Well, I must say that I am a little surprised that some of the turns this election has produced. Some are clear and some are quite subtle. Here are my thoughts on the election:
The Strategic MP; Chuck Cadman: This is the one that has got me thinking the most, and I haven't seen much about it so far in the media; maybe they'll wise up to it. A few squeakers in British Columbia finished up in the Conservatives favour, giving them 99 seats in the Commons. Chuck Cadman, ousted from the Conservative spot in a Surrey riding by another candidate signing up some "instant Conservatives" from his ethnic community, managed to show that alot of residents in his riding still believe in the importance of the term
representative in our
representative democracy. Good on them for voting for a candidate that will represent
them in Parliament instead of voting for what has become in recent times a party front man. Cadman has stated that he will poll his constituents to see what party, if any, they are interested in forming; with the way the seats turned out, Cadman can probably have the option of staying neutral and being a factor in the House. Either way, hopefully he has the stones to keep his word and stay free of a party or go with his constituants wishes, because I guarantee you all three parties would be willing to "buy" him.
Anyways, two big implications from this:
1: The NDP is not in the strategic position to offer an alliance to form a majority government. The Liberal 135 and the NDP 19 puts them at 154, one short of the majority government.
2: If the Conservatives and the Bloq decide to band together on a devolution of power agenda, they would sit at Conservative 99 and Bloq 54: 153, two short of the Majority vote.
3: Cadman, the swing guy can join his old Conservative Party to bring a Bloq/Conservative alliance up to 154, deadlocking Parliament at a 154:154 tie (assuming the NDP and the Libs get cozy). What happens with deadlock in Parliament votes anyways? Alternatively, he could be "bought" with a Cabinet position to bring an NDP/Liberal majority coalition up to the 155 seat critical mass. This theory may play out, or it may not; the fluidity of a minority government could send this entire theory to the scrap heap.
The Politics of a Minority Government: Or none of this could play out, with a very fluid politicking taking place in Ottawa. Either way, I think the results of this election have raised more questions then it has answered. For the most part, I am pleased with the results of the election, for I think the minority is the next best thing for Canada, as it should keep the government generally honest; we won't see the government voting to buy itself new jets for the Air Force to ferry Cabinet around in. If another big scandal breaks out, I can guarantee you a non-confidence vote will pop up. The only thing that worries me is, as McG pointed out, the presence of two leftist parties can drag the Liberals a little more to the left then we might want. Hopefully Martin's fiscal conservatism will bring him to work with the Conservatives
to some degree to keep things in order.
The Conservatives: Well, I think the Conservative Party results were the biggest political "premature ejaculation" I've seen in a while. Ambiguous polls and media reports start to point to some sort of a Conservative victory, next thing you know MacLeans has "Prime Minister Steven Harper?" on the front cover. I think the one guy on CBC was right when he said the Conservatives got a little too excited from preliminary data and started to set their expectations too high, setting themselves up for dissapointment. Nonetheless, they've done a good job patching together a strong opposition party in 6 months, and maybe this minority government will give Steven Harper some time to sort things out and flex his party for a bit before heading into the next election, which will almost certainly be before 2009. He does need to make an effort into getting into Atlantic Canada in Quebec and fixing the situations in BC and Ontario a bit before he can expect a majority.
The NDP: Well, I'm glad to say that they have been denied the kingmaker powers by only having 19 seats, one short of giving a Lib/NDP coalition 155 seats. We have a true minority government in play. Layton was losing in his riding for a while, raising doubts. His wife didn't make it. Typical blustering Jack made some speech about being important with his 24 projected seats, I wonder if he is smiling now with his not so strategic 19.
Bloq Quebecois: I must say, this is the other thing that bothered me about the election. A rise to pre-referendum levels in the
national government. This is basically a throw-away vote, where Quebecois say "we do not want to participate in the Federal government, so we are going to send Parti Quebecois lackeys to sit there". Unfortunately, they have kingmaker powers. Does this justify the need for a Triple-E senate? Yep.
Belinda: Won her seat, I'm still waiting for the Maxim photo spread. Is this Harper's heiress in the waiting, or can it lead to a nasty internal bit like Cretin/Martin.
Pratt: Gone, looks like we are getting a new boss (again)
Anne Mclellan: Again, she eeked her way into the Edmonton seat, beating out a fighter pilot who was winning until the final few ballots. It's too bad; I don't like her for some reason.
British Columbia: Talk about a bushwhacking on the Conservative Party, they clearly suffered a flank attack here. What used to be pretty much a lock up for western conservative parties for the last few elections turned into a free-for-all similar to Ontario. Maybe next time all the politicians will realize that there are 35 seats that are almost all up for grabs in lotusland.
The role of Backbenchers: Who are these people?: I think with the way the the seat distribution turned out, this may have a good effect on Canadian politics. First of all, every vote in Parliament is going to be needed, so no more arrogance of politicians skipping sessions because enough show up to pass the bills. Every vote counts, so it may give the party caucuses more strength because they know the value of their vote and can't be bullied by the party leader. This brings me to my second point. With the numbers sooo tight, we'll see where the real loyalties lie. What if the Conservatives and the Bloc decide they want to form a government and coax two or three Liberals across the floor with the tantalizing offer a Cabinet position. Everybody is going to have to keep an eye on the Machiavellian power plays that may begin to take shape in Ottawa.
Funniest Election Moment: It is a toss up between
real early poll figures that showed up for a while showing some young BQ guy with a Mike Commadoreish red mop top and goatee beating Paul Martin in his riding or the fact that for a while,
early poll results that gave the Marxist Leninist Party its spotlight by being in the lead in a riding. That party couldn't buy national coverage like that.
Those trusty polls:As a said in an earlier post today, the polls were off the mark and results were up in the air until the fat lady sang. Hey, what do you know, I was right. Makes one wonder about politicians shirking from supporting our allies in Iraq based from their expert poll advice. Voice of the nation my ass.
Anyways, this government may not last through the month, and we could be voting again, completely changing the political scenery (again). All in all, I am happy with our election results, as we have sent a message that we will not stand for the "friendly dictatorship" of another Liberal Majority.