otherwise. Of course, that hinges in many ways on governments doing a good job of things they're supposed to do.

The "libertarian" concept, to a certain degree, will also sell well, but it's easily attacked when you look at current government's record. For all their claims of transparency, there doesn't seem to be much. They talked about a triple-E Senate which sounded good (something like Australia's model perhaps), but done nothing but continue to fill it with cronies. I've actually now moved to leaning towards abolishing the Senate altogether. They still have loud social conservatives within their ranks and don't seem to really strongly denounce them to some. Those are things that I'm sure will play into the campaign strategies of the NDP and the Liberals. I can't really anticipate how the NDP will shape up under Mulcair, but the Liberals are impossible to assess until they get themselves a leader.

Mr. Campbell might be right about the younger vote - depending on the other two parties, it's going to be tough to compete, and resources might be applied elsewhere, but at the same time, if a bit of a shift in policy happens, as Mike suggests, then they could actually start picking up some interested young people to vote for them.

 

[ModlrMike]

They talked about a triple-E Senate which sounded good (something like Australia's model perhaps), but done nothing but continue to fill it with cronies. I've actually now moved to leaning towards abolishing the Senate altogether.

Perhaps you missed the part where the provinces were invited to hold senatorial elections? Only Alberta has done so, the remainder refusing. Until the provinces get onside and elect their senators, then little advancement will be done on this front.

 

[Fishbone Jones]

Perhaps you missed the part where the provinces were invited to hold senatorial elections? Only Alberta has done so, the remainder refusing. Until the provinces get onside and elect their senators, then little advancement will be done on this front.

And the short term limits the PM has new appointees agree to before picking them.

As far as filling it with cronies, he's doing what every other PM has done. Appointing people that will expedite the polices and acts passed by the current government.

That is a no brainer, will never change soon and is an almost invalid point to make any sort of case on.

However, as MM posted, without the involvement of the Provinces, he's doing what he can. Which is more than any other PM prior.

 

[Edward Campbell]

The Quebec student movement is trying to morph into a broader anti-Harper thing according to this article which is reproduced under the Fair Dealing provisions of the Copyright Act from the [Toronto Sun:

http://www.torontosun.com/2012/09/29/quebec-student-leaders-want-to-spark-national-anti-harper-movement

Quebec student leaders want to spark national anti-Harper movement

BY GIUSEPPE VALIANTE, QMI AGENCY

FIRST POSTED: SATURDAY, SEPTEMBER 29, 201

The face of the Quebec student protests, Gabriel Nadeau-Dubois, has embarked on a Canada-wide tour to inspire Canadians to fight against austerity measures as well as Prime Minister Stephen Harper.

Gabriel Nadeau-Dubois (QMI photo)

The seven-day speaking tour began Saturday in London, Ont., and ends Oct. 5 in Vancouver.

Nadeau-Dubois is joined on the tour by a former representative from Quebec student federation, CLASSE, as well as Ethan Cox, the Quebec correspondent for Rabble.ca, an online news organization.

Nadeau-Dubois was the spokesman for CLASSE during most of the student protests this year. He resigned in August.

Cox told QMI Agency the Communications, Energy and Paperworkers Union of Canada (CEP) financed about one-third of the cost of the pan-Canadian tour. The rest of the money came in “dribs and drabs” from other unions and community organizations across the country, Cox said.

The tour is also sponsored by Rabble.ca and Leadnow.ca, which bills itself on its website as an organization that seeks “to help Canadians take action together for the fair, responsible and democratic Canada that we believe in.”

Cox would not say how much money was raised for the tour.

QMI Agency was unable to reach the CEP or LeanNow.ca for comment.

Cox said the goal of the tour is to teach Canadians how to build social movements similar to Quebec’s student movement.

He said the critical component of the success of Quebec’s student protests was that each student “felt a sense of ownership” in the movement.

Tens of thousands of Quebec students went on strike between February and August against the government’s decision to increase tuition by 82% over seven years.

Former Quebec Premier Jean Charest called an election in August, in part, to quell the social unrest that had rocked the province since the strike started.

The Charest Liberals narrowly lost the Sept. 4 election and the winning Parti Quebecois cancelled the tuition hike.

Cox said the tour is to “give people a concrete example of a successful social movement and inspire people to fight for what is important to them.

“And yes, we desperately need to get rid of Stephen Harper,” he added.

The Harper government is dismantling the country’s social welfare state, Cox said, “and that needs to be resisted.”

“Democracy cannot be restricted solely to electoral politics. Democracy is a lot more than voting every four years,” he said.

The three speakers are scheduled to give presentations in Toronto, Saskatoon, Regina, Winnipeg, Victoria and Vancouver.

Cox said Saturday’s event in London drew about 150 people.

I do not underestimate the ability of these young people to stir up crowds and noisy demonstrations, but I am not sure that most (even many) Canadians in "new Canada," anyway, are all that interested.

 

[Redeye]

The Quebec student movement is trying to morph into a broader anti-Harper thing according to this article which is reproduced under the Fair Dealing provisions of the Copyright Act from the [Toronto Sun:

http://www.torontosun.com/2012/09/29/quebec-student-leaders-want-to-spark-national-anti-harper-movement

I do not underestimate the ability of these young people to stir up crowds and noisy demonstrations, but I am not sure that most (even many) Canadians in "new Canada," anyway, are all that interested.

Neither, particularly, are most Quebeckers. They don't enjoy broad support in Quebec, either.