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The War in Ukraine

Ukraine now 3km further into Russia near Kursk with a mechanised brigade assault and air cover than Russia was during the rebuffed Karkiv offensive. A bit more mass than a raid into good tank country that does not have in depth defenses and minefields.

Even if not militarily operationally sound, it will have an outsized effect in the Russian psyche and cause reduction of many of the pre-positioned forces Russia was about to launch against Ukraine.


 
Skysix said:
Ukraine now 3km further into Russia near Kursk with a mechanised brigade assault and air cover than Russia was during the rebuffed Karkiv offensive. A bit more mass than a raid into good tank country that does not have in depth defenses and minefields.

Even if not militarily operationally sound, it will have an outsized effect in the Russian psyche and cause reduction of many of the pre-positioned forces Russia was about to launch against Ukraine.
Click to expand...
I wonder if there is any chance that the Ukrainians are going for broke and are trying to capture the nuclear power station just west of Kursk......now that would be one large bargaining chip....
 
Another piece of information to chew on - the 'Head of the Lgov region' (west of Kursk Nuclear Power station by about 12km) is denying that there are ongoing clashes in his district.

If he's lying and there are clashing in his region, then the Ukkies are pretty darn close to the Nuc plant.

liveuamap.com

Head of Lgov district of Kursk region denies clashes in the district Lgov, Kursk - Ukraine Interactive map - Ukraine Latest news on live map - liveuamap.com

Head of Lgov district of Kursk region denies clashes in the district. Live Universal Awareness Map Liveuamap is a leading independent global news and information site dedicated to factual reporting of a variety of important topics including conflicts, human rights issues, protests, terrorism...
liveuamap.com liveuamap.com
 
I’ve seen nothing suggesting Ikraine is remotely close (in any relevant terms) to the Kursk NPP. Could I conceive of them trying to get there, safely shut it down, then destroy enough equipment to keep it safely offline for a long time? Sure, maybe? But that would involve fighting at/in an NPP- hugely dangerous, and potentially into war crimes territory (“works containing dangerous forces”). I don’t see it as something you risk an army corps over.

They have some sort of more straightforward strategic objective, it’s just not really apparent to me as of yet. Maybe it is just a strategic spoiler, and jamming some sticks in the spokes of Russian logistics, plus forcing Russia to lose some initiative and forces in repositioning?

Anyway, be interesting to see how this plays out.
 
brihard said:
I’ve seen nothing suggesting Ikraine is remotely close (in any relevant terms) to the Kursk NPP. Could I conceive of them trying to get there, safely shut it down, then destroy enough equipment to keep it safely offline for a long time? Sure, maybe? But that would involve fighting at/in an NPP- hugely dangerous, and potentially into war crimes territory (“works containing dangerous forces”). I don’t see it as something you risk an army corps over.

They have some sort of more straightforward strategic objective, it’s just not really apparent to me as of yet. Maybe it is just a strategic spoiler, and jamming some sticks in the spokes of Russian logistics, plus forcing Russia to lose some initiative and forces in repositioning?

Anyway, be interesting to see how this plays out.
Click to expand...
The juice might be worth the squeeze -

Kursk NPP has four RBMK-1000 reactors (1000 MW each) and is currently building two new VVER-TOI reactors. The 1st unit was launched in 1976, the 2nd in 1979, the 3rd in 1983 and the 4th in 1985. Kursk NPP is one of the three biggest NPPs in Russia and one of the four biggest electricity producers in the country (along with Balakovo and Leningrad NPPs and Sayano-Shushink WPP)

Kursk NPP is an important part of the United Energy System of Russia. Its key consumer is the Center energy system covering 19 regions of the Central Federal District. Kursk NPP produces 52% of the total output of all electric power plants of Chernozemye (Black Earth Belt). It feeds 90% of the industry of Kursk region.

Today Kursk NPP is the key energy supplier of Central Chernozemye, a region that produces 48% of iron ore, 13.5% of steel, 19% of ferrous metals, 9.6% of meat, 19.5% of sugar in Russia. The development of that region is largely credited to the Kursk NPP as it provides power, and a stable source of both employment and income for the communities around it.

This could be the Ukrainians summer offensive right here, right now.

Time will tell if it is or isn't, but if it is and they do attempt this and they do pull it off.....they just took the Russians thumb off the scale.
 
Czech_pivo said:
The juice might be worth the squeeze -

Kursk NPP has four RBMK-1000 reactors (1000 MW each) and is currently building two new VVER-TOI reactors. The 1st unit was launched in 1976, the 2nd in 1979, the 3rd in 1983 and the 4th in 1985. Kursk NPP is one of the three biggest NPPs in Russia and one of the four biggest electricity producers in the country (along with Balakovo and Leningrad NPPs and Sayano-Shushink WPP)

Kursk NPP is an important part of the United Energy System of Russia. Its key consumer is the Center energy system covering 19 regions of the Central Federal District. Kursk NPP produces 52% of the total output of all electric power plants of Chernozemye (Black Earth Belt). It feeds 90% of the industry of Kursk region.

Today Kursk NPP is the key energy supplier of Central Chernozemye, a region that produces 48% of iron ore, 13.5% of steel, 19% of ferrous metals, 9.6% of meat, 19.5% of sugar in Russia. The development of that region is largely credited to the Kursk NPP as it provides power, and a stable source of both employment and income for the communities around it.

This could be the Ukrainians summer offensive right here, right now.

Time will tell if it is or isn't, but if it is and they do attempt this and they do pull it off.....they just took the Russians thumb off the scale.
Click to expand...
I’m obviously not qualified to assess that, never mind rule it out, I just struggle to imagine it being a defensible and sustainable salient.

So far as I can tell the UAF have made it as far as Sudzha and Korenevo, but no idea in what kind of strength.
 
Czech_pivo said:
Another piece of information to chew on - the 'Head of the Lgov region' (west of Kursk Nuclear Power station by about 12km) is denying that there are ongoing clashes in his district.

If he's lying and there are clashing in his region, then the Ukkies are pretty darn close to the Nuc plant.

liveuamap.com

Head of Lgov district of Kursk region denies clashes in the district Lgov, Kursk - Ukraine Interactive map - Ukraine Latest news on live map - liveuamap.com

Head of Lgov district of Kursk region denies clashes in the district. Live Universal Awareness Map Liveuamap is a leading independent global news and information site dedicated to factual reporting of a variety of important topics including conflicts, human rights issues, protests, terrorism...
liveuamap.com liveuamap.com
Click to expand...
Two somewhat conflicting observations: If Russian officials dent something it is actually happening and whatever the Russian officialdom claims the enemy is doing or about to do is actually what they are planing. It is like a mirror.
 
brihard said:
I’m obviously not qualified to assess that, never mind rule it out, I just struggle to imagine it being a defensible and sustainable salient.

So far as I can tell the UAF have made it as far as Sudzha and Korenevo, but no idea in what kind of strength.
Click to expand...
Does it have to be a defensible or sustainable salient for longer than say 5-7 days?

Drive hard and fast to the NPP, seize the plant, wreak as much as possible without any radio active leaks and then get the hell out of there.
 
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