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The War in Ukraine

Unless Ukraine made some major movement northeast in the past day they’re still 50km shy. I still can’t see that happening.

I COULD see them smacking the shit out of all reachable electricity distribution sites around the plant, to cut it off from the grid, but that doesn’t require boots on the ground presence. I would also expect the plant and its environs to be heavily defended. In fact odds are the Russians are attacking forces up there out of fear, that would be much more useful at the FEBA.

Allowing Russia to think it’s an objective could be helpful though.

Would this be the reason for the invasion: To bring their most effective drones into range for an assault on Lipetsk? With the damage being done nightly by those glide bombs, staging a major incursion such as this would be worthwhile. I suppose this means another delivery will be coming from NK to replace stocks but that won't replace the airframes
Ukraine’s UAVs already have more than enough range for sites like that. It’s only 300km from the front lines. Ukraine has hit Moscow.

Well looks like it will be HIMARS O’clock again shortly

I mean… Pretty sure Ukraine knew about that one already. But I bet that reporter’s gonna have a bad day.
 
Yup. If we are abbreviating Ukraine it’s either UA or UKR depending on if we are going two or three letters ISO standards.

UK is the United Kingdom.
<anal pedantry> GB or GBR is United Kingdom </anal pedantry> :)
Could it be as simple as, "You want to talk, Vlad? How much of your bit of USSR 2.0 do you want back?" I'm thinking more political than tactical/operational objectives.

Also, couldn't help sharing this, from some UKR CP in the northeast of the country :)
KH-kursk-game-on.jpg
 
If they do go for the NPP and they are able to seize and wreck it - 100% certain they just wrote themselves into a Case Study that will be dissected for the next 50+yrs by all major war schools around the world.
If they do capture a NPP, the laws of war do not permit them to wreck. They then have to protect it. It would be a bit of millstone, actually.
 
If they do capture a NPP, the laws of war do not permit them to wreck. They then have to protect it. It would be a bit of millstone, actually.
On a purely tit-for-tat basis, though, it could be a handy "You want one of ours? Well, we have one of yours now."

Still, if that's what they're after, and if they get it, high risk - but big prize, too. 🍿
 
If they do go for the NPP and they are able to seize and wreck it - 100% certain they just wrote themselves into a Case Study that will be dissected for the next 50+yrs by all major war schools around the world.
I don’t think anyone would be supportive of wrecking it. NPP’s are a major taboo, when Russia seized Zaporrizhzhya NPP there was fighting around the site and damage to some of the reactors that could have been a major disaster beyond what occurred at Chernobyl.

Surrounding it and cutting it off from supply, perhaps, as I doubt the RuAF would be thrilled about attacking it. I would assume the goal would be to make a pitch for a withdrawal on both sides and swap NPP’s.

NPP’s are a National Level of Interest issue - only a few SOF entities in the world are skilled, budgeted and experienced to even practice conducting operations to seize and secure them by entry.

I would expect that if this is an objective Ukraine would simply surround it, and contain the perimeter. While their SOF it remarkably experienced with ground war — unless the UK and US Tier 1 entities have spent the last 18 months running UKR SOF through NPP seizure operations, (which I most strongly doubt would be the case) then I can’t see this being a feasible scenario.
 
A Norwegian environmental NGO has this take on the potential of Kurk's NPP at least possibly being in UKR's sights (with a bit of technical detail re: the Kursk NPP itself) - also archived here if the original link doesn't work
Their map of whazzup ...
assaultmap.png
... and a breakdown of considerations via their environmental lens
1723212913344.png
 
@brihard if the ISW is correct


View attachment 87134
Then the AFU are well inside 10km of the plant
I could maybe see SOF/reconnaissance doing some ground work that far up, especially if the battlespace is still really permeable, but I highly doubt Ukrainian has anything significant up that way or we’d be hearing more about it.

Some sort of feint towards Kursk NPP would potentially help fix early Russian reinforcements there and give Ukraine more time to capture and consolidate. There would be value to that. But I highly doubt the Ukrainians have enough on the ground to be pushing a major force that way so far in advance of what they already have. Their GLOC have to be tough to establish and maintain already, within fighting apparent along a couple of axes and limited road networks. Nearly everything there is rural village roads. They need to be careful not to extend too far and get a force pinched off.
 
Wreck the transmission lines to/from the plant? Is that permissible?
Absolutely.

There is no absolute rule against attacking an NPP or other installation “containing dangerous forces”. Extra care has to be taken, and it must be a valid military objective. That latter part wouldn’t be very hard to justify.

The customary international law of armed conflict pertaining to this is summarized here: https://ihl-databases.icrc.org/en/customary-ihl/v1/rule42

The question is whether it would be worth it. Both in terms of the scale of the endeavour to reach the plant, and the risks inherent in trying to take it over.

In a hypothetical case of a succesful raid on Kursk NPP, I don’t know how easily the two operating reactors (same type as Chernobyl) could be SCRAMed and shut down, allowing for wrecking of other plant facilities without endangering the reactors. That would be super super sketchy to fuck with and you would need a highly knowledgeable team to do it. I would be amazed if this were a true objective. But by all means make the Russians fear it is.
 
The War Zone summary via RealClearDefense.


In addition to expanding the Kursk lodgement there is mention of further activity in Lipentsk and Belgorod. Road and air movements are unimpeded (no mines, no prepared positions, no air defense). Helicopters operating freely. Ukrainians preparing logistics centres and digging in.
Platoon fortified positions.

22 Brigade seems to be the spear point along with the SOF.

Other troops are securing the flanks and digging in behind them.

A little bit of Kharkiv 2022, a little bit of the Great Raid 2014 and a little bit of Prigozhin 2023. Are the Ukrainians "occupying" or are they just denying Russia the use of its backfield? Restricting movement and knocking out factories, warehouses, airfields and military bases?

Prigozhin demonstrated how easy it was to move in the backfield once it was breached.

...

Interesting to note that local authorities in Kursk are now actively recruiting Kamikaze Drone operators, offering bonuses for experienced operators from Zaporizhia. The consequence of Putin wishing the locals well and challenging them to use their initiative?

Putin may want to hold the south but what if the Greater Moscow Oblasts start offering bonuses to forces to return to base with their Drones and Air Defence systems?
 
Maybe they could convince the Russians to attack their own unoccupied plant while actually never going near it.
 
UAV video purporting to be and consistent with the convoy hit. Looks like the convoy was stopped and hit then with at least four shots. That may mean fewer troops mounted up, but perhaps not. Quite a few trucks from the front took off.


If they only had A-10s.... and local air superiority

post today GIF
 
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