• Thanks for stopping by. Logging in to a registered account will remove all generic ads. Please reach out with any questions or concerns.

Politics in 2014

Status
Not open for further replies.
Like it or not, yesterday's tragic events WILL be fodder for highly partisan politics ... see, e.g. this article in the Globe and Mail.

Yesterday, while monitoring Twitter, within minutes, not hours of the event, I saw two tweets than turned my stomach:

    1. The first was from a well known retired journalist, an occasional "talking head" on TV, and a fierce Conservative partisan. He used the occasion to attack Justin Trudeau and hoped the event
        would come back to bite him in the a**; and

    2. The second was from someone who used a screen name and avatar that suggests a First Nation heritage: (s)he said it was just too bad that Stephen Harper wasn't killed, too.  :facepalm:

I suspect that both the Conservatives and the NDP will try to exploit this to wedge M. Trudeau ~ "he's not 'supporting the troops'," the Tories will say; "he's not 'peaceful' enough," the NDP will say, trying, once again, to drag the left wing of the Liberal Party of Canada away from its leader.

 
that's the nature of the beast. We're a long way off from anything resembling 'clean' politics.
Parties tote other party's shortcomings, flaws and errors and it's no different for high visibility people (reporters).
It is sad that someone would say too bad Harper wasn't killed, but rational thought cannot be expected from everyone. I hated Pauline Marois with every cell in my body, and many other politicians of that particular tumor, but i never wished them to die.
 
Here, reproduced under the Fair Dealing provisions of the Copyright Act from the National Post, is an intersting bit of speculation about the likely legislative fallout from this week's events:

http://news.nationalpost.com/2014/10/24/conservatives-new-anti-terror-laws-likely-to-mirror-immensely-controversial-u-k-legislation/
national_post_logo.png

Conservatives’ new anti-terror laws likely to mirror ‘immensely controversial’ U.K. legislation

John Ivison | October 24, 2014

The Harper government’s new anti-terror legislation is likely to mirror laws introduced in the United Kingdom after the 2005 London bombings – and they are set to be just as controversial.

As the National Post reported Friday, the new legislation is likely to include provisions that make it an offence to condone or glorify terror acts. There will also be moves to lower the evidentiary threshold necessary to detain suspected terrorists.

This is in line with the 2005 British legislation that criminalized indirect incitement to commit terror acts. The law made it an offence to encourage terrorism – specifically, it prohibited publication of “a statement that is likely to be understood by all the members of the public to whom it is published as a direct or indirect encouragement or other inducement to them to the commission, preparation or instigation of terrorism.”

Kent Roach, a professor of law at the University of Toronto faculty of law, said the law was “immensely controversial and has been used relatively infrequently.”

Wesley Wark, a visiting professor at the University of Ottawa, said the legislation was likely designed to be symbolic and a deterrent, rather than “a useable legal tool”.

In one case that was brought to trial, a British Muslim woman was convicted of “possessing records likely to be useful in terrorism,” after posting poems on the Internet supporting Osama Bin Laden. The conviction was later overturned by a court of appeal.

That provision was controversial enough – it was criticized for being vague and potentially stifling debate. But the British legislation went further, particularly in relation to the detention of terror suspects for questioning.

The Tony Blair Labour government tried to amend existing terror legislation that allowed for the detention of suspects without charge for up to 14 days. The government called for extrajudicial detention for up to 90 days but the amendment was defeated, in favour of a doubling to 28 days.

Some legislators, including former Conservative leader Michael Howard, pointed out that no terrorist released after 14 days had ever been incriminated by new evidence – suggesting the police had no practical need for more than 14 days. Opponents pointed to the failure of internment in Northern Ireland, which proved a helpful recruiting sergeant for the IRA.

It’s unlikely the Conservatives will seek such Draconian recourse.

But Stephen Harper told the House of Commons Thursday that the government plans to strengthen policing powers over surveillance, arrest and detention.

Steven Blaney, the Public Safety Minister, has said the government plans to lower the threshold necessary to mount a case against suspected terrorists.

Under the current Combating Terrorism legislation, law enforcement agencies can detain suspects on grounds of reasonable suspicion for 48 hours. It is defined as an emergency power and after that time period, police have to submit their case to a federal court judge to say whether there are sufficient grounds for arrest. Conservative sources say their plan is to lower the evidentiary threshold. “The case needs to be robust but not 100% robust,” said one source.

Wayne Easter, the Liberal public safety critic, says the government should be making better use of its existing tools to fight terrorism under the Criminal Code and anti-terror legislation.

“I really don’t understand why [Martin Couture-Rouleau] couldn’t have been held under preventive detention. The government has some explaining to do on why they haven’t tested some of these things in the courts. What are the limits of preventive detention? Most of them have not been tested,” he said.

He was also damning of the decision to remove Rouleau’s passport and then let him go free. “It boggles my mind. What the hell good does it do taking someone’s passport away if you’re worried about them being a potential terrorist. In my view, it increases the risk at home. It makes no sense at all,” he said.

Randall Garrison, the NDP’s public safety critic, said he would have to see specifically what the government is proposing before taking a position. “But we have always said we don’t believe there is necessarily a contradiction between security and civil liberties – it’s not necessarily a trade-off,” he said.

After the London bombings, Charles Clarke, the then home secretary, wrote to the opposition Conservatives and Liberal Democrats to ask for their views, in an attempt to strike a consensus.

Mr. Garrison said there have been no such consultations with the Harper government on this issue, even after the NDP asked for a briefing for Tom Mulcair from the Prime Minister in the wake of Monday’s attack in St. Jean-sur-Richilieu.

Mr. Easter was similarly scathing. “They don’t consult you on anything,” he said.

So much for the new era of togetherness.


My conflicting conservative and liberal instincts tell me that:

    1. This is, probably, the very worst time to debate new anti-terrorism laws, but I understand the political imperative to do it; and

    2. Our national security apparatus is constrained by laws that, in some cases, owe more to Henry Stimson's ethical reservations about SIGINT,* than by the requirements of 21st century counter-terrorism.

_____
* "Gentlemen do not read each other's mail," Stimson famously said when, in 1929, he closed the US "Black Chamber," it's embryonic cryptanalysis facility.
 
Lawrence Martin, no fan of Prime Minister Harper (to put mildly), looks at the potential political impact of last week's sad events in this column which is reproduced under the Fair Dealing provisions of the Copyright Act from the Globe and Mail:

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-debate/patriotic-fervour-fate-boost-harpers-hand/article21329044/#dashboard/alerts
gam-masthead.png

Patriotic fervour, terror trauma boost Harper’s hand

LAWRENCE MARTIN
Special to The Globe and Mail

Published Tuesday, Oct. 28 2014

A political leader’s success or failure comes down to three main variables: what the politician does, what the politician’s opponents do, and what the gods do.

The lesson from last week is to never overlook the third variable. Sometimes, fate is the major player.

Many of us had settled on the notion that unless something shocking happened, Prime Minister Stephen Harper’s image, after so long in power, was set.

Something shocking? How about the trauma of terror at a nation’s core. We remember how prime minister Pierre Trudeau’s popularity soared during the October Crisis. We remember how U.S. president George W. Bush vaulted to 90 per cent after the attacks of Sept. 11, 2001. It’s the rally-around-the-flag effect.

There’s no certainty that the attack on Parliament Hill, while no 9/11, will engender a big popularity bounce for the Prime Minister. It may be short in duration, but patriotism is overflowing in this land right now. In times like these, people want a strongman. Security becomes a top-drawer issue. It all plays perfectly to the politics of Mr. Harper, who is being lauded for his handling of the crisis.

In contrast with the honouring of Corporal Nathan Cirillo, flags weren’t flown at half-mast for fallen soldiers returning from Afghanistan – Mr. Harper’s government imposed a media ban on repatriation ceremonies.

Political considerations are different now. The Prime Minister needed something to buttress his case for joining the air combat mission against Islamic State and for saying Canada was a terrorist target – then, in the space of two days, came the attacks in Quebec and Ottawa.

The fates aligned with the Prime Minister’s political needs – and hardly for the first time. Opposition members don’t like to talk about it because it sounds like sour grapes, but they shake their heads at how often timing has worked in his favour.

Mr. Harper’s sabre-rattling foreign policy extended to Russia, where he warned that Vladimir Putin was a grave threat. Something to back up his talk would make him look good, prescient even. On cue, Mr. Putin moved on the Ukraine.

After yet another Arctic tour this summer to stake out sovereignty in the North, some sign of tangible progress would have been helpful. On cue, the Franklin shipwreck was discovered, bolstering Canada’s claim to the Northwest Passage.

Early this year, the Quebec election began to look very worrisome, with a triumph by the separatists looking likely. They got clobbered. Also very troubling was the prospect of Mr. Harper’s former chief of staff, Nigel Wright, being charged in connection with the Senate scandal. No charges came.

Opponents preparing for the next election might pause to wonder how the fates have performed for Mr. Harper during previous campaigns.

In 2006, he was trailing when out of the blue came the news that the RCMP had launched a criminal investigation of the Liberals on income trusts. It turned the tide.

In the 2008 election, as he was losing momentum in the closing days, Liberal leader Stéphane Dion made his infamous language stumble to begin an interview. Momentum shifted. And Tories will tell you what a boost they got, given their law-and-order agenda, from the stunning news that Osama bin Laden had been killed in the last hours of the 2011 campaign.

The PM’s tactical skills can be daunting. As can be the hands of fate.

Remember the 2008 coalition crisis, when even Mr. Harper himself thought he was finished? The Liberals revived him by rolling out separatist Gilles Duceppe as a member of their coalition team. The Governor-General could have brought Mr. Harper down anyway, but granted his wish for prorogation. The opposition parties then forced his hand in bringing in a big economic stimulus program, for which Mr. Harper subsequently got much credit.

Timing? When a major national protest against his second prorogation of Parliament was set to take place, the horrific Haiti earthquake moved it to the back pages. Timing? When Mr. Harper was stumbling in his early days as opposition leader, lo and behold came the Liberal sponsorship scandal to revive him.

There’s a phrase in Latin, deus ex machina. In our politics, its relevance is not to be underestimated.

Deua ex machina which one dictionary defines as "a character or thing that suddenly enters the story in a novel, play, movie, etc., and solves a problem that had previously seemed impossible to solve" could well be in play, and earlier than we think. The "play" is the next general election, currently scheduled for October 2015 but about which there has been some speculation re: moving it 'fast forward' to late autumn 2014.

Why?

The Prime Minister could argue, I think, that two things have happened:

    1. The legislative agenda on which he campaigned in 2011 is, by and large, accomplished; and

    2. The world is changing.

He can, I believe, go to the GG and to the country on one big 'plank' of a platform ~ The global strategic situation has changed and Canadians need to decide between two competing visions:

    1. On the foreign and defence policy front we have two views -

        a. Messers Mulcair and Trudeau agree that we should send foreign aid and welcome Muslim refugees to our shores, but

        b. Prime Minister Harper proposes that we take the fight to the enemy, in his lair, in the Middle East; and

    2. On the global economic front we also have two views, given that Canada's budgetary deficit will soon be history -

        a. Messers Mulcair and Trudeau want to raise taxes, both corporate and personal taxes in M. Trudeau's case, but

        b. Prime Minister Harper wants to give you, and Canadian businesses, tax breaks to promote growth in our economy and more, better jobs for Canadians.

It's plausible ... the writs could be dropped next week, a five week campaign would end with an election in early December.


 
Well, if we start seeing attack adds next week by the conservatives, I'll bet on your hypothesis.
 
Thucydides said:
Two interesting data points:

1. Although leftists were practicqally salivating over the idea Olivia Chow would become Queen of Toronto, she came in third in the election; and,

2, John Tory and Doug Ford were both cast as "Conservatives", but came in 1-2 and had vote totals that were both individually and collectively higher than Olivia Chow's. (I use quotes around Conservative since neither one is fully consistent with conservatism as a political philosophy).

While this does not mean that Toronto is suddenly jumping into the Conservative camp, it may mean Toronto is not the Liberal/Left/NDP bastion that many people seem to think it could be in 2015 for the Federal election, and more seats than we imagine might be up for grabs.

I also think the Fords should not be written off so quickly, look at the vote count again (Rob won his riding and Douog came in a respectable second). There are a lot of supporters out there and they can become a force for good or ill (depending on if they want to help or hinder Toronto's new political order).


My point is that Toronto is not a monolith.

Here (Wikipedia) is a very useful guide to the next election. Scroll down to 6.5, 6.6 and 6.7 ~ that's all Greater Toronto. While it's true that most, but not all, of Central Toronto (8 of 11 sears) is pretty safe for the Liberals and NDP the more numerous suburban seats are heavily Conservative (15 of 27 seats); and that's where the growth is: there is one new seat in Central Toronto and vice six the Toronto suburbs.
 
to1128_electionresults_1500_c1.jpg


I think this substantiates your position ERC.

The map generated by the National Post from the mayoral elections.

Green is Olivia
Red is "The Fords Inc"
Blue is John Tory.

Mulcair will secure Olivia's ridings.
The Fords Inc will not be voting Liberal any time soon - default to Harper.
The John Tory support will lean Liberal close to the water (even if they have to support "The Young Dauphin") and towards Harper in the Hinterlands of Richmond.
 
Trust the CBC to put the worst possible spin on this. Tax cuts or income splitting do not "cost" the Government anything; its our money and the Government is reducing the pull on our wallets by $2.7 billion dollars.

The sidebar has another amusing look into the worldview of the "Laurentian elites" (of which the CBC is a large part):

■Federal government still mum on how to spend surplus

Note the automatic assumption that this money is theirs to spend. Now we know the CPC has promised to use some of the monies for tax and debt reduction, and some on other initiatives (probably a grab bag of small, targeted "vote getters" in various ridings. I would be very surprised to see the CBC or the people who post on the CBC website approve of debt reduction and small initiatives, but are dreaming of "big ticket" projects that government can pour money all over.
 
Thucydides: since tax "cuts" imply that the Govt has decided to take less of our money in a particular case, I suggest it does in fact mean that it "costs" the Govt something. Granted that the reduction in taxes might (in theory) be offset by improved consumer spending that will return money via, say, HST/GST (that the CPC didn't abolish, I see...), but there is no immediate guarantee of this. One could easily point to countries such as Norway, Sweden or Germany that have very high tax regimes compared to Canada, yet seem to operate productive economies and maintain high standards of living.

Concerning your comments about the CBC, I'm not aware that it's the duty of the CBC, or of any media outlet, to praise any Government. Rather, I would hope that the CBC, like the Sun or the National Post or the Belleville Intelligencer for that matter, see their role to be to badger, question, embarrass and expose the sitting Govt at every turn. The Sun chain will be happy to carry out this task if the Liberals ever get elected.

It seems to me that a free media and an independent judiciary (seemingly another target of some CPC folk) are two of the most important guardians of a true democracy, as opposed to, let's say,  a one-party state. Partisanship is the heritage of English-language journalism: there is nothing new about it. Suggestions that the carpings of the media are somehow "unpatriotic" reminds me immediately of that ancient but very true saying: "Patriotism-the last refuge of the scoundrel". You know, sort of like: "if you oppose this Bill you are against Canada" Sound familiar?

(Ironically, here in Kingston the "Whig Standard" is actually owned by the Sun chain, who are ideologically rather far from what today's "Whigs" are all about.)

Your characterization of the people who post comments on the CBC news site is not accurate at all, in my experience. Take a close look, and I'm pretty sure you will find as many right-wing mouth-breathers raving away as you will find left-wing tree huggers, tin foil hatters, Harper haters, etc.  I read the CBC news site at least twice a day, so I'm quite sure of what I'm talking about.
 
A couple of openings for discussion there.

Pamphleteering, gossip-mongering and scandal are indeed the origins of the free press in the English language tradition.  Government sponsored commentary is only as new as the BBC and radio - a creature of the corporatist-socialist-fascist-communist era.

An independent judiciary is also a hallmark of English jurisprudence and society.  But traditionally it has been a bastion of conservatism.  This was due in large part to the longevity of the tenure of the judges appointed for life as opposed to the vagaries of the mob selected politicians.  Judges have inevitably tended to oppose any change.

These days the conservative forces are those wishing to conserve the creatures of the corporatist-socialist-fascist-communist era in which they grew up. Anybody attempting to change that status quo, say someone trying to reform government along lines more traditionally described as liberal before that brand was co-opted, is inevitably going to be in for a rough-ride.

Whigs achieved longevity by appointing reforming judges who outlasted their forays into government. 

The pendulum continues to swing and will continue to swing.

As to taxing -

I wonder if the issue is less a matter of how much tax is collected as opposed to how much money is in circulation. And that, along with some thoughts I have had about Bretton Woods and America's 70 year Quantitative Easing plan as well as noting that Putin's ventures into Donbas are costing him more than it was worth (stay with me) all kind of came together in one question:

Was one of the intentions of the Bretton Woods formulary to take the emphasis away from that which is possessed to that which might be produced?

Gold, and the natural resources of a country reflect that which is past. They are a result of actions previously taken by previous holders of the property.  If the holder of the property is killed then that property and its assets are immediately transferred to the new "owner" and that person or nation benefits.  That property can then be used as collateral to support the borrowing of new money and the  wealth of the new owner rises still further.

If however the raising of funds, borrowing, is based not so much on what is possessed (assets), but instead on what might be produced (income and GNP) then the incentive to grow wealth by seizing the property of others is diminished. 

When Vlad went into the Donbas he wrecked that economy.  Really his best course of action now is to leave it as a millstone for Ukraine rather  than claiming for himself.  The roads are cratered, the factories bombed, the mines in poor condition, the youngsters and the miners have fled.  He is left with a solid cadre of pensioners looking for hand outs along with a surly bunch of non-co-operative individuals that are just to bloody-minded to accommodate any government plan.  I kind of think that is what any country can expect if it tries to seize another country.  The exercise will not add to the invaders wealth.  It will inevitably cost the invader to invade with no hope of recouping the investment. 

Or putting it more bluntly.  If all another person can offer you is his labour, and labour is the only recognized form of wealth, it doesn't serve you to kill him.

It might serve you to enslave him however.  But there you are best advised to keep the slave happy as a surly slave will perform poorly, require lots of unproductive supervision and spit in your soup.

The solution seems to be to offer the slave lots of company certificates that allow him to buy a large selection of goods from company approved stores and ensure there is lots of leisure time to keep them well rested if not indolent.

Edit: Follow On

The next question is who owns the company that issues the certificate and approves the store.  The answer, of course is the Government. And in a democratic society that is us.

But what if society no longer believes that the Government is them?

Which seems to bring us to the modern malaise afflicting western societies.  And with that dimming of the bright future offered by the west does that result in the loss of focus by the rest of the world?  Neither western philosophy, communism nor capitalism, has proved to be a sinecure for wealth so perhaps it is time to revert to the old standbys of clan and brigandry.
 
The goal of Bretton Woods was very simple, Harry Dexter White, acting in accordance with Franklin Roosevelt's grand strategic plan, intended to make the whole world independent of Sterling and the London banks.

FDR was convinced that imperialism was the direct cause of two monstrously destructive wars in as many generations. He set men like Stimson, Marshall and King to the task of defeating Germany and Japan,but he also set other men, including Henry Morgenthau, Jr. and Harry Dexter White, to the equally vital task of dismantling the imperial era and replacing it with a new, American dominated, socio-economic superstructure which he, Roosevelt, felt would be more likely to "keep the peace" for generations.
 
So am I observing unintended consequences? 

Or am I just on a ramble too far? It obviously wouldn't be the first time.  :nod:
 
With respect to the dismantling of the Imperial Era I think he was well behind the times because that era had begun to fade from the 1880s with the rise of the corporatist-socialist-fascist-communist era.  The era of the communards, Haymarket, the Internationals and Keir Hardie, of Rerum Novarum and Quadragessimo Anno.
 
My  :2c: ...

Roosevelt really, sincerely and for sound strategic reasons wanted no empires, not even his own quite substantial one (based on Philippines and the banana republics of Central America). Instead he ended up with two: a renewed American empire, in everything but name, and a Russian one, too. The Russian one fell apart ... as everything Russian tends to do. The Americans more or less pissed their empire away, a bit like soldiers on pay nights 50 years ago. They didn't want to do what was, is, necessary to maintain global social, economic and military dominance.
 
ERC and Kirkhill: excellent posts and discussion!

I  don't have your depth of knowledge on Bretton Woods and monetary issues, but I have read a fair bit on Roosevelt. I share the view that he was trying to bring about the final end of the "old" empires, but I'm not sure that he consciously meant to establish a US Empire, although that would certainly look like a likely end state of many of his actions.

I have even read (skeptically) that had Britain fallen, FDR intended to enact Manifest Destiny and roll the US border up to the North Pole. This seems a bit over the top to me.

I do also share a concern over the decline of active democratic processes, especially involvement by those Canadians under 30. What so much of the world struggles for, we not only take for granted but almost dismiss. I don't refer only to electoral participation, but to the ongoing trend in this country, by all parties, to centralize more and more power in Ottawa, thus weakening democracy. Disregard for, or subversion of, watchdog organizations is a part of this. 

Once  could argue that this particular Govt exemplifies that spirit, but it didn't start with them.
 
pbi said:
ERC and Kirkhill: excellent posts and discussion!

I  don't have your depth of knowledge on Bretton Woods and monetary issues, but I have read a fair bit on Roosevelt. I share the view that he was trying to bring about the final end of the "old" empires, but I'm not sure that he consciously meant to establish a US Empire, although that would certainly look like a likely end state of many of his actions.

I have even read (skeptically) that had Britain fallen, FDR intended to enact Manifest Destiny and roll the US border up to the North Pole. This seems a bit over the top to me.

I do also share a concern over the decline of active democratic processes, especially involvement by those Canadians under 30. What so much of the world struggles for, we not only take for granted but almost dismiss. I don't refer only to electoral participation, but to the ongoing trend in this country, by all parties, to centralize more and more power in Ottawa, thus weakening democracy. Disregard for, or subversion of, watchdog organizations is a part of this. 

Once  could argue that this particular Govt exemplifies that spirit, but it didn't start with them.

A good, general purpose look at Breton Woods is:

41RQalKCWPL.jpg

http://www.amazon.ca/The-Battle-Bretton-Woods-Maynard/dp/0691149097/ref=reader_auth_dp

You local library should have a copy.
 
Thanks ERC.

I figured you would have a ready reference.

Cheers.
 
Although the end result of WWII and Bretton Woods was an "American Empire", this was/is a commercial empire rather than a territorial and political empire. I see this more as the flowering of the Maritime System first created by the Dutch and Elizabethan English in the 1500's.

The fact that the Americans as a whole are not willing to do the hard work needed to keep things going isn't exactly a great thing, but the Maritime System is inherently flexible, and the "Anglosphere" nations which underpin the system are capable of doing a lot of the heavy lifting as well, with or without the Americans (although obviously keeping the system going with the Americans is immensely easier to do). After all, the English and Dutch used the flexibility of the Maritime System to stand off the immensely richer and more populous Spanish Empire during the 1500's (and earlier versions of the Maritime System allowed Athens to fight the Spartans and their Persian paymasters for decades, or the Serenìsima Repùblica Vèneta to remain competitive against the vastly larger Ottoman Empire for 200 years).

I believe that Stephen Harper understands this, and some of the foreign policy efforts such as entry into the TPP, the free trade pact with the EU and his historic hard line stance towards Israel as a bastion of liberal, free market democracy in the Middle East are all reflections of this. Each element in its own way and collectively are either natural outgrowths of the Maritime System or designed to support the sustainment and growth of the system.

If *we* were to expand the Maritime System to integrate "honorary" Anglosphere nations like the Netherlands and Japan, as well as India (which should probably be considered a "real" Anglosphere nation), then in the longer term *we* would have a much stronger and more flexible system, greater access to markets and resources and possibly a much brighter future as well.
 
Status
Not open for further replies.
Back
Top