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"The Liberals shall rise again," says Conrad Black

hold_fast said:
I feel like he's a fencesitter and opportunist who invents policies when the media gets upset about something. While he /did/ stand strongly on some issues and raise some good points, they seemed to be primarily the ones he knew he could stand behind safely. He also couldn't account for where money was coming from to fundraise and had no solutions to tuition problems for students - which, yes, is an issue to me.
I have to agree with your view of Iggy. When he first entered politics, I thought it was a godsend for the Libs. But he has been unable to translate academic credentials into anything resembling leadership or charisma. Is there hope for him/them? maybe, if he gets his act together and starts sticking to the message.

I voted conservative but the right wing of the party makes me nervous...
 
>promoting Trudeau fils will not sit well with them.

If heredity carries any meaning, it must be borne in mind that Justin is not merely the son of Pierre; he is also the son of Margaret.
 
Brad Sallows said:
>promoting Trudeau fils will not sit well with them.

If heredity carries any meaning, it must be borne in mind that Justin is not merely the son of Pierre; he is also the son of Margaret.

Perfect!  ::)
 
I wonder who'll stand up to replace him.

My bet: it won't be Bob Rae - he's probably already suckholing to get himself in with the newly reinvigorated federal NDP.
 
Redeye said:
I wonder who'll stand up to replace him.

My bet: it won't be Bob Rae - he's probably already suckholing to get himself in with the newly reinvigorated federal NDP.

By custom, the next leader should be a francophone.  Following the 2015 election the party will have to decide whether 2011 was an abberation or their 1993.  If that is the case, I would look for Bob to pull a Peter, depose the franco leader while promising never to merge with the NDP, then turn around and do it.
 
dapaterson said:
By custom, the next leader should be a francophone.  Following the 2015 election the party will have to decide whether 2011 was an aberration or their 1993.  If that is the case, I would look for Bob to pull a Peter, depose the franco leader while promising never to merge with the NDP, then turn around and do it.

If that happens then I wager half or more of their current MPs will cross the floor to the Torries. It's probably reasonable to presume that the majority of the Liberals elected last night are the "blue" kind, rather than the "orange" kind.
 
Tom Young the host of the afternoon show on 95.7 FM newstalk radio here in Halifax said last spring " mark my words, in 5 years, Justin Trudeau will be the next PM".  Now, maybe he might not be the next PM but I'll bet he will make a run for the leadership of the Pary now that Iggys gone.
 
Will people really vote for that guy? Ugh. It would be like electing a rock star as Prime Minister......except the rock star has a skill.
 
Container said:
Will people really vote for that guy? Ugh. It would be like electing a rock star as Prime Minister......except the rock star has a skill.

There are plenty of Liberals who believe in the Great Man theory and will sell their souls to get his name up as the Liberal leader in the expectation that everyone will swoon at the sound of his name.

First problem is that a great man needs to be, you know, great. A guy with no visible accomplishments should not be in contention at all (although people like Paris Hilton, Kim Kardashien and Barrack Obama would seem to refute this theory). Of course when the rubber hits the road buyers remorse will kick in very fast.

The second problem is the LPC has no coherent platform. since they wanted to be all things to all people, they ended up representing nothing at all. Another empty suit with no platform? Recipie for disaster.
 
Thucydides said:
The second problem is the LPC has no coherent platform. since they wanted to be all things to all people, they ended up representing nothing at all. Another empty suit with no platform? Recipie for disaster.

I think part of the problem is burned bridges.  Trudeau made a decision to alienate the West as a part of an us against them type of thing.  Seizing billions in oil wealth is remembered as if it were yesterday.  Trudeau's handling of Quebec re: the Constitution broke the Liberal's stranglehold on Quebec.  The Liberals are fighting elections in half of Canada, Ontario and the Atlantic.
 
>It would be like electing a rock star as Prime Minister

Justin is the son of Margaret as well as the son of Pierre.  You might get the groupie rather than the rock star.
 
Thucydides said:
First problem is that a great man needs to be, you know, great. A guy with no visible accomplishments should not be in contention at all (although people like Paris Hilton, Kim Kardashien and Barrack Obama would seem to refute this theory). Of course when the rubber hits the road buyers remorse will kick in very fast.

Barack Obama was the first black President in a country with a long history of racial issues (including a Civil War) and comes from an academic/political pedigree similar to Harper (graduate degrees, background in politics prior to taking on leadership).  Thoughts of your favorite blogs aside, I'd consider him "somewhat" accomplished (as in, he'll have a legacy) and in a different league than Hilton or Kardashian.
 
Here, reproduced under the Fair Dealing provisions (§29) of the Copyright Act from the Globe and Mail is a good look at 'what went wrong?' and 'where to next?' from a well known Liberal:

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/second-reading/silver-powers/the-liberal-party-what-went-wrong-and-where-to-next/article2008011/page3/
The Liberal Party: What went wrong and where to next?

ROBERT SILVER
Globe and Mail Update

Posted on Tuesday, May 3, 2011

If I needed to sum up what went wrong with the 2011 Liberal campaign in a sentence, it is a quote that Jane Taber got just before the election started in March. “The campaign is shaping up like 1993, with the GST replaced by corporate taxes, and helicopters replaced by jets,’ a senior Ignatieff MP notes.” The same MP went on: “Then, like now, the Tories are focused on the Liberal leader, while the Liberals will again promise national childcare, education funding and some sort of infrastructure.”

When I first read that quote, I couldn’t help but cringe. 2011 is nothing like 1993 – and it never was going to be. The country is different, our opponents are vastly different, and the Liberal Party’s voting coalition as it existed in 1993 is different. There is certainly no mass nostalgia from anyone other than the most partisan of Liberals for 1993. It was, seemingly, only us Liberals that remained the same as we had been almost 20-years earlier.

Of course elections are never won or lost based on one reason and this one is no different. The Liberal Party of Canada have beenhanded a disastrous result for numerous reasons – some that were new to this campaign, some that were a long-time coming.

First a proviso: I have lots of people who I consider friends who gave thousands of hours of their time to the national and local Liberal campaigns. In lots of ways, they did a wonderful job. This was a professional, slick campaign. While what follows may sound harsh, please be assured that (a) it is not intended as a personal shot against anyone but rather to the effort as a whole; and (b) I only write it because I really do care about the future of the Liberal Party.

We entered the election with a clear strategy to triangulate the NDP on just about every single issue save Afghanistan. Pick an issue, look at the NDP, look at the Liberals, we consistently got as close to them as possible. The strategy was to push the NDP down, polarize the election as a choice between us and the Conservatives and bob’s your uncle. At least that was the theory.

For the first two weeks of the campaign, the strategy was partially working. The election was polarizing between the Conservatives and Liberals. The NDP’s numbers were staying low. Sure, the Liberals were still double-digit support behind the Conservatives but to the extent the strategy was intended to achieve certain results, there was hope.

And then the debates came, Jack Layton started to gain traction (for a bunch of reasons that will be analyzed to death here and elsewhere) and then the fatal flaws of the strategy quickly crystallized. In short: (a) Layton’s NDP have never been and never were going to be the NDP of 1993. We were never going to get them under 15 per cent, never mind the 7 per cent they got in 1993 – to think otherwise was based on hope not reality; (b) You can’t fake sincerity. The NDP believed in the positions both parties took, the Liberals less so. The voters got that. Why vote for a pale pink imitation when you can vote for the real thing; (c) It allowed the NDP to jujitsu us aside rather easily by focusing on leadership given that there was little to distinguish our platforms; And (d) once the NDP gained momentum, we had little to go after them over.

But there was of course more at play than simply our short-term strategy. We made the classic mistake that many losing campaigns make, which is to assume the general public hates your opponent – Stephen Harper in this case – as much as the partisans do.

Some will point to leadership. No, we didn’t lose just because of Michael Ignatieff. The same way we didn’t lose just because of Stéphane Dion or Paul Martin. Ignatieff did fine in the campaign – in some ways admirably – and there is no reason to think that having any other Liberal on the posters, with everything else about the party and the campaign remaining the same, would have led to a different result.

There is no denying that the pre-writ ads against Ignatieff worked. Again. We swore after Dion that we would never let this happen to us again. We did. There were many other lessons from the Dion election and in particular pre-election writ period that were not learned this time around. That is just inexcusable.

Sitting out the fight on cornerstone issues

From a personal perspective, there were two low-points of the Liberal campaign. The first was when the issue of national unity was raised. For at least 40 years, this has been the Liberal Party’s bread-and-butter, our raison d’etre. We are the party of national unity. When the issue was brought up, Harper quickly wrapped himself in the flag and took on the role of Captain Canada. He intentionally decided he would own the issue and try to turn it into a strength for him and his party. We said we don’t want to discuss national unity. Pass. We wouldn’t speak out against extending Bill 101 to federally regulated industries, we wouldn’t defend the Clarity Act, wouldn’t speak out against NDP nonsense on the Constitution – that was literally verbatim from Brian Mulroney’s misguided constitutional adventures. We didn’t want to go there, had nothing to say in response. My anger over this decision was not great for my blood pressure.

The second low point of the election for me was during the English debate when Gilles Duceppe and Jack Layton were debating reasonable accommodation, multiculturalism and immigration. Duceppe started highlighting a very Quebec-centric position on the issues in the one-on-one segment, Layton played along. Stephen Harper jumped in and gave a fairly impassioned defence of multiculturalism – of diversity as our strength. Michael Ignatieff did not.

To understand how our politics have changed in the last decade stop and let those two low points sink in. The Conservative Party of Canada now, at least in this campaign, owns national unity as an issue – we had nothing to say about it. The Conservative Party of Canada now owns multiculturalism and immigration as an issue – we had nothing to say about it either.

I could keep going on the shortcomings of the 2011 campaign – the ads, the polling, our seeming obsession with our party’s history that only makes us look like we’re stuck in the past. I could keep going and literally write a 50-page memo outlining everything we need to get better at but it’s time to look to the future.

The challenging road ahead

Yes, I believe that the Liberal Party of Canada can and will have a bright future if we make some tough but necessary choices. In fact, this could be an extremely exciting time and opportunity for the Liberal Party. How does this play out? Time will tell, of course. I see our party breaking into roughly four camps in the days and weeks to come:

1. The NDP merger/cooperation/coalition group. I have made my views on this option pretty clear in the past. Nothing in this campaign has changed those views – in fact, quite the opposite. The Liberal Party of Canada is not a “left-wing party”. Not when we are at our best. The Liberals and NDP have radically different cultures and visions for the country – at least they should have different visions. Unlike the PCs and Alliance/Reform, we were never one party that had a divorce. But the party may decide to pursue this option. That’s the party’s right, of course. I won’t be a part of the new, merged party but it’s a democracy and is certainly a legitimate option.

2. Reform everything about the Liberal Party. Top-to-bottom. New blood, new voting coalition – there’s not much that stays the same in this new Liberal Party. This is obviously my preferred option and I will discuss it in more detail in the days and weeks to come.

3. Put a fresh coat of paint on the party. Nobody will say they are in this camp but I will have no doubt that there will be some Liberals who think we just need to “run a better campaign” or “get a better leader” and everything turns around. You will know people in this camp if they start speeches by talking about our glorious history, refer to the Liberal Party as a “family” rather than a political party and claim that “Canada needs the Liberal Party.” I would put it at more than 50 per cent that this group wins the day, which really worries me because this option dooms the party to more of the same in terms of results.

4. The fourth group will be Liberals who reject the NDP merger talk, think the radical reforms in option No. 2 are impossible to achieve based on the “old guard” (for lack of a better term) who still control most of the current party and have no interest in remaining in the same old, same old Liberal Party. These people will seriously consider starting a new party or just stop being a part of partisan politics for a while. Hopefully this group remains (as it is today) miniscule because if it grows, it is very bad news for the future of the Liberal Party.

The future of the Liberal Party could be exceedingly exciting but not if we enter into the next election looking the same and reflecting the past instead of the future. I will try to give my opinions on what that future should look like in the days and weeks to come.


Silver presents an interesting list of “groups”/options for the Liberals.

I repeat my hope that a “New Liberal Party” emerges – pushing back towards the 'big spending centre' and shoving the “nationalize the banks” fringe of the NDP out and back to the loony left fringe where they belong. That outcome would force the Conservatives to the 'small government' centre, too: fiscally conservative and disinterested in “social' issues (gay marriage, abortion, etc), and shoving the 'radical right' out to the fringes where they, too, belong.
 
With a Harper majority, the Liberals now have the time, years of time to do what they should have done  . . .  rebuild.

 
This story from The Hill Times website is reproduced under the Fair Dealing provision of the Copyright Act. It highlights how a couple of Grits view the election results. The statement by Stephen Clarkson that the NDP has replaced the Liberals as the only national party reveals a certain attitude that has much to do with the Liberal failure, sort of an entitlement attitude. If one looks at the NDP growth outside Quebec, it was hardly spectacular.

Politics a 'blood sport' that Ignatieff didn't understand
Liberal Party's 43-seat loss a 'typhoon,' says Grit Jim Karygianis. 'Unless the leader and everybody else understands that this is a blood sport, the Liberals are going to be wiped off the face of the earth,' he says.

By TIM NAUMETZ
Published May 4, 2011 12:52 AM 
         
PARLIAMENT HILL – The devastated Liberal caucus is meeting next week to come to grips with the unknown territory at the “rump end” of the House of Commons, the scarce resources and money the party will have available to get back on its feet over the next four years, and examine campaign wreckage to determine what led to the Liberal decimation when the electorate shifted like an earthquake in Monday’s election.

“The prospect is grim,” Stephen Clarkson, the University of Toronto professor best known for his expertise on Canada’s Liberal party, told The Hill Times. "It is no longer a national party, it can't claim to be."

Two Liberals made comments suggesting the open wounds the party is suffering now, down to a historic low of 34 House of Commons seats after winning only 18.9 per cent of the popular vote, its 12 Atlantic MPs now forming the largest regional caucus in the House, only five MPs left in Toronto’s 416 area code, only seven in the entire province of Quebec, may have been festering for years.

One longtime Liberal insider, who did not want to be identified, said the party “has been rotting for quite some time,” as it allowed the structures of its fundraising programs and membership, now apparently only 34,000 across the country, volunteer programs and grassroots engagement lapse since well before the Jean Chrétien government, and corrosion that “eroded” further in the decade-long wars between Mr. Chrétien and his loyalists and former prime minister Paul Martin.

Jim Karygianis, the down-to-earth trench fighter and combative Liberal MP who was re-elected in his Scarborough-Agincourt riding in Toronto, openly displayed pent-up frustration at the way he says some caucus members have been treated in the past, with limited consultation, exclusion of MPs unpopular with the last two leaders, Michael Ignatieff and Stéphane Dion, and a “dictatorial” approach Mr. Karygianis said has to end if the party expects to rebuild.

He expressed open discontent serving under Mr. Ignatieff’s leadership in the past two years, something other MPs have also hinted at privately during that time.

“We’ll give a plaque like he gives the rest of us and we’ll say ‘thank you for being here,” Mr. Karygianis said when told the Liberal leader announced he is returning to academic life. Mr. Karygianis blamed the humbling defeat on Mr. Ignatieff.

“It’s called a typhoon, and it’s all on account of the leader,” he told The Hill Times.

“There’s no ifs, ands or buts about it, we should have come out swinging when they said ‘just visiting and all that stuff.’ There’s no Mr. Nice in this business. This is a blood sport and unless the leader and everybody else understands that, this is a blood sport, the Liberals are going to be wiped off the face of the earth.”

Mr. Karygianis, whose gruff style apparently did not win brownie points in the caucus, even though he was one of the only five Toronto MPs re-elected, said the new caucus must be more inclusive, or the party will pay the price again at the ballot box. “When you want stuff, why should I go out of my way to help you, when you don’t look after me. When you call up and say ‘Can you come out to a rally,’ and the only thing that you do is come out to a rally, and you’re not the favourite person of the leader, why should I? Why should I get my 300 people out?”

Mr. Ignatieff resigned as leader of the Liberal Party on Tuesday, after losing his own Etobicoke-Lakeshore, Ont., seat to Conservative MP Bernard Trottier.

Prince Edward Island MP Wayne Easter, re-elected in his Malpeque riding, also expects a sobering readjustment once the new Parliament is convened. Liberals now sit at the far end of the Commons from the Speaker, beyond the new sea of 102 New Democrats occupying the official opposition centre stage.

“It’s going to be an awful shock to some who’ve been in there for a while, when we sit in the House, we’re down in the rump end, and we’ve only got one MP on each committee, there’s reality,” he said.

As the Liberal Party begins rebuilding, it faces a massive financial challenge, losing $1.3-million in Commons financing for the opposition leader’s office, more than $1-million for caucus research support and, just in the short term, $1.7-million in voter subsidies over the next year from Elections Canada because of its plunge in support. Mr. Harper made a campaign pledge to scrap the electoral allowance entirely, saying he would give the parties a phase-in period to adapt, and fundraising will only be more difficult for the Liberals as they move further from power.

The party must now sketch out a road map to replace the departing Mr. Ignatieff, and both Mr. Karygianis and Mr. Easter said an interim leader should be selected by the caucus, set to meet next weekend, for a period of up to one year, or even two, in Mr. Easter’s mind, before a new leader is chosen.

“The last thing we want to do is be hasty. Let’s sit back, let’s not get all excited over here, and plan our strategy well, and give our party the best chance at renewal,” he said.

Mr. Easter favoured Saskatchewan MP Ralph Goodale, the former finance minister and House leader who won re-election in his Wascana riding in Regina, who was also Mr. Ignatieff's deputy leader, while Mr. Karygianis said he would prefer Bob Rae, the former Ontario NDP premier who won re-election as a Liberal in Toronto Centre, Ont.

Mr. Clarkson, whose latest book on the Liberals was published in 2005 and titled How The Liberal Party Dominates Canadian Politics, said the NDP’s takeover of the bridge between Quebec and the rest of Canada, once predominantly held by the Liberals, and the huge chasm between its third-party status and the chance to form government again, is perhaps more important than the financial problems it will face.

“It means [the NDP] have replaced the Liberal Party as the only national party, the way the Liberals could [in the past] say, ‘We’re the only ones that can bridge the bicultural divide,'” said Mr. Clarkson.

Out of power already for the past five years, the next four years of Conservative government will only take the Liberals further away from the allure of government, power, Cabinet posts and patronage, that are essential to maintaining party strength and organization between election battles.

“They’ve got the potential to rebuild, but it’s going to be very tough,” Mr. Clarkson said. “They need an organization and members who are willing to work even though they’re not going to be made Cabinet ministers, and they’re generally only willing to work for that reason if they’ve got something to believe in."

 
[tangent]
I'd argue that Dr Clarkson is best known as the ex-husband of a governor general...
[/tangent]
 
Infanteer said:
Barack Obama was the first half-black, half-white President in a country with a long history of racial issues (including a Civil War) and comes from an academic/political pedigree similar to Harper (graduate degrees, background in politics prior to taking on leadership).  Thoughts of your favorite blogs aside, I'd consider him "somewhat" accomplished (as in, he'll have a legacy) and in a different league than Hilton or Kardashian.
Obama is light years ahead of Hilton and Kardashian, I agree.  I just changed a little thing in your quote, because although he's advertised as black, he's only half-so (not that it matters).
 
The real task for the Liberals is to regain their losses, not from the Conservatives, but rather the NDP. They have to violently and decisively steer the party back to the center, while showing the public that the NDP really is the lunatic fringe. Leave Harper alone most of the time. Set up the NDP rookies, and watch them perform. They need to choose a leader who resonates with Canadians, who has real commonality with them, not some reedy academic that no one outside the party knows. They need to get over Trudeau, both senior and junior. They need to accept that the public doesn't hate Stephen Harper as much as they do. They need a real policy revolution, not some 20 year old rehash of universal child care and R2P. Burn the Red Book, start again. They need to recognize that Canada's armed forces are fighters and peace-makers; forgetting the failed and outdated concept of traditional, blue beret, peacekeeping that's no longer relevant. They need to stop trying to appeal to every special interest, potential vote caucus group out there, and champion the message that we're all Canadians first. They need to get over the idea that "all animals are equal, some are more equal than others". They need to give up their money for nothing appeal to voters. Everything has a cost attached, and the government has no money of its own - it has lots of other people's money, which is finite and needs to be managed carefully.

However, in order to steer towards the center they need to put the car in gear. It's not so much they've lost their way, but rather that they used their map to start a fire and are now almost irrevocably lost.
 
ModlrMike said:
The real task for the Liberals is to regain their losses, not from the Conservatives, but rather the NDP. They have to violently and decisively steer the party back to the center, while showing the public that the NDP really is the lunatic fringe. Leave Harper alone most of the time. Set up the NDP rookies, and watch them perform. They need to choose a leader who resonates with Canadians, who has real commonality with them, not some reedy academic that no one outside the party knows. They need to get over Trudeau, both senior and junior. They need to accept that the public doesn't hate Stephen Harper as much as they do. They need a real policy revolution, not some 20 year old rehash of universal child care and R2P. Burn the Red Book, start again. They need to recognize that Canada's armed forces are fighters and peace-makers; forgetting the failed and outdated concept of traditional, blue beret, peacekeeping that's no longer relevant. They need to stop trying to appeal to every special interest, potential vote caucus group out there, and champion the message that we're all Canadians first. They need to get over the idea that "all animals are equal, some are more equal than others". They need to give up their money for nothing appeal to voters. Everything has a cost attached, and the government has no money of its own - it has lots of other people's money, which is finite and needs to be managed carefully.

However, in order to steer towards the center they need to put the car in gear. It's not so much they've lost their way, but rather that they used their map to start a fire and are now almost irrevocably lost.

They need to become the Progressive Conservative Party?  ;D

In all seriousness while my great hope is that the Liberal Party of Canada can re-discover it's historic (not recent history) role as a centrist party, I'm not very confident that it will happen.  Liberals on the left side of the party (Bob Rae, etc) may be much more inclined to try and merge the left into a single "socialist-lite" party.  On the other hand there's another core of people that cling to the myth of Trudeau's (the Sr.) "Camelot".  This group would simply try and reinstill in the Canadian public the idea of the Liberal Party as the "natural governing party" of Canada and the only REAL alternative to the Conservatives.  While a faltering NDP opposition might do their part in helping restore the Liberals to official opposition status they will never (in my opinion) get enough support in this way to realistically present an honest challenge to the Conservatives without redefining themselves based on a clear ideology rather than resting on their historical laurels (or sins depending on your point of view!). 

Perhaps the Liberals have too much bad history behind them to rebuild under the Liberal banner.  Will they ever regain the support of the Francophone Quebecois that abandoned them after the repatriation of the Constitution?  Will Albertans ever bring themselves to support a Liberal government after the National Energy Policy? 

Maybe the best solution IS to leave the rump of the Liberal party to a new Liberal-Democrat Left-Centre opposition party and for the right wing of the former Liberals to join the Conservatives and through their presence continue the moderation of the social conservatism of that party that began with the merger of the Reformers and the PC's.
 
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