Next wave of terrorists could destroy jihadist movement: expert
Ian MacLeod, Ottawa Citizen
Published: Monday, March 10, 2008
Al-Qaeda as we know it is dead, replaced by a leaderless generation of ever-younger homegrown jihadists whose venomous beliefs could poison the movement from within, says a leading al-Qaeda scholar.
Marc Sageman, a medical doctor and Central Intelligence Agency officer turned forensic psychiatrist and noted al-Qaeda researcher, rejects conventional thinking that "al-Qaeda Central" - Osama bin Laden and an estimated 200 high command and hard-core followers holed up in northwest Pakistan - is resurgent.
"Those days are long over, but the social movement they inspired is as strong and dangerous as ever," he writes in the current issue of Foreign Policy, encapsulating his new book, Leaderless Jihad: Terror Networks in the Twenty-First Century.
A "third wave" of self-recruited "wannabe" radicals, many from middle-class secular families, now forms the core of a dispersed movement, globally connected through Islamist websites that offer a semblance of unity and purpose.
The devolution of al-Qaeda Central has been noted by others. Mr. Sageman, however, says the wannabe movement that has taken its place is inherently self-limiting, since by their very nature, the disconnected groups have no unified goals, strategies or a leader. If the movement's appeal to its young, core membership Muslims diminishes, the threat will recede as well, and it may eventually kill itself off with its own increasingly toxic, blood-thirsty message that even many radicals won't embrace.
The alleged "Toronto 18" terror cell, young men and youths charged with plotting to bomb Toronto landmarks and storm the Parliament Buildings, is a prime example of the new third wave, says Mr. Sageman, who holds a doctorate in sociology.
"The individuals we should fear most haven't been trained in terrorist camps, and they don't answer to Osama bin Laden or Ayman al-Zawahri. They often do not even adhere to the most austere and dogmatic tenets of radical Islam.
"They are young people seeking thrills and a sense of significance and belonging in their lives. And their lack of structure and organizing principles makes them even more terrifying and volatile than their terrorist forebears."
The ease with which they are able to translate their frustrations into acts of terrorism, often on the back of professed solidarity with terrorists halfway around the world whom they have never met, is especially frightening, he writes.
"They seek to belong to a movement larger than themselves, and their violent actions and plans are hatched locally, with advice from others on the web. Their mode of communication also suggests that they will increasingly evade detection. Without links to known terrorists, this new generation is more difficult to discover through traditional intelligence gathering. Of course, their lack of training and experience could limit their effectiveness. But that's cold comfort for their victims."
As a CIA case officer who ran spies in Afghanistan in the late 1980s, Mr. Sageman met many of the Soviet-fighting mujahedeen who later formed al-Qaeda. After 9/11, he collected biographical material on about 150 Islamic radicals to write his influential first book, Understanding Terror Networks. After analysing hundreds of additional biographies, he wrote the just-released Leaderless Jihad.
He found a process of radicalization that commonly begins with a sense of moral outrage at the killings of Muslims, whether it be in Afghanistan, Bosnia, Chechnya, Kashmir, the Palestinian intifada or Iraq, as well as the humiliations of Abu Ghraib and Guantanamo Bay.
"Feeling marginalized is, of course, no simple springboard to violence. Many people feel they don't belong, but don't aspire to wage violent jihad. What transforms a very small number to become terrorists is mobilization by networks."
Former face-to-face groups that once acted as an echo chamber, amplifying grievances, intensifying bonds to each other, have been largely replaced by forums of online radicalization, "which promote the image of the terrorist hero, link users to the online social movement, give them guidance, and instruct them in tactics. These forums, virtual marketplaces for extremist ideas, have become the 'invisible hand' that organizes terrorist activities worldwide.
"The true leader of this violent social movement is the collective discourse on half a dozen influential forums. They are transforming the terrorist movement, attracting ever younger members and now women, who can participate in the discussions."
Because al-Qaeda Central cannot impose discipline on these anonymous third-wave wannabes, "each disconnected network acts according to its own understanding and capability, but their collective actions do not amount to any unified long-term goal or strategy. These separate groups cannot coalesce into a physical movement, leaving them condemned to remain leaderless, an online aspiration."
That makes them difficult to detect, but also offers "a tantalizing strategy for those who wish to defeat these dangerous individuals: The very seeds of the movement's demise are within the movement itself."
Terrorist acts must be stripped of glory and reduced to common criminality; terrorists who are arrested or killed must not be placed in the limelight; terrorism convictions must be exploited by the authorities, he says.
"There is no glory in being taken to prison in handcuffs. No jihadi website publishes such pictures. Arrested terrorists fade into oblivion; martyrs live on in popular memory."
"This is very much a battle for young Muslims' hearts and minds," especially with the advent of the Internet. The web is "where young Muslims share their hopes, dreams, and grievances. That offers an opportunity to encourage voices that reject violence. Only then will the leaderless jihad expire, poisoned by its own toxic message."
© Ottawa Citizen 2008
