The War in Ukraine

[Good2Golf]

Worth a quick revisit with the volume turned up…

https://twitter.com/x/status/1798729557287248309

(U.S.) Veteran as a barometer of Canada in the world:

US vet: “And who are you?”

Trudeau: “Oh, sorry. Justin Trudeau, Canadian Prime Minister. And this is President Zylinskyy
Of…”

US vet: “Oh I know who he is!” [pulls hand away from Trudeau, grabs and kisses Zylinskyy’s hand…]

 

[KevinB]

So to those good wIth defense economics math, what percentage of US GDP is actually spent on directly related NATO military expenditure? We give countries like Luxemburg or Belgium heck for not meeting the 2% target but ALL of their defense spending contributes to NATO as they have no overseas troops or bases to support or a blue water navy that spends most of its time in the Pacific.

Would be interesting to split off the GDP percentage focussed on the Middle East and China and see if the US actually does meet the 2% target when it is evaluated on the same playing field as the Baltics etc.

NATO doesn’t require that the 2% be tied directly to NATO just to defense. Canada would be in an absolutely Shit state of that was the case.

 

[Rudburg]

There is a long article in today's Globe and Mail that discusses a Ukrainian SOF team through the course of the war. An elite squad of Ukrainian fighters has been battling Russian occupation on the front lines. This is the story of their war

 

[YZT580]

Doesn't the offer of Mirage fighters simply complicate the logistics stream for Ukraine. As I see it, unless France is willing to supply the maintenance for the A/C it would require a complete training package for armourers, mechanics, flight planners as well as for pilots and they are only offering 4 a/c. Doesn't seem worth the effort except for the PR benefits. Focusing on a single a/c type was the stated reason for Sweden withdrawing the Gripon offer

 

[brihard]

Doesn't the offer of Mirage fighters simply complicate the logistics stream for Ukraine. As I see it, unless France is willing to supply the maintenance for the A/C it would require a complete training package for armourers, mechanics, flight planners as well as for pilots and they are only offering 4 a/c. Doesn't seem worth the effort except for the PR benefits. Focusing on a single a/c type was the stated reason for Sweden withdrawing the Gripon offer

Mirages have the advantage of being a modern 4th gen fighter that is outside of the control of the U.S. slow-roll. Ukraine could have had F-16s a long time ago. They still have none.

I expect France will be playing ball and assisting Ukraine with maintenance and logistics. We forget how expeditionary and active France’s military has been these last several decades; they’re live to the challenges. There are also at least several dozen Mirages that could probably be eventually transferred to Ukraine.

What we have the luxury of considering ‘worth it’, and what Ukraine, fighting for its very existence, considers ‘worth it’, probably differ. They can’t worry as much about efficiencies when survival is at stake.

 

[KevinB]

The French have also committed to training and equipping a complete Ukrainian Bde.

 

[brihard]

The French have also committed to training and equipping a complete Ukrainian Bde.

I’d love to know what the model for that looks like- new troops vs experienced, field grade leadership, staff training… All the stuff that will make it a fightable brigade versus a brigade’s worth of platoon attacks.

 

[KevinB]

I’d love to know what the model for that looks like- new troops vs experienced, field grade leadership, staff training… All the stuff that will make it a fightable brigade versus a brigade’s worth of platoon attacks.

Sounds like they plan on taking their time with the training. But utterly unknown on how the experience mix will shake out.

 

[daftandbarmy]

I’d love to know what the model for that looks like- new troops vs experienced, field grade leadership, staff training… All the stuff that will make it a fightable brigade versus a brigade’s worth of platoon attacks.

I wonder how this course is going....

Operation UNIFIER supports Ukraine's military leadership development training in Latvia​

"LDTE is focused on delivering the Battalion Staff Officer Training (BSOT) course," said Lieutenant-Colonel (LCol) Matthew Johns, LDTE Course Director. "This course is designed to increase the effectiveness of Ukrainian officers in coordinating the operations of their battalions."

Operation UNIFIER supports Ukraine's military leadership development training in Latvia

The Canadian Armed Forces (CAF) and the Latvian National Armed Forces (LNAF) are working together in delivering leadership development training to junior officers of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU).

www.canada.ca

 

[KevinB]

I’m more concerned of the apparent lack of Bde and Division training.

 

[rmc_wannabe]

.

I wonder how this course is going....

Actually quite well.

A few of my colleagues have returned from the first Rotos and said the shift in perspective has been monumental.

Understanding that the desire to kill as many Russians as possible has been a prevailing attitude since Feb 2022, LDTE (or AOC Lite, as it was pitched as) is shifting the tactical thinking to economy of effort, conservation and concentration of force, and OPP has yielded positive feedback and results.

It has shown results on the battlefield, in that the AFU was able to keep fighting while the U.S. Congress played fuck-fuck games. Knowing that, yes, you can take out that Russian mortar pit with an ATACMS ; but it might be better used to take out the GLOC and starve the ammunition supply first.

 

[Retired AF Guy]

Justin Bronk over at RUSI had some interesting observations on the UAF pilot training program(s) and issues vs proficiency.

Here is Bronk discussing that issue with Ward Carroll:

 

[FJAG]

Doesn't the offer of Mirage fighters simply complicate the logistics stream for Ukraine. As I see it, unless France is willing to supply the maintenance for the A/C it would require a complete training package for armourers, mechanics, flight planners as well as for pilots and they are only offering 4 a/c. Doesn't seem worth the effort except for the PR benefits. Focusing on a single a/c type was the stated reason for Sweden withdrawing the Gripon offer

Short article on issues that India has in keeping their "foreign built" Mirage aircraft supplied with parts and maintenance.

 

[dapaterson]

Short article on issues that India has in keeping their "foreign built" Mirage aircraft supplied with parts and maintenance.

Much like the Iranian challenges in keeping their F14s flying.

 

[KevinB]

Much like the Iranian challenges in keeping their F14s flying.

Well the issue would be France would want to keep the Mirages in Ukraine flying as opposed to complete apathy about India’s. We just embargoed the crap out of the Iranian F-14’s (and Twin Huey’s chuckle chuckle…) that they because very hard to keep flying.

 

[Cloud Cover]

Mirages have the advantage of being a modern 4th gen fighter that is outside of the control of the U.S. slow-roll. Ukraine could have had F-16s a long time ago. They still have none.

I expect France will be playing ball and assisting Ukraine with maintenance and logistics. We forget how expeditionary and active France’s military has been these last several decades; they’re live to the challenges. There are also at least several dozen Mirages that could probably be eventually transferred to Ukraine.

What we have the luxury of considering ‘worth it’, and what Ukraine, fighting for its very existence, considers ‘worth it’, probably differ. They can’t worry as much about efficiencies when survival is at stake.

It would be nice if these aircraft also came with a decent supply of ammunition, missiles, bombs, parts etc. I suspect they will… Also, the UAE has a number of these particular Mirage aircraft in storage.

 

[Cloud Cover]

Roy from somewhere in Canada posts a good video of Ukraine specialist converting recovered damaged M830A1 HEAT tank rounds from a M1 Abrams, likely to be used as dropped munitions on a Baba Yaga (aka Vampire) Quadracopter drone.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1799381495066525832

 

[SeaKingTacco]

Specialist, huh? With safety sandals.

I know that needs must, but it is frankly terrifying watching them chisel away at HE rounds…

 

[FJAG]

I presume those come with a fuze safety that doesn't clear until after firing. How do they compensate for that so that if the round is merely dropped rather than fired?

 

[KevinB]

I presume those come with a fuze safety that doesn't clear until after firing. How do they compensate for that so that if the round is merely dropped rather than fired?

I believe that based on some other stuff they have done to drop 105 and 155mm shells they they remove some of the safety components and simply make it a direct impact fuse - which is a fairly expensive waste of the round and fuse.

Not to mention dangerous as all fuck.
Paging @AmmoTech90

A tank HEAT shell dropped from above seems to be significant overkill, I’m not sure as to the WHY of the approach on this.