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Iran Super Thread- Merged

Here's a little update on the situation: US DoD Sec. Gates urges Arab leaders to confront Iran.

http://www.military.com/NewsContent/0,13319,157838,00.html

Gates: Gulf States Must Confront Iran
Associated Press  |  December 08, 2007
MANAMA, Bahrain - Persian Gulf nations must demand that Iran come clean about its past nuclear ambitions and openly vow to not develop such weapons in the future, Defense Secretary Robert Gates said Saturday.

In a broad call to diplomatic arms, Gates exhorted leaders from the Gulf to band together to force Iran to stop its uranium enrichment program and to help the fragile Iraqi government.

"Everywhere you turn, it is the policy of Iran to foment instability and chaos, no matter the strategic value or cost in the blood of innocents - Christians, Jews and Muslims alike," Gates said in a keynote address at an international security conference.

"There can be little doubt that their destabilizing foreign policies are a threat to the interests of the United States, to the interests of every country in the Middle East, and to the interests of all countries within the range of the ballistic missiles Iran is developing," he continued.

And in a sarcastic riff, he goaded Iran to acknowledge its bad behavior - from arming terrorists in Iraq to its support for militant organizations like Hezbollah and Hamas.

Some questioners challenged his thinking on Iran, underscoring the divide among Arab nations over America's tough stance on Tehran. Asked if the United States would be willing to talk with Iran, Gates said the behavior of Iran's new leadership "has not given one confidence that a dialogue would be productive."

Noting that Iran embraced the recent U.S. intelligence estimate that concluded it had actually stopped atomic weapons development in 2003, Gates drew chuckles from the crowd when he suggested that Iran should accept that all other intelligence conclusions about its conduct are true. Earlier this week, Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad hailed it as a "declaration of victory" for his country.

"In reality, you cannot pick and choose only the conclusions you like of this National Intelligence Estimate," Gates said. "Since that government now acknowledges the quality of American intelligence assessments, I assume that it also will embrace as valid American intelligence assessments of its funding and training of militia groups in Iraq."

Gates said Iran should also acknowledge it delivers weapons to terrorists in Iraq and Afghanistan, supports terror groups and continues to develop ballistic missiles that could be used to carry weapons of mass destruction.

Gates' rebukes didn't reach any Iranian ears directly, since Iran abruptly decided not to attend the gathering, organized by the London-based International Institute for Strategic Studies.

While Gates used the intelligence estimate as a hammer against Iran here, the report has bruised the Bush administration. The findings were in stark contrast to a 2005 estimate that said Tehran was continuing its weapons development.

And it flies in the face of President Bush's rhetoric on Iran, such as when he said in October that people "interested in avoiding World War III" should be working to prevent Iran from having the knowledge needed to make a nuclear weapon.

The administration has acknowledged that the report may make it harder to build international support to persuade Iran to give up its uranium enrichment program. When asked about it, Gates agreed the report came at an awkward time and "it has annoyed a number of our good friends, it has confused a lot of people around the world in terms of what we are trying to accomplish."

Gates' speech followed efforts by Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice to press for new sanctions against Iran.

Rice asserted Friday in Brussels, Belgium, that Washington would continue pressing for new sanctions against Iran while holding talks to convince Tehran to come clean about its nuclear program.

But Russia ignored her calls to punish Iran. Despite continued support from NATO and other European allies, Rice was unable to convince Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov that fresh sanctions were urgently needed.

Gates, in his speech, pressed Gulf nations to back sanctions to force Iran to suspend enrichment, and to demand that Iran "openly affirm that it does not intend to develop nuclear weapons in the future."
In a complex region where partnerships do not come easy, Gates said the countries need to pull together and develop regional air and missile defense systems.

Gates, who was in Iraq earlier this week, also issued a stern call for the Gulf nations to cast aside their sectarian differences and support the struggling new government there.

"The progress is real. But it is also fragile," he said. "The Iraqi government must use this breathing space bought with the blood of American, Coalition and Iraqi troops to pass critical legislation."

He told the gathering that the decline in violence is due to new military tactics, the improved Iraqi military, the decision by some militants to reject terrorism and the "groundswell of ordinary citizens who have risen up to fight against al-Qaida."

Nations in the Middle East, he said, have the most to lose if Iraq dissolves in chaos, and the most to gain if it becomes a stable, secure trading partner.

"I urge you to exercise your influence with the Iraqis and encourage them to meet their own goals and expectations, to live up to their own promises," said Gates. "For other Arabs to withhold support and friendship because of the composition of Iraq's government ... is to increase the risk of the very outcome many in the region fear."

Gates ended his speech with a grim warning against underestimating the United States.

Some countries, he said, "may believe our resolve has been corroded by the challenges we face at home and abroad. This would be a grave misconception."

Nazi Germany, Imperial Japan, Fascist Italy and the former Soviet Union all made that miscalculation, Gates said. "All paid the price. All are on the ash heap of history."

Gates' stop in Bahrain is the last stop on a frenetic, weeklong tour of the region, which included meetings with military commanders on the battlefields in Iraq and Afghanistan.

 
As the dust settles, more information and speculation comes out.

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/world/middle_east/article3022188.ece

From The Sunday Times
December 9, 2007
Iran ‘nuclear bombshell’ splits US
Backlash over intelligence U-turn
Sarah Baxter, Washington

For two days in London in February 2004, top American defence and intelligence officials huddled with senior officers from MI6. They were there to discuss Iraq’s missing weapons of mass destruction with General Ihor Smeshko, head of the Ukrainian secret service, but he also had some riveting information to pass on about Iran.

The Iranian regime, Smeshko revealed, was pestering Ukraine, a postSoviet nuclear power, for access to its nuclear technology.

The meeting with MI6 had been arranged by John Shaw, who was the Pentagon’s deputy undersecretary for international technology security.

“There was no doubt that the Iranians were focused on developing a nuclear weapons capability,” Shaw recalled last week. “It wasn’t about keeping the lights burning in Tehran.”

American intelligence agencies startled the world last week by judging “with high confidence” that while Tehran continued to enrich uranium – which could be used for nuclear power or bombs – it had halted its nuclear “weaponisation” programme in 2003, before the MI6 meeting.

The declassified summary of the National Intelligence Estimate (NIE) on Iran not only ran contrary to its insistence two years earlier that Iran was “determined” to develop nuclear weapons, but flew in the face of accepted facts among western intelligence agencies.

President George W Bush, who warned recently that a nuclear-armed Iran could provoke a third world war, was left with a dollop of egg on his face.

When Dick Cheney, the vice-president and leading Iran hawk, was briefed on the about-turn a couple of weeks ago, there was a “pretty vivid exchange” with intelligence officials in the White House, one participant told The New York Times.

According to an intelligence source, Cheney sought to block the NIE’s release, but was overruled.

Vincent Cannistraro, the CIA’s former counterterrorism chief, believes the view expressed by Robert Gates, the defence secretary, and Condoleezza Rice, the secretary of state, was: “Whatever the intelligence shows, it shows – we won’t influence it, but it should be released.”

In an interview last week, Cheney conceded that “there was a general belief that we all shared that it was important to put it out – that it was not likely to stay classified for long, anyway.” He added, “Everything leaks”, a wry admission of the in-fighting that has divided the Bush administration.

War with Iran now appears to be off the agenda and it will be difficult to persuade the international community to approve harsher United Nations sanctions against Iran. But was American intelligence really fooled for four years? Or is it being undermined from within?

Some American officials believe the NIE’s findings could present a historic opportunity to open direct negotiations with Tehran.

Robert Kagan, an influential neoconservative writer, argued that “with its policy tools broken, the Bush administration can sit around isolated for the next year. Or it can seize the initiative, and do the next administration a favour, by opening direct talks”.

But other neoconservatives and Iran hawks mounted a ferocious counterattack, insisting the report was payback by a trio of antiBush former state department officials, who opposed the Iraq war and sanctions on Iran.

David Wurmser, Cheney’s former Middle East adviser, charged: “One has to look at the authors of this report to judge how much it can really be banked on.”

The “guilty men” were named as Thomas Fingar, Kenneth Brill and Vann Van Diepen, all now in top US intelligence posts, who had seethed at Bush policies for years and were said to have executed a triumphant revenge.

One “very senior intelligence official” who was privy to the same classified information on Iran described the NIE’s conclusions as “a piece of crap”, according to Jed Babbin, a senior defence official under the first President George Bush. “The ‘high confidence’ that Iran had halted its nuclear weapons programme was not justified by the data he had seen,” Babbin said.

Yet there was an infusion of new information about Iran that persuaded all 16 American intelligence agencies to back the NIE.

Israeli sources told The Sunday Times that a key part of the jigsaw was supplied by General Ali Reza Asghari, 63, a former Iranian deputy defence minister who is believed to have defected after disappearing from his hotel room in Istanbul in February.

The Iranian regime accused Washington of kidnapping him, but western intelligence sources say he is in America of his own accord. His debriefing was so secretive that information went directly to the director of the CIA, rather than to senior officials. “People who would normally know, and should know, are completely out of the loop,” said one informed source.

American intelligence agencies also received a trove of information last summer, including intercepts of Iranian phone calls by GCHQ, the British listening station, which suggested that Iranian military officials were angered by a decision in late 2003 to halt a project to design nuclear weapons. The suspicion that the revelations might be a complex hoax were discounted.

After the report was released, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, Iran’s president, exulted that a “fatal blow” had been delivered to America’s war party.

Yet some American intelligence experts remain baffled by the black and white picture presented by the NIE. Former CIA official Paul Pillar, who helped to compile the 2005 NIE on Iran, believes the difference with the 2007 report has been greatly exaggerated.

“It’s described as a dramatic 180-degree reversal but it’s not. The key ‘pacing element’ about when Iran is going to get a nuclear weapon is the uranium enrichment issue and that hasn’t changed,” he said.

As before, the NIE suggests “with moderate confidence” that the Iranians could be capable of producing enough highly enriched uranium for a nuclear weapon by 2010-2015.

“You can differ with the president on his policy direction but the issue remains the same,” said Pillar. He maintains that the intelligence community has “shot itself in the foot” by oversimplifying the debate.

Additional reporting: Marie Colvin and Kayvon Biouki, Tehran
 
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2007/12/07/AR2007120702418_pf.html

Diving Deep, Unearthing a Surprise
How a Search for Iran's Nuclear Arms Program Turned Up an Unexpected Conclusion

By Peter Baker and Dafna Linzer
Washington Post Staff Writers
Saturday, December 8, 2007; A09


They call them "deep dives," special briefings for President Bush to meet with not just his advisers but also the analysts who study Iran in the bowels of the intelligence world. Starting last year, aides arranged a series of sessions for Bush to "get his hands dirty," in the White House vernacular for digging into intelligence to understand what is known and not known.

Preparing for what might be the defining foreign policy challenge of his final years in office, Bush was struck by the limited intelligence on Tehran's nuclear program and pressed for more, said officials familiar with the sessions. But if Bush hoped for solid evidence that Iran was trying to build nuclear bombs, what came back proved more surprising -- Iran did have a nuclear weapons program but shut it down four years ago.

The new report on Iran released this week underscored the fluid nature of U.S. intelligence and its uncomfortable marriage with the nation's foreign policy. Five years after the botched assessment of Iraq's weapons programs, the new information posed profound challenges to the Bush administration: How could officials be sure it was right this time? What would it mean for Bush's policy of international confrontation with Tehran? And should it be revealed to Congress, U.S. allies and the public at large?

While deeply sensitive to any suggestion of improperly influencing intelligence, White House officials were initially skeptical of the new data. "You want to make sure it's not disinformation," Bush said at a news conference. The intelligence agencies created a special "red team" of analysts who set out to determine whether the information could be fake. They concluded it was not.

As they digested the new findings, Bush and his aides chose to focus on the part that confirmed their suspicions -- that Iran previously had a secret weapons program and might still restart it. In their discussions at the White House, officials said, no one suggested Bush tone down his public rhetoric or change his policy.

Still, they understood the sensitivity of the new conclusions. At first, Mike McConnell, the director of national intelligence, decided to keep the new findings secret, but reluctantly reversed course in a flurry of discussions last weekend out of fear of leaks and charges of a coverup, officials said. At that point, only the Israelis had gotten a heads-up. Congress, European allies and the U.N. nuclear watchdog agency were not given full briefings about the report until hours before it was released.

That irritated European allies. "The administration is going to pay a price for not allowing allies in on it at an earlier date," said Robert J. Einhorn, a former State Department nonproliferation official. "The French had carried the administration's water on this issue and really went out on a limb to get the European Union to adopt tough sanctions. And now the rug has been pulled out from under them."

The origin of the latest intelligence can be traced to the summer of 2004, when an Iranian man turned up in Turkey with a laptop computer and the phone number of a German intelligence officer. He called the number, and within 24 hours, analysts at CIA headquarters in Langley were poring over thousands of pages of drawings and information stored on the computer indicating that Iran had been trying to retrofit its longest-range missile, the Shahab III, to carry a nuclear payload. It was designated Project 1-11 and seemed to confirm a nuclear weapons program.

The information retrieved from the laptop formed the backbone of a National Intelligence Estimate issued in 2005 that declared "with high confidence" that Iran was working to build a bomb. Armed with that, the Bush administration spent the past two years pressing European allies, Russia and China to sanction Iran if it did not give up its uranium enrichment program, despite Tehran's insistence that it was only for civilian energy.

With tension rising, Congress asked last year for a new NIE. Bush was pushing for more information as well during his deep-dive sessions. "We've got to get more information on Iran so we know what they're up to," one official paraphrased Bush saying.

As analysts scrambled to finish by April, they were reaching the conclusion that Iran was still a decade away from nuclear weapons, senior intelligence and administration officials said. For three years, the intelligence community had not obtained new information on Project 1-11, vexing administration officials who worried that a cold trail would lead to doubts about the reliability of the laptop's information. "They just wouldn't budge," complained one such official, who declined to be identified to speak candidly.

By June, analysts had an almost complete draft of a new NIE, and it provoked a sharp debate. "The less data you have, the more you argue," said a source familiar with the discussions. Some officials pressed the CIA's Iran desk to follow up on Project 1-11. CIA Director Michael V. Hayden and National Security Agency Director Keith B. Alexander responded by directing vast manpower and technology toward spying on Iranians who may have been involved in the warhead effort.

With Bush pressing for more information, the intelligence community finally came up with something new -- a series of communications intercepts, including snippets of conversations between key Iranian officials, one of them a military officer whose name appeared on the laptop. Two sources said the Iranians complained that the nuclear weapons program had been shuttered four years earlier and argued about whether it would ever be restarted.

There had been clues for those willing to see them. For one thing, the laptop contained no new drawings on its hard drive after February 2003, said officials familiar with it. And during a dinner in Tehran with visiting American experts in 2005, Iranian leaders Hashemi Rafsanjani and Hassan Rowhani flatly declared that the country's nuclear weapons research had been halted because Iran felt it did not need the actual bombs, only the ability to show the world it could.

"Look, as long as we can enrich uranium and master the [nuclear] fuel cycle, we don't need anything else," Rafsanjani said at the dinner, according to George Perkovich of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. "Our neighbors will be able to draw the proper conclusions."

The evolving NIE bore the imprint of McConnell and his deputies, Thomas Fingar and Donald M. Kerr, friends with decades of national security experience. Fingar in 2005 began changing how information was gathered, filtered and analyzed, and McConnell formalized the new rules after becoming director of national intelligence in February. "He quickly got the mantra down: 'We must make a clear distinction between what we know and don't know and what we judge to be the case,' " said an official present at the time.

As a result, the internal debate over the meaning of the new Iran intelligence was intense and often contentious, with different agencies and individuals clashing over everything from the fine points to the broad conclusions, participants said.

McConnell told Bush about the new information in August during a daily intelligence briefing, but did not provide much detail or anything on paper, White House officials said. Bush periodically asked McConnell for updates. "The president and his advisers were regularly and continuously appraised on new information as we acquired it," an intelligence official said.

Officials also informed House intelligence committee members and key Senate intelligence committee staff members in September, although they were circumspect. "They said, 'We've got new information. We want to make sure we get this thing as close to right as possible,' " said Rep. Peter Hoekstra (Mich.), the House panel's senior Republican.

One intelligence official said Bush's team expressed concern that the intercepts might be disinformation, so analysts tested that thesis. "They tried to figure out what exactly it would take to perpetrate that kind of deception, how many people would be involved, how they would go about doing it, when it would have been set up and so forth," the official said. Analysts "scrubbed and rescrubbed" more than 1,000 pieces of evidence but concluded Iran's program really had been shut down.

A new draft NIE was prepared in September that was radically different from the June version. As part of the testing process, Hayden and his deputy, Stephen Kappes, convened a murder board of sorts, grilling analysts about their data and conclusions. They "had them in a room and it was kind of 'show me,' " one official said. "And they were a skeptical audience." A similar session was conducted in front of Fingar in late October or early November.

By mid-November, the agencies were ready to deliver their conclusions to the White House. Intelligence officials gave a preliminary briefing Nov. 15 in the Situation Room to Vice President Cheney, national security adviser Stephen J. Hadley and other senior officials.

The process was climaxing just as Bush was convening a Middle East peace conference in Annapolis, a meeting designed at least in part to rally the region against Iran. No one told participants about the new information, but on the same day they were gathering in Annapolis on Nov. 27, the National Intelligence Board met to finalize the new NIE. McConnell and others briefed Bush and Cheney the next day. Even though intelligence officials planned to keep it from the public, Bush later that day passed it on to Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert and Cheney told Defense Minister Ehud Barak.

By last weekend, an intense discussion broke out about whether to keep it secret. "We knew it would leak, so honesty required that we get this out ahead, to prevent it from appearing to be cherry picking," said a top intelligence official. So McConnell reversed himself, and analysts scrambled over the weekend to draft a declassified version.

On Monday, Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice called counterparts in Britain, France, Germany, Russia and China, which have been negotiating a new set of sanctions against Iran. Foreign officials groused about how it was handled. Had they known before the summit, a senior Israeli official said, "I'm not sure we would have shown up."

Among those Kerr called that morning was Hoekstra. He was exasperated at the turnaround and not at all persuaded. To him, it was another example of the tenuous nature of intelligence. "This is not about I don't like the conclusion," he said. "We didn't know enough in 2005, and we don't know enough today."

Staff writers Walter Pincus, Joby Warrick and Robin Wright contributed to this report.
 
Intention:
...And during a dinner in Tehran with visiting American experts in 2005, Iranian leaders Hashemi Rafsanjani and Hassan Rowhani flatly declared that the country's nuclear weapons research had been halted because Iran felt it did not need the actual bombs, only the ability to show the world it could.

"Look, as long as we can enrich uranium and master the [nuclear] fuel cycle, we don't need anything else," Rafsanjani said at the dinner, according to George Perkovich of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. "Our neighbors will be able to draw the proper conclusions."

Capability:
As analysts scrambled to finish by April, they were reaching the conclusion that Iran was still a decade away from nuclear weapons


Problems:

The evolving NIE bore the imprint of McConnell and his deputies, Thomas Fingar and Donald M. Kerr, friends with decades of national security experience. Fingar in 2005 began changing how information was gathered, filtered and analyzed, and McConnell formalized the new rules after becoming director of national intelligence in February.

"The less data you have, the more you argue,"

"We didn't know enough in 2005, and we don't know enough today."

And, of course, the timing........this thing was in the works since April and Fingar's process demanded that the most damaging reveal time was the only possible release date.






 
The British are skeptical as well

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/main.jhtml?xml=/news/2007/12/09/wiran109.xml

Iran 'hoodwinked' CIA over nuclear plans

By Tim Shipman in Washington, Philip Sherwell and Carolynne Wheeler
Last Updated: 2:13am GMT 10/12/2007

British spy chiefs have grave doubts that Iran has mothballed its nuclear weapons programme, as a US intelligence report claimed last week, and believe the CIA has been hoodwinked by Teheran.

Iran 'hoodwinked' CIA over nuclear plans
Analysts believe that Iranian staff, knowing their phones were tapped, deliberately gave misinformation

The timing of the CIA report has also provoked fury in the British Government, where officials believe it has undermined efforts to impose tough new sanctions on Iran and made an Israeli attack on its nuclear facilities more likely.

The security services in London want concrete evidence to allay concerns that the Islamic state has fed disinformation to the CIA.

The report used new evidence - including human sources, wireless intercepts and evidence from an Iranian defector - to conclude that Teheran suspended the bomb-making side of its nuclear programme in 2003. But British intelligence is concerned that US spy chiefs were so determined to avoid giving President Bush a reason to go to war - as their reports on Saddam Hussein's weapons programmes did in Iraq - that they got it wrong this time.

A senior British official delivered a withering assessment of US intelligence-gathering abilities in the Middle East and revealed that British spies shared the concerns of Israeli defence chiefs that Iran was still pursuing nuclear weapons.
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The source said British analysts believed that Iranian nuclear staff, knowing their phones were tapped, deliberately gave misinformation. "We are sceptical. We want to know what the basis of it is, where did it come from? Was it on the basis of the defector? Was it on the basis of the intercept material? They say things on the phone because they know we are up on the phones. They say black is white. They will say anything to throw us off.

"It's not as if the American intelligence agencies are regarded as brilliant performers in that region. They got badly burned over Iraq."

A US intelligence source has revealed that some American spies share the concerns of the British and the Israelis. "Many middle- ranking CIA veterans believe Iran is still committed to producing nuclear weapons and are concerned that the agency lost a number of its best sources in Iran in 2004," the official said.

The Foreign Office is studying a new text of a third United Nations Security Council resolution that would impose tough travel bans on regime figures and penalise banks that do business with Iran.

But diplomats say the chances of winning Chinese and Russian support for the move are in freefall. A Western diplomat said: "It's created a lot of difficulties because of the timing, just as we were about to go for a third resolution."

Bruce Reidel, who spent 25 years on the Middle East desks at the CIA and the National Security Council, said: "By going public they have embarrassed our friends, particularly the British and the Israelis. They have given our foes insights into our most secret intelligence and taken most of the options off the table."

Ephraim Sneh, until recently Israel's deputy minister of defence, warned that military action would be the only option if the world community did not institute robust sanctions. "No one can rule out with high confidence that somewhere in Iran, 70 times the size of Israel, there is one lab working on the weapons programme," Mr Sneh told The Sunday Telegraph.

"[Military action] is not a desired option; it is a last resort. That's why sanctions are so important. We have to urge the international community to be serious about sanctions and to take necessary measures to defend the civilian population."

Information appearing on telegraph.co.uk is the copyright of Telegraph Media Group Limited and must not be reproduced in any medium without licence. For the full copyright statement see Copyright
 
This is curious ......if true
A swing by the Mullahs away from Ahmadinejad and back to Rafsanjani?  I wonder if Rafsanjanin is more "palatable" to the Whitehouse than Ahmadinejad?

Via The Gateway Pundit
Link on Headline

Paper Hints at Ahmadinejad Prosecution
Mahboubeh Niknahad - 2007.12.03

President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad’s last week speech at the Science and Technology ‎University, in which he made unprecedented accusations against the faction close to ‎Hashemi Rafsanjani, has raised an uproar among clerics close to Rafsanjani. Yesterday, ‎the former head of the Supreme National Security Council, Hassan Rohani, accused the ‎president of breaking the law by assuming guilt before trial, and the conservative ‎‎“Jomhouri Eslami” daily called for Ahmadinejad’s prosecution in its main editorial. ‎

Last Friday, Hojattoleslam Doagoo, Shemiran’s Friday prayer leader, who is known for ‎his attacks on reformists, criticized Ahmadinejad and accused him of taking credit for ‎Rafsanjani’s achievements in reinitiating Iran’s nuclear program following the Iran-Iraq ‎War. ‎

Ahmadinejad and his supporters have increased their attacks on the faction close to ‎Rafsanjani in recent days. During his speech at the Science and Technology University, ‎Ahmadinejad accused the Azad University system – of which Rafsanjani is a board ‎member – of corruption and criticized “domestic opponents” of pressuring the judiciary ‎into clearing espionage charges against former top nuclear negotiator, Mousavian. ‎

Officials from the Azad University and judiciary immediately denied Ahmadinejad’s ‎accusations. The Azad University released a statement accusing Ahmadinejad of ‎presenting false and fabricated figures, and officials from the judiciary denied having ‎been pressured to clear Mousavian of charges. ‎

In its main editorial yesterday, Jomhouri Eslami daily published its harshest attacks yet ‎on President Ahmadinejad. The daily’s editorial was even harsher than one published a ‎few months ago in which Ahmadinejad was accused of lacking a “stable behavior.” ‎

The Jomhouri Eslami daily is one of the oldest papers in the Islamic Republic and is ‎known to be affiliated closely with the supreme leader. ‎

In its editorial yesterday, Jomhouri Eslami criticized the judiciary for not defending the ‎reputation of people against false accusations, implicitly calling for Ahmadinejad’s ‎prosecution. The editorial criticized Ahmadinejad’s remarks about the Azad University ‎and Mousavian’s case and accused the President of interfering in the affairs of the ‎judiciary and undermining the principle of separation of powers. ‎

Ahmadinejad’s supporters have not yet responded to the recent attacks on Ahmadinejad. ‎Unless high Islamic Republic officials intrude and force a compromise like last time, it is ‎unlikely that Ahmadinejad will drop his calls for the prosecution of Azad University ‎officials. ‎
 
Question: Is Bush craftier than I allowed?
By authorizing the release of this NIE has he merely said to the world "See what I have to put up with?"
I find it curious that more women than men still fear that Iran is working towards the Bomb.  Perhaps the Dems shouldn't have been so quick to start laughing.

From Rasmussen Reports

Just 18% Believe Iran has Stopped Nuclear Weapons Development Program
Friday, December 07, 2007

Just 18% of American voters believe that Iran has halted its nuclear weapons program. The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey found that 66% disagree and say Iran has not stopped its nuclear weapons program. Twenty-one percent (21%) of men believe Iran has stopped the weapons development along with 16% of women (see crosstabs).

The survey was conducted following release of a government report saying that Iran halted its nuclear weapons development program in 2003.

The Rasmussen Reports survey also found that 67% of American voters believe that Iran remains a threat to the national security of the United States. Only 19% disagree while 14% are not sure.

Fifty-nine percent (59%) believe that the United States should continue sanctions against Iran. Twenty percent (20%) disagree and 21% are not sure.

Forty-seven percent (47%) believe it is Very Likely that Iran will develop nuclear weapons in the future and another 34% believe Iran is Somewhat Likely to do so.

Twenty-nine percent (29%) of liberal voters believe that Iran has stopped its weapons program but 54% disagree.

Among conservatives, just 8% believe Iran has stopped and 81% disagree.

Despite the Iranian government's protestations to the contrary, an earlier survey found that 67% believed that Iran’s nuclear program is intended to develop nuclear weapons rather than nuclear energy.

Another survey found that, most voters doubt the United States can count on its European allies when dealing with Iran. Just 1% of Americans view Iran as an ally of the United States. Sixty-two percent (62%) believe that Iran sponsors terrorist activities against the United States.

Only 6% disagree and 32% are not sure.

See survey questions and toplines. Crosstabs available for Premium Members only.

Rasmussen Reports is an electronic publishing firm specializing in the collection, publication, and distribution of public opinion polling information.

The Rasmussen Reports ElectionEdge™ Premium Service for Election 2008 offers the most comprehensive public opinion coverage ever provided for a Presidential election.

Scott Rasmussen, president of Rasmussen Reports, has been an independent pollster for more than a decade
 
In all this talk about an Iranian nuclear weapons program, have anyone hear thought about Iran's capabilities when it comes to other kinds of WMD- namely biological and chemical weapons?  One such Iraqi attack during Saddam's rule against the Kurds in Northern Iraq comes to mind; didn't both sides use Chemical/biological weapons during the Iran-Iraq War of the 1980s?

Hopefully Ahmedinijerk would think twice before using the Q'ods force or the Badr Corps or any of these Iranian govt.-backed groups to use such weapons in the even of war with the US and its allies.

Still, correct me if I'm wrong, but wasn't Iran at least developing such multi-stage delivery systems for such weapons in the same fashion North Korea tested its delivery systems, though certainly with not same amount of press coverage the DPRK gave each of its missile tests? The Iraqi Scud attacks on Israel in the First Gulf War of the early 1990s, fortunately shot down by US Patriot Missile batteries, also come to mind.


 
CougarDaddy said:
The Iraqi Scud attacks on Israel in the First Gulf War of the early 1990s, fortunately shot down by US Patriot Missile batteries, also come to mind.

Well, lets just be clear here. Although the missiles were in fact hit ( or by proximity) by the Patriots, it only served to demonstrate the issues that exist with trying to defend against SS missiles in the terminal stage of flight. The missiles were destroyed but the warheads kept going, often hitting populated areas.
 
Sign of Success?  Might be a bit tainted in that it was announced from an Egyptian jail cell.  Still...........

Zawahri's mentor says Qaeda to blame for Afghan invasion
Egypt's Jihad Group leader wants end to violence


Article Link

Review of position

DUBAI (AlArabiya.net)

The leader of an Islamic fundamentalist group in Egypt that was responsible for a string of terror attacks in the1980s and 1990s has publicly severed his ties with al-Qaeda and denounced its leaders.

Sayed Imam, the founder and first emir of Egypt's Jihad Group, said al-Qaeda is to blame for the invasion of Afghanistan, which came as a direct reaction to the Sept. 11 attacks.

Speaking to the London-based daily Al-Hayat from his high-security prison cell in Cairo, Imam lashed out at al-Qaeda No. 2, Ayman Al-Zawahiri, his student and long-time friend who once led the group.

"I didn't know him for what he really is until the assassination of President Anwar Al-Sadat," said Imam, whose relationship with Zawahiri goes back some 30 years. "He was behind the arrest of many of his friends and testified against them in the investigations," he said.

The Jihad Group was partly responsible for killing former Egyptian President Anwar Sadat in 1981.

When they re-established the Jihad Group in Afghanistan, Zawahiri brought youth from Egypt and asked Imam to be their spiritual guide.

"I agreed, but bit by bit their problems grew with their numbers, and Zawahiri kept washing his hands of them and involving me in all the problems. That is why Egyptian authorities considered me the Emir while my job was only spiritual guidance."

Imam severed ties with Al-Zawahiri and the whole group in 1992 after they insisted on carrying out terror attacks in Egypt.

"He and his followers betrayed Mullah Omar and dragged the U.S. to Afghanistan to topple the Taliban regime."

Imam said that the Egyptians are the actual founders of Al-Qaeda and that they tried to tone down bin Laden's extremes.

"Al-Qaeda has no ideology apart from bin Laden's personal whims. Whoever objects gets kicked out. This approach is what led to the Sept. 11 attacks.

Imam added that the Jihad decided to dismiss Al-Zawahiri when he joined the International Front for Fighting Jews and Crusaders in 1998: "This was an explicit pact between him and bin Laden."

The Jihad Group is publishing this "review of its positions" in two Arabic language newspapers, renouncing violent activities and calling for ceasing all armed operations in Egypt and in other Arab or Muslim countries.

Imam was the first Emir (leader) of Jihad in the 1970s, as well as the first leader of an armed cell who decided to fight fellow Muslims. He authored "The Principle Book for Preparations," a reference book that al-Qaeda uses to justify its operations and win new recruits on religious grounds.

The Jihad Group is responsible for a bloody campaign against the authoritarian regime of President Hosni Mubarak in the1980s and 1990s that drew in hundreds of young recruits and cost dozens of lives.

For decades, Imam's writings have also formed the backbone for the philosophical arguments touted by several other armed groups to validate their attacks.

But in the new review, he said his group "erred enormously from an Islamic point of view" by allowing "killing based on nationality, color of skin and hair or based on religious doctrine."

"Those are actually the methods of secular revolutionaries and not the methods of Islam. There's no such a thing as 'the goal justifies the means' in Islam, even when the goals are noble are legitimate. Muslims worship God by using legitimate methods too," he wrote. 

Imam is now contending that those who target innocent people are working outside the parameters of Sharia, or Islamic law.


"They place their own desires and will before that of Allah's," he wrote in this new treatise.

Imam said he was prompted to write the review after noticing persistent "violations" by members of the Jihad Group in its decades-long fight with authorities -- a fight that has included excessive bloodshed, random killings and targeting of civilians.

The al-Jihad Group has traditionally been the most militant of the Islamic groups, refusing for the past 10 years to follow in the foot-steps of al-Gamaa al-Islamia, another militant group that renounced violence years ago.

This change has dealt a severe blow to al-Qaeda, whose deputy chief, Zawahri, headed the al-Jihad group in Afghanistan after his teacher, Imam, was arrested in Egypt.

Al-Zawahri is widely expected to come out strongly against the plan known as "the nonviolent initiative."

The documents that are being serialized simultaneously in a local newspaper and a Kuwait newspaper are also important because they are expected to rekindle a debate in the Muslim world that is likely to include academic scholars, religious scholars and political activists regarding the methods employed by some of the militant groups and the true meaning of armed Jihad in Islam.


(Translated from Arabic by Sonia Farid).



 
Gentlemen,

Patriots aside, haven't the USN's SM2 SAM systems on a number of their warships been tested for a similar task, as demonstrated with the interception of a simulated ICBM by an SM2 fired from a USN cruiser just off Hawaii? Please correct me if I'm wrong.

BTW, here's yet another update on the continuing US approach with Iran/the latest meeting to be held between the two nations.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/22179472/

MSNBC.com
US, Iran to meet on Iraq security
Foreign Minister Hoshiyar Zebari says meeting to be held Dec. 18
Reuters
updated 2:10 a.m. PT, Mon., Dec. 10, 2007
BAGHDAD - U.S. and Iranian officials will hold another round of talks on Iraq's security on Dec. 18, Iraqi Foreign Minister Hoshiyar Zebari said on Monday.

"As for the U.S.-Iran talks, we have agreement from both sides to resume the fourth round of talks. This is a fact and we've heard it as early as yesterday," Zebari told a news conference in Baghdad.

"We have a new date. That is the 18th of December. This will be a technical meeting, a follow-up to the last meeting of security experts, not at the level of the ambassadors but (deputy chiefs of missions) and security experts," he said.

U.S. and Iranian officials have met three times during the past year in Baghdad to discuss security in Iraq in talks arranged by the Iraqi government.

Washington has accused Iran of supplying weapons and training for militias in Iraq, including bombs and missiles used to kill U.S. troops, although U.S. forces say attacks that they link to Iran have declined over the past few months.

Tehran denies the accusations.

This year's Iranian-U.S. talks on Iraq's security situation eased a diplomatic freeze that lasted almost three decades, even though Tehran and Washington are embroiled in a row over Iran's nuclear ambitions.


Copyright 2007 Reuters. Click for restrictions.
URL: http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/22179472/
© 2007 MSNBC.com
 
Iran has tested their new ballictic missile called the Ashoura with a 2000-2500km range which puts Warsaw and Moscow in range of Iran. Its clear that they keep working on longer range missiles I wonder why ?
 
CougarDaddy said:
Patriots aside, 

My response not what you wanted to hear or what ?

haven't the USN's SM2 SAM systems on a number of their warships been tested for a similar task, as demonstrated with the interception of a simulated ICBM by an SM2 fired from a USN cruiser just off Hawaii? Please correct me if I'm wrong.
Patriot or SM-2, the problem remains the same. Unless the target ICBM/IRBM/MRBM/whateverBM is hit in the boost phase, the warhead (unless hit by some gigantic stroke of luck) will continue to the ground. It may not hit its intended target but it will hit something. If the warhead is nuclear, then its going to do alot of damage regardless. An ICBM worthy of the name has a MIRV payload with decoys complicating the problem of interception in the terminal phase.
 
CDNAviator,

Thanks for your responses. Hopefully the Americans can work out the problem with getting the warhead as well, aside from just hitting the missile carrying the warheads and decoys. It's good there is at least one system that can possibly intercept ICBMs out there, which is better than nothing. Still, I haven't heard about the airborne laser lately, which makes me wonder...

 
Well, since US Intelligence was wrong on Iraq, it's probably wrong again and Iran is overflowing with warheads it just can't wait to launch in the name of the 12th Imam.  The Bush Administration can safely launch a campaign aimed at furthering democracy in the Mid-East knowing that Iran does indeed possess WMD's.  Hey, maybe they can even get Colin Powell to head to the UN to sell it to the International Community - huzzah!
 
I'm volunteering Infanteer to lead the Advance to Contact into Iran to check out all its peaceful nuclear sites... ;D
 
What difference does it make anyhow. The Russians have just given them fuel......

http://www.cnn.com/2007/WORLD/meast/12/17/russia.iran/index.html
 
Newt Gingrich gave a pretty clear analysis of the situation in this speech:

http://www.jerrypournelle.com/mail/mail496.html#Newt

Sleepwalking Into a Nightmare

Speech by Newt Gingrich

Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich delivered the following remarks to a Jewish National Fund meeting Nov. 15 at the Selig Center.

I just want to talk to you from the heart for a few minutes and share with you where I think we are.

I think it is very stark. I don't think it is yet desperate, but it is very stark. And if I had a title for today's talk, it would be sleepwalking into a nightmare. 'Cause that's what I think we're doing.

I gave a speech at the American Enterprise Institute Sept. 10th at which I gave an alternative history of the last six years, because the more I thought about how much we're failing, the more I concluded you couldn't just nitpick individual places and talk about individual changes because it didn't capture the scale of the disaster. And I had been particularly impressed by a new book that came out called "Troublesome Young Men," which is a study of the younger Conservatives who opposed appeasement in the 1930s and who took on Chamberlain. It's a very revealing book and a very powerful book because we tend to look backwards and we tend to overstate Churchill's role in that period. And we tend to understate what a serious and conscientious and thoughtful effort appeasement was and that it was the direct and deliberate policy of very powerful and very willful people. We tend to think of it as a psychological weakness, as though Chamberlain was somehow craven. He wasn't craven. Chamberlain had a very clear vision of the world, and he was very ruthless domestically. And they believed so deeply in avoiding war with Germany that as late as the spring of 1940, when they are six months or seven months into they war, they are dropping leaflets instead of bombs on the Rohr, and they are urging the British news media not to publish anti-German stories because they don't want to offend the German people. And you read this book, and it makes you want to weep because, interestingly, the younger Tories who were most opposed to appeasement were the combat veterans of World War I, who had lost all of their friends in the war but who understood that the failure of appeasement would result in a worse war and that the longer you lied about reality, the greater the disaster.

And they were severely punished and isolated by Chamberlain and the Conservative machine, and as I read that, I realized that that's really where we are today. Our current problem is tragic. You have an administration whose policy is inadequate being opposed by a political Left whose policy is worse, and you have nobody prepared to talk about the policy we need. Because we are told if you are for a strong America, you should back the Bush policy even if it's inadequate, and so you end up making an argument in favor of something that can't work. So your choice is to defend something which isn't working or to oppose it by being for an even weaker policy. So this is a catastrophe for this country and a catastrophe for freedom around the world. Because we have refused to be honest about the scale of the prob lem.

Let me work back. I'm going to get to Iran since that's the topic, but I'm going to get to it eventually.

Let me work back from Pakistan. The dictatorship in Pakistan has never had control over Wiziristan. Not for a day. So we've now spent six years since 9/11 with a sanctuary for al Qaeda and a sanctuary for the Taliban, and every time we pick up people in Great Britain who are terrorists, they were trained in Pakistan.

And our answer is to praise Musharraf because at least he's not as bad as the others. But the truth is Musharraf has not gotten control of terrorism in Pakistan. Musharraf doesn't have full control over his own government. The odds are even money we're going to drift into a disastrous dictatorship at some point in Pakistan. And while we worry about the Iranians acquiring a nuclear weapon, the Pakistanis already have 'em, So why would you feel secure in a world where you could presently have an Islamist dictatorship in Pakistan with a hundred-plus nuclear weapons? What's our grand strategy for that?

Then you look at Afghanistan. Here's a country that's small, poor, isolated, and in six years we have not been able to build roads, create economic opportunity, wean people off of growing drugs. A third of the GDP is from drugs. We haven't been able to end the sanctuary for the Taliban in Pakistan. And I know of no case historically where you defeat a guerrilla movement if it has a sanctuary. So the people who rely on the West are out-bribed by the criminals, outgunned by the criminals, and faced with a militant force across the border which practiced earlier defeating the Soviet empire and which has a time horizon of three or four generations. NATO has a time horizon of each quarter or at best a year, facing an opponent whose time horizon is literally three or four generations. It's a total mismatch.

Then you come to the direct threat to the United States, which is al Qaeda. Which, by the way, we just published polls. One of the sites I commend to you is AmericanSolutions.com. Last Wednesday we posted six national surveys, $428,000 worth of data. We gave it away. I found myself in the unique position of calling Howard Dean to tell him I was giving him $400,000 worth of polling. We have given it away to both Democrats and Republicans. It is fundamentally different from the national news media. When asked the question "Do we have an obligation to defend the United States and her allies?" the answer is 85 percent yes. When asked a further question "Should we defeat our enemies?" ? it's very strong language ? the answer i s 75% yes, 75 to 16.

The complaint about Iraq is a performance complaint, not a values complaint.

When asked whether or not al Qaeda is a threat, 89% of the country says yes. And they think you have to defeat it, you can't negotiate with it. So now let's look at al Qaeda and the rise of Islamist terrorism.

And let's be honest: What's the primary source of money for al Qaeda? It's you, re-circulated through Saudi Arabia. Because we have no national energy strategy, when clearly if you really cared about liberating the United States from the Middle East and if you really cared about the survival of Israel, one of your highest goals would be to move to a hydrogen economy and to eliminate petroleum as a primary source of energy.

Part 2 to follow
 
Newt Gingrich's speech, part 2:

http://www.jerrypournelle.com/mail/mail496.html#Newt

Now that's what a serious national strategy would look like, but that would require real change.

So then you look at Saudi Arabia. The fact that we tolerate a country saying no Christian and no Jew can go to Mecca, and we start with the presumption that that's true while they attack Israel for being a religious state is a sign of our timidity, our confusion, our cowardice that is stunning.

It's not complicated. We're inviting Saudi Arabia to come to Annapolis to talk about rights for Palestinians when nobody is saying, "Let's talk about rights for Christians and Jews in Saudi Arabia. Let's talk about rights for women in Saudi Arabia."

So we accept this totally one-sided definition of the world in which our enemies can cheerfully lie on television every day, and we don't even have the nerve to insist on the truth. We pretend their lies are reasonable. This is a very fundamental problem. And if you look at who some of the largest owners of some of our largest banks are today, they're Saudis.

You keep pumping billions of dollars a year into countries like Venezuela, Iran and Saudi Arabia, and Russia, and you are presently going to have created people who oppose you who have lots of money. And they're then going to come back to your own country and finance, for example, Arab study institutes whose only requirement is that they never tell the truth. So you have all sorts of Ph.D.s who now show up quite cheerfully prepared to say whatever it is that makes their funders happy ? in the name, of course, of academic freedom. So why wouldn't Columbia host a gen ocidal madman? It's just part of political correctness. I mean, Ahmadinejad may say terrible things, he may lock up students, he may kill journalists, he may say, "We should wipe out Israel," he may say, "We should defeat the United States," but after all, what has he done that's inappropriate? What has he done that wouldn't be repeated at a Hollywood cocktail party or a nice gathering in Europe?

And nobody says this is totally, utterly, absolutely unacceptable. Why is it that the number one threat in intelligence movies is the CIA?

I happened the other night to be watching an old movie, ?To Live and Die in L.A.,? which is about counterfeiting. But the movie starts with a Secret Service agent who is defending Ronald Reagan in 1985, and the person he is defending Ronald Reagan from is a suicide bomber who is actually, overtly a Muslim fanatic. Now, six years after 9/11, you could not get that scene made in Hollywood today.

Just look at the movies. Why is it that the bad person is either a Right-wing crazed billionaire, or the CIA as a government agency? Go look at "The Bourne Ultimatum." Or a movie like the one that George Clooney made, which was an absolute lie, in which it implied that if you were a reformist Arab prince, that probably the CIA would kill you. It's a total lie. We actually have SEALs protecting people all over the world. We actually risk American lives protecting reformers all over the world, and yet Hollywood can't bring itself to tell the truth, (a) because it's ideologically so opposed to the American government and the American military, and (b), because it's terrified that if it said something really openly, honestly true about Muslim terrorists, they might show up in Hollywood. And you might have somebody killed as the Dutch producer was killed.

And so we're living a life of cowardice, and in that life of cowardice we're sleepwalking into a nightmare.

And then you come to Iran. There's a terrific book. Mark Bowden is a remarkable writer who wrote "Black Hawk Down," has enormous personal courage. He's a Philadelphia newspaper writer, actually got the money out of the Philadelphia newspaper to go to Somalia to interview the Somalian side of "Black Hawk Down." It's a remarkable achievement. Tells a great story about getting to Somalia, paying lots of cash, having the local warlord protect him, and after about two weeks the warlord came to him and said, "You know, we've decided that we're very uncomfortable with you being here, and you should leave."

And so he goes to the hotel, where he is the only hard-currency guest, and says, "I've got to check out two weeks early because the warlord has told me that he no longer will protect me." And the hotel owner, who wants to keep his only hard-currency guest, says, "Well, why are you listening to him? He's not the government. There is no government." And Bowden says, "Well, what will I do?" And he says, "You hire a bigger warlord with more guns," which he did. But then he could only stay one week because he ran out of money.

But this is a guy with real courage. I mean, imagine trying to go out and be a journalist in that kind of world, OK? So Bowden came back and wrote "Guests of the Ayatollah," which is the Iranian hostage of 1979, which he entitled, "The First Shots in Iran's War Against America." So in the Bowden worldview, the current Iranian dictatorship has been at war with the United States since 1979. Violated international law. Every conceivable tenet of international law was violated when they seized the American Embassy and they seized the diplomats. Killed Americans in Lebanon in the early '80s. Killed Americans at Khobar Towers in '95 and had the Clinton administration deliberately avoid revealing the information, as Louis Freeh, the director of the FBI, has said publicly, because they didn't want to have to confront the Iranian complicity.

And so you have an Iranian regime which is cited annually as the leading supporter of state terrorism in the world. Every year the State Department says that. It's an extraordinary act of lucidity on the part of an institution which seeks to avoid it as often as possible.

And you have Gen. Petraeus come to the U.S. Congress and say publicly in an open session, "The Iranians are waging a proxy war against Americans in Iraq."

I was so deeply offended by this, it's hard for me to express it without sounding irrational. I'm an Army brat. My dad served 27 years in the infantry. The idea that an American general would come to the American Congress, testify in public that our young men and women are being killed by Iran, and we have done nothing, I find absolutely abhorrent.

So I'm preparing to come and talk today. I got up this morning, and a friend had sent me yesterday's Jerusalem Post editorial, which if you haven't read, I recommend to you. It has, for example, the following quote: "On Monday, chief Palestinian negotiator Saeb Erekat said, 'The problem of the content of the document setting out joint principles for peace-making post-Annapolis has not been resolved. One of the more pressing problems is the Zionist regime's insistence on being recognized as a Jewish state. We will not agree to recognize Israel as a Jewish state. There is no country in the world where religious and national identities are intertwined.' "

What truly bothers me is the shallowness and the sophistry of the Western governments, starting with our own. When a person says to you, "I don't recognize that you exist," you don't start a negotiation. The person says, "I literally do not recognize" and then lies to you. I mean the first thing you say to this guy is "Terrific. Let's go visit Mecca. Since clearly there's no other state except Israel that is based on religion, the fact that I happen to be Christian won't bother anybody." And then he'll say, "Well, that's different."

We tolerate this. We have created our own nightmare because we refuse to tell the truth. We refuse to tell the truth to our politicians. Our State Department refuses to tell the truth to the country. If the president of the United States, and again, we're now so bitterly partisan, we're so committed to red vs. blue hostility, that George W. Bush doesn't have the capacity to give an address from the Oval Office that has any meaning for half the country. And the anti-war Left is so strong in the Democratic primary that I think it's almost impossible for any Democratic presidential candidate to tell the truth about the situation.

And so the Republicans are isolated and trying to defend incompetence. The Democrats are isolated and trying to find a way to say, "I'm really for strength as long as I can have peace, but I'd really like to have peace, except I don't want to recognize these people who aren't very peaceful."

I just want to share with you, as a grandfather, as a citizen, as a historian, as somebody who was once speaker of the House, this is a serious national crisis. This is 1935 or 1936, and it's getting worse every year.

None of our enemies are confused. Our enemies don't get up each morning and go, "Oh, gosh, I think I'll have an existential crisis of identity in which I will try to think through whether or not we can be friends while you're killing me." Our enemies get up every morning and say, "We hate the West. We hate freedom." They would not allow a meeting with women in the room.

I was once interviewed by a BBC reporter, a nice young lady who was only about as anti-American as she had to be to keep her job. Since it was a live interview, I turned to her halfway through the interview and I said, "Do you like your job?" And it was summertime, and she's wearing a short-sleeve dress. And she said, "Well, yes." She was confused because I had just reversed roles. I said, "Well, then you should hope we win." She said, "What do you mean?" And I said, "Well, if the enemy wins, you won't be allowed to be on television."

I don't know how to explain it any simpler than that.

Now what do we need?

We need first of all to recognize this is a real war. Our enemies are peaceful when they're weak, are ruthless when they're strong, demand mercy when they're losing, show no mercy when they're winning. They understand exactly what this is, and anybody who reads Sun Tzu will understand exactly what we're living through. This is a total war. One side is going to win. One side is going to lose. You'll be able to tell who won and who lost by who's still standing. Most of Islam is not in this war, but most of Islam isn't going to stop this war. They're just going to sit to one side and tell you how sorry they are that this happened. We had better design grand strategies that are radically bigger and radically tougher and radically more honest than anything currently going on, and that includes winning the argument in Europe, and it include s winning the argument in the rest of the world. And it includes being very clear, and I'll just give you one simple example because we're now muscle-bound by our own inability to talk honestly.

Iran produces 60% of its own gasoline. It produces lots of crude oil but only has one refinery. It imports 40% of its gasoline. The entire 60% is produced at one huge refinery.

In 1981, Ronald Reagan decided to break the Soviet empire. He was asked, ?What's your vision of the Cold War?? He said, "Four words: We win; they lose." He was clearly seen by The New York Times as an out-of-touch, reactionary, right-wing cowboy from California who had no idea what was going on in the world. And 11 years later the Soviet Union disappeared, but obviously that had nothing to do with Reagan because that would have meant he was right. So it's just a random accident the Soviet Union disappeared.

Part of the war we waged on the Soviet Union involved their natural gas supply because we wanted to cut off their hard currency. The Soviets were desperate to get better equipment for their pipeline. We managed to sell them through third parties very, very sophisticated American pipeline equipment, which they were thrilled to buy and thought they had pulled off a huge coup. Now we weren't playing fair. We did not tell them that the equipment was designed to blow up. One day in 1982, there was an explosion in Siberia so large that the initial reflection on the satellites looked like there was a tactical nuclear weapon. One part of the White House was genuinely worried, and the other part of the White House had to calm them down. They said, "No, no, that's our equipment blowing up."

In the 28 years since the Iranians declared war on us, in the six years since 9/11, in the months since Gen. Petraeus publicly said they are killing young Americans, we have not been able to figure out how to take down one refinery. Covertly, quietly, without overt war. And we have not been able to figure out how to use the most powerful navy in the world to simply stop the tankers and say, "Look, you want to kill young Americans, you're going to walk to the battlefield, but you're not going to ride in the car because you're not going to have any gasoline."

We don't have to be stupid. The choice is not cowardice or total war. Reagan unlocked Poland without firing a shot in an alliance with the pope, with the labor unions and with the British. We have every possibility if we're prepared to be honest to shape the world. It'll be a very big project. It's much closer to World War II than it is to anything we've tried recently. It will require real effort, real intensity and real determination. We're either going to do it now, while we're still extraordinarily powerful, or we're going to do it later under much more desperate circumstances after we've lost several cities.

We had better take this seriously because we are not very many mistakes away from a second Holocaust. Three nuclear weapons is a second Holocaust. Our enemies would like to get those weapons as soon as they can, and they promise to use them as soon as they can.

I suggest we defeat our enemies and create a different situation long before they have that power.
 
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