The War in Ukraine

[suffolkowner]

Pretty much all the OSINT has Russia running out of Tanks and AFV's sometime in the 3/4'er of 2025. The it depends on who you believe as to how many T-90 they can build from scratch annually.

Then of course the who else may supply them group of Iran and North Korea:

North Korea:
aprox 2,000 mixed former Russian T-55 and Chinese Type 59,
~ 1,500 T-62 variants (inc domestically produced versions).
~600 Domestic T-72 variants
~20 Cheonma-2 which seems to be a clone of the South Korean K1 (Early M1 Abram's domestic production in the RoK) with some WTF factor tossed in.
View attachment 88657

Iran:
150 ish Mobarez (a modernized Chieftain)
150-200 M60A1 (unk condition)
2,000+ varying T-72 variants T-72 made under license
400 T72Z (domestic modification of T-62 and Type 59 tanks with Iranian production NATO 105mm M68 gun, and ironically a Ukrainian produced engine) - allegedly withdrawn from service.
400-800 Karrar (the bastard love child of a drunken orgy of a Merkava, Abrams, Challenger, Leopard II and T-90) -
View attachment 88658

Realitically Russia could likely get 5-6k of the T-72 variant and other older models from the Axis of Evil partners.

T90M numbers seem all over the place but based on the 600+ decent tanks left in storage and the rate of attrition I would suggest Russia should look to have a plan for some of those Iranian and NK assets in place for next summer.

How secure does Iran and NK feel in letting them go?

 

[Rudburg]

Pretty much all the OSINT has Russia running out of Tanks and AFV's sometime in the 3/4'er of 2025. The it depends on who you believe as to how many T-90 they can build from scratch annually.

Re T90s, my guess is "not many."

Russian T-90M production: less than meets the eye

The rate of attrition of Russian armour in the war against Ukraine has been staggering. Less transparent, though, is Moscow’s capacity to continue to replace losses and to build or upgrade tanks such as the T-90M.

www.iiss.org

 

[KevinB]

T90M numbers seem all over the place but based on the 600+ decent tanks left in storage and the rate of attrition I would suggest Russia should look to have a plan for some of those Iranian and NK assets in place for next summer.

The attrition rates of older models is pretty high, and the build & refurb model is starting to get holes.

How secure does Iran and NK feel in letting them go?

The older ones I am sure they don’t care.

The new stuff, I doubt it (Nk due to low numbers, and Iran because they probably need them sooner than later).

 

[Skysix]

I'm sure

Imagine it grates on the more Glorious Motherland sort of Russian to be buying from what were previously customers, and especially to be buying basic things like shells on one hand and "tools for terrorists" drones on the other.

Modern nation state, sure; what're the expected outcomes for ten thousand criminal conspiracies wearing a Soviet greatcoat?

As has been said before, Russia is a gas station run by the (Russian) mafia masquerading as a country.

 

[Val St]

https://www.facebook.com/video.php?v=768172134597291

 

[Pelorus]

Couldn't think of a more relevant thread to post this to, from the right-leaning Wall Street Journal:

Elon Musk’s Secret Conversations With Vladimir Putin: Regular contacts between world’s richest man and America’s chief antagonist raise security concerns; topics include geopolitics, business and personal matters

Non paywall-link: https://archive.ph/NFUl9

Some early quotes (emphasis mine):

During his campaign swing through Pennsylvania last week, Musk talked about the importance of government transparency and noted his own access to government secrets. “I do have a top-secret clearance, but, I’d have to say, like most of the stuff that I’m aware of…the reason they keep it top secret is because it’s so boring.”

Musk has long had a fascination with Russia and its space and rocket programs. Walter Isaacson’s biography of Musk said the businessman traveled to Moscow in 2002 to negotiate the purchase of rockets for his fledgling space program, but passed out during a vodka-heavy lunch. The sale ultimately failed, though his Russian hosts gave Musk a bottle of vodka with his likeness superimposed on a drawing of Mars.
The billionaire’s conversations with Putin and Kremlin officials highlight his increasing inclination to stretch beyond business and into geopolitics. He has met several times and talked business with Javier Milei of Argentina, as well as former Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro, whom he defended in an acrimonious online debate.

In October 2022, Musk said publicly that he had spoken only once to Putin. He said on X that the conversation was about space, and that it occurred around April 2021.
But more conversations have followed, including dialogues with other high-ranking Russian officials past 2022 and into this year. One of the officials was Sergei Kiriyenko, Putin’s first deputy chief of staff, two of the officials said. What the two talked about isn’t clear.
Last month, the U.S. Justice Department said in an affidavit that Kiriyenko had created some 30 internet domains to spread Russian disinformation, including on Musk’s X, where it was meant to erode support for Ukraine and manipulate American voters ahead of the presidential election.

After the Russian invasion in February 2022, Musk at first made strong public statements of support for Kyiv. [...]
Later that year, Musk’s view of the conflict appeared to change. In September, Ukrainian military operatives weren’t able to use Starlink terminals to guide sea drones to attack a Russian naval base in Crimea, the Black Sea peninsula Moscow had occupied since 2014. Ukraine tried to persuade Musk to activate the Starlink service in the area, but that didn’t happen, the Journal has reported.
His space company extended restrictions on the use of Starlink in offensive operations by Ukraine. Musk said later that he made the move because Starlink is meant for civilian uses and that he believed any Ukrainian attack on Crimea could spark a nuclear war.
His moves coincided with public and private pressure from the Kremlin. In May 2022, Russia’s space chief said in a post on Telegram that Musk would “answer like an adult” for supplying Starlink to Ukraine’s Azov battalion, which the Kremlin had singled out for the ultraright ideology espoused by some members.
Later in 2022, Musk was having regular conversations with “high-level Russians,” according to a person familiar with the interactions. At the time, there was pressure from the Kremlin on Musk’s businesses and “implicit threats against him,” the person said.

It's a long article, but worth reading in entirely. If nothing else, I would think it should hopefully drive home the point that anything critical to national security shouldn't be exclusively delegated to private industry without appropriate checks and balances, especially any private industry led by a megalomaniac who thinks he can single-handedly develop a solution to complex geopolitical problems.

 

[McG]

Couldn't think of a more relevant thread to post this to …

I’m sure Russia prefers that our cognitive processes lead us to think about Ukraine every time it does something new to destabilize the international order or any western nation, but we do have a whole thread about Russia: Russia in the 21st Century [Superthread]

Elon Musk as a Russian asset (even if just a useful idiot) has had impact in Ukraine, but that seems a bigger deal with more concerns beyond Russia’s floundering invasion.

 

[KevinB]

The modern nation state is capable of just about anything it sets its mind to.

I'd therefore doubt the Russians will be running out of anything, as long as their current structure is intact.

Oxymoron: Modern Russia

Economy in toilet, and many corporations facing looming insolvency. As a result Putin may nationalize more of them, but pushing more and more of his oligarchs away from his inner circle.

Realistically Russia can build at best 190 T-90 a year, and mostly likely less than 45. Additionally those are older models as they cannot get the fire control systems to build newer ones. As seen by data analysis the older tanks have extremely lower survival and effectiveness rates.

Short Range Iskander Missiles are about the only thing Russia can build new (though Turkey is now starting to restrict dual usage chip re-exports so they number will likely crash in the upcoming months as wel).

Ukraine has done a good job with their homemade missiles and LROWUAS to severely crimp Russian petroleum refineries.

The question the West should be asking ourselves very seriously is what is Russia giving Iran and Nk for their support.
— the uncomfortable answer is most likely nuclear technologies to build warheads and ICBM’s.

 

[Rifleman62]

Posted 6 days ago.

Inexperienced North Korean troops no solution to Putin's military 'blunders' | Michael Clarke​

 

[Rudburg]

Economy in toilet, and many corporations facing looming insolvency. As a result Putin may nationalize more of them, but pushing more and more of his oligarchs away from his inner circle.

I would also add that they are taking quite a few casualties and it is not clear how long this can be maintained without imposing serious strains their society.

They certainly have the demographic depth to take their current loss rates without running out of manpower, but it's much less certain that they can do it without a broader mobilization and a mass callup of conscripts. For whatever reason, the Russian leadership seems to believe that a general mobilization might risk a 1917-style scenario and thus be more dangerous than the war itself. So far they have been able to get by with offering incentives to join, in some cases pay, in some cases forgiveness of crimes. However, those are getting expensive:

Russian Regions Hike Military Sign-Up Payments in Bid to Boost Manpower for Ukraine War - The Moscow Times

The Kremlin is increasingly turning to creative measures to boost its troops without formally declaring another unpopular mobilization as Russia's invasion of Ukraine grinds on.

www.themoscowtimes.com

 

[Colin Parkinson]

Couldn't think of a more relevant thread to post this to, from the right-leaning Wall Street Journal:

Elon Musk’s Secret Conversations With Vladimir Putin: Regular contacts between world’s richest man and America’s chief antagonist raise security concerns; topics include geopolitics, business and personal matters

Non paywall-link: https://archive.ph/NFUl9

Some early quotes (emphasis mine):









It's a long article, but worth reading in entirely. If nothing else, I would think it should hopefully drive home the point that anything critical to national security shouldn't be exclusively delegated to private industry without appropriate checks and balances, especially any private industry led by a megalomaniac who thinks he can single-handedly develop a solution to complex geopolitical problems.

Musk is brilliant at building things, but a bit of a mess when it comes to relationships and people skills. I have no doubt that he is the target of a very slick Russian campaign to influence him (and therefore people that follow him) and like any brilliant person quite capable of being duped thanks to a belief they are to smart to be duped.

 

[Colin Parkinson]

I would also add that they are taking quite a few casualties and it is not clear how long this can be maintained without imposing serious strains their society.

They certainly have the demographic depth to take their current loss rates without running out of manpower, but it's much less certain that they can do it without a broader mobilization and a mass callup of conscripts. For whatever reason, the Russian leadership seems to believe that a general mobilization might risk a 1917-style scenario and thus be more dangerous than the war itself. So far they have been able to get by with offering incentives to join, in some cases pay, in some cases forgiveness of crimes. However, those are getting expensive:

Russian Regions Hike Military Sign-Up Payments in Bid to Boost Manpower for Ukraine War - The Moscow Times

The Kremlin is increasingly turning to creative measures to boost its troops without formally declaring another unpopular mobilization as Russia's invasion of Ukraine grinds on.

www.themoscowtimes.com

Apparently the fight in Kursk allows Russia to legally use conscripts and not to pay out the benefits of being part of the "SMO" in Ukraine. The corruption about pay, death benefits, lack of adequate pay, poor medical support for the wounded, use of criminals who go back into society even more messed up is all raising the Russian society towards the boiling point. I don't think anyone knows the tipping point.
The Russian revolution kicked off because the Czar government could not clear the roads of snow, preventing flour to get to the bakeries in St Petersburg. The fuel/air mixture in society was just right for a spark. Just as the Arab Spring came from one man lighting himself on fire. What does the Russian fuel to air mixture look like, is likley keeping a lot of Russian leadership types awake at night. (Along with unexpected requests to look out a open window)

 

[Czech_pivo]

Apparently the fight in Kursk allows Russia to legally use conscripts and not to pay out the benefits of being part of the "SMO" in Ukraine. The corruption about pay, death benefits, lack of adequate pay, poor medical support for the wounded, use of criminals who go back into society even more messed up is all raising the Russian society towards the boiling point. I don't think anyone knows the tipping point.
The Russian revolution kicked off because the Czar government could not clear the roads of snow, preventing flour to get to the bakeries in St Petersburg. The fuel/air mixture in society was just right for a spark. Just as the Arab Spring came from one man lighting himself on fire. What does the Russian fuel to air mixture look like, is likley keeping a lot of Russian leadership types awake at night. (Along with unexpected requests to look out a open window)

To pull on the string a bit more - re: 'fuel/air mixture' - the catalyst could be disrupting (crippling) the main rail lines to Siberia starting in early/mid Dec and right on through to April/May. Cutting off Russia east of the Urals from the western part during the cold months when the main transport method for food supplies is the rail system might be what triggers off the same sort of mass protests as unclear winter roads to St Petersburg did in 1917.

Not sure how the Ukrainians would be able to achieve this but it would have to be wide spread rail wreckage constant in nature. The Russians don't have the air lift ability to move that much food stuffs to the main population centers over a 3-5 month period.

 

[KevinB]

Apparently the fight in Kursk allows Russia to legally use conscripts and not to pay out the benefits of being part of the "SMO" in Ukraine. The corruption about pay, death benefits, lack of adequate pay, poor medical support for the wounded, use of criminals who go back into society even more messed up is all raising the Russian society towards the boiling point. I don't think anyone knows the tipping point.
The Russian revolution kicked off because the Czar government could not clear the roads of snow, preventing flour to get to the bakeries in St Petersburg. The fuel/air mixture in society was just right for a spark. Just as the Arab Spring came from one man lighting himself on fire. What does the Russian fuel to air mixture look like, is likley keeping a lot of Russian leadership types awake at night. (Along with unexpected requests to look out a open window)

I'd suggest that Putin's Russia has been very clever with their mobilization methods -- they are keeping "White Russians" safe in Moscow and St Petersburg and most of the Western areas, while utterly decimating the minorities in meat units.
So for the most part they keep those areas safe, and loyal, as well the National Guard (Rosgvardia) are made up of such loyal members of society (and there are 380k of those).

 

[quadrapiper]

Oxymoron: Modern Russia

Economy in toilet, and many corporations facing looming insolvency. As a result Putin may nationalize more of them, but pushing more and more of his oligarchs away from his inner circle.

And that toilet was stolen from Ukraine.

Pushing them away, or engineering a way to keep them in the manner to which they're accustomed? Today, President Ivanov of Ivanov Conglomerate Inc., tomorrow Director General Ivanov of Third State Manufacturing Directorate. Or whatever.

Realistically Russia can build at best 190 T-90 a year, and mostly likely less than 45. Additionally those are older models as they cannot get the fire control systems to build newer ones. As seen by data analysis the older tanks have extremely lower survival and effectiveness rates.

Short Range Iskander Missiles are about the only thing Russia can build new (though Turkey is now starting to restrict dual usage chip re-exports so they number will likely crash in the upcoming months as wel).

Ukraine has done a good job with their homemade missiles and LROWUAS to severely crimp Russian petroleum refineries.

The question the West should be asking ourselves very seriously is what is Russia giving Iran and Nk for their support.
— the uncomfortable answer is most likely nuclear technologies to build warheads and ICBM’s.

That seems remarkably shortsighted, especially in the case of Iran. NK is China's problem, and too small and boxed in to do much beyond KEEP OUT signs along the border and occasional extortion. They also have nothing I can imagine Russia wanting to own directly.

Iran is big enough, and in a sufficiently bad and unsettled neighbourhood, to consider pursuing a more active approach, and has no particular reason to be friends with Russia. They also have oil and a congenial climate. All of these things will be true regardless of who's running Iran.

I would also add that they are taking quite a few casualties and it is not clear how long this can be maintained without imposing serious strains their society.

They certainly have the demographic depth to take their current loss rates without running out of manpower, but it's much less certain that they can do it without a broader mobilization and a mass callup of conscripts. For whatever reason, the Russian leadership seems to believe that a general mobilization might risk a 1917-style scenario and thus be more dangerous than the war itself.

Wonder how much Wagner's run at Moscow increased those worries. If the handpicked, well-paid force will rise up, what of 100,000 (or whatever) men who likely feel they've done their bit for the Motherland, now wrenched from whatever better-than-the-Army (otherwise, they'd probably already have volunteered!) life they've acquired?

 

[quadrapiper]

To pull on the string a bit more - re: 'fuel/air mixture' - the catalyst could be disrupting (crippling) the main rail lines to Siberia starting in early/mid Dec and right on through to April/May. Cutting off Russia east of the Urals from the western part during the cold months when the main transport method for food supplies is the rail system might be what triggers off the same sort of mass protests as unclear winter roads to St Petersburg did in 1917.

Not sure how the Ukrainians would be able to achieve this but it would have to be wide spread rail wreckage constant in nature. The Russians don't have the air lift ability to move that much food stuffs to the main population centers over a 3-5 month period.

Living where I do, rail=big, fragile bridges everywhere. Does this hold true for the Russian lines?

 

[KevinB]

And that toilet was stolen from Ukraine.

True

Pushing them away, or engineering a way to keep them in the manner to which they're accustomed? Today, President Ivanov of Ivanov Conglomerate Inc., tomorrow Director General Ivanov of Third State Manufacturing Directorate. Or whatever.

I tend to doubt they will be involved at all, more like RIP Ivan who fell from a window...

That seems remarkably shortsighted, especially in the case of Iran. NK is China's problem, and too small and boxed in to do much beyond KEEP OUT signs along the border and occasional extortion. They also have nothing I can imagine Russia wanting to own directly.

NK has people, and a lot of equipment...

Iran is big enough, and in a sufficiently bad and unsettled neighbourhood, to consider pursuing a more active approach, and has no particular reason to be friends with Russia. They also have oil and a congenial climate. All of these things will be true regardless of who's running Iran.

For years Russia propped Iran up -- they have a lot of mutual enemies

Wonder how much Wagner's run at Moscow increased those worries. If the handpicked, well-paid force will rise up, what of 100,000 (or whatever) men who likely feel they've done their bit for the Motherland, now wrenched from whatever better-than-the-Army (otherwise, they'd probably already have volunteered!) life they've acquired?

Well the Russians had some foresight - they started recruiting Wagner folks right after...

 

[quadrapiper]

True

I tend to doubt they will be involved at all, more like RIP Ivan who fell from a window...

NK has people, and a lot of equipment...

But nothing that Russia would want to invade to grab at some future point. Plus, any change in NK's status seems like it would be more damaging to the West than anyone else: even reunification tomorrow would mean the ROK having to assume a decades-long whole-society rebuilding project.

For years Russia propped Iran up -- they have a lot of mutual enemies

They do that, but it doesn't seem like much in the way of shared interests beyond that? And Iran is Ukraine but Muslim, and a regime change away from being another Turkey.

 

[GR66]

Reports that North Korean soldiers have begun showing up in the Kursk region and are apparently being prepared for combat operations....and the Russians and being Russian about it...

https://www.cnn.com/2024/10/25/europe/russian-soldiers-north-korean-recruits-intercepts-intl/index.html

 

[Czech_pivo]

Living where I do, rail=big, fragile bridges everywhere. Does this hold true for the Russian lines?

Lots of wide, wide rivers to bridge in Siberia, so, 100% yes.

How many bridges does the Trans-Siberian Railway cross? The Trans-Siberian railroad crosses 16 large rivers, including the Volga, the Irtysh, the Kama, the Ob, the Yenisei, the Amur, and some others. The total number of bridges that the train passes from start to finish is 3901.

I see a target rich environment here.