The War in Ukraine

[childs56]

What are they going to do about it?

Realistically if the US had put troops in Ukraine and said if a single American dies in this invasion we will be at war, Russia would never have invaded. Instead the US pulled out it's troops beforehand basically giving Russia the green light to invade.

Russia can't fully fight Ukraine a country everyone figured would be taken out in 3 weeks by Russia, there is no chance in hell they could take on NATO. If they don't like it thats tough.

I still believe the large NATO exercise just before Russia launched their massive assault was to draw NATO troops in where Putin would have used non conventional weapons to attempt to disable/ take out a large portion of equipment on European land.
That's my feeling on the matter.

 

[daftandbarmy]

What are they going to do about it?

Realistically if the US had put troops in Ukraine and said if a single American dies in this invasion we will be at war, Russia would never have invaded. Instead the US pulled out it's troops beforehand basically giving Russia the green light to invade.

Russia can't fully fight Ukraine a country everyone figured would be taken out in 3 weeks by Russia, there is no chance in hell they could take on NATO. If they don't like it thats tough.

NATO's long standing 'tripwire' policy enters the chat...


During the Cold War and in the decades that followed, NATO marked its presence by deploying limited armed forces to areas of geopolitical tension.

These military units, rather than representing an "offensive threat," given their size, were primarily intended to deter any potential aggressor. In other words, the Alliance warns that it will respond collectively if one of its soldiers is attacked on NATO territory. This is the "tripwire" strategy.

What is NATO's 'tripwire' strategy and is it still relevant today?

Has reinforcing troops on Europe's eastern flank helped scare off enemies? Russia doesn't seem to be intimidated.

www.euronews.com

 

[Halifax Tar]

NATO's long standing 'tripwire' policy enters the chat...


During the Cold War and in the decades that followed, NATO marked its presence by deploying limited armed forces to areas of geopolitical tension.

These military units, rather than representing an "offensive threat," given their size, were primarily intended to deter any potential aggressor. In other words, the Alliance warns that it will respond collectively if one of its soldiers is attacked on NATO territory. This is the "tripwire" strategy.

What is NATO's 'tripwire' strategy and is it still relevant today?

Has reinforcing troops on Europe's eastern flank helped scare off enemies? Russia doesn't seem to be intimidated.

www.euronews.com

I think NATO understands once that tripwire is triggered Pandora has been released.

I'm cool to go to war once that's triggered, but I want a total war economy and society for Canada and all NATO counties. It's 1939 or 1942 all over again for NATO nations.

If we're going to do this it's going to be our soul focus until it's over.

 

[Kirkhill]

A great idea.

Let's call them something other than peacekeepers then.

Hmmmm... how about 'Peace Makers'. Then the US troops can issue a new Colt sidearm in honour of the mission

What is the 8th Army on the Korean DMZ called?

 

[KevinB]

What is the 8th Army on the Korean DMZ called?

Well other than it’s a paper HQ…
It’s subordinate to I Corps.

But yeah the only difference in this is that it wouldn’t be a force of the US Army (and USMC) but a NATO primarily Euro centric Corps plus formation.

 

[daftandbarmy]

What is the 8th Army on the Korean DMZ called?

A coiled spring....

 

[Kirkhill]

Well other than it’s a paper HQ…
It’s subordinate to I Corps.

But yeah the only difference in this is that it wouldn’t be a force of the US Army (and USMC) but a NATO primarily Euro centric Corps plus formation.

Let Europe supply the infantry and cavalry. And the US the artillery (including but not limited to MDTFs, SSGNs, USAF and other long range fires).

No Yanks need operate within 500 km of the DMZ.

 

[Kirkhill]

Well other than it’s a paper HQ…
It’s subordinate to I Corps.

But yeah the only difference in this is that it wouldn’t be a force of the US Army (and USMC) but a NATO primarily Euro centric Corps plus formation.

And has access to the 2nd/7th Inf Div out of Lewis-McChord, the 25th in Hawaii and the IIth Abn in Alaska. It also incorporates the 1st and 3rd MDTFs with their evolving LRPF/Strat Fires Battalions the Air Defence Battalions, in addition to the existing AD Brigade.

 

[foresterab]

Let Europe supply the infantry and cavalry. And the US the artillery (including but not limited to MDTFs, SSGNs, USAF and other long range fires).

No Yanks need operate within 500 km of the DMZ.

So what does Canada supply?

Needs to be mobile/responsive, and somewhat timely.

RCN ocean control is one mission sure.

RCAF maritime air space/F-35 reinforcement? I also think of strategic air lift to get undamaged factory/depot supplies to Europe to replace losses.

Canadian Army? DART (hospitals), Artillery (always a friend especially if long range), Reinforcement brigade to fly over supply? Artic operations?

 

[Kirkhill]

So what does Canada supply?

Needs to be mobile/responsive, and somewhat timely.

RCN ocean control is one mission sure.

RCAF maritime air space/F-35 reinforcement? I also think of strategic air lift to get undamaged factory/depot supplies to Europe to replace losses.

Canadian Army? DART (hospitals), Artillery (always a friend especially if long range), Reinforcement brigade to fly over supply? Artic operations?

Does anybody really care?

 

[GR66]

Ongoing aggressive Russian actions in the Baltic. This time against a French MPA:

French Navy ATL2 aircraft targeted by Russian S400 SAM in Baltic Incident - Naval News

In the night of Wednesday and Thursday, a French Navy Atlantique 2 maritime patrol aircraft (MPA) was subject to jamming and was locked by the fire-control radar of a Russian S400 air defense system.

www.navalnews.com

 

[foresterab]

Does anybody really care?

I think critical mass counts....and if it's not mass it better be extremely effective.

If we're offering 2x 105 artillery pieces then it's not even statistical noise. Two fully armed, equipped modern battalions of long range fire capacity might make more sense if you can replace 20% of Poland's supplies overnight (212 pieces of Krab self propelled 155 Artillery).

Which boils back down to the unfortunately state of the CAF as it sits today...and in reply to your comment...today...I don't think people care much.
Sending a six pack of 50 year old CF-18's doesn't really stack up to the Vermont National Guard flying F-35's and who is getting called first.

And if you're not providing mass, your not providing capability then you a minimum better have infrastructure to support. But look...we purchasing artillery ammunition from South Korea and the US instead of making it here...so we're short there too.

So it sounds negative...because frankly Canada (and the CAF) are not in a good place. It is truly "politics through other means" and if you don't have the means to do warfare you're not invited to the political discussion.

So before de-railing the thread from the core information on the Ukraine it does make me think of what steps Canada could take to start the progress of growing up and being serious.
1) Up the production of LAV units. Might not be the right unit long term but it's what we have and a truly effective fleet would be a big change.
2) Purchase significant armour from the US. Leopards are good but with Australia also using M1's go with an fleet that can be used east or west directions.
3) Sign a modern artillery shell supply agreement(s) and up production to create true war stocks.
4) Purchase the guns to use said shells + Spares + reserves.
5) Re-build the railway to Churchill for effective rail transport. Get serious about Artic infrastructure including not just main airstrips but alternate strips.
6) Get serious about base infrastructure. I want to see ever CAF assigned to the base under current manning have available modern quarters and not WW2 buildings. Build so there is the bones present to expand if needed under WW3.
7) Turn Yellowknife? Churchill? Tuktuyuktuk into an Artic Warfare school respected NATO wide. The MAPLE FLAG of the north every year.

Many more thoughts that would need more input on Maritime Patrol, Air Interception, Strategic Airlift, and units but they're much slower pieces to move.