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Justin Trudeau - Timelines

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Shrek1985 said:
Can anyone point me to some black and white facts on exactly what JT's defence policy, if elected might be?

Trudeau's defence policy?  Same as all his other policies - nice hair.

CF 100 - 1952 - 639 LIBERAL
CF 101  - 1961 - 132  CONSERVATIVE
CF 104 - 1961 - 200  CONSERVATIVE
CF 5 - 1968 - 135  LIBERAL
CF 18 - 1978 - 138  LIBERAL

1,244 in 26 years - none in the last 36 years

I suspect we are seeing the peace dividend, not partisan politics
 
Shrek1985 said:
I have some friends telling me that Justin Trudeau will be a better friend to the CF than Harper.

Yeah, right.

They insist that having Andrew Leslie on his staff proves this and claim to have read many articles on the subject. However, when I try to find these, I cannot find word 1 on JT's defence policy.

The only supporting argument I can find is a *very* tenuous link to the idea that, historically the CF suffers as much, or more under short-lived conservatives governments as Liberal one's. I find this theory difficult to swallow and not well supported by history, however.

Can anyone point me to some black and white facts on exactly what JT's defence policy, if elected might be?

They don't have a defence policy. Simple as that. Here are their "priorities" under Trudeau: http://www.liberal.ca/what-we-stand-for/

If you want to read what they used to stand for, back in 2011 under Ignatieff, here's that platform: http://www.liberal.ca/files/2011/04/liberal_platform.pdf
 
Rocky Mountains said:
Same as all his other policies - nice hair.

:rofl:

Never underestimate the power of a good head of hair...or if balding, the power of looking good smoking a cigar and being Churchill.

Not saying JT is in the same league as any of them but good hair will last longer than any pre-election policy.

 
I don't think it's a given that Trudeau's Liberals will be worse than Harper's Conservatives for the military. Trudeau's father is always demonised of course, but in his day defence spending was 2% of GDP compared to the 1% it is now (the lowest since WW2). Almost the entire Royal Canadian Navy fleet was built by PE Trudeau, not to mention something like 130 F-18s, some of which are still flying. Don't forget some of the recent RCAF and CA acquisitions were initiated under Paul Martin. I'll give the Tories the C-17s. The Harper gov't make a lot of sentimental noises about the military but there's no evidence to suggest they really support it any more than the Liberals did, or will (or might).
 
Pencil Tech said:
I don't think it's a given that Trudeau's Liberals will be worse than Harper's Conservatives for the military. Trudeau's father is always demonised of course, but in his day defence spending was 2% of GDP compared to the 1% it is now (the lowest since WW2). Almost the entire Royal Canadian Navy fleet was built by PE Trudeau, not to mention something like 130 F-18s, some of which are still flying. Don't forget some of the recent RCAF and CA acquisitions were initiated under Paul Martin. I'll give the Tories the C-17s. The Harper gov't make a lot of sentimental noises about the military but there's no evidence to suggest they really support it any more than the Liberals did, or will (or might).

True. Mulroney probably did more damage to the CAF than Trudeau ever did.  He just didn't have to outward appearing "Leftist" image that Trudeau did.
 
As I understand it, the NATO allies were likely more important on ensuring Canada spent some money on defense, than any intent on his part.
 
George Wallace said:
True. Mulroney probably did more damage to the CAF than Trudeau ever did.  He just didn't have to outward appearing "Leftist" image that Trudeau did.


Nope, never ... think the 1970 White Paper, "A Foreign Policy for Canadians", followed, a few months later, by a White Paper on Defence - they were unmitigated disasters and they aimed to disarm Canada, Costa Rica was Pierre Trudeau's model state.

Mulroney did us no good, but not much harm, either.
 
Colin P said:
As I understand it, the NATO allies were likely more important on ensuring Canada spent some money on defense, than any intent on his part.


Very true, Helmut Schmidt, famously, took him for a walk in the garden and explained just how little influence Canada had and how hard he, Schmidt, could and would make life for Trudeau if he he didn't, for example, buy new (German) tanks.
 
Pencil Tech said:
Almost the entire Royal Canadian Navy fleet was built by PE Trudeau,

That is complete Bull.

When Trudeau came to power in 1968, the construction of the batch one IROQUOIS class was just starting, a decision made under his predecessor Lester B. Pearson (who probably understood the use of military power in foreign affairs by middle power better that anyone since WWII).

Trudeau cancelled the batch 2 of the IROQUOIS without any plan for further replacement, creating a twenty years gap in fleet replacement, even though DND started working on new replacement plans as early as 1975 after this cancellation of the follow on IROQUOIS (this was ultimately the Canadian Patrol Frigate Program). This action by Trudeau brought the fleet to near total obsolescence as even in 1972 (commissioning of the last IRO), the steamers of the various ST-LAURENT derivatives were getting overdue for replacement.

In 1979, as a result of the Iranian revolution, the US offered Canada the four fully armed Spruance class derivative AAW destroyers ordered but not yet delivered to the Shah (known as the Kidd class), for a third the price: Trudeau absolutely refused. They ended up in the US fleet for a long time, then were recently transferred to Taiwan.

When, and only when, it became absolutely clear that the fleet was falling apart (The newspapers of the day were joking that if you saw three ships go sailing by at Christmas, it was the entire Canadian fleet) and other countries in NATO started to pressure Canada to hold up its end, did Trudeau agree to begin, slowly, the implementation of the CPF program of the Navy, by letting contracts in 1983 (year before his last defeat) for the design phase and development of tenders only for the CPF batch one. Even then, his main concern was the industrial benefits. It was left to the Conservatives of Mulroney to actually let out the contracts for the CPF batch one and two, to cancel the batch 3 in order to develop instead a program (entirely resulting from the Mulroney gov. white paper on defence) to acquire nuclear attack submarines. When the wall fell and the Nuc. boats program was abandoned, a diesel submarine acquisition program was started by the conservatives, then itself cancelled by Chretien, which ultimately led the same Chretien to acquire the british Upholder when it became clear that the "O" boats could not be refitted and carry on.

As for the smaller vessels, at least two replacement programs were cancelled under Trudeau.

The MCDVs are an entirely Mulroney government program, and the Trudeau government let both classes in place during his tenure rot with minimum funding even for upgrades. When I joined in 1976, the Gate Vessels and PB's on the west coast were already 25 years old. They got to be more than 40 years old before they were replaced. I was one of the last captains of the PORTE ST-JEAN: she was the last ship commissioned in the Canadian Navy by the king.

So don't ever say that Trudeau built the Canadian Navy Fleet: He let it slip into obsolescence on purpose and couldn't care less about it.
 
E.R. Campbell said:
Very true, Helmut Schmidt, famously, took him for a walk in the garden and explained just how little influence Canada had and how hard he, Schmidt, could and would make life for Trudeau if he he didn't, for example, buy new (German) tanks.

Probably having even more impact on the naive Mr. Trudeau as coming from a lifelong member of the Socialist International to a recent recruit.
 
Oldgateboatdriver, full on respect to your experience and knowledge, and I wasn't sure about the MCDVs, but then given that, my point was really how many hulls has Stephen Harper cut? Or likely to in the future, honestly? And how's that deepwater Arctic port coming along? I mean actually how much worse can it get?
 
Pencil Tech said:
Oldgateboatdriver, full on respect to your experience and knowledge, and I wasn't sure about the MCDVs, but then given that, my point was really how many hulls has Stephen Harper cut? Or likely to in the future, honestly? And how's that deepwater Arctic port coming along? I mean actually how much worse can it get?

Forgot to also specify that all three (then) AOR's were also in the process of being built or in the water when Trudeau senior became PM. We know where their replacement stands !!!

How much worse it gets is only a matter of mathematics:

In terms of fleet replacement, the AOR's and the IRO's are way way overdue: they are obsolete as hulls and of limited use as warships in today's environment as even the last refit of the IRO goes quite some ways back.

The HAL's are in reasonable shape as a result of the current mid-life they are being given BUT (and there is always a but) work on their replacement is now getting seriously due: it has got to begin now so the first replacement will get in the water just when the first HAL that went through mid-life comes due for its next  operational upgrade (by which point the hull/machinery will near its useful life failing extremely expensive replacement/repairs).

The MCDV's are ok but plans for their replacement should get underway sometimes in the next five years.

The subs are ok at this time but planning for the next sub should begin shortly also as the lead time for submarines programs are longer than frigates/destroyers ones.

Finally, someone should explain (or try to anyway) again to the government why its insistence on equipping the Navy with light icebreakers is ridiculous, should be scrapped and that the Navy does not need to be in that business regardless of the fact that the Arctic is getting to be available for commercial exploitation.

If they insist on the Navy acting as policemen on our coasts, here's a suggestion (the design is avail now and construction could begin as soon as contracts are let out): http://products.damen.com/en/ranges/offshore-patrol-vessel/offshore-patrol-vessel-1400
 
Oldgateboatdriver said:
......

Finally, someone should explain (or try to anyway) again to the government why its insistence on equipping the Navy with light icebreakers is ridiculous, should be scrapped and that the Navy does not need to be in that business regardless of the fact that the Arctic is getting to be available for commercial exploitation.

If they insist on the Navy acting as policemen on our coasts, here's a suggestion (the design is avail now and construction could begin as soon as contracts are let out): http://products.damen.com/en/ranges/offshore-patrol-vessel/offshore-patrol-vessel-1400

OGBD -

Here is where I think you lose a lot of supporters.  Most folks want the RCN's work to begin at tidewater.  Just as they expect the RCAF to do SovPats and the Army to sling sand bags and take glorious snowmobile adventure excursions through the arctic.

Perhaps the OPVs that you suggest could be used not just on Canada's ice free waters (the West Coast and everything south of the Nose and Tail) but could also be used as a deployable policing force for the littorals and places like the Horn of Africa.  A CSC and a couple of OPVs would also be a token.

 
Here's an alternative pair of ships (http://en.dcnsgroup.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/09/180561.pdf)....one OPV with twice the range of the one mentioned above and a Corvette in the same family with anti-air, anti-surface and ASW capabilities.  One could replace the MCDV's in the offshore role and the other could be a lighter (both in size and manpower requirements) complement to the future CSC. 

My personal opinion is that Canada would be better served with a larger fleet of ships...say a handful (4?) of high-end CSC's with taskforce command capabilities, a larger number of multi-purpose Corvettes (6-8?) and several OPV's (8-10?) rather than the proposed smaller number of CSC's (max 12 planned but almost certainly to be less).   
 
Perhaps I expressed myself incorrectly.

The operative word in my sentence is "policemen", not "operating on our coasts", which we already do.

Our work does begin at tidewaters, even before tide waters: My name is on a list of recipients of a CDS unit citation for the Oka crisis. We provided patrol boat support for the op and closed the river to inter-reserve traffic.

We do sling sandbags too: In the Winnipeg flood, we repatriated all the navy heavy RHIBs by truck or air to Winnipeg and provided the "heavy trucks" of sandbagging to remote areas accessible by water only.

We do our share of Sovpats: We are always sailing in our area of responsibility (Canadian waters). Anything on the water in our area of responsibility, we try to identify and track in our common picture system.

And we do all this in defence of Canadian sovereignty. But policing, that is enforcing the laws of Canada within the Canadian borders or EEZ is not our job anymore than the Army patrols downtown Montreal for parking infractions or the Airforce will inspect the maintenance logs of  Air canada planes to see if they are up to date.

The Arctic, whenever it is ice free so that commercial exploitation can occur is just as ice free for our current type of warships. That is why, for instance we do operate frigates, MCDV's and submarines in the high Arctic in the summer months in support of the defence of the Arctic. However, being able to operate in the ice would serve no purpose and it is only wanted as a form of police presence by the government. The Coastguard can carry out this "presence" role better and make more economical other use of the hulls at the same time, for ocean research/rescue/ice breaking services to commercial traffic, etc.

Lets face it the only military role an icebreaker could have is to go and "attack" a "military" target in the Arctic. That would be akin to sending a four inch long snapping turtle across a whole school gym to go after the other side's snapping turtle (for those of you unfamiliar with icebreakers, they usually don't move through ice much faster than a fast walker would walk on it.). When you otherwise have at your disposal a seagull that can break a turtle's back with its beak, such a slow motion chase becomes ridiculous. If there is a military threat to the Arctic within the iced area, air power will be required, not slow Navy icebreakers. (Historical aside: Funny enough, the last time the RCN operated an icebreaker as an Arctic Patrol Vessel [HMCS LABRADOR], she was mostly used in support of the RCAF in helping it set up the DEW line of radar stations.). If the military threat is not itself a slow icebreaker, then it is because the conditions are propitious to employment of standard warships by both side.

P.S GR66: The planned number of CSC's is 15, plus the 6 to 8 AOPS, which are the abomination I would like to see replaced by proper OPV's, whether along the line you propose or the one I do. I picked the one I presented because, unlike the larger OPV's or AOPS, they could be mostly manned and operated by the reserves. A fleet of 15 CSC, 2 AOR, 12-14 OPV such as the one I propose and 4-6 submarines would serve us great. If two Mistral type amphibious ships could be added, it would be even better.
 
 
Rocky Mountains said:
Trudeau's defence policy?  Same as all his other policies - nice hair.

CF 100 - 1952 - 639 LIBERAL
CF 101  - 1961 - 132  CONSERVATIVE
CF 104 - 1961 - 200  CONSERVATIVE
CF 5 - 1968 - 135  LIBERAL
CF 18 - 1978 - 138  LIBERAL

1,244 in 26 years - none in the last 36 years

I suspect we are seeing the peace dividend, not partisan politics

You forgot:

CF-105 - 1959 - 5 LIBERAL / cancelled and scrapped CONSERVATIVE  ;)
 
I agree 100% that a token military presence does little to nothing to enforce our sovereignty in the Arctic.  That's not to say that we shouldn't have a presence there or have the ability to project force there if another nation decides to operate in our territory. 

However it would be a MUCH stronger statement of Canadian sovereignty if a team of Spetsnaz operatives mushing over the Canadian ice pack with their dogsleds were to be pulled over by a local bylaw officer on a skidoo and ticketed for not having dog licenses and for littering with the discarded packaging for their rations than them spotting an AOPS chugging along on the horizon. 

REALl sovereignty comes from use of the land and civic control over the territory not having your military pass through on occasion.  It would be much more cost effective for the government to encourage development and settlement of the arctic and to install the mechanisms of civil society than to build a handful of ice-strengthened RCN ships.
 
Oldgateboatdriver said:
Perhaps I expressed myself incorrectly.

The operative word in my sentence is "policemen", not "operating on our coasts", which we already do.

Our work does begin at tidewaters, even before tide waters: My name is on a list of recipients of a CDS unit citation for the Oka crisis. We provided patrol boat support for the op and closed the river to inter-reserve traffic.

We do sling sandbags too: In the Winnipeg flood, we repatriated all the navy heavy RHIBs by truck or air to Winnipeg and provided the "heavy trucks" of sandbagging to remote areas accessible by water only.

We do our share of Sovpats: We are always sailing in our area of responsibility (Canadian waters). Anything on the water in our area of responsibility, we try to identify and track in our common picture system.

And we do all this in defence of Canadian sovereignty. But policing, that is enforcing the laws of Canada within the Canadian borders or EEZ is not our job anymore than the Army patrols downtown Montreal for parking infractions or the Airforce will inspect the maintenance logs of  Air canada planes to see if they are up to date.

The Arctic, whenever it is ice free so that commercial exploitation can occur is just as ice free for our current type of warships. That is why, for instance we do operate frigates, MCDV's and submarines in the high Arctic in the summer months in support of the defence of the Arctic. However, being able to operate in the ice would serve no purpose and it is only wanted as a form of police presence by the government. The Coastguard can carry out this "presence" role better and make more economical other use of the hulls at the same time, for ocean research/rescue/ice breaking services to commercial traffic, etc.

Lets face it the only military role an icebreaker could have is to go and "attack" a "military" target in the Arctic. That would be akin to sending a four inch long snapping turtle across a whole school gym to go after the other side's snapping turtle (for those of you unfamiliar with icebreakers, they usually don't move through ice much faster than a fast walker would walk on it.). When you otherwise have at your disposal a seagull that can break a turtle's back with its beak, such a slow motion chase becomes ridiculous. If there is a military threat to the Arctic within the iced area, air power will be required, not slow Navy icebreakers. (Historical aside: Funny enough, the last time the RCN operated an icebreaker as an Arctic Patrol Vessel [HMCS LABRADOR], she was mostly used in support of the RCAF in helping it set up the DEW line of radar stations.). If the military threat is not itself a slow icebreaker, then it is because the conditions are propitious to employment of standard warships by both side.

P.S GR66: The planned number of CSC's is 15, plus the 6 to 8 AOPS, which are the abomination I would like to see replaced by proper OPV's, whether along the line you propose or the one I do. I picked the one I presented because, unlike the larger OPV's or AOPS, they could be mostly manned and operated by the reserves. A fleet of 15 CSC, 2 AOR, 12-14 OPV such as the one I propose and 4-6 submarines would serve us great. If two Mistral type amphibious ships could be added, it would be even better.

All clear OGBD.... by the way.  You could make money on those snapping turtle fights.  Just think of all the beer you could sell waiting for contact  :nod:

Point well taken on the primacy of the air response in the Arctic. 

So if you increased the deepwater OPV fleet (at the cost of the MCDV/AOPS fleet)  how would that impact the CSC buy?  Suppose you had 20 OPVs to replace the MCDVs and AOPS.  I'm back to thinking about moving up the scale to the 2400s or even the Hollands.
 
The nice thing is that the "snapping turtle" is likely to be a commercial design, with some military comms, radar and drop in weapon systems tossed on to it. I suspect most of the designs would readily take the aforementioned systems with minimal issues. It's main job is to show the flag and to have a visible presence. The good news is that manning a a commercially designed modern icebreaker would require far fewer crew than your average navy ship. Sometimes there is a cost to be where you live. Maintaining a good "fence" between your neighbours is likely cheaper in the long run then letting their dogs and brats run wild on your property. The Arctic is not going away, the CCG are terrible at "policing" I suspect soon or later the Navy is going to have to dedicate more resource up there whether they want to or not.

Frankly I think the Naval reserve is highly underused asset and one that needs to be grown and introduced in new places like the western and eastern Arctic (As well as Prince Rupert if some of the LNG stuff moves ahead) It will take time to build the capacity up there, start with smaller seasonally vessels like a CB90 based out of Tuk.     
 
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