I’m sure he’ll come up with something…
Trudeau Popularity - or not (various polling, etc.)
- Thread starter daftandbarmy
- Start date
It isn’t. At all lol. Trend isn’t good.
- Reaction score
- 22,301
- Points
- 1,360
Clearly he’ll need to have another caucus meeting, but fair’s fair, can’t be
There is always the lavish Sudbury hotel they used for one.
OldSolduer
Army.ca Relic
- Reaction score
- 15,754
- Points
- 1,260
In Winnipeg we give the LPC the FINEST hotel in Winnipeg
Its somewhere on Main Street. BUT the locals can be entertaining....and dangerous
- Reaction score
- 19,082
- Points
- 1,280
I thought the MB riding in play is an NDP one?
Halifax Tar
Army.ca Fixture
- Reaction score
- 11,477
- Points
- 1,260
Beautiful. Keep going Canada.
en.wikipedia.org
9.94% Drop in support for the LPC
15.87% Rise for Cons
en.wikipedia.org
15.73% Drop in support for the LPC
I think the poll 338.ca put out recently showing the BQ as Official opposition and the LPC relegated to fourth party might be a hint at what's to come.
2024 Elmwood—Transcona federal by-election - Wikipedia
9.94% Drop in support for the LPC
15.87% Rise for Cons
2024 LaSalle—Émard—Verdun federal by-election - Wikipedia
15.73% Drop in support for the LPC
I think the poll 338.ca put out recently showing the BQ as Official opposition and the LPC relegated to fourth party might be a hint at what's to come.
- Reaction score
- 22,301
- Points
- 1,360
Just a big kick, not nuclear kick to the LPC’s groin, primarily because the LPC dropped from 1/3 the NDPs vote to 1/10 the NDP’s vote, so a relative 70%+ drop in seats. As Halifax Tar noted below, this drop almost entirely gave the CPC its bump up from 56% of the NDP in 2021 to just over 92% of the NDP’s total last night.
If I were to characterize LaSalle-Émard-Verdun as a kick, it would be more like:
…LPC losing a seat held for…ever? Or at least while horseless carriages have come into use? Paul Martin Jr. held the seat safely for 20 years. Even Lameti wins the seat with 43% of the vote.
looks like Canada’s next Opposition just picked up another seat on its recce of the October 2025 electoral battleground.
OldSolduer
Army.ca Relic
- Reaction score
- 15,754
- Points
- 1,260
It is - its been that way since...forever. Bill Blaikie held that seat for a very long time. His son held it but he resigned to work for Wab Kinew the Premier.
There is a strong socialist sentiment in Winnipeg.
- Reaction score
- 22,301
- Points
- 1,360
More grist for the Lessons Ignored mill of the Big Red Machine, aka. how the ‘front fell off’ the Liberals’ attempt to keep LaSalle-Émard-Verdun.
Start with ‘Know Your riding!’ (Ie. Pick the right candidate)
nationalpost.com
Start with ‘Know Your riding!’ (Ie. Pick the right candidate)
Terry Newman: There are no more safe spaces for Trudeau’s Liberals — Montreal byelection loss proves it
Never assume you have Quebec, or any other riding
nationalpost.com
The liberal party, at the moment, is pure poison everywhere including Quebec. I wonder if the Bloc really wants to be seen climbing into bed with them, even on a vote by vote basis.
- Reaction score
- 17,221
- Points
- 1,010
If they do, it is because they have gotten the Liberals to agree to something so obviously self-serving to the Bloc’s interests, that it cannot possibly be misunderstood for anything other than a bribed vote…
- Reaction score
- 6,012
- Points
- 1,260
John Ibbitson, who is one of Canada's preeminent political pundits, chimes in in today's Globe and Mail:
PUBLISHED 4 HOURS AGO
For Liberal Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, the results of Monday’s by-elections are simply a disaster. A once-safe seat in Montreal has been lost, complementing the loss of an equally safe seat in Toronto three months prior. The Liberals face a shellacking in the next election.
NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh and Bloc-Québécois Leader Yves-François Blanchet now have conclusive evidence that the governing party is mortally weak, that the sooner they combine with the Conservatives to bring it down, the sooner they could reap the political benefits.
These are not simply by-election results. The political terrain at the federal level is undergoing a tectonic shift. We could be in an election campaign within weeks.
In normal times the Montreal riding of LaSalle-Émard-Verdun is among the most secure of Liberal seats. Former Liberal prime minister Paul Martin represented Lasalle-Émard from 1988 until he retired from politics in 2008. Former justice minister David Lametti won the reconfigured riding comfortably in 2015 and 2019. In 2021, he had a cushion of 10,000 votes.
But after he was shuffled out of cabinet, Mr. Lametti resigned the seat, forcing an eventual by-election. And then in June, the Liberals lost one of the safest Liberal seats in the land: Toronto-St. Paul’s. Suddenly all eyes were on LaSalle-Émard-Verdun. Both the Bloc-Québécois and the NDP felt they had a shot.
It didn’t help the Liberal cause that more than 50 ministerial staffers refused to campaign for the party in the riding because they believed the government is too supportive of Israel in its war with Hamas. NDP candidate Craig Sauvé produced a pamphlet prominently featuring the Palestinian flag.
Bloc canvassers reported a genuine enthusiasm at the door for the party’s sovereigntist message. The Parti Québécois is in first place, provincially.
The Liberals knew going into the by-election that a poor result in LaSalle-Émard-Verdun would be an even bigger shock for the party than the loss in Toronto-St. Paul’s. Mr. Trudeau is, after all, a Montreal MP.
On Monday night, the Liberals found themselves in an astonishingly tight three-way race with both the Bloc and the NDP. None of the three parties commanded even 29 per cent of the vote. Though there may be a recount, the Bloc-Québécois appears to have taken the riding away from the Liberals by the narrowest of margins.
LaSalle-Émard-Verdun lost! On top of Toronto-St. Paul’s! There is not a safe Liberal seat in the land. No not one.
For Mr. Singh, the night was encouraging. Though the NDP came third in the Montreal riding, they were only a few hundred votes behind the winner. Mr. Sauvé told his supporters Monday night that the NDP is now competitive in Montreal. Certainly they are more competitive than at any time since Mr. Singh became leader.
Even better, the NDP held Winnipeg’s Elmwood-Transcona, despite a strong challenge from the Conservatives.
The riding had been owned by either Bill Blaikie or his son Daniel, almost without exception, for decades. The Conservatives under Pierre Poilievre have been working hard to win working-class votes away from the NDP. A win in Elmwood-Transcona would have offered proof those efforts were paying off.
But though the Conservatives came close, it wasn’t close enough. They will find consolation in the fact that their vote share was up in both by-elections. But losing Elmwood-Transcona was the first bad news Mr. Poilievre has received in some time.
Mr. Singh’s message to non-sovereigntist progressive voters has been clear: the Liberal Party is a spent force. Only the NDP can properly challenge the Conservatives. The results in Montreal and Winnipeg reinforce that message.
They also suggests to both the NDP and the Bloc that the sooner the country goes into a general election, the better things will be for them and the worse things will be for the Liberals.
Mr. Trudeau has vowed to stay on, regardless of the by-elections results. But the situation is dire. Not only is the result in LaSalle-Émard-Verdun the worst possible news, in Elmwood-Transcona they took five per cent of the vote, 10 points below their 2021 result. Five per cent of the vote for a governing party?
Many of the candidates in these two by-elections will be fighting a rematch in the next general election. Given these results, that could be soon.
OK, OK. Mr Ibbitson is being a bit hyperbolic ... there are a few truly safe Liberal seats out there. Even the political hapless Michael Ignatieff couldn't lose all the Liberal seats - he hung on to 34 which may be party's rock bottom base and. I would not be surprised if Prime Minister Trudeau repeats that feat in 2024/25.
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With the Liberals losing once-safe seats, an election can’t be far off
JOHN IBBITSONPUBLISHED 4 HOURS AGO
For Liberal Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, the results of Monday’s by-elections are simply a disaster. A once-safe seat in Montreal has been lost, complementing the loss of an equally safe seat in Toronto three months prior. The Liberals face a shellacking in the next election.
NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh and Bloc-Québécois Leader Yves-François Blanchet now have conclusive evidence that the governing party is mortally weak, that the sooner they combine with the Conservatives to bring it down, the sooner they could reap the political benefits.
These are not simply by-election results. The political terrain at the federal level is undergoing a tectonic shift. We could be in an election campaign within weeks.
In normal times the Montreal riding of LaSalle-Émard-Verdun is among the most secure of Liberal seats. Former Liberal prime minister Paul Martin represented Lasalle-Émard from 1988 until he retired from politics in 2008. Former justice minister David Lametti won the reconfigured riding comfortably in 2015 and 2019. In 2021, he had a cushion of 10,000 votes.
But after he was shuffled out of cabinet, Mr. Lametti resigned the seat, forcing an eventual by-election. And then in June, the Liberals lost one of the safest Liberal seats in the land: Toronto-St. Paul’s. Suddenly all eyes were on LaSalle-Émard-Verdun. Both the Bloc-Québécois and the NDP felt they had a shot.
It didn’t help the Liberal cause that more than 50 ministerial staffers refused to campaign for the party in the riding because they believed the government is too supportive of Israel in its war with Hamas. NDP candidate Craig Sauvé produced a pamphlet prominently featuring the Palestinian flag.
Bloc canvassers reported a genuine enthusiasm at the door for the party’s sovereigntist message. The Parti Québécois is in first place, provincially.
The Liberals knew going into the by-election that a poor result in LaSalle-Émard-Verdun would be an even bigger shock for the party than the loss in Toronto-St. Paul’s. Mr. Trudeau is, after all, a Montreal MP.
On Monday night, the Liberals found themselves in an astonishingly tight three-way race with both the Bloc and the NDP. None of the three parties commanded even 29 per cent of the vote. Though there may be a recount, the Bloc-Québécois appears to have taken the riding away from the Liberals by the narrowest of margins.
LaSalle-Émard-Verdun lost! On top of Toronto-St. Paul’s! There is not a safe Liberal seat in the land. No not one.
For Mr. Singh, the night was encouraging. Though the NDP came third in the Montreal riding, they were only a few hundred votes behind the winner. Mr. Sauvé told his supporters Monday night that the NDP is now competitive in Montreal. Certainly they are more competitive than at any time since Mr. Singh became leader.
Even better, the NDP held Winnipeg’s Elmwood-Transcona, despite a strong challenge from the Conservatives.
The riding had been owned by either Bill Blaikie or his son Daniel, almost without exception, for decades. The Conservatives under Pierre Poilievre have been working hard to win working-class votes away from the NDP. A win in Elmwood-Transcona would have offered proof those efforts were paying off.
But though the Conservatives came close, it wasn’t close enough. They will find consolation in the fact that their vote share was up in both by-elections. But losing Elmwood-Transcona was the first bad news Mr. Poilievre has received in some time.
Mr. Singh’s message to non-sovereigntist progressive voters has been clear: the Liberal Party is a spent force. Only the NDP can properly challenge the Conservatives. The results in Montreal and Winnipeg reinforce that message.
They also suggests to both the NDP and the Bloc that the sooner the country goes into a general election, the better things will be for them and the worse things will be for the Liberals.
Mr. Trudeau has vowed to stay on, regardless of the by-elections results. But the situation is dire. Not only is the result in LaSalle-Émard-Verdun the worst possible news, in Elmwood-Transcona they took five per cent of the vote, 10 points below their 2021 result. Five per cent of the vote for a governing party?
Many of the candidates in these two by-elections will be fighting a rematch in the next general election. Given these results, that could be soon.
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OK, OK. Mr Ibbitson is being a bit hyperbolic ... there are a few truly safe Liberal seats out there. Even the political hapless Michael Ignatieff couldn't lose all the Liberal seats - he hung on to 34 which may be party's rock bottom base and. I would not be surprised if Prime Minister Trudeau repeats that feat in 2024/25.
- Reaction score
- 88
- Points
- 330
Ottawa-Vanier is one of the truly safe seats. The Liberals could run a retarded hamster in (sadly) my riding and see it win by a healthy margin. It's been Liberal since it was created in 1935.
Surprising how wildly mixed the riding is. Everything from the Sandy Hill embassy/student area, the crack dens of centertown, the Market, old Vanier and Overbrook, Rockcliffe, UOttawa, and Beacon Hill. Weird that it’s such a politically stable riding.
- Reaction score
- 1,743
- Points
- 1,090
Frankly I think Mr Ibbitson is wrong about an imminent election, but not for anything he said in this piece. The reality is that only the Conservatives are ready for a fall election. Neither the NDP nor the Bloc are going to side with the Conservatives to scuttle the government any time soon.
Maxman1
Army.ca Veteran
- Reaction score
- 1,569
- Points
- 1,160
Is Ottawa South just as safe? The MP is Dalton McGuinty's brother, so it can't be that up for grabs.
- Reaction score
- 6,155
- Points
- 1,160
A quick perusal of 338 shows the CPC still comfortably in majority territory.
As long as that holds and they can out vote the whole of the other parties, I'm not concerned who gets the opposition.
It would be interesting to see what kind of stance the Bloc would take if they became the Loyal Opposition, so long as they couldn't force the government into action. How much would a regional, possibly separatist, party stand up for the rest of the country. Especially if the decision affected their province.
As long as that holds and they can out vote the whole of the other parties, I'm not concerned who gets the opposition.
It would be interesting to see what kind of stance the Bloc would take if they became the Loyal Opposition, so long as they couldn't force the government into action. How much would a regional, possibly separatist, party stand up for the rest of the country. Especially if the decision affected their province.
- Reaction score
- 2,499
- Points
- 1,190
No, but if the Liberals have any honour within him (lol), then considering both the polling and these two by-elections, it's clear that the government has lost the confidence of the house, and they should dissolve parliament.
