LPC and NDP combined have the majority to bring stuff back to the table. At this point, NDP’s wants (particularly more fleshed out pharmacare) are more regulatory than legislative. That can and does continue through prorogues and summer breaks.
Liberal Minority Government 2021 - ????
- Thread starter Altair
- Start date
ArmyRick
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You mean "I understand why CANADIANS are upset..." 77% of Canadians want an election NOW and a new mandate. Period. End of discussion. Not just me either.
ArmyRick
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"Bills that have not received Royal Assent are terminated and must be reintroduced in the new session. This is accomplished either with the unanimous consent of the House or through the adoption of a motion to that effect. However, prorogation has no practical effect on Private Members’ Business (proposals introduced by members who are not cabinet ministers or parliamentary secretaries) as they continue from session to session."
Parliament is prorogued. What happens next? | Insights | Torys LLP
Good luck getting UNANIMOUS consent. Start the bills from square one. So in other words, not likely going to happen.
ArmyRick
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100% agreed. I think what is happening here is some people are still clinging to hope that some miracle that the CPC momentum will suddenly die out. I think it will increase if they delay the election post spring.
They won’t be square one. They can reintroduce them for first reading in whatever state they left committee. While not a full reset by any means, that would speed progress in whatever limited selection they choose to revive.
No I understand why Canadians are upset. But also why conservatives are as well. They can see the prize so close but can’t quite get it.
End of discussion lol ok. Sounds good to me.
ArmyRick
Army.ca Veteran
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Come again? You need unanimous consent t continue otherwise you have to re-introduce the bill. Only private members bill can pick back up.
ArmyRick
Army.ca Veteran
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Hey I see what you did there. Canadians = Conservatives, awesome of you to state that.
and on the end of discussion, I have received a few of "not talking to you, have a good night" dismissals from you, so take no offence to it.
Go back and read it again more slowly.
I didn’t take offence. I’m more than happy to acquiesce to your declaration that the discussion is over.
Cheers.
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Survey says: "Three-quarters say ‘bring back parliament’ – but do they want to deal with Trump or to trigger an election?"
angusreid.org
Some highlights
And whose priorities should premiers be considering first?
Details & margin of error (highlight mine)
Three-quarters say ‘bring back parliament’ - but do they want to deal with Trump or to trigger an election? -
Majority say it should be a ‘Canada First’ approach to Trump; Albertans most likely to disagree January 30, 2025 – Prime Minister Justin Trudeau prorogued parliament on Jan. 6 and sent the Liberal Party of Canada into a search for his successor, but that hasn’t meant any slowdown in cross-border...
angusreid.org
Some highlights
- "Conservative Party leader Pierre Poilievre has recently called Canada “weaker than ever” in his statement asking that parliament be recalled. Half of Canadians (53%) agree with this statement, while two-in-five (41%) disagree
- That said, Canadians are also five times as likely to say that public statements about Canada’s weakness are “harmful” (51%) to negotiations, rather than helpful (11%). A plurality of would-be CPC voters say it makes no difference (46%) while the vast majority of all other voters say it hurts Canada’s position."
And whose priorities should premiers be considering first?
Details & margin of error (highlight mine)
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Meanwhile, we'll see ...
www.thecanadianpressnews.ca
NDP leader doubles down on vow to force spring election
OTTAWA - NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh says he still plans to force a spring election when Parliament returns at end of March.
Kirk LaPointe: Poilievre's potential polling panic isn't just noise
Frank Graves’ latest numbers show Conservatives in minority territory amid Trump turmoil, Trudeau exit
www.biv.com
I’ll be curious to see where the aggregate goes this weekend.
Jarnhamar
Army.ca Myth
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Order of Canada material.
Kirk LaPointe: Poilievre's potential polling panic isn't just noise
Frank Graves’ latest numbers show Conservatives in minority territory amid Trump turmoil, Trudeau exit
I’ll be curious to see where the aggregate goes this weekend.
EKOS is startlingly divergent from the others. Like, to the degree where if you miss by that much as a polling company, you pretty much destroy yourself. I wonder what's leading to such very different results?
Parsing things a bit farther though, it looks liek each of the polling companies show a narrowing in their own poll to poll data:
| Leger | CPC +26 on Jan 12 | CPC +18 on Jan 25 | Down by 8% | 5 days old |
| Ekos | CPC +9 on Jan 18 | CPC +3 on Jan 25 | Down by 6% | 5 days old |
| Nanos | CPC +24 on Jan 17 | CPC +17 on Jan 24 | Down by 7% | 6 days old |
| Abacus | CPC +26 on Jan 12 | CPC +21 on Jan 24 | Down by 5% | 6 days old |
| Mainstreet: | CPC +29 on Dec 16 | CPC +19 on Jan 13 | Down by 10% | 17 days old |
The polling itself I put little stock in, but consistently all of the big polls that have reported since Trudeau's resignation announcement show some reversion away from the extreme highs the CPC were enjoying immediately prior. EKOS is still way out there alone though.
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Maybe a lot of ppl just really don't like Trudeau and are fine with the party as a whole?
daftandbarmy
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Nice work ladies... 
The lead initially started narrowing after Justin Trudeau announced his retirement. The acceleration of this trend became clear in our polling about two weeks ago. It was contemporaneous with the entry of Mark Carney to the race which appears to be a factor. It was also reinforced by the dramatic announcements of potential 25 per cent tariffs from newly inaugurated Trump and repeated discussion of annexation of Canada. This seems to have captured the attention of Canadians, particularly the more recent recruits to the Conservative fold. Since then, that trend has continued and, in a roll-up of the past six days (since our last report), this gap has narrowed further to a remarkably thin three points.
This dramatic and perhaps unprecedented movement has been focussed among women (where the Liberals now lead handily), the university-educated, and self-defined middle-class voters. Perhaps more importantly, the Liberals have erased a 20-point gap in Ontario and now have a slight lead. They are also much more competitive in Quebec, they lead in the Atlantic, and they are faring much better in British Columbia. In short, the race has morphed from a pro forma Conservative coronation to a highly unpredictable horse race.
The lead initially started narrowing after Justin Trudeau announced his retirement. The acceleration of this trend became clear in our polling about two weeks ago. It was contemporaneous with the entry of Mark Carney to the race which appears to be a factor. It was also reinforced by the dramatic announcements of potential 25 per cent tariffs from newly inaugurated Trump and repeated discussion of annexation of Canada. This seems to have captured the attention of Canadians, particularly the more recent recruits to the Conservative fold. Since then, that trend has continued and, in a roll-up of the past six days (since our last report), this gap has narrowed further to a remarkably thin three points.
This dramatic and perhaps unprecedented movement has been focussed among women (where the Liberals now lead handily), the university-educated, and self-defined middle-class voters. Perhaps more importantly, the Liberals have erased a 20-point gap in Ontario and now have a slight lead. They are also much more competitive in Quebec, they lead in the Atlantic, and they are faring much better in British Columbia. In short, the race has morphed from a pro forma Conservative coronation to a highly unpredictable horse race.
Major and Straight-Line Decline in Conservative Advantage over Past Month
[Ottawa – January 29, 2025] Approximately a month ago, following Freeland’s dramatic exit from the Liberal cabinet, the Conservatives opened up a seemingly insurmountable lead of 25 points. S…
www.ekospolitics.com
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NearingZenith
New Member
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With polls, especially with so many issues and the political leaders in flux, I’m generally more interested in the overall trends than absolute numbers anyways. All the polls show a generally trend of a 5-10% tightening. People have been saying for months that Trudeau was dragging the Liberal party down. Now that he’s leaving it shouldn’t be a surprise that the Liberal Party is recovering somewhat. Beyond that, the polls aren’t going to be particularly meaningful in the next few weeks until the Liberal Party actually selects a leader.
As to why the EKOS polls have swung more toward the Liberals than others, I’ve read that EKOS uses automated phone calls and that most people don’t answer automated calls or if they do answer, won’t end up making it through the whole phone call survey. So the final respondents of a political survey are going to be the most politically passionate people which may be biased toward Liberal supporters right now because they have an active leadership race.
Alternatively, didn’t the tightening between the Liberals and Conservatives show up first in EKOS polls before the others? It’s possible the EKOS polling is more sensitive to change and other polls will catch up to the EKOS polls in the weeks ahead.
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