The War in Ukraine

[Eaglelord17]

2.5yrs into this war and the Ukrainians still haven't been able to find the magic key to unlock the 'mass surrender' lock that lies buried in all Russians. The Germans were able to find it in WW1 and WW2 (first half), the Ukrainians need to somehow find it and use it.

Both those wars at those points the Russians were being decimated. Literally anyone would surrender in those situations (France did on the Western Front).

WWI they were out maneuvered and out equipped. Literally reinforcements were arriving just in time to replace the casualties. On the worst fronts 1/10 troops were equipped with a rifle (worse than even the worst part of WWII).

WWII again out maneuvered and equipped early on. Maneuver warfare and Blitzkrieg works, as long as you can keep it going. Ukraine hasn't been able to do either of those things (excluding this recent Kursk adventure).

To get the Russians to surrender it is the same as getting anyone to surrender, either enough confusion or panic that they feel they can’t fight or make it so they can’t fight.

 

[MilEME09]

To get the Russians to surrender it is the same as getting anyone to surrender, either enough confusion or panic that they feel they can’t fight or make it so they can’t fight.

Another 100+ captured in the last day alone

https://twitter.com/x/status/1823991169694441856

 

[Rifleman62]

Waiting for Russia to purposely strike their POW's in some way and blame the Ukrainians for murdering their soldiers.
The head shed at all levels seem to not give a shit about the lives of their soldiers.

 

[SeaKingTacco]

Both those wars at those points the Russians were being decimated. Literally anyone would surrender in those situations (France did on the Western Front).

WWI they were out maneuvered and out equipped. Literally reinforcements were arriving just in time to replace the casualties. On the worst fronts 1/10 troops were equipped with a rifle (worse than even the worst part of WWII).

WWII again out maneuvered and equipped early on. Maneuver warfare and Blitzkrieg works, as long as you can keep it going. Ukraine hasn't been able to do either of those things (excluding this recent Kursk adventure).

To get the Russians to surrender it is the same as getting anyone to surrender, either enough confusion or panic that they feel they can’t fight or make it so they can’t fight.

That Russia/Rifle thing from WW2 seems to be a bit of a myth. It certainly happened on at least a couple of occasions, but was not a widespread practice.

 

[rmc_wannabe]

Waiting for Russia to purposely strike their POW's in some way and blame the Ukrainians for murdering their soldiers.
The head shed at all levels seem to not give a shit about the lives of their soldiers.

The past 2.5 years have been a solid indication of how much the Russians value their troops.

 

[dimsum]

2.5yrs into this war and the Ukrainians still haven't been able to find the magic key to unlock the 'mass surrender' lock that lies buried in all Russians. The Germans were able to find it in WW1 and WW2 (first half), the Ukrainians need to somehow find it and use it.

I’m not sure (and I don’t know how we can know at this point) how much this is permeating into the broader Russian citizenry, or even outside the units involved. If unit A surrenders but units B, C, D, etc don’t know, then they may not. But, if they know, then the chances of them surrendering get higher. I suspect that the Russian media isn’t covering any surrenders anyway, so I doubt that the people in various other parts of Russia even know. They’re being fed propaganda, other than what they can get from private sources, so I’m not surprised if they’re essentially in the dark about this latest development.

But, if they’re indoctrinated that surrender is worse than death, then like many (not all) of the Japanese in WWII, they may think that death is preferable (for different reasons than the Japanese back then).

 

[Skysix]

Another 100+ captured in the last day alone

https://twitter.com/x/status/1823991169694441856

The 2nd best army in Russia is - the Russian army.

 

[MilEME09]

History has typically shown that when you have company + elements surrendering. It doesn't slow down, and can collapse armies.

 

[KJK]

History has typically shown that when you have company + elements surrendering. It doesn't slow down, and can collapse armies.

Let's hope it continues.

 

[The Bread Guy]

... if they’re indoctrinated that surrender is worse than death, then like many (not all) of the Japanese in WWII, they may think that death is preferable (for different reasons than the Japanese back then).

USSR 2.0 narrative re: baby-killing Ukrainian Nazis enters the chat ...

 

[Rifleman62]

I suspect that the Russian media isn’t covering any surrenders anyway, so I doubt that the people in various other parts of Russia even know. They’re being fed propaganda, other than what they can get from private sources, so I’m not surprised if they’re essentially in the dark about this latest development.

True, but the Ukrainians allow the International Red Cross to visit the POW holding camps and allow mail and phone (monitored) calls to a limited extent.

 

[suffolkowner]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1824106959521427940

What would be the point of JASSM if the Ukrainians are not allowed to strike in Russia? Or is that policy going to change now and why?

 

[rmc_wannabe]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1824106959521427940

What would be the point of JASSM if the Ukrainians are not allowed to strike in Russia? Or is that policy going to change now and why?

Depends what your definition of Ukraine and Russia is.

Donbass, Luthansk, Kherson, and Crimea are all Ukraine.

Now, apparently, so is Kursk.

 

[dimsum]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1824106959521427940

What would be the point of JASSM if the Ukrainians are not allowed to strike in Russia? Or is that policy going to change now and why?

Yeeting them out of Polish airspace

 

[MilEME09]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1824079749779730643

 

[KevinB]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1824106959521427940

What would be the point of JASSM if the Ukrainians are not allowed to strike in Russia? Or is that policy going to change now and why?

The Policy is ever changing.

Right now from my understanding no country that is/has provided weapons to Ukraine is limiting targets due to locations in Russia.

Germany was one of the last public hold outs, but has removed that requirement, but also has not provided long range missiles.

Down here, publicly we are saying that Ukraine is free to use provided weapons as they see the requirement. But Zelensky did call POTUS prior to ATACMS usage last week.

I believe since Kursk didn’t result in anyone getting nuked that the escalation concern about provided weapons being used in Russia has significantly decreased.

So basically Anthony Blinken is winning over Snake Sullivan at the moment.

 

[The Bread Guy]

Interesting analysis re: how to squeeze USSR 2.0 harder ....

Institute for the Study of War

Russia has vulnerabilities that the West has simply not been exploiting. On the contrary, US incrementalism has helped the Kremlin offset and mask its weaknesses. The Kremlin’s weaknesses include its inability to rapidly pivot, dependence on others for R

www.understandingwar.org

Juiciest bits here

The writer doesn't appear to be concerned about the potential of "backing a wild animal into a corner" lash out. Mind you, given her background ...

Institute for the Study of War

Nataliya Bugayova is a non-resident Russia Fellow at the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) focusing on the Kremlin’s foreign policy decision-making, information operations, and global campaigns from Ukraine to Africa. Nataliya previously led ISW’s Rus

www.understandingwar.org

... she might be at least unlikely to want to give Putin anything approaching a clear, easy doorway out the back, so to speak.

 

[The Bread Guy]

(...)

In other news, remember this caper?

2022 Nord Stream pipeline sabotage - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

Germany's issued an arrest warrant for a Ukrainian-national diver

Nord Stream sabotage: Germany issues arrest warrant – DW – 08/14/2024

A Ukrainian national, whose last known address was in Poland, is being sought by German authorities for the 2022 attacks on the Nord Stream gas pipelines. He is believed to have acted with two accomplices.

www.dw.com

Germany seeks arrest for Nord Stream blasts, reports claim

Prosecutors have declined to comment on the investigation, which concerns explosions that damaged the pipelines built to bring Russian gas to Germany. #EuropeNews

www.euronews.com

Germany issues arrest warrant for Ukrainian suspect over Nord Stream sabotage

In the two years since mysterious explosions hit the Nord Stream gas pipelines, both Ukraine and Russia have denied any involvement in the attacks. German authorities on Wednesday issued an arrest warrant…

www.france24.com

Latest on this one: <gasp> UKR military was behind it </gasp> (with alcohol allegedly involved) .....

Wall Street Journal link here, archived link here in case previous one doesn't work.

MSM versions here

Small Ukrainian Team Blew Up Nord Stream Pipeline, New Report Claims | WRKO-AM 680

The plot was hatched by a small group of Ukrainian military officials during a night of heavy drinking.

wrko.iheart.com

Nord Stream Sabotage Backed By Senior Ukraine Officials: Report

The sabotage of the Nord Stream gas pipelines in 2022 was approved by senior officials in Kyiv, a report said Thursday, with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky initially giving his support.

www.barrons.com

Ukraine rejects as 'nonsense' alleged role in Nord Stream blasts

Ukraine on Thursday rejected as "absolute nonsense" suggestions it was involved in the 2022 sabotage of the Nord Stream pipelines, which transported Russian gas to Europe via the Baltic Sea.

www.france24.com

 

[Czech_pivo]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1824079749779730643

I was waiting for the comments, 'things have changed alot since my Opa went through here' - 'the Ukrainians have dusted off our old plans and added some new twists' - 'I remember sitting my Opa's knee listening to him talk about the endless rows of wheat and the beautiful tank country around Kursk'.

 

[KevinB]

Latest on this one: <gasp> UKR military was behind it </gasp> (with alcohol allegedly involved) .....
View attachment 87287
Wall Street Journal link here, archived link here in case previous one doesn't work.

MSM versions here

Small Ukrainian Team Blew Up Nord Stream Pipeline, New Report Claims | WRKO-AM 680

The plot was hatched by a small group of Ukrainian military officials during a night of heavy drinking.

wrko.iheart.com

Nord Stream Sabotage Backed By Senior Ukraine Officials: Report

The sabotage of the Nord Stream gas pipelines in 2022 was approved by senior officials in Kyiv, a report said Thursday, with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky initially giving his support.

www.barrons.com

Ukraine rejects as 'nonsense' alleged role in Nord Stream blasts

Ukraine on Thursday rejected as "absolute nonsense" suggestions it was involved in the 2022 sabotage of the Nord Stream pipelines, which transported Russian gas to Europe via the Baltic Sea.

www.france24.com

Well I certain can’t blame Ukraine. Heck in the old thread before it got wiped I’d posted what I would have done / and while I would have used a slightly larger boat it wasn’t much different than what is alleged to have been done. It wasn’t a difficult dive with equipment - albeit I’d have used a hard suit and severed it in a few other places as well.