Trudeau Popularity - or not (various polling, etc.)

[Remius]

Best case scenario for the CPC is for Trudeau to stay on. Best case scenario is for the LPC is for Trudeau to step down.

In either case, the CPC will still be leading in the polls.

 

[brihard]

Best case scenario for the CPC is for Trudeau to stay on. Best case scenario is for the LPC is for Trudeau to step down.

In either case, the CPC will still be leading in the polls.

Yup, only good LPC play is try to stall an election as long as possible, and select a new leader who can make enough of the right noises to hold CPC to a minority.

I’m not saying that’s at all likely to happen. Just that it’s probably what they see as their best bet out of bad options.

 

[PuckChaser]

Y

Yup, only good LPC play is try to stall an election as long as possible, and select a new leader who can make enough of the right noises to hold CPC to a minority.

I’m not saying that’s at all likely to happen. Just that it’s probably what they see as their best bet out of bad options.

If they drag out a leadership race over 3-4 months they'll turn into a minivan party after the next election.

 

[rmc_wannabe]

If they drag out a leadership race over 3-4 months they'll turn into a minivan party after the next election.

Which is why I suspect the 6 hour caucus meeting is going to be more of a hash out for choosing a replacement leader than a primer for a long, drawn out leadership race.

They know they're about to lose confidence of the house. They know that prorogation is very much not guaranteed. They know Canadians want an election. They know that a Trump presidency is weeks away and whomever it is that is at the helm needs to be cemented in a good start position for Canada.

Time and tide, etc.

 

[Halifax Tar]

What next? He’ll be invited to remain as interim leader, while a long drawn out leadership campaign is kicked off while Parliament remains prorogued…which some/many may consider it as the political equivalent of walking through a minefield following behind a party intern who thinks their serving the best interests of the party and will be rewarded richly by the backroom elites, and of the intern blows up (ie. causes worsening numbers in the polls) then they get replaced with another intern, and so on, and so on…

Yup, only good LPC play is try to stall an election as long as possible, and select a new leader who can make enough of the right noises to hold CPC to a minority.

I’m not saying that’s at all likely to happen. Just that it’s probably what they see as their best bet out of bad options.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1876131029116768676

Is that true ?

If so they would have to get their poop in order by then, no ?

 

[Halifax Tar]

From Mr. Coyne

https://twitter.com/x/status/1876161372003738029

 

[Remius]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1876131029116768676

Is that true ?

If so they would have to get their poop in order by then, no ?

Not quite. The government can just request special warrants to continue business without a budget.

Normally used during elections but it has been used in other instances like prorogation. To much criticism I will add.

 

[The Bread Guy]

The difference between the Liberal caucus and the Conservative caucus is that the former wants Trudeau out as PM and is in eastern Canada, while the latter is in western Canada.

But the most of the Conservative caucus would also likely love Trudeau to stay on and run, so there’s the slightest of Venn diagram overlaps, no?

 

[Rifleman62]

That's all Canada needs. Another Millionaire as PM, no matter how qualified Carney is.

 

[ueo]

Yup, only good LPC play is try to stall an election as long as possible, and select a new leader who can make enough of the right noises to hold CPC to a minority.

I’m not saying that’s at all likely to happen. Just that it’s probably what they see as their best bet out of bad options.

Didn't Kamala try that? Just sayin'

 

[Remius]

That's all Canada needs. Another Millionaire as PM, no matter how qualified Carney is.

PP is currently a millionaire as well so we are getting one again, like it or not.

 

[SeaKingTacco]

PP is currently a millionaire as well so we are getting one again, like it or not.

A millionaire in Canada is very low bar.

Own a house free and clear? You are probably a millionaire.

 

[Remius]

A millionaire in Canada is very low bar.

Own a house free and clear? You are probably a millionaire.

It is. His real estate investments, salary, subsidies etc and other ventures likely puts him quite a step above that though.

So yes we’ll likely be getting a millionaire if we assume the CPC will win.

 

[SeaKingTacco]

It is. His real estate investments, salary, subsidies etc and other ventures likely puts him quite a step above that though.

So yes we’ll likely be getting a millionaire if we assume the CPC will win.

Absolutely.

Just pointing out that using millionaire as an insult catches an awful lot of people- to the point where I very much doubt that there are many MPs who are not “millionaires”.

 

[Quirky]

From Mr. Coyne

https://twitter.com/x/status/1876161372003738029

If Trudeau steps aside, don't we have a deputy?

Oh wait.

 

[dimsum]

If Trudeau steps aside, don't we have a deputy?

Oh wait.

There weren’t always deputy PMs.

 

[dimsum]

https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/trudeau-news-conference-1.7423680

Announcement to be made 1045 EST

 

[SeaKingTacco]

Deputy Prime Minister is not a required position in our system of Government. We go back and forth across the decades on whether the PM appoints one, or not.

My feeling is that a Deputy PM is unnecessary. If the PM is unable/unwilling to command the confidence of caucus, it is up to caucus to find a new PM. The Liberals have discovered (to their horror) that having a Party Leader with a “no fire” clause was a spectacularly stupid idea.

 

[Kirkhill]

Not quite. The government can just request special warrants to continue business without a budget.

Normally used during elections but it has been used in other instances like prorogation. To much criticism I will add.

Ship money was a tax of medieval origin levied intermittently in the Kingdom of England until the middle of the 17th century. Assessed typically on the inhabitants of coastal areas of England, it was one of several taxes that English monarchs could levy by prerogative without the approval of Parliament. The attempt of King Charles I from 1634 onwards to levy ship money during peacetime and extend it to the inland counties of England without parliamentary approval provoked fierce resistance, and was one of the grievances of the English propertied class in the lead-up to the English Civil War.

Ship money - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

NB - Charles I is often criticized for levying this tax but

Barbary Pirates and English Slaves

For over 300 years, the coastlines of the English Channel and south west of England were at the mercy of Barbary pirates. Men, women and children were kidnapped to be sold as slaves...

www.historic-uk.com

But being taken slave was only a risk to the coastal towns and shipping. No concern of the inland counties.

....

Politics and spin are not new. But I tend to think that running government by warrant could be as popular as the first Charles's Ship Money.

....

Tangent: Is Charles of Canada I (Canadian), III (British) or X (French)?

 

[Kirkhill]

But the most of the Conservative caucus would also likely love Trudeau to stay on and run, so there’s the slightest of Venn diagram overlaps, no?

The continuing problem of a party system imposed on an institution designed for individual responsibility.

As I have noted before (along with others), it is the Prime Minister who has to demonstrate to the Governor General that he or she personally has the confidence of enough members of the house of commons to form and sustain an effective government.