Post election talk here....
- Thread starter McG
- Start date
- Reaction score
- 1
- Points
- 410
Still a few seats up for graps and if the Libs or NDP get them it is doubtful of a no confidence vote. But is a close as 1 or 2 seats.
R
R031button
Guest
It's actually two bad about Pratt, he introduced the revolutionary concept of spending money without nineteen commitees to DND, it was for the MGS, but still, it was a concept that had hope.
- Reaction score
- 9,224
- Points
- 1,260
Well, I must say that I am a little surprised that some of the turns this election has produced. Some are clear and some are quite subtle. Here are my thoughts on the election:
The Strategic MP; Chuck Cadman: This is the one that has got me thinking the most, and I haven't seen much about it so far in the media; maybe they'll wise up to it. A few squeakers in British Columbia finished up in the Conservatives favour, giving them 99 seats in the Commons. Chuck Cadman, ousted from the Conservative spot in a Surrey riding by another candidate signing up some "instant Conservatives" from his ethnic community, managed to show that alot of residents in his riding still believe in the importance of the term representative in our representative democracy. Good on them for voting for a candidate that will represent them in Parliament instead of voting for what has become in recent times a party front man. Cadman has stated that he will poll his constituents to see what party, if any, they are interested in forming; with the way the seats turned out, Cadman can probably have the option of staying neutral and being a factor in the House. Either way, hopefully he has the stones to keep his word and stay free of a party or go with his constituants wishes, because I guarantee you all three parties would be willing to "buy" him.
Anyways, two big implications from this:
1: The NDP is not in the strategic position to offer an alliance to form a majority government. The Liberal 135 and the NDP 19 puts them at 154, one short of the majority government.
2: If the Conservatives and the Bloq decide to band together on a devolution of power agenda, they would sit at Conservative 99 and Bloq 54: 153, two short of the Majority vote.
3: Cadman, the swing guy can join his old Conservative Party to bring a Bloq/Conservative alliance up to 154, deadlocking Parliament at a 154:154 tie (assuming the NDP and the Libs get cozy). What happens with deadlock in Parliament votes anyways? Alternatively, he could be "bought" with a Cabinet position to bring an NDP/Liberal majority coalition up to the 155 seat critical mass. This theory may play out, or it may not; the fluidity of a minority government could send this entire theory to the scrap heap.
The Politics of a Minority Government: Or none of this could play out, with a very fluid politicking taking place in Ottawa. Either way, I think the results of this election have raised more questions then it has answered. For the most part, I am pleased with the results of the election, for I think the minority is the next best thing for Canada, as it should keep the government generally honest; we won't see the government voting to buy itself new jets for the Air Force to ferry Cabinet around in. If another big scandal breaks out, I can guarantee you a non-confidence vote will pop up. The only thing that worries me is, as McG pointed out, the presence of two leftist parties can drag the Liberals a little more to the left then we might want. Hopefully Martin's fiscal conservatism will bring him to work with the Conservatives
to some degree to keep things in order.
The Conservatives: Well, I think the Conservative Party results were the biggest political "premature ejaculation" I've seen in a while. Ambiguous polls and media reports start to point to some sort of a Conservative victory, next thing you know MacLeans has "Prime Minister Steven Harper?" on the front cover. I think the one guy on CBC was right when he said the Conservatives got a little too excited from preliminary data and started to set their expectations too high, setting themselves up for dissapointment. Nonetheless, they've done a good job patching together a strong opposition party in 6 months, and maybe this minority government will give Steven Harper some time to sort things out and flex his party for a bit before heading into the next election, which will almost certainly be before 2009. He does need to make an effort into getting into Atlantic Canada in Quebec and fixing the situations in BC and Ontario a bit before he can expect a majority.
The NDP: Well, I'm glad to say that they have been denied the kingmaker powers by only having 19 seats, one short of giving a Lib/NDP coalition 155 seats. We have a true minority government in play. Layton was losing in his riding for a while, raising doubts. His wife didn't make it. Typical blustering Jack made some speech about being important with his 24 projected seats, I wonder if he is smiling now with his not so strategic 19.
Bloq Quebecois: I must say, this is the other thing that bothered me about the election. A rise to pre-referendum levels in the national government. This is basically a throw-away vote, where Quebecois say "we do not want to participate in the Federal government, so we are going to send Parti Quebecois lackeys to sit there". Unfortunately, they have kingmaker powers. Does this justify the need for a Triple-E senate? Yep.
Belinda: Won her seat, I'm still waiting for the Maxim photo spread. Is this Harper's heiress in the waiting, or can it lead to a nasty internal bit like Cretin/Martin.
Pratt: Gone, looks like we are getting a new boss (again)
Anne Mclellan: Again, she eeked her way into the Edmonton seat, beating out a fighter pilot who was winning until the final few ballots. It's too bad; I don't like her for some reason.
British Columbia: Talk about a bushwhacking on the Conservative Party, they clearly suffered a flank attack here. What used to be pretty much a lock up for western conservative parties for the last few elections turned into a free-for-all similar to Ontario. Maybe next time all the politicians will realize that there are 35 seats that are almost all up for grabs in lotusland.
The role of Backbenchers: Who are these people?: I think with the way the the seat distribution turned out, this may have a good effect on Canadian politics. First of all, every vote in Parliament is going to be needed, so no more arrogance of politicians skipping sessions because enough show up to pass the bills. Every vote counts, so it may give the party caucuses more strength because they know the value of their vote and can't be bullied by the party leader. This brings me to my second point. With the numbers sooo tight, we'll see where the real loyalties lie. What if the Conservatives and the Bloc decide they want to form a government and coax two or three Liberals across the floor with the tantalizing offer a Cabinet position. Everybody is going to have to keep an eye on the Machiavellian power plays that may begin to take shape in Ottawa.
Funniest Election Moment: It is a toss up between real early poll figures that showed up for a while showing some young BQ guy with a Mike Commadoreish red mop top and goatee beating Paul Martin in his riding or the fact that for a while, early poll results that gave the Marxist Leninist Party its spotlight by being in the lead in a riding. That party couldn't buy national coverage like that.
Those trusty polls:As a said in an earlier post today, the polls were off the mark and results were up in the air until the fat lady sang. Hey, what do you know, I was right. Makes one wonder about politicians shirking from supporting our allies in Iraq based from their expert poll advice. Voice of the nation my ass.
Anyways, this government may not last through the month, and we could be voting again, completely changing the political scenery (again). All in all, I am happy with our election results, as we have sent a message that we will not stand for the "friendly dictatorship" of another Liberal Majority.
The Strategic MP; Chuck Cadman: This is the one that has got me thinking the most, and I haven't seen much about it so far in the media; maybe they'll wise up to it. A few squeakers in British Columbia finished up in the Conservatives favour, giving them 99 seats in the Commons. Chuck Cadman, ousted from the Conservative spot in a Surrey riding by another candidate signing up some "instant Conservatives" from his ethnic community, managed to show that alot of residents in his riding still believe in the importance of the term representative in our representative democracy. Good on them for voting for a candidate that will represent them in Parliament instead of voting for what has become in recent times a party front man. Cadman has stated that he will poll his constituents to see what party, if any, they are interested in forming; with the way the seats turned out, Cadman can probably have the option of staying neutral and being a factor in the House. Either way, hopefully he has the stones to keep his word and stay free of a party or go with his constituants wishes, because I guarantee you all three parties would be willing to "buy" him.
Anyways, two big implications from this:
1: The NDP is not in the strategic position to offer an alliance to form a majority government. The Liberal 135 and the NDP 19 puts them at 154, one short of the majority government.
2: If the Conservatives and the Bloq decide to band together on a devolution of power agenda, they would sit at Conservative 99 and Bloq 54: 153, two short of the Majority vote.
3: Cadman, the swing guy can join his old Conservative Party to bring a Bloq/Conservative alliance up to 154, deadlocking Parliament at a 154:154 tie (assuming the NDP and the Libs get cozy). What happens with deadlock in Parliament votes anyways? Alternatively, he could be "bought" with a Cabinet position to bring an NDP/Liberal majority coalition up to the 155 seat critical mass. This theory may play out, or it may not; the fluidity of a minority government could send this entire theory to the scrap heap.
The Politics of a Minority Government: Or none of this could play out, with a very fluid politicking taking place in Ottawa. Either way, I think the results of this election have raised more questions then it has answered. For the most part, I am pleased with the results of the election, for I think the minority is the next best thing for Canada, as it should keep the government generally honest; we won't see the government voting to buy itself new jets for the Air Force to ferry Cabinet around in. If another big scandal breaks out, I can guarantee you a non-confidence vote will pop up. The only thing that worries me is, as McG pointed out, the presence of two leftist parties can drag the Liberals a little more to the left then we might want. Hopefully Martin's fiscal conservatism will bring him to work with the Conservatives
to some degree to keep things in order.The Conservatives: Well, I think the Conservative Party results were the biggest political "premature ejaculation" I've seen in a while. Ambiguous polls and media reports start to point to some sort of a Conservative victory, next thing you know MacLeans has "Prime Minister Steven Harper?" on the front cover. I think the one guy on CBC was right when he said the Conservatives got a little too excited from preliminary data and started to set their expectations too high, setting themselves up for dissapointment. Nonetheless, they've done a good job patching together a strong opposition party in 6 months, and maybe this minority government will give Steven Harper some time to sort things out and flex his party for a bit before heading into the next election, which will almost certainly be before 2009. He does need to make an effort into getting into Atlantic Canada in Quebec and fixing the situations in BC and Ontario a bit before he can expect a majority.
The NDP: Well, I'm glad to say that they have been denied the kingmaker powers by only having 19 seats, one short of giving a Lib/NDP coalition 155 seats. We have a true minority government in play. Layton was losing in his riding for a while, raising doubts. His wife didn't make it. Typical blustering Jack made some speech about being important with his 24 projected seats, I wonder if he is smiling now with his not so strategic 19.
Bloq Quebecois: I must say, this is the other thing that bothered me about the election. A rise to pre-referendum levels in the national government. This is basically a throw-away vote, where Quebecois say "we do not want to participate in the Federal government, so we are going to send Parti Quebecois lackeys to sit there". Unfortunately, they have kingmaker powers. Does this justify the need for a Triple-E senate? Yep.
Belinda: Won her seat, I'm still waiting for the Maxim photo spread. Is this Harper's heiress in the waiting, or can it lead to a nasty internal bit like Cretin/Martin.
Pratt: Gone, looks like we are getting a new boss (again)
Anne Mclellan: Again, she eeked her way into the Edmonton seat, beating out a fighter pilot who was winning until the final few ballots. It's too bad; I don't like her for some reason.
British Columbia: Talk about a bushwhacking on the Conservative Party, they clearly suffered a flank attack here. What used to be pretty much a lock up for western conservative parties for the last few elections turned into a free-for-all similar to Ontario. Maybe next time all the politicians will realize that there are 35 seats that are almost all up for grabs in lotusland.
The role of Backbenchers: Who are these people?: I think with the way the the seat distribution turned out, this may have a good effect on Canadian politics. First of all, every vote in Parliament is going to be needed, so no more arrogance of politicians skipping sessions because enough show up to pass the bills. Every vote counts, so it may give the party caucuses more strength because they know the value of their vote and can't be bullied by the party leader. This brings me to my second point. With the numbers sooo tight, we'll see where the real loyalties lie. What if the Conservatives and the Bloc decide they want to form a government and coax two or three Liberals across the floor with the tantalizing offer a Cabinet position. Everybody is going to have to keep an eye on the Machiavellian power plays that may begin to take shape in Ottawa.
Funniest Election Moment: It is a toss up between real early poll figures that showed up for a while showing some young BQ guy with a Mike Commadoreish red mop top and goatee beating Paul Martin in his riding or the fact that for a while, early poll results that gave the Marxist Leninist Party its spotlight by being in the lead in a riding. That party couldn't buy national coverage like that.
Those trusty polls:As a said in an earlier post today, the polls were off the mark and results were up in the air until the fat lady sang. Hey, what do you know, I was right. Makes one wonder about politicians shirking from supporting our allies in Iraq based from their expert poll advice. Voice of the nation my ass.
Anyways, this government may not last through the month, and we could be voting again, completely changing the political scenery (again). All in all, I am happy with our election results, as we have sent a message that we will not stand for the "friendly dictatorship" of another Liberal Majority.
I have to say, when the results were projecting 25 NDP seats and Layton got up on stage to make his "we are the power" speech, I was not a happy camper. I was not pleased to be seeing a potential majority government with the Libs and NDPers getting friendly. Far too leftist, especially with Layton getting in there and making a point about it during his little speech (about getting Martin to "see things his way").
Now though, I'm grinning like a fool because 'ol Jackie boy ended up making himself looking like an ass, what with his 19-seats-does-not-equal-20 results. I'm generally feeling not too bad about the results. A minority government is just what the doctor ordered for this country. I'm disapointed that the Conservatives didn't win more seats, and that people in eastern Canada really seem to be complete asses for the most part (may as well stay in the comfort zone by knowing who your thief is... uh huh), but I'm really not surprised overall.
And Infanteer has some excellent insight into Cadman winning his riding. I shall follow that with great interest.
Now though, I'm grinning like a fool because 'ol Jackie boy ended up making himself looking like an ass, what with his 19-seats-does-not-equal-20 results. I'm generally feeling not too bad about the results. A minority government is just what the doctor ordered for this country. I'm disapointed that the Conservatives didn't win more seats, and that people in eastern Canada really seem to be complete asses for the most part (may as well stay in the comfort zone by knowing who your thief is... uh huh), but I'm really not surprised overall.
And Infanteer has some excellent insight into Cadman winning his riding. I shall follow that with great interest.
Lance Wiebe
Sr. Member
- Reaction score
- 6
- Points
- 230
I am so bummed.
Bummed that the liberal attack ads worked.
Bummed that Harper, obviously, is not yet trusted.
Bummed that Martin called an election even before the CPC could formulate policy.
Bummed that the Forces will once again get shafted.
But, I am not bummed by your report, Infanteer! Good work!
Bummed that the liberal attack ads worked.
Bummed that Harper, obviously, is not yet trusted.
Bummed that Martin called an election even before the CPC could formulate policy.
Bummed that the Forces will once again get shafted.
But, I am not bummed by your report, Infanteer! Good work!
- Reaction score
- 1
- Points
- 430
Excellent insight Infanteer. You summed it up nicely. I believe Stephen Harper was too antagonistic for his own good and as much as I would have liked the CPC get in I was not expecting them to. SH needs to be more diplomatic and when the Libs fold in a years time I hope Harper learns what not to do the next time around. In retrospect, I wonder if the CPC would have done better with Peter MacKay in charge?
- Reaction score
- 0
- Points
- 210
One question that's been circulating around in my head since I first read the results: with the House possibly splitting 154-154 between Lib/NDP and Con/BQ/Cadman, I am wondering who is going to be named Speaker of the House, and how that will affect the way this Pariliament functions? (Am I right in remembering that the Speaker only votes in the event of a tie?)
Lance Wiebe
Sr. Member
- Reaction score
- 6
- Points
- 230
Yes, the speaker only votes in the event of a tie.
An liberal/NDP coalition would total 154 seats, minus one for the speaker, so 153 seats.
A Bloc/conservative coalition would give 154 seats, ergo, no tie.
But, there are a bunch of seat re-counts, so the numbers may change.
Looks to me like the worst possible scenario anyway, a liberal/bloc coalition. Worst possible for Canada, anyway.......
An liberal/NDP coalition would total 154 seats, minus one for the speaker, so 153 seats.
A Bloc/conservative coalition would give 154 seats, ergo, no tie.
But, there are a bunch of seat re-counts, so the numbers may change.
Looks to me like the worst possible scenario anyway, a liberal/bloc coalition. Worst possible for Canada, anyway.......
- Reaction score
- 0
- Points
- 410
Canadian voters and our damn-ed battered wife syndrome.
We always take the jerk back when he promises to change, even if we're standing in the emergency room with a black eye.
In the end I think alot of people who might normally vote conservative, voted liberal because the Liberals did such an excellent job of vilifying Harper.
Well no one could call it a boring election..
We always take the jerk back when he promises to change, even if we're standing in the emergency room with a black eye.
In the end I think alot of people who might normally vote conservative, voted liberal because the Liberals did such an excellent job of vilifying Harper.
Well no one could call it a boring election..
C
CDNsig
Guest
:rage: All I can say is I'm glad I'm posted in Germany for four years; hopefully the Canadian public will get a good injection of common sense before I return, and finally throw these clowns out... If not, I sure hope I can get a civvie job with NATO over here, because Canada will be a bankrupt cesspool by the time I come home...
L
Limpy
Guest
I heard some Emails from people in Canada after the results had come in that really pissed me off. These people wanted to see a Conservative minority governnment. So you know what they do? They vote Liberal to balance the boat, thinking the Conservatives would win a majority government then Email the news channel to express they 're displeasment over the election results. Dumb, Dumb,Dumb.
- Reaction score
- 1
- Points
- 230
This the way democracy works. A majority of voters went with the Liberals and they now have the right to form the govt. The election of the speaker adds another dimension to the equation. The speaker is no longer appointed. Which party is willing to let one of its members stand.
I think Stehen Harper lost because some of his lose lipped colleagues open their yaps and reinforced the notion there was a hidden conservative agenda. I think it scared some Ontario voters back to the Liberals, maybe even enough to cost a few seats.The same could have happen to the BQ when Landry shot his mouth off about sovernty.
Honestly, minority govt work the best because consensus building is the name of the game. We don't want an election in 6 months to a year. Once this govt falls, voters will polarize, and either the Conservatives or Liberals will form a majority, with the BQ and NDP falling to the wayside. I all depends what happens in the next yr or two. Don't count on Martin pulling a Joe Clark.
Question is did Paul Martin win the election or Stepen Harper lose it.
I think Stehen Harper lost because some of his lose lipped colleagues open their yaps and reinforced the notion there was a hidden conservative agenda. I think it scared some Ontario voters back to the Liberals, maybe even enough to cost a few seats.The same could have happen to the BQ when Landry shot his mouth off about sovernty.
Honestly, minority govt work the best because consensus building is the name of the game. We don't want an election in 6 months to a year. Once this govt falls, voters will polarize, and either the Conservatives or Liberals will form a majority, with the BQ and NDP falling to the wayside. I all depends what happens in the next yr or two. Don't count on Martin pulling a Joe Clark.
Question is did Paul Martin win the election or Stepen Harper lose it.
- Reaction score
- 0
- Points
- 210
Just to add on to what people were saying about the liberals demonizing Stephen Harper, the most profound attacks on Harper and his party came from within, all the loud mouths from within the party played right into the liberals hands, especially with the comments Randy White made that were aired only a few days before the election, this may have been a big factor in Ontarios desicion to stay liberal. Who knows, if the Conservatives didnt shoot themselves in the foot many times we may have seen a conservative gov't. But all those political analysts on tv are saying that this election didnt really matter, its the next election that is really going to be the big one, are the people going to want another liberal majority or will the conservatives shape up and get a gov't of their own. Go Tories! 
McG
Army.ca Legend
- Reaction score
- 2,369
- Points
- 1,160
[quote author=ALLISON DUNFIELD]
Martin says he has stable minority government
Globe and Mail Update
Prime Minister Paul Martin said Tuesday he believes he has the confidence to lead a "stable" minority government, as the Liberal Leader looks to rebuild his cabinet while keeping his inner circle intact.
"This is not a majority government. This is what I believe to be a very stable but a minority government," Mr. Martin said in a post-election news conference in Ottawa. He said he would not pursue any formal coalition with the NDP, although there would be issues where the two parties could work together.
...
Mr. Martin said he still does have fundamental disagreements with Mr. Layton over some issues including raising taxes, but said he believes he did receive a mandate from Canadians over issues that the Liberals campaigned on and planned to govern based on the Liberal platform.
Mr. Martin said he believed he would be in a good position to govern because his party ran on a campaign with health care as its No. 1 concern, and the other political parties also set health as one of their concerns or priorities.
...
Mr. Martin also said that Bloc Québécois Leader Gilles Duceppe has confirmed that the Quebec sovereignty issue is back on the table after sweeping Quebec mostly from the Liberals.
[/quote]
Final numbers:
Martin says he has stable minority government
Globe and Mail Update
Prime Minister Paul Martin said Tuesday he believes he has the confidence to lead a "stable" minority government, as the Liberal Leader looks to rebuild his cabinet while keeping his inner circle intact.
"This is not a majority government. This is what I believe to be a very stable but a minority government," Mr. Martin said in a post-election news conference in Ottawa. He said he would not pursue any formal coalition with the NDP, although there would be issues where the two parties could work together.
...
Mr. Martin said he still does have fundamental disagreements with Mr. Layton over some issues including raising taxes, but said he believes he did receive a mandate from Canadians over issues that the Liberals campaigned on and planned to govern based on the Liberal platform.
Mr. Martin said he believed he would be in a good position to govern because his party ran on a campaign with health care as its No. 1 concern, and the other political parties also set health as one of their concerns or priorities.
...
Mr. Martin also said that Bloc Québécois Leader Gilles Duceppe has confirmed that the Quebec sovereignty issue is back on the table after sweeping Quebec mostly from the Liberals.
[/quote]
Final numbers:
| Liberal | 135 |
| Conservative | 99 |
| NDP | 19 |
| Bloc | 54 |
| Independant | 1 |
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