The War in Ukraine

[CBH99]

This is definitely a big red flag, and I think I remember saying earlier that the Houthis don’t need to utterly interdict the strait, but just make shipping there uninsurable.

Coupled with how dismal the U.S. has shown its ability to put logistics ashore to be (see Gaza pier/JLOTS), and there are very real concerns about some aspects of America’s ability to project naval force.

Now, nobody comes close to challenging them in blue water naval affairs… And that’s great for the Atlantic and Pacific moats. Not sure what it means for credible deterrence in the Taiwanese littoral, though.

Flip side, Ukraine has shown how hideously the balance has shifted to defensive firepower. Hopefully the Taiwanese have taken these lessons to heart and are ready to smother a Chinese amphibious force with drone swarms and other higher end munitions- and to swat down a massive airmobile assault aimed at facilitating that first beachhead.

When China decides it’s go time, what will really matter will only be what the U.S. can bring to the first within the first two or three days. The success of a beachhead will be conclusively determined in that window; neither side will get a mulligan.

The more time goes on (I'm measuring in years and decades here) the more I'm thinking China will play the long game with Taiwan, and use subversion & intelligence assets to slowly influence Taiwan from the inside out...

China has a pending population crash, aka crisis. Their population is slated go crash to just over half of what it is now as the parents of the 1-Child Policy slowly pass away, with only one child to replace the two parents.

Losing even 50,000 military aged males in an invasion of Taiwan will exasperate that problem. Not only that, but unless they expect their members to stay in the PLA for life, their troops will start to age out or leave the PLA at some point - and won't be replaceable at an equal rate.


China has long played the long game. Their foreign policy goals & strategies are measured in decades, with some bold and brave ideas meticulously calculated using those same time spans (whereas ours are really worked towards in ever changing 3 year chunks)

While China may one day decide to just go all in and take Taiwan, I really am thinking they'll perhaps start to go the route of subversion. It only takes a few people on the inside of the right government circles to start to slowly (very slowly) start planting the seeds needed to take the country without the need for a big invasion of the PLA in all its glory...

 

[suffolkowner]

Hyperbole with no evidence. They must have stolen a lot of washing machines to keep up their strategic bombardment campaign through 2+ years of warfare

I've reiterated throughout the past 2+ years that we need a shift in our mentality. Our leadership is arrogant, egotistical and foolish. There is an Axis of Countries that has now grown strong enough to challenge our so called "Rules Based International Order" and they know it. The worst part is that if a larger war were to break out, our leaders would have no support and there is a very big chance we would lose the war.

There are many ongoing events in the World right now, which I believe are inter-related. I think China is planning to conquer Taiwan and I think it will happen soon. They are clearly rehearsing it and conducting tests for this very purpose. Than there is the ongoing war in Gaza which people on this site would be over in a fortnite, has shown no signs of resolution and which I believe Israel is currently losing.

We won't even speak about the ongoing crisis in the Red Sea which the US Navy has shown themselves to be utterly incapable of keeping a vital SLOC open. That was a pretty good signal to the Chinese that they shouldn't fear US Naval Power.

I would like to see the West pivot the economy and make significant investments in infrastructure and the means of production. We should be retooling our economy for war but we are too busy dealing with social issues.

We should as the west be reindustrializing but that requires some corporate cooperation as well but there is some progress there
A lot of slippage in the sanctions on Russia witness the trade through the Central Asian countries
I too can see China making a move on Taiwan sooner rather than later
On Gaza and Israel, Im not sure there's a win there
The Red sea fiasco is at least partly do to not dealing with the sources, Im not sure that correlates with Pacific naval warfare plus how much does the Red sea impact North American trade? I know the cost of container shipping has gone up considerably but is that just on those around AFrica routes?

The more time goes on (I'm measuring in years and decades here) the more I'm thinking China will play the long game with Taiwan, and use subversion & intelligence assets to slowly influence Taiwan from the inside out...

China has a pending population crash, aka crisis. Their population is slated go crash to just over half of what it is now as the parents of the 1-Child Policy slowly pass away, with only one child to replace the two parents.

Losing even 50,000 military aged males in an invasion of Taiwan will exasperate that problem. Not only that, but unless they expect their members to stay in the PLA for life, their troops will start to age out or leave the PLA at some point - and won't be replaceable at an equal rate.


China has long played the long game. Their foreign policy goals & strategies are measured in decades, with some bold and brave ideas meticulously calculated using those same time spans (whereas ours are really worked towards in ever changing 3 year chunks)

While China may one day decide to just go all in and take Taiwan, I really am thinking they'll perhaps start to go the route of subversion. It only takes a few people on the inside of the right government circles to start to slowly (very slowly) start planting the seeds needed to take the country without the need for a big invasion of the PLA in all its glory...

I wouldnt be so sure on Taiwan/China just look at the Ukraine/Russia situation. At the beginning i said that Russia attacking Ukraine would be the biggest mistake that Putler could make while at the same time saying if he could take it with 50,000 in losses that it would be a good deal.

Id take Taiwan at the cost of 50,000 men as well. Nations and dictators can not always be expected to make rational decisions or at least not use the same logical framework of a western democratic one

 

[suffolkowner]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1796906973608202369

On munitions use in Ukraine, while there might be some restrictions the above doesnt seem like one of them at least not from a industrial capacity point for this class at least

 

[Brad Sallows]

When China decides it’s go time, what will really matter will only be what the U.S. can bring to the first within the first two or three days. The success of a beachhead will be conclusively determined in that window; neither side will get a mulligan.

Air forces will matter a lot.

Taiwan is basically a mountain range with some coastal plains around the edges. A beachhead established by day 4 and cut off on day 6 won't be viable and the forces there won't be able to go anywhere useful very fast.

 

[brihard]

Air forces will matter a lot.

Taiwan is basically a mountain range with some coastal plains around the edges. A beachhead established by day 4 and cut off on day 6 won't be viable and the forces there won't be able to go anywhere useful very fast.

Yeah but I think if/once they gain lodgement, taking it away through naval/air power would be exceptionally difficult. Taiwan is thoroughly within China’s ability to project force, they can easily circle the island with aircraft and ships capable of air defence, supported by a ton of mainland ground-based aircraft. They would be far more prepared for a war of attrition in their and Taiwan’s littoral than the U.S. would. The U.S. would face an immediate and critical decision to go fully to war with China to stop that lodgement, or not.

That lodgement needs to never happen, Taiwan knows this and knows that the U.S. is not a sufficiently reliable ally to stake their existence on. So they need the capability in-house to stop the PLA from establishing itself ashore in the first place.

Taiwan is, at least, highly defensible.

 

[suffolkowner]

Yeah but I think if/once they gain lodgement, taking it away through naval/air power would be exceptionally difficult. Taiwan is thoroughly within China’s ability to project force, they can easily circle the island with aircraft and ships capable of air defence, supported by a ton of mainland ground-based aircraft. They would be far more prepared for a war of attrition in their and Taiwan’s littoral than the U.S. would. The U.S. would face an immediate and critical decision to go fully to war with China to stop that lodgement, or not.

That lodgement needs to never happen, Taiwan knows this and knows that the U.S. is not a sufficiently reliable ally to stake their existence on. So they need the capability in-house to stop the PLA from establishing itself ashore in the first place.

Taiwan is, at least, highly defensible.

I question the resolve to support Taiwan. I question the ability of the US to engage China over Taiwan and how that confrontation would avoid becoming nuclear.
How long can Taiwan hold out if blockaded?

 

[Colin Parkinson]

The more time goes on (I'm measuring in years and decades here) the more I'm thinking China will play the long game with Taiwan, and use subversion & intelligence assets to slowly influence Taiwan from the inside out...

China has a pending population crash, aka crisis. Their population is slated go crash to just over half of what it is now as the parents of the 1-Child Policy slowly pass away, with only one child to replace the two parents.

Losing even 50,000 military aged males in an invasion of Taiwan will exasperate that problem. Not only that, but unless they expect their members to stay in the PLA for life, their troops will start to age out or leave the PLA at some point - and won't be replaceable at an equal rate.


China has long played the long game. Their foreign policy goals & strategies are measured in decades, with some bold and brave ideas meticulously calculated using those same time spans (whereas ours are really worked towards in ever changing 3 year chunks)

While China may one day decide to just go all in and take Taiwan, I really am thinking they'll perhaps start to go the route of subversion. It only takes a few people on the inside of the right government circles to start to slowly (very slowly) start planting the seeds needed to take the country without the need for a big invasion of the PLA in all its glory...

China was doing that and was seeing some success. Then Hong Kong happened and everyone saw the future of Taiwan if they continued down the path Beijing wanted. That avenue is quite dead, likley for good.

 

[Skysix]

That’s pretty much the end of the OS takes from what I can see — but I think the author is a moron.

"Kamil Galeev is an independent researcher and a journalist residing in Moscow. His main focus of interest is identity politics in post-Soviet Russia, the ethnification of Russian nationalism and the crackdown on the ethnic republics. Galeev completed a Master’s in Economics and Management at Peking University China and then an MLitt in History at St Andrews, the UK."

Obviously an unbiased expert in military production

 

[KevinB]

Hyperbole with no evidence. They must have stolen a lot of washing machines to keep up their strategic bombardment campaign through 2+ years of warfare

Evidence? The NK rockets and missiles make up a vast amount of the recent attacks. That’s OS. When you look at what is flattening Kharkiv, the bulk isn’t Russian munitions.

OS images show the fact Russia isn’t making new tanks at any rate and where simply refurbishing old ones - with a solitary single factory about to plunk out 2-3 T-90 a month. That’s not a wartime operation

I've reiterated throughout the past 2+ years that we need a shift in our mentality. Our leadership is arrogant, egotistical and foolish.

110%

There is an Axis of Countries that has now grown strong enough to challenge our so called "Rules Based International Order" and they know it.

I will disagree with you there. Our issue is will not power. We aren’t willing to use our power at this point (well the Western Leadership isn’t). The Axis don’t have the same degree of power, but they do have the will.

The worst part is that if a larger war were to break out, our leaders would have no support and there is a very big chance we would lose the war.

The US Military is still the big kid on the block and can project globally if there is a will. The biggest issue is our lack of will.

There are many ongoing events in the World right now, which I believe are inter-related. I think China is planning to conquer Taiwan and I think it will happen soon. They are clearly rehearsing it and conducting tests for this very purpose.

Agreed.

Than there is the ongoing war in Gaza which people on this site would be over in a fortnite, has shown no signs of resolution and which I believe Israel is currently losing.

Make no mistake should Israel decide to, they could reduce the Arab world to glass — it is in all of our best interests that they not feel they need to.

We won't even speak about the ongoing crisis in the Red Sea which the US Navy has shown themselves to be utterly incapable of keeping a vital SLOC open. That was a pretty good signal to the Chinese that they shouldn't fear US Naval Power.

There is again a big difference between the will to do something, and the ability to do it. XVIII Airborne could be in Yemen tomorrow and clearing the zone, with air and sea support.

I would like to see the West pivot the economy and make significant investments in infrastructure and the means of production. We should be retooling our economy for war but we are too busy dealing with social issues.

Agreed, the west continues to want to ostrich for the most part.

The most frustrating to me, is we have clear evidence of the Russians conducting hostile actions against NATO countries and we keep trying to downplay it - as well as Chinese vessels attempting to ‘accidentally’ cut transatlantic and Baltic communication lines on the seabed.

 

[CBH99]

Evidence? The NK rockets and missiles make up a vast amount of the recent attacks. That’s OS. When you look at what is flattening Kharkiv, the bulk isn’t Russian munitions.

OS images show the fact Russia isn’t making new tanks at any rate and where simply refurbishing old ones - with a solitary single factory about to plunk out 2-3 T-90 a month. That’s not a wartime operation



110%


I will disagree with you there. Our issue is will not power. We aren’t willing to use our power at this point (well the Western Leadership isn’t). The Axis don’t have the same degree of power, but they do have the will.


The US Military is still the big kid on the block and can project globally if there is a will. The biggest issue is our lack of will.


Agreed.


Make no mistake should Israel decide to, they could reduce the Arab world to glass — it is in all of our best interests that they not feel they need to.


There is again a big difference between the will to do something, and the ability to do it. XVIII Airborne could be in Yemen tomorrow and clearing the zone, with air and sea support.


Agreed, the west continues to want to ostrich for the most part.

The most frustrating to me, is we have clear evidence of the Russians conducting hostile actions against NATO countries and we keep trying to downplay it - as well as Chinese vessels attempting to ‘accidentally’ cut transatlantic and Baltic communication lines on the seabed.

Can't wait to hear their excuse when they 'accidentally' cut the Fibre-optic lines on the bottom of a sea or ocean.

One does not do such thighs accidentally...it's almost impossible really.


And I totally agree with you. It's the west's collective lack of vision, lack of initiative, and lack of long term planning that have left us feeling the consequences of our leaders gone arrogant and incompetent (my opinion) - but the lack of will is evident & important

 

[KevinB]

Can't wait to hear their excuse when they 'accidentally' cut the Fibre-optic lines on the bottom of a sea or ocean.

Or the GPS jamming conducted at a number of European airports out of Kaliningrad…

One does not do such thighs accidentally...it's almost impossible really.

Well leaving anchors that dredge the sea bottom is clearly an accident right?

And I totally agree with you. It's the west's collective lack of vision, lack of initiative, and lack of long term planning that have left us feeling the consequences of our leaders gone arrogant and incompetent (my opinion) - but the lack of will is evident & important

There are some shining examples however in Europe. I just hope they can raise the rest up rather than be dragged down.

 

[brihard]

There is again a big difference between the will to do something, and the ability to do it. XVIII Airborne could be in Yemen tomorrow and clearing the zone, with air and sea support.

Thing being, that success would last exactly as long as they remain on the ground and no longer.

 

[KevinB]

Thing being, that success would last exactly as long as they remain on the ground and no longer.

Again an issue of will.

Sometimes the eventual answer you need to come to is “Kill them all”.

*I’m not suggesting ethnic cleansing, but a targeted killing operation to remove any and all militants. It also requires pulling on one’s big boy pants and dealing with Iran.

Part of the issue stems from folks like Jake Sullivan who feel we can trap enemies into a tar baby and eventually they will get tired - not realizing that they have a totally different society than the West.

 

[suffolkowner]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1796961078305272112

This crap has to end as well

 

[KevinB]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1796961078305272112

This crap has to end as well

We are incredibly short sighted in our vision in the West these days.

 

[Rudburg]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1796961078305272112

This crap has to end as well

Am I reading the chart right? Exports have gone from $500K to $2m over two years?

 

[suffolkowner]

Am I reading the chart right? Exports have gone from $500K to $2m over two years?

yeah some of it is crazy i think this guy regularly posts graphs on exports to Central Asia from all of NATO/West and its bad. Also the Central Asian states reports of their imports show the gap of how much is transferred to Russia

Another stupid thing, thanks Belgium

https://twitter.com/x/status/1796951907375653366

 

[KevinB]

Am I reading the chart right? Exports have gone from $500K to $2m over two years?

It’s bad, and Canada and the US are pretty terrible at it too.

 

[suffolkowner]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1795796671898546290

https://twitter.com/x/status/1796938834103431366

https://twitter.com/x/status/1796180307567116598

on and on it goes

 

[Rudburg]

It’s bad, and Canada and the US are pretty terrible at it too.

I agree that we should be watching to prevent re-exporting of meaningful goods to Russia. But it looks to me like he is playing games with statistics here - yes, the value rose by more than 100%, but $2m in imports is still basically nothing by global economic standards. $2m in goods might only fill up one or two rail cars.

The total value of Kyrgyzstan's exports is about $3 billion, and about half of that goes to Russia. Trade Profile - Kyrgyzstan - International Trade Portal.