Government hints at boosting Canada’s military spending

I'll believe it when I see it.

 

[MilEME09]

Buying 65 doesn't meet the moment on defence spending. But it does create room for a second fleet. How we use that room matters, if we want to send a message.

Buying Gripens, Rafales, Typhoons or KF-21s all send different messages. As would joining one of the Euro next gen programs (FCAS or GCAP).

I mean the euro 6th gen does look pretty sexy, but estimated at over 70ft long, it's as large as the Avro Arrow was

 

[Furniture]

I mean the euro 6th gen does look pretty sexy, but estimated at over 70ft long, it's as large as the Avro Arrow was

View attachment 91949

As the second largest nation on earth, I think we can find room for 70' long aircraft...

 

[FJAG]

If you take away all optionality, it will get worse. At that point, it's basically the Roman Legion. You sign up for life. And if the suggestion is that it will be a life in Cold Lake, recruiting will absolutely drop. The only leverage members have right now, is the threat to release.

Again, can we actually listen to every fucking release survey and try giving people what they ask for before conscription or indentured servitude (CAF edition)?

Actually I should have emphasized as well that a person is automatically entitled to a release when their term of service ends. If you engage for a fixed term of three years and don't reengage then after three years you are good to go. Its the indefinite term that complicates things.

Fixed terms provide a measure of certainty that the indefinite terms do not.

Like you, I'm not a fan of conscription so long as we can get enough volunteers, either regular or reserve that we need to fill the size of military that we want and are prepared to pay for. I understand the concept of "the army equips the man rather than mans equipment" but I think the concept is out of touch when you do not have the equipment needed. I don't believe in throwing money at folks as part of pay packages. I do believe in throwing the money at proper equipment for them and their proper training and the equipment's proper maintenance. I think that if you do the later then the retention issue will be 95% solved.

In my view a highly paid military unable to fight because of lack of equipment and training is of zero value to the country.

 

[Furniture]

Like you, I'm not a fan of conscription so long as we can get enough volunteers, either regular or reserve that we need to fill the size of military that we want and are prepared to pay for. I understand the concept of "the army equips the man rather than mans equipment" but I think the concept is out of touch when you do not have the equipment needed. I don't believe in throwing money at folks as part of pay packages. I do believe in throwing the money at proper equipment for them and their proper training and the equipment's proper maintenance. I think that if you do the later then the retention issue will be 95% solved.

I think you're mostly right, but I think the pay thing is far more import than many of the more senior posters around here understand.

If you already own a place, the current housing market isn't a real problem, but if you are starting out, and have to pay $2100/month for a one bedroom apartment, pay is a pretty big issue. Having cool kit to use is nice, but being able to afford to live and maybe have some cash for a steak or two a month is more important.

Yes other Canadians live in the same places for less money, but we shouldn't be shooting for the bottom. If we want motivated young people to join, we need to make it appealing to the motivated, not the equivalent of working as a supervisor at Best Buy.

 

[ytz]

not the equivalent of working as a supervisor at Best Buy.

If only it was....

 

[ytz]

I mean the euro 6th gen does look pretty sexy, but estimated at over 70ft long, it's as large as the Avro Arrow was

View attachment 91949

My personal preference is FCAS. Simply to reduce ITAR exposure. But that will EIS in 2040 or beyond. So the question is, can we last with 65 F-35s for a decade?

 

[ytz]

I think you're mostly right, but I think the pay thing is far more import than many of the more senior posters around here understand.

If you already own a place, the current housing market isn't a real problem, but if you are starting out, and have to pay $2100/month for a one bedroom apartment, pay is a pretty big issue. Having cool kit to use is nice, but being able to afford to live and maybe have some cash for a steak or two a month is more important.

We're at the point where junior Captains have roommates. Privates live like broke college students. And yet none of the leadership or even retired guys want to talk about pay.

Sure, we don't have members going to food banks like the 90s (that we know of). But we've had surveys that identified members being functionally homeless and couch surfing. And they all hide it from their their CoC. Victoria and Comox are notorious for this.

We also had CFINTCOM members literally calling out their general in a townhall for compromise risk with junior members posted to the NCR, because of housing costs:

Military's intelligence command avoids posting staff to Ottawa because of region's high cost of living

The Canadian Forces Intelligence Command tries to accommodate its personnel, when possible, by supporting alternative work arrangements such as working from home, N…

ottawacitizen.com

But sure, shiny F-35s will fix that....

 

[Furniture]

We're at the point where Junior Captains have roommates. Privates live like broke college students. And yet none of the leadership or even retired guys want to talk about pay.

Sure, we don't have members go to food banks. But we've had surveys that identified members being functionally homeless and couch surfing. And they all hide it from their their CoC.

We also had CFINTCOM members literally calling out their general in a townhall for compromise risk with junior members posted to the NCR, because of housing costs:

Military's intelligence command avoids posting staff to Ottawa because of region's high cost of living

The Canadian Forces Intelligence Command tries to accommodate its personnel, when possible, by supporting alternative work arrangements such as working from home, N…

ottawacitizen.com

But sure, shiny F-35s will fix that....

I was in that townhall meeting at CFINTCOM... The bosses were trying their best to make the shitty situation work. The fact the CCWO frankly addressed the issue was a far better response than other commands were giving at the time.

Pay and overall CoL considerations matter a lot. Cool kit helps, but I don't care how awesome the fighter I'm supporting is if I can't afford to pay rent and not eat instant ramen every night.

 

[ytz]

I was in that townhall meeting at CFINTCOM... The bosses were trying their best to make the shitty situation work. The fact the CCWO frankly addressed the issue was a far better response than other commands were giving at the time.

Yes. Full credit to your COC for at least showing some sympathy.

Every single time I ask the question of somebody senior enough, I get platitudes and evasive answers.

 

[Good2Golf]

If it's that difficult and every possible complaint can be "akshullyed" away as being unreasonable - our force sizes and capabilities, for example - just give up. Let our anti-American politicians beak off as much as they care to. Lump all Americans together and antagonize them instead of persuading the persuadable. Don't think about the future past the next year.

And that unquantified bombast demonizing any consideration of economical and security diversification is better than taking all the lumps that America feels entitled to beat into us and liking it, how?

 

[Good2Golf]

Waffling on whether to continue with an already decided purchase is fundamentally unserious.

If you call it waffling, sure, you can feel that way.

When conducting an Estimate, one always asks (or should ask) “Has the situation changed?” If it has, assess the changed factors of the situation. If the plan as previously developed may no longer be the best plan, it would be fundamentally unsound to proceed unchanged.

I don’t think an assessment of the way forward is unwarranted.

Seems many are content just to write off American bombast as ‘it really doesn’t have any true impact on things. Let’s smile and carry on…’

 

[Brad Sallows]

And that unquantified bombast demonizing any consideration of economical and security diversification is better than taking anllnthe lumps that America feels entitled to beat into us and liking it, how?

I can guess at a few pain points:

• quantity and capabilities of our forces
• ease with which people and contraband enter our country (bearing in mind the yardstick is the way nativists look at their own border controls, not the way Democrats do)
• our reluctance to engage less with China

Looking at the first I just see a slow decline across the past 4 decades. We used to have at least one formation we could call a formation. We used to have more artillery. We have a habit of buying fewer pieces each time we re-equip. We often find ourselves unable to replace something on the original life cycle schedule. We seem to even have trouble buying trucks. The delta between our Reg F and Res F looks like it might be increasing, although I concede proper measurements might find differently. We utterly lack some capabilities that a nation our size ought to have in a navy, army, and air force.

How aggrieved is it reasonable for Americans to feel, as long as we are meeting the requirements of NORAD and at least the minimums of other arrangements? I don't know. It's obvious that we enjoy the benefits of whatever passes for international security, even if most of our trade is with the US.

 

[Brad Sallows]

If dependability of the US is a factor, then dependability of any other potential supplier is a factor, including their output capacity and the routes by which the supplier gets things from their country to ours.

 

[Good2Golf]

I can guess at a few pain points:

• quantity and capabilities of our forces
• ease with which people and contraband enter our country (bearing in mind the yardstick is the way nativists look at their own border controls, not the way Democrats do)
• our reluctance to engage less with China

Looking at the first I just see a slow decline across the past 4 decades. We used to have at least one formation we could call a formation. We used to have more artillery. We have a habit of buying fewer pieces each time we re-equip. We often find ourselves unable to replace something on the original life cycle schedule. We seem to even have trouble buying trucks. The delta between our Reg F and Res F looks like it might be increasing, although I concede proper measurements might find differently. We utterly lack some capabilities that a nation our size ought to have in a navy, army, and air force.

How aggrieved is it reasonable for Americans to feel, as long as we are meeting the requirements of NORAD and at least the minimums of other arrangements? I don't know. It's obvious that we enjoy the benefits of whatever passes for international security, even if most of our trade is with the US.

Thanks for that, a good laydown of associated factors and considerations.

I don’t want people to misinterpret my more recent disappointment and building mistrust of America’s leadership to mean that I don’t also believe that Canada has a notable effort to clean its own house, particularly where China’s overall actions and those more specific towards and within Canada are concerned. This is also a point where I have my own notable concerns about our new PM, and his influence with/by/of Chinese interests…but I digress…I don’t think it unreasonable to have hoped that America’s concerns could be more balanced between pure short-termed transactionalism and more diplomatic discourse. Much of Trump and his administration’s conduct I find disappointing, but some is outright disgusting. His dismissiveness (or perhaps even an underlying failure to care about) Canada’s specific closeness to America in the defence regime is something that I (and no doubt many here) find closer to offensive and repugnant. As well, the pure churlishness of his attitude towards the ‘State-ification’ of Canada into the Republic erodes any element of trust and consideration that he actually cares anything other than for himself and his close cronies.

If dependability of the US is a factor, then dependability of any other potential supplier is a factor, including their output capacity and the routes by which the supplier gets things from their country to ours.

Absolutely, agree fully.

Any diversification of our economy and security needs to be stress-tested against a number of factors, including not only State stability/dependability/reliability, but the resistance of associated Lines of Communication to malign actors seeing an opportunity to increase effective action against Canada.

 

[ytz]

quantity and capabilities of our forces

Looking at the first I just see a slow decline across the past 4 decades. We used to have at least one formation we could call a formation. We used to have more artillery. We have a habit of buying fewer pieces each time we re-equip. We often find ourselves unable to replace something on the original life cycle schedule. We seem to even have trouble buying trucks. The delta between our Reg F and Res F looks like it might be increasing, although I concede proper measurements might find differently. We utterly lack some capabilities that a nation our size ought to have in a navy, army, and air force.

Americans or Trump?

Cause I don't think the guy who called people who served "suckers" really cares all that much about the size and disposition of forces.

How aggrieved is it reasonable for Americans to feel, as long as we are meeting the requirements of NORAD and at least the minimums of other arrangements?

Again. Americans or Trump? Cause I'm not sure Trump actually knows what NORAD is.

I'll ask again. Who exactly do you think we're negotiating with here and what do you think that entity's specific objectives are?

 

[ytz]

I don’t want people to misinterpret my more recent disappointment and building mistrust of America’s leadership to mean that I don’t also believe that Canada has a notable effort to clean its own house, particularly where China’s overall actions and those more specific towards and within Canada are concerned. This is also a point where I have my own notable concerns about our new PM, and his influence with/by/of Chinese interests…

If we're going down this route, Trump and his family have so many ties to China, they'd never pass a normal security clearance process.

Also, they seem to be cozying up to China lately. They are hinting flexibility on Taiwan. With some unprecedented language. They are questioning protection for American allies in the region. And they actually left China off the list of countries of concern for immigration. Doesn't sound to me like they are that hawkish on China. I think they'll happily throw away security concerns with China for trade.

And of this is before we talk about Elon's dependency on China, and how he has never said a single bad thing about China in public.

 

[Good2Golf]

If we're going down this route, Trump and his family have so many ties to China, they'd never pass a normal security clearance process.

Also, they seem to be cozying up to China lately. They are hinting flexibility on Taiwan. With some unprecedented language. They are questioning protection for American allies in the region. And they actually left China off the list of countries of concern for immigration. Doesn't sound to me like they are that hawkish on China. I think they'll happily throw away security concerns with China for trade.

And of this is before we talk about Elon's dependency on China, and how he has never said a single bad thing about China in public.

A Venn diagram of Trump’s and Carney’s interests in China would be…interesting.

 

[Brad Sallows]

I'll ask again. Who exactly do you think we're negotiating with here and what do you think that entity's specific objectives are?

I'm discussing Americans, and particularly Americans who are neither reflexively hostile nor reflexively supportive towards Trump.

We're negotiating with Americans, not Trump. People who are trying to negotiate directly with Trump are on a fool's errand, wasting their time, and probably not getting much done because the goalposts keep changing (if there are any identified in the first place). A more productive course is to persuade people who can influence Trump or influence the actions taken by the administration. This course doesn't have to be perfect; it just has to be better than attempting to reason when the correct premises are absent from the interlocutor's brain (GIGO). Part of this course requires knowing who is worth talking to, and how much freedom of manoeuvre they have.

 

[ytz]

We're negotiating with Americans, not Trump.

If not Trump which Americans are we negotiating with? There's a specific entity sitting across the table authorized to make deals. That is who our Foreign Minister and Prime Minister are negotiating with. If you don't think that is the administration in the White House, than who do you think that is?

A more productive course is to persuade people who can influence Trump or influence the actions taken by the administration.

Really? Cause our federal ministers and Premiers have been trying this for months. This was the famed Liberal strategy from the first Trump term. This time they seem to be coming up short doing this.

 

[ytz]

A Venn diagram of Trump’s and Carney’s interests in China would be…interesting.

Carney's personal interest or his business interest while at Brookfield. Cause honestly I don't think he cares about the latter and probably isn't going back to Brookfield after politics.